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MHI1! trade ideas

China's 5Y LPR remains unchanged, what does this meanOn August 21st, the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was lowered from 3.55% to 3.45%, while the 5-year LPR remained at 4.20%. On August 15th, the Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) rate was lowered by 15 basis points (bp). The market had anticipated a 15 bp reduction in the 1-year LPR rate and a 20 bp reduction in the 5-year LPR rate. However, there isn't a clear correlation between the 5Y and 1Y LPR. The unchanged 5-year LPR rate might imply that the expectations for a rapid and significant rebound in the real estate market in the second half of the year have been erased. A notable observation is that when clear signals of real estate stimulus policies are released, the reduction in the 5-year LPR rate tends to be substantial. Conversely, when real estate stimulus policy signals weaken, the reduction in the 5-year LPR rate falls short of expectations. By keeping the 5-year LPR rate unchanged, it indicates that, under the overarching trend and context of a downward shift in the real estate market, the policy emphasis is not on stimulating new real estate sales demand. After all, the future of China's real estate will experience a trend distinct from the past three decades, and both supply and demand will gradually transition to a lower level. Whether it's the early repayment of residential loans by residents or the exposure of local debt pressures, they are both triggered by the decline in real estate sales, and debt pressures are transmitted step by step through financing channels. Compared to policies that stimulate the demand side, the main policy focus is on controlling debt pressures on the supply side. Mitigating the debt pressure triggered by the decline in real estate sales is the current policy priority. The current situation still involves a process of interest rate centralization, and there is still room for downward adjustments in benchmark deposit and lending rates. The main breakthrough points for alleviating debt pressures lie in two areas: easing household debt pressures and resolving local debt risks. Both of these key actions are closely related to the adjustment of benchmark deposit and lending rates.
HKEX:HSI1!
by TraderXR
China's CPI effectIn July 2023, the year-on-year decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for residents in China was 0.3%, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers in China showed a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%. The cyclical fluctuations in commodity prices similarly affect the year-on-year analysis of PPI, while the significance of the month-on-month change might be more important. Excluding base effects, the real economic scenario depicted by July's prices indicates a strong demand for services and lower-than-expected industrial production. Amidst the backdrop of strong overseas commodity prices, July's domestic PPI continued to decline month-on-month, reflecting the persistently weak pattern of actual industrial production demand. Looking at different industries, the prices in oil and gas extraction, nonferrous metal, and smelting and processing industries shifted from decline to increase month-on-month due to the impact of rising international oil and nonferrous metal prices. However, industries more reflective of domestic industrial production demand, such as coal maintained negative growth month-on-month, contributing to the negative PPI reading. This aligns with the weak construction industry PMI data for July. In downstream industries, computer manufacturing and smart consumer equipment manufacturing recorded month-on-month increases, indirectly verifying the resilience of China's middle and high-end manufacturing exports. Recent export research indicates that some companies still have confidence in overseas demand and their competitive advantages for the second half of the year, and the negative impact of trade frictions on exports is gradually diminishing As expected, the year-on-year inflection point for PPI occurred in July, indicating a potential price increase for industrial products. Historical data show that PPI inflection points generally lead those of industrial product inventories, and PPI trends align with the trends in inventory cycles, which indicates a strong indication of inventory cycles. Experience suggests that during the phases of passive destocking and active restocking, industries tend to experience an upward trend in industrial production and profitability. The market expects that after the bottom of the inventory cycle, the economy will undergo a cyclical recovery. However, there are two distinct features of this inventory cycle. First, the elasticity of real demand during this inventory cycle is limited this year since China's inventory cycle is essentially a shadow of the real estate cycle. Second, PPI as an indicator of domestic industrial demand might experience a phase of "failure".
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by TraderXR
Bullish HSI Can Be Supportive For The KiwiNice bounce on HSI, looks like a bottom in 2022 because of an impulse up, now right shoulder at support. China is doing everything to support its economy, but with high rates in other major countries, they just cannot pick up that easily. However, when economy in China will really start picking up that’s when commodity currencies like AUD and NZD can benefit. Also, recently China announced that they are in trade talks with New Zealand, so maybe NZD has also nice upside potential especially vs USD, now when FED can be close to end the hiking policy. Looking at NZDUSD chart, we can see slow price action and corrective wave structure after an impulse from the lows, which indicates for more gains in upcoming weeks/months.
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by ew-forecast
Daytrade Review on the Hang Seng IndexI small trade today on the Hang Seng Index that turned out to be quick and simple with little to no pressure from the entry. Could have been a better exit but all up it was a good start to the day. I will explain the price action for the Entry and the reasoning for the trade coming into the start of the session. ** If you like the content then take a look at my WEBSITE in the profile to get more daily ideas and learning material ** ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. **
HKEX:HSI1!Education
by TradeTheStructure
Maximum Pessimism - Blood on street - what do you do ?There are more negative and pessimistic news about China every day in the papers, online and social media. Remember, be it print or clicks , the more viewerships , the more money they can make (capturing your data and then selling advertisments or relevant news back to you) So who wants to hear positive and good news huh? It is boring and unsensational! China is now brutally being punished by Europe, US and Japan on the chips market, cutting them off from exporting the advanced materials that China needs. Of course, the business owners like Nvidia is unhappy as China remains one of its core customers. Post Pandemic recovery? People have forgotten after the 3 years lockdown, it takes time to put things in order. Many small business operators have closed shops, bankruptcies are at all time high including the big boys (Walmart and Carrefour closing many outlets in China). Domestic demand is not back yet to its pre- Covid days. Covid-19 has disrupted the world economy , more so for China as it stays locked down much longer than most countries. If it takes 21 days to make a new habit, think 3 years. It has structurally altered many consumers' habits ,being forced to stay at home. Their mindset has changed, their risk appetite is different being more conservative and cautious than before, worrying if a similar or worse pandemic might occur again. A weakened yuan , a badly battered stock market which left a distaste in many analyst downgrading China economy and losing confidence. The property market still remains in a doldrum with many smaller developers hanging carrots to lure customers. China is so fragmented that just looking at the Tier 1 cities performance is not conclusive as this are highly dense populated cities with great infrastructures , amenities and opportunities that continue to attract the lower tiers to come venture into. The investment climate seems gloomy at the moment for China and other than Russia, it seems irrational to invest in China now. I do not hold a magic wane and able to predict the future of China but I believe in the story of China for the long haul. I have long advocate the importance of diversification and that includes geographically, by sector, by asset class, by time horizon and investment objectives. I hope in the next coming weeks or months, there will be some economic stimulus by the CCP to shore up the economy. It is important to note that not all sectors will grow strongly as CCP will continue to invest in places that are of strategic importance to its country, protecting its national security and achieving common prosperity for its people
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by dchua1969
2
Hang Seng: Thumbed 👍Exemplarily, Hang Seng has thumbed our target zone and turned upwards from there. Thus, we classify wave 2 in turquoise as complete. Now, wave 3 in turquoise should carry Hang Seng above the resistance at 21 056 points. The counter movement of wave 4 in turquoise should then push the index back toward this mark before the ascent can be resumed once again. However, there is a 39% chance that Hang Seng could interrupt the current upwards movement, shifting southwards to develop the new low of wave alt.2 in turquoise, which should then be established before the support at 17 948 points.
HKEX:HSI1!
by MarketIntel
HANG SENG: Inverted Head and Shoulders aiming for the 2021 High.Hang Seng is supported on the 1W MA50 with technicals both on the 1D and 1W time-frames (RSI = 51.130, MACD = 75.500, ADX = 25.377) neutral. This shows the high accumulation effect that is taking place as the huge Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern (whose Head formed the October bottom) is near to complete the Right Shoulder. Even though there are several Resistances on the way to the February 2021 High (R4 = 31,160), Inverted Head and Shoulders patterns technically target Fibonacci 2.0 from the neckline and that is at 30,900, just a fraction under the 2021 High. The action now is a buy (TP = 30,900). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by InvestingScope
5
Hang Seng Index Volume and Price Action analysis - longThe Hang Seng Index shows a strong accumulation in the background along with a strong upward breakout. Before Friday's session and US labor market data to be released today, Hang Seng again showed strength and formed a re=accumulation range. The last re-accumulation zone becomes both a big support and a buying zone for today's session. Analysts expect good data from the US and big players seem to be setting the market for this data. With the background we have on this chart, only longs should be considered Follow for more market analyses! Regards VolumeDayTrader!
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by VolumeDayTrader
2
How to identify a TREND or RANGE market early in DaytradingTrading and Price Action can be broken down into tow simple terms...a 'range bound' market and a 'trend' market. Being able to identify the price action early is key to successful daytrading. In the video I discuss how I like to daytrade Indexes and especially how I look to identify a RANGE or a TREND market. As there really is only TWO WAYs to trade....ie/ reversion to the mean or continuation trading...it is important to identify the market conditions early to get on the right side of the market and take full advantage of a move up or down. I discuss my basic approach to trading and what I look for to identify the market conditions. I talk about my trading style and general entry criteria. Any comments or questions welcome below.
HKEX:HSI1!Education
by TradeTheStructure
HANG SENG BUYIncreasing confidence for global economic resilience in 2023. Global growth for 2023 has continued to improve. The U.S. has started the year with a degree of momentum, even if activity could wane as the year progresses. Chinese activity is bouncing back as the economy reopens, while the Eurozone is likely to benefit as energy prices have receded and headline inflation has slowed. While banking and financial sector strains have clouded the outlook to some extent, we ultimately believe authorities will do whatever is needed and will be successful in containing those difficulties. Against that backdrop, our upwardly revised forecast means we now expect the global economy to avoid recession this year.
HKEX:HSI1!
by thunderpips