HSI1! trade ideas
Monday's opening will have a lot to say
Gap through 24500 and there will be no looking back. No Gap may provide great opportunity to go short around 26k.
$HSI - Hang Seng Futures Very Bearish$AAPL $SPY $QQQ $NQ_F -- $HSI_F The hang seng futures daily chart is still extremely bearish. It recently restested the neckline of a previously broken down H&S and rejected hard. As you can see from the chart its also in a clear bear flag that is likely to break down very soon
HSII don’t think it’s a breakout for HSI, rather a stimulus from the HK Nasdaq. My opinion is that HSI would fall back to 25185, and then there should be some big movements around that level.
Coming Down NicelyAfter the Buying Climax on 7th of July, brief distribution was carried out between 25950-26250.
Today saw a gap down and a selloff to first of the 4 unfilled gaps below which is acting as a support for time being.
Key resistance above now is 25850-950.
Move down so far appears to be in a channel formation.
Major chunk of distribution took place between 24500-300 since the low in March. Gap through that will signal the start of a markdown and accelerated move towards 20k and below.
Regards
Buying Climax and a Top?
Zigzagged with huge volume(see above) at the open, took out the stops above the very important level marked in Yesterday's post and has since been on the decline. We will know for sure in next few sessions but there is a good chance that Today marks the start of a significant decline which will take HSI to 20k and below if my analysis of distribution near the 24k level are correct.
First significant support is the gap at 25250-500. It can get real ugly in no time so trade carefully.
Update: SELL SELL SELL!!!
More on the post earlier Today.
HSI now has rallied beyond the point which i have marked for few weeks as the potential turning point. We may see brief distribution between 25950-26250 for couple of sessions and then move lower. I am to remain short until it breaks above 26800.
I am of a view that the rally so far this month after the passing of controversial security law is to trap the investors who were on the sidelines waiting to see how the market perceives the new law.
There is 10 weeks of distribution near 24k. If it reverses, 20k may come in no time.
And in China...Got rid of the overbought condition on MFI with a huge whipsaw before their market opened yesterday and recovered as soon as HS opened.
Looks like RSI is touching overbought now, but I don't think it drops until tomorrow afternoon.
Breaking up with HUGE VolumeToday saw a huge surge in volume in the morning hour. Double the usual.
Next few days are critical.
From a bullish POV, HSI is now breaking out of a 10 week range with a high volume but to predict whether it truly is a break to the top or a trap, it is important to know what happened within the range and how the market approached the breakout.
To my understanding, it was distribution(as i have been pointing out in my previous posts) and there is very little left in it.
2 possible scenarios to top out are as drawn on the chart. Triangle(Blue). Ending Diagonal(Orange).
Regards
Low Volume Consolidation and a break up.As updated on 16th, selloff last week from 25255 seemed uncharacteristic of a markdown. Gaps were quickly being filled and volume in the morning hour on 3 days following the top showed minimum enthusiasm from either side.
Too early to call but low volume consolidation may mean a developing triangle.
I am seeing something along the lines drawn at the chart. Keep an eye on S&P. It may coincide with S&P filling the gap from Feb or making new ATH.
If wrong, selloff should start in next couple of days. If so, refer to post "HSI Update" on Jun 13th for the anticipated path.
Regards
Bears. Wait some more.Very uncharacteristic of a mark down so far. Take profit, close half the position or move your SL to 24850 and let the market play itself out. If there is one more up move to go, it should be quick, ending with a buying climax.
HSI UpdateTop did come albeit 2 days late, important or not, we will know in next few days. Ideally, i would like to hv seen more distribution between 25k-26k but as pointed out in previous posts, there was high volume selling in the last move up from 22400 so it was bound to run out of gas real soon.
Pullbacks should be capped below 24500. Definitely dont want to see 24800 tested anytime soon. 22900-22400 will be key and if the markdown has started, this area needs to be quickly overcome perhaps with an acceleration gap.
I am not of a view that it is the start of deflationary crash as many expect and fear. NOT YET at least. Refer to my 23 May post, "Markdown or Shakeout?" linked below.
Quickly down to 20k and back to 25k-26k :D. One can dream.
Hang Seng Futures : Long ==> + % 4.97Hi.
Reference Length = 337 bars (56 1D Bars)
Percentage change of General Terminal in the process of 337 bars:
Parameters
Position Size : %1 (0.01)
Leverage : 50x
Risk/Reward Ratio : 3.00
Stop-Loss : 24556
Goal : 26210
NOTE : Must pay attention to the current internal factors of Hong Kong.
Therefore, stop-loss must be established.
Regards.
Top in place.Fed midweek so gotta give it some room. Expect it to accelerate below 24k.
For detailed thoughts on this short, kindly refer to previous posts.
Regards
The Honey Badger Market: $HSI1 time to take money off the tableThe last time I did a chart series was in mid-Mar warning of a bounce in the markets. Since then, markets have been on a tear and behaving somewhat like a honey badger, it doesn't care if there are still 1,000 daily Covid-19 deaths in the US, race riots and Trump reigniting the Sino-US trade wars. Maybe markets are optimistic there are only 5 more months of Trump-induced madness and you never bet against an election year and a Fed with a printing press.
Perhaps, maybe, if, but I prefer to let the weight of the evidence influence my course of action. So here goes...the Honey Badger Market chart fest!
Important TOP just ahead.
Didn't get the pullback before run for new highs as anticipated in the last analysis but on the flip side it means very little left to distribute. A pullback would have meant more to distribute above but now it looks like a quick up and back down.
We have 7 weeks of distribution mainly between 23750 - 24250(See previous posts)
Without volume, the last few days may seem like a start of a strong uptrend but zoom in and it appears very much like a SL hunt. Trends can't start without first accumulation/distribution and i see very little accumulation below for it to keep going for long.
Initial plan was to go short at 25300-500 but not sure if we will get there so i will look for reversal signs as soon as it gets above 24800. Target 20500 - 20000.
Some news will follow real soon as always but markets only move when those who control them are ready to move.
