#HSI1! - Short Setup on 1H TFClear downtrend on Hang seng Index on 1H TF. Waiting for a retracement to 0.382 Fib (18638) to trigger my short. Keeping stoploss above previous LH (18977). TP's mentioned in the chart. Good Luck.
HSI1! trade ideas
Hang Seng Index: Home Stretch 🏁The HSI has risen slightly since Friday, which we interpret as part of the internal substructure of the turquoise wave 4. We therefore expect further sell-offs. However, it is not far to our turquoise Target Zone between 18,341 and 17,899 points. Within this range, the index should place the low and turn upwards. Subsequently, a determined rise above the resistance at 19,772 points is on the agenda, which completes the magenta-colored wave (1). Accordingly, long positions could be opened within the Zone, with stops placed around 1% below the lower edge. Should the price fall significantly below the lower edge, this will set in motion our 38% probable alternative scenario, which implies further setbacks with the magenta wave alt.(ii).
HSI (hang seng index)It seems HSI will prepare for a bullish trend.
With technical analysis and checking the wave structure of the chart, the corrections ahead of it will probably be a buying opportunity
The reduction target is 16,500According to the Butterfly pattern, the Fibo perfectly converges the decline at the target of 16500. We also go down the channel where the lower border of the channel will be. All 3 parameters should be added together. We should reach it by October, there will be a great point for going to long.
HANG SENG This pull-back is the final buy opportunity.Hang Seng (HSI1!) has started a technical pull-back after getting rejected at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone. The minimum correction within this 4-month pattern has been -5.29%, so we are looking to buy after such a dip, potential 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (19700). This is the standard target on Inverse Head and Shoulders patterns.
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Hang Seng: Is a Turnaround Coming?The Hang Seng Index, with everything measured in Hong Kong Dollars rather than US Dollars, offers a distinct perspective within our analysis portfolio, focusing on the Hang Seng Index Futures contract. Starting with a weekly chart overview, we've identified that the initial cycle likely concluded in 2008, followed by a flat correction. Notably, the correction for Wave B exceeded 100%, suggesting that the drop towards Wave (A) level, or slightly lower, is plausible.
However, there's an alternative perspective that at Wave (A) already concluded Wave II, although the rapid temporal progression for such a wave suggests this is less likely. We anticipate further declines, yet it's critical to acknowledge a potential Wave (1) and Wave (2) formation at the 78.6% level. A drop below this point should lead us towards the HK$10,500 mark, aligning with our initial entry point around HK$11,300. Despite this, it's premature to issue a limit order given the ample time to observe developments.
Daily chart observations further indicate an expectation of a 5-wave structure from (B) to (C), which has been forming quite elegantly despite Wave ((iv)) intruding into Wave ((i)) territory. This necessitates our acceptance of the current count unless we opt for an interpretation that sees a completed Wave (2) at the point marked as Wave ((iii)).
Delving into the 4-hour details reveals a persistent downtrend from the onset of what's identified as Wave ((iv)). To reverse this trend, surpassing the invalidation zone would be crucial, suggesting a reconsideration for long positions. Until such a shift occurs, the bear flag's presence likely continues to restrain any significant upward movements in the market.
HANG SENG Bearish for the next 2 months.Hang Seng (HSI1!) is trading within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The dominant pattern is a Channel Down and as long as the 1D MA200 holds as a Resistance, we will continue selling every Lower High.
The structure of the pattern is similar to the 2021/22 Channel Down. Once the 1D MA50 breaks again, we will have a confirmed sell signal, targeting the bottom of the Channel Down at 14500.
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HSI prediction 24-Mar-2024My HSI prediction on 24-Mar-2024
The up trend is broken and expect HSI will go down
Hang Seng Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
>> USE PAGE DN to go DOWN To the LATEST Post <<
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2-25-2024
Strong Upside Momentum with wide GREEN TrapZone established for a while and GREEN UMVD continues. Class A Entry at the top of the TrapZone.
Bears Still Dominate the Hang SengMany investors currently firmly believe that the Chinese Hang Seng Index will soon rise. The economy in the Middle Kingdom is performing well in global comparison - so it can't be that the local stock market is so weak, right? Well, as you know, stock prices don't always have something to do with the actual state of the economy. That's why we remain pessimistic about the Hang Seng. We're opening a short position and targeting the range around 12,000 points. This may seem low, but quite achievable. We're setting a comparatively tight stop loss to optimize our risk-reward ratio.
Hang Seng 50 / Chinese Stock Market All-Time (1M) Long Idea Perfect reaction off the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level following a break of structure. I expect TP within 2 years maximum.
HSI: Already finished? 👀The HSI has risen sharply since Monday. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that the index is still working on a magenta-colored downward structure and is therefore not yet finished with its correction. Only after this five-part wave, and thus the turquoise-colored wave 3, has come to an end should things pick up a good bit - even if there is still further downside on a Long-term level. However, there is also a 33% probable alternative, which envisages a sustained rise and considers the past low to be the low of the green wave alt.(2). This scenario comes into effect if the resistance at 18 846 points is exceeded.
HSI vs SPXChina's Hang Seng index is -55% from the highs.
History doesn't repeat but often rhymes.
Russell Index also struggling.
Short setup, invalidation if Feb's monthly candle closes above ATH.
Will 2024 be a prosperous year for China?Will 2024 be a prosperous year for China?
After a period of strong gains and a close of the year near all-time highs, markets now seem to be facing a more tense climate with profit-taking on the world's major stock exchanges. Volatility has again become a major factor, with investors becoming more cautious and uncertain about possible interest rate cuts.
For our weekly appointment, we will focus on the most interesting stocks and futures contracts of the moment, as well as examine the general macroeconomic situation in the markets.
The stock of Moderna Inc (MRNA) has been performing excellently in the stock market. During the last session, Oppenheimer increased his recommendation from "market performance" to "outperformance." According to the analyst responsible for the stock, there will be numerous catalysts in the next two years that will drive the lab's growth. Moderna is expected to have as many as five products on the market by 2026.
It was a difficult week for shares of Mobileye Global Inc MBLY Group. The stock fell 25 percent on a sales warning and a rating cut by Wolfe Research from "Outperform" to "Peer Perform." The company, known for its autonomous driving technologies, issued a sales alert due to excess inventory at its major customers. Mobileye expects first-quarter revenues to decline 50 percent from a year earlier and has revised downward its forecast for the fourth quarter 2023.
In the energy market, oil prices posted a modest 1 percent growth on the back of rising tensions in the Middle East. Despite this, crude oil prices remain under pressure after a difficult 2023 in which they fell 10 percent. According to the latest monthly report from the U.S. Energy Agency, oil inventories declined by 5.5 million barrels but refined product inventories rose sharply due to weak U.S. consumption.
The industrial metals market, including copper, begins the year in decline in 2024. Copper prices in London fell below $8,400 per metric ton due to the strengthening dollar. Nickel also declined, influenced by increased production in Indonesia. Meanwhile, gold fell due to rising bond yields and fairly strong U.S. employment data. I recently wrote an article analyzing the forecast for the gold market, expecting a decline in the coming months.
The year 2023 was a year of recovery for stock markets, after a difficult period in 2022. Technology stocks rebounded strongly, while most financial markets in the West and Asia experienced a sustained recovery. The only exception was China, which struggled to rebound. In particular, the Hong Kong stock market recorded its fourth consecutive year of decline and was even outperformed by the Indian market in terms of capitalization. In 2024, we expect the Chinese revival to be a major theme to monitor, along with the start of the central banks' monetary easing cycle and the U.S. presidential election scheduled for November.
My focus is currently on the future Chinese Hang Seng Gen 2024 index, where I am applying my accumulation buying strategy. I am following the same strategy on the FISKER INC FSR stock.
Mini HSI Futures: Position for tactical rally on monetary easingOur View
We hold a favorable view of the Mini HSI Index Futures contract in the short-term on likely policy stimulus; but we prefer to wait out any short-term corrections before positioning for a near-term tactical rally.
Due to medium-term structural concerns and still-weak confidence among businesses and consumers, it will be a while before the market trades on economic and corporate fundamentals.
Key market drivers for 2024 include China’s growth trajectory (influenced by government stimulus, property sector woes, deflation risks), US interest rate trajectory, and geopolitics.
From a valuation perspective, the Hang Seng is trading at a Last 12 Mths P/E ratio of 8.7x, well below its 5Yr average of 11.3x. This is in contrast to a P/E ratio of 22.5x for the S&P 500.
Investors from mainland China have been a net buyer of HK stocks for the past 4 sessions, with data showing investors bought a net HKD 2.15bn of HK shares thru the stock connect program on 4th January.
We expect to see the PBOC delivering RRR and/or interest rate cuts in 2024. The PBOC recently weakened its yuan fixing by the most in over 6 months, signalling that policymakers may be shifting their focus from stabilizing the yuan to more monetary easing in a bid to revive growth.
Expressing Our View
We favour the hypothetical trade setup below in order to express our view.
Long Mini Hang Seng Index Futures:
The contract saw a bearish reversal from around the 17,050 level (orange line), which was a vital support level that was broken in early December, but now serves as a key support-turned-resistance level.
With a Fibonacci Retracement drawn from the December low on the 4-hourly chart, we prefer waiting out any short-term correction and taking entry near the 0.618 retracement level at 16,465. We set our target level at 17,050, and stop loss at the 0.786 retracement level around 16,250. This setup delivers a reward: risk ratio of 2.76x.
• Entry Level: 16,465
• Target Level: 17,050
• Stop Loss Level: 16, 250
• Profit at Target: 585 ticks x HKD 10
• Loss at Stop: 215 ticks x HKD 10
• Reward: Risk Ratio: 2.76x
HANG SENG Buy opportunity.Hang Seng (HSI1!) has been trading within a Channel Down throughout the whole year. As the rice hit its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) on December 11 and the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, we expect the new Bullish Leg towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend trend-line) and the to (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down.
The average rise within this pattern has been around 11% and based on that, we are targeting 17700.
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Bottom Today?The volume in the opening minutes suggests that HSI has or is about to bottom. Main accumulation was between 17k-18k.
Shakeout Incoming?Since my last post, Hsi did crawl up but was rejected strongly from 18400 and is back in the value area around 17500.
The way it is shaping up, i suspect that a strong shakeout is coming up in next few days in which HSI can drop all the way to 16k. If that happens, it will present a very good opportunity to get Long at the start of a possible multi month move UP.
To ride the fakeout, you can sell around 18k with SL above 15th Nov High. There is also a good chance that no fakeout happens and the move simply speeds up from here so manage your risk properly.
Hang Seng Index: Motivated! 💪The bulls were able to push the Hang Seng Index significantly higher on Friday, moving it further away from the yellow trading range between 17,424 and 15,571. However, we still expect the price to return to this area as part of the magenta wave (2) to make a lower low before the reversal occurs. That said, given the price action so far, we have to increase the probability of our alternative to 41%. In this case, the low of the magenta wave alt.(2) would already be in place and this scenario would come into play on a rise above the resistance at 18,898. However, it should be noted that our long-term expectation has already been fulfilled with the completion of the trading range. In both cases, there is considerable upside potential in the medium to long term. The price should clearly overcome the resistance at 20,899.
HSI in a bear market territoryFrom the peak at 22,792 in mid February this year, we are now seeing HSI entering into a bear market territory currently. Some said that the selling has been excessive and possibly a rebound is near the corner due to sellers' exhaustion.
Effective Sept 4 this year, we will see Country Garden being deleted from the HSI after missing payments on its bonds.
Since the epic of Evergrande declaring bankruptcy and shaken the world quite a bit, the Chinese government has been releasing "assuring words' of calming the economy and promised to shore up with stimulus packages. Here's the latest
The market is irrational and thus low prices can get lower and there will be investors who are afraid to catch a falling knife while some contrarians may view this as a good risk/reward ratio due to its excessive pessimistic view that many have on China market. Who's right and who's wrong? Only time will tell.
This property crisis has major consequences on consumers confidence. As I have mentioned before, majority of the Chinese place their savings/live savings on property as a major source of investments. This crisis will lead to them not wanting to pay up for their mortgages less to talk up buying new properties. This will affects the banks in China which are mainly state owned.
Plus, not announcing the updates on the youth unemployment only adds more anxiety to the people rather than eliminate their fear. When things are murky and uncertain, common sense will be to tighten your purse string and buy only the necessity and not spend on the want list.
With the continuous pressure coming from US on its tariffs and stringent trade policies, declining imports and exports, how can China then turn its attention towards building domestic market? Thus, I still hold the opinion that the CCP is still adopting a wait and see approach, releasing its piecemeal stimulus package to test the market.
Let's see how the market turns out later this week.
Going UPGood volume has arrived over the last 2 days. Not totally convinced that Long term bottom is in place but for next few days/weeks, HSI should make its way up towards the top of the parallel channel.
Resistance will come in at 17500, 18000, 18500 and 19000.
Expecting Oct 4 Low to Hold.Move down Today seems to be a breakout from the Triangle. I expect Oct 4 Low to hold and a strong move up towards 20k starts here.
