HSI MFI hit oversoldMFI hit oversold and now there's a gap above and a gap below. What's that mean? WHIPSAW, lol.
Closing my BABA puts this morning.
HSI1! trade ideas
HSI1! 2021 Oct 04 WeekHSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Oct 04 Week
Weekly: Average spread up bar closing near high, we see some strength returned.
Daily: Market temporarily resisted at 24620-24680. The narrow spreads on 01 Oct
due to start of the China holiday week.
H3: Higher lows observed. Bar A effort with little result = temporary weakness.
As price converges at the recent highs, wait for entry opportunity on signs of
strength.
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject)
Strategy for Long (Test and Support)
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Sep 27 WeekHSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Sep 27 Week
Rejection at about 24587, the 50% of the Feb 2016 - Jan 2018 uptrend provided short opportunity, besides rejection at previous H3 UHV bar high 24718.
Weekly: Down bar closing off low, a little demand, but no signs of strength. Weakness expected to continue.
Daily: Weakness. The last 2nd and 3rd bar appeared as bearish reversal, last bar is down bar closing at low.
H3: The most recent UHV bar A, buying effort but spread was narrow and market fell informed us of weakness.
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject)
Strategy for Long (Test and Support)
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI UpdateWeekend gap filled, but there's 2 below.
Tempting to short Chinese ADRs again, maybe with next week's puts
HSI UpdateIndicators are neutral but with the way the Chinese govt has been hammering businesses and coming up with new regs every weekend, I think it's probably gonna cycle to a new low instead of getting a bounce Monday.
Could go either way, no way to predict the Chinese govt. Short again when MFI gets overbought though, this isn't going to set a new high in the next decade, lol
HSI1! 2021 Sep 20 Week
HSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Sep 20 Week
Weakness played out last week and market was supported at about 24587, this is the 50% of the Feb 2016 - Jan 2018 uptrend.
If there is a breakdown and this becomes resistance, market would see more down side.
The last up move from 20 Aug - 08 Sep took more days and volume than the one before it while we see more ease of downward
movement.
Weekly: Wide spread down bar closing off low net change from previous down bar is narrow = some demand
Daily: Up bar closing off high = weakness
H3: The last wide spread UHV up bar is SOW. Market exited down channel. Will its demand line become resistance or will price
attempt to re-enter the channel?
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject)
Strategy for Long (Test and Support)
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels:
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
Hang Seng great convergenceThere ia a strong support trend line.
I have just opened a new position in this chinese bug index.
Good luck....!
HSI1! 2021 Sep 13 WeekHSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Sep 13 Week
Last week's preference to keep to long last week was fruitful.
Weekly: Up bar close below 50% of bar = weakness
and a third off the high = weakness.
Daily: Price is attempting to test recent high in the red zone, nothing meaningful yet on
daily chart.
H3: Market moving up, but shortening of thrust. Effort no result = weakness
Long will be at the channel's demand line or when price is
marked down to test previous UHV wide spread bars.
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject)
Strategy for Long (Test and Support)
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels:
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Sep 06 Week
HSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Sep 06 Week
Last week's preference to keep to long last week was fruitful.
Weekly: Up bar broke previous week's high but close below its high
and a third off the high = weakness.
Daily: Upthrust + weakness in the background = weakness
H4: Upthrust and supply came in = Weakness has appeared. However
no follow through on the UHV down bar at the moment, with 25748 acting
as immediate support.
Opportunity for short should price return to test the high.
Long will be at the channel's demand line or when price is
marked down to test previous UHV wide spread bars.
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject)
Strategy for Long (Test and Support)
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels:
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI MFI OversoldLooks like it gets a bounce Monday but Tuesday might be a down day. Remember Asia trades on Monday, so no play here.
Staying out of Chinese ADRs over the weekend.
HSI UpdateHSI hit overbought last night and rolled over. Also appeared to complete the 2 step corrective bounce.
I'd stay away from Chinese ADRs unless you're shorting them. Big bounce this week, bound to be some profit taking on Friday.
HSI1! 2021 Aug 30 Week
HSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Aug 30 Week
Last week's long preference worked well.
24306 was a previous high demand area, will buyers
come in to support should price reach there?
Daily: No Demand tiny spread, background = lower high.
Last 2nd and 3rd bar effort not result for the bears.
H4: 20 - 25 Aug we see the highest bullish volume emerged on
the background of this downtrend.
Also a spring in the 24780 - 26900 range.
Prefer to long on test of low.
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject)
Strategy for Long (Test and Support)
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels:
- 26900 - 26584
- 25955
- 25682
- 25330
- 24780
- 24306
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
Buyers to move. Is the triangle almost complete?For the flows here, buyers are clearly in control and have been over multiple decades - although since 2016 we have been inside a compression range which looks set to blow later in 2022. Strong support comes into play at 23,500 which should be enough to cap the outflows before continuation in a bull market towards a measure 40,000 breakout target.
↳ To the downside sellers are itching to test 23,500 and it looks within reach. It is dangerous to step in till we complete the moves, because the eye of the law is on it.
↳ After 23,500 comes the slingshot attempt towards 40,000, which will likely be a Q222 story, as will also reinstate the secular bull market and allow gains in confidence to play an important part in capital migration from West to East.
↳ To sum up, there is the following zig zag in play; 25,000 (current levels) -> 23,500 (strong support) -> 40,000 (strong resistance)
Of course on the fundamental side, the rocking of the cradle from the nanny state continues and we are entering into the final chapters of the handover. Naturally when choosing a map in equities you should take into account its elasticity with the currency and the threats it can deliver, highly recommend tracking the Chinese Yuan over the coming weeks and months for any signs of distress as we enter into strong support levels.
HSI1! 2021 Aug 23 WeekHSI!!
HSI1! 2021 Aug 23 Week
Last week's long levels become short levels market did not even try to test the immediate high.
Supply proved stronger. Market returned to test the UHV, and it looks like a spring has occured
Weekly: Wide Spread sown bar closing off lows = Demand has come in.
Daily: Wide spread down closing in middle, rejection of lower prices. Reduced bearish volume on the test.
H4: Demand has come in to support the market. Bearish effort no result, reduced bearish volume on test of previous low.
Prefer to long on test of low.
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject):
- 26900 - 26584
- 25814
Strategy for Long (Test and Support):
- 25400
- 24780
- 24306
- 23870
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
Hang Seng hung out to dryLost yesterday's support, looks to be headed for a double bottom, then probably a bounce. There could even be another leg down....
Overlay is just a possible scenario, sometimes it works, most times it's not perfect.
HSI1! 2021 Aug 16 WeekHSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Aug 16 Week
Gentle ascend, intermediate trend channel established.
High probability short trade from the upthrust.
Tested Historic UHV High from 27 Jul
Weekly: Up bar close above middle
(some strength, but supply still present)
Daily: Strength coming in
H4: Supply still present and Lower High
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject):
- 26900
- 26584
Strategy for Long (Test and Support):
- 25815
- 25560
- 24743 - 24930
- 26340 (ultimate confirmation if there is acceptance
at this price followed by strong bullish volume)
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI MFI oversoldYou guys know I'm bearish on Chinese ADRs but time to give this one a break. Short when it gets overbought again, lol
HSI & ESPLotted ES1! on the HSI1! chart.
I've noticed recently that China no longer impacts US futures.... looks like the Chinese quit trading US futures back in the last week of June.
2021 Aug 09 Week HSI1!
HSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Aug 09 Week
Last week's market:
= No follow through in breakout - Weakness
- Upthrust and returned to rotation zone = weakness
- Yet to test the Historic UHV from 27 Jul
- Market in 650pt rotation (grey box)
Monthly = UHV wide spread down bar closing off low (Change in behavior takes time)
Weekly = Potential demand, close on middle 26042
Daily: No result from Reversal1. Last bar closing off low, no sign of strength yet
H4: Supply still present. (Weakness appears on Up bars)
Immediate Resistance 26340 - 26483
Intermediate support 25560 - 25650
Strategy:
1) Price reaction off Red/Green Zones
2) Price reaction off boundary of rotation zone (grey box)
HSI hit overboughthit overbought on RSI but there's a chance it goes for the gap fill.
Might have to short Chinese ADRs Friday if it does.
Hang Seng Index Futures at Key Inflection Point, Top to Resume?After tumbling recently, Hang Seng Futures are back to retesting a former trendline from 2020 as new resistance.
This is also around the often pivotal 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 26078.
The near-term 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) still offer a downside bias, potentially acting as key resistance in the event prices materially push higher.
Otherwise, downtrend resumption entails clearing key support, which seems to be the 78.6% level at 24708, as the index flirts with bear market territory.
HSI1!
