HSI1! trade ideas
The Honey Badger Market: $HSI1 time to take money off the tableThe last time I did a chart series was in mid-Mar warning of a bounce in the markets. Since then, markets have been on a tear and behaving somewhat like a honey badger, it doesn't care if there are still 1,000 daily Covid-19 deaths in the US, race riots and Trump reigniting the Sino-US trade wars. Maybe markets are optimistic there are only 5 more months of Trump-induced madness and you never bet against an election year and a Fed with a printing press.
Perhaps, maybe, if, but I prefer to let the weight of the evidence influence my course of action. So here goes...the Honey Badger Market chart fest!
Important TOP just ahead.
Didn't get the pullback before run for new highs as anticipated in the last analysis but on the flip side it means very little left to distribute. A pullback would have meant more to distribute above but now it looks like a quick up and back down.
We have 7 weeks of distribution mainly between 23750 - 24250(See previous posts)
Without volume, the last few days may seem like a start of a strong uptrend but zoom in and it appears very much like a SL hunt. Trends can't start without first accumulation/distribution and i see very little accumulation below for it to keep going for long.
Initial plan was to go short at 25300-500 but not sure if we will get there so i will look for reversal signs as soon as it gets above 24800. Target 20500 - 20000.
Some news will follow real soon as always but markets only move when those who control them are ready to move.
Strong Head WindsWe did gap up and didn't fill, trapping the late sellers but high volume selling in this up move. Unlikely that accumulation below was enough to carry it to new HIGHS in one go.
It can come crashing down at any moment but if it can get to 25300-500, that will be a very good short opportunity.
Regards
Interesting Monday ahead
All set for a very interesting Monday's opening.
Channel support held on for whole week while the sellers kept up the pressure and are now just above the accumulation zone. Gap up will trap the sellers and may not fill in near term with price quickly marching towards 25k. Gap down will open the door towards first the gap at 21882 and then towards march low at 20968.
If Monday opens near the current prices then watch out for trap(First move usually being a trap)
Volume was high whenever price came back in the accumulation zone which is often the case prior to a significant move.
Short term = Neutral,
Medium Term = Bullish,
Long Term = Bearish.
HSI to extend downside for Fibonacci targetSimple chart, simple Fibonacci, simple target to the downside for the Fibonacci target.
MACD is support of the downdraft.
Apparently Trump is going to have a release on US actions, and surely will be returned with China’s response.
Trigger for downside there...
Markdown or shakeout?
Markets are controlled by very few. They manipulate as they please. They own everything. banks, hedge funds, media, governments. They are the culprits behind social unrest, Wars, Pandemics. No new law is passed without their approval. They have mastered the art of deceiving the masses and they are looking to further enslave the common. Big changes are on the way for which they will create global chaos the likes never seen before by mankind. Many things will be blamed as reasons. Do what they may but a Supreme power watches. Tyrants days are numbered.
Hang Seng OversoldLooks to me like this is going to be the determining factor for Tuesday open....
Hang Seng is oversold, I would expect it to bounce off support Sunday and Monday, which would mean a gap up Tuesday morning.
Of course, the virus thing is unpredictable and if China shuts everything down again we could see a double bottom. Not to mention they're trying to clamp down on Hong Kong which usually tanks the Hang Seng (it's the Hong Kong index after all), so there is the possibility that it goes severely oversold.
No Clear DirectionTurns out, Yesterday's original idea of selling at 24600 could have been a masterstroke.
On Daily, we have an inside day fakeout which favors more downside over the next couple of sessions.
Levels to watch for support
24120
23750-800
Gap at 23455
For resistance,
24250,
24360
24460.
I don't have any clear bias atm. Sidelined for now.
Thank you.
Resistance to be tested shortly (Revised)*Analysis are overrated. Timing entries/exits is the real essence of Trading.*
Resistance to be tested shortly?Details at the chart.
*Analysis are overrated. Timing entries/exits is the real essence of Trading.*
Triangle most likelyBeautiful move by bulls crushing all bears in their path.
Odds greatly increase towards scenerio 1 (triangle) from the weekend analysis.
Best course of action as of now seems to be trading near the extremes back towards the value area.
Triangles can take some time. Be patient and always have a SL in place.
Thank you.
More Consolidation?Further to my earlier post, i was expecting a swift up and down move to take out some weak hands above 23900 and quickly come down but it has stalled just below and the consolidation around 23800 seems to imply that there may be more upside to come.
I will negate the earlier idea of going short above 23911 and instead look to sell around 24050-24120.
A short position here with a SL 23980 can be considered but i will wait for a better opportunity.
If you look at my weekend post, we are quickly back in the distribution zone(23750-24250) again so there may be more consolidation without any clear direction.
I will update if a more clear picture appears.
Thank you.
Beware ShortsDistribution zone between 23750 - 24250.
From my experience, Accumulation / Distribution is carried out in usually 2 or 3 phases in different zones. Prices will swing up and down to trap traders but will quickly come back into the zone for more consolidation until the big players are done.
My view is that we are not YET ready for the resumption of main trend down.
I see possible 3 scenarios playing out in coming days and weeks.
1. Triangle forming before the final push up.
2. Price moves down to fill the gap from 20 Apr at 23076 and comes back up.
3. Goes down further to take out the SL below 22561. Parallel channel support will come into play as well in this scenario.
For big picture, see the image below.
Thank you.
HSI | bearish 1-2-3 reversal pattern
the strong red bar that broken the wedge a few days ago signaled the start of 1-2-3 pattern
at point 3 today, it will be an strong engulfing pattern
it is also a false breakout of 1) horizontal resistance, 2) a long-term downward trendline and 3) 50 SMA
I have three indices in mind: NASDAQ > SP500 > HSI, and HSI is always the weakest candidate for short
China's failure to obey trade deal could be the fundamental catalyst for this selloff
Hang Seng futures (HSI1!) WXY patternHang Seng futures (HSI1!) is in WXY down cycle from the top shown on chart. It has completed X wave as triple three correction. Y wave is already started down as A wave.
HSI | a new downtrend has started
HSI was running a ascending wedge
the false breakout of four resistances confleunce resulted a selloff today
the golden timing to entry a short position was last Wednesday as I had mentioned
now I will the take half of the profit by the end of today
and move the stop loss to entry level for breakeven
also wait for a pullback (expected in this week) to add positions
HSI futures - false breakout setup a high risk-reward tradeHSI future forms a wedge making me bias to bearish.
Today, it breakouts the previous swing high, EMA50, and a mid-term downward trendline, and immediately drops below, expecting to close as a pinbar.
A classic false breakout setting with 5 conflence factors (also considering the fib retracement, and the long-term resistance).
A 2.5 risk-reward trade will be enter around the close.
HSI FUtures 4/20I assume Asian markets will fill the Gilead gap because US and European markets did. Then probably a bounce because the Chinese govt isn't going to let their market tank.... not without a fight at least.
Asian markets like to pump on Monday nights, we'll see what happens here shortly....
