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HSI1! trade ideas

Post Fed. HSI Super BearishRallied briefly but as anticipated it was short lived and sold off from first resistance. We now have an inside day fake out on dailies and are very close to the key levels 24300-500. Acceleration gap through there will signal the start of mark down. With the amount of distribution, 20k should be minimum but its not just the last 3 months. It has been going on since late 2017(refer to my 23 May post, linked below). If you are short, hold onto this one. It can be very big.
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
Coming Down NicelyAfter the Buying Climax on 7th of July, brief distribution was carried out between 25950-26250. Today saw a gap down and a selloff to first of the 4 unfilled gaps below which is acting as a support for time being. Key resistance above now is 25850-950. Move down so far appears to be in a channel formation. Major chunk of distribution took place between 24500-300 since the low in March. Gap through that will signal the start of a markdown and accelerated move towards 20k and below. Regards
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
4
Buying Climax and a Top? Zigzagged with huge volume(see above) at the open, took out the stops above the very important level marked in Yesterday's post and has since been on the decline. We will know for sure in next few sessions but there is a good chance that Today marks the start of a significant decline which will take HSI to 20k and below if my analysis of distribution near the 24k level are correct. First significant support is the gap at 25250-500. It can get real ugly in no time so trade carefully.
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
Update: SELL SELL SELL!!! More on the post earlier Today. HSI now has rallied beyond the point which i have marked for few weeks as the potential turning point. We may see brief distribution between 25950-26250 for couple of sessions and then move lower. I am to remain short until it breaks above 26800. I am of a view that the rally so far this month after the passing of controversial security law is to trap the investors who were on the sidelines waiting to see how the market perceives the new law. There is 10 weeks of distribution near 24k. If it reverses, 20k may come in no time.
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
2
Breaking up with HUGE VolumeToday saw a huge surge in volume in the morning hour. Double the usual. Next few days are critical. From a bullish POV, HSI is now breaking out of a 10 week range with a high volume but to predict whether it truly is a break to the top or a trap, it is important to know what happened within the range and how the market approached the breakout. To my understanding, it was distribution(as i have been pointing out in my previous posts) and there is very little left in it. 2 possible scenarios to top out are as drawn on the chart. Triangle(Blue). Ending Diagonal(Orange). Regards
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
Low Volume Consolidation and a break up.As updated on 16th, selloff last week from 25255 seemed uncharacteristic of a markdown. Gaps were quickly being filled and volume in the morning hour on 3 days following the top showed minimum enthusiasm from either side. Too early to call but low volume consolidation may mean a developing triangle. I am seeing something along the lines drawn at the chart. Keep an eye on S&P. It may coincide with S&P filling the gap from Feb or making new ATH. If wrong, selloff should start in next couple of days. If so, refer to post "HSI Update" on Jun 13th for the anticipated path. Regards
HKEX:HSI1!
by Dec0der
HSI UpdateTop did come albeit 2 days late, important or not, we will know in next few days. Ideally, i would like to hv seen more distribution between 25k-26k but as pointed out in previous posts, there was high volume selling in the last move up from 22400 so it was bound to run out of gas real soon. Pullbacks should be capped below 24500. Definitely dont want to see 24800 tested anytime soon. 22900-22400 will be key and if the markdown has started, this area needs to be quickly overcome perhaps with an acceleration gap. I am not of a view that it is the start of deflationary crash as many expect and fear. NOT YET at least. Refer to my 23 May post, "Markdown or Shakeout?" linked below. Quickly down to 20k and back to 25k-26k :D. One can dream.
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der