Maximum Pessimism - Blood on street - what do you do ?There are more negative and pessimistic news about China every day in the papers, online and social media. Remember, be it print or clicks , the more viewerships , the more money they can make (capturing your data and then selling advertisments or relevant news back to you)
So who wants to hear positive and good news huh? It is boring and unsensational!
China is now brutally being punished by Europe, US and Japan on the chips market, cutting them off from exporting the advanced materials that China needs. Of course, the business owners like Nvidia is unhappy as China remains one of its core customers.
Post Pandemic recovery? People have forgotten after the 3 years lockdown, it takes time to put things in order. Many small business operators have closed shops, bankruptcies are at all time high including the big boys (Walmart and Carrefour closing many outlets in China). Domestic demand is not back yet to its pre- Covid days.
Covid-19 has disrupted the world economy , more so for China as it stays locked down much longer than most countries. If it takes 21 days to make a new habit, think 3 years. It has structurally altered many consumers' habits ,being forced to stay at home. Their mindset has changed, their risk appetite is different being more conservative and cautious than before, worrying if a similar or worse pandemic might occur again.
A weakened yuan , a badly battered stock market which left a distaste in many analyst downgrading China economy and losing confidence. The property market still remains in a doldrum with many smaller developers hanging carrots to lure customers.
China is so fragmented that just looking at the Tier 1 cities performance is not conclusive as this are highly dense populated cities with great infrastructures , amenities and opportunities that continue to attract the lower tiers to come venture into.
The investment climate seems gloomy at the moment for China and other than Russia, it seems irrational to invest in China now. I do not hold a magic wane and able to predict the future of China but I believe in the story of China for the long haul.
I have long advocate the importance of diversification and that includes geographically, by sector, by asset class, by time horizon and investment objectives.
I hope in the next coming weeks or months, there will be some economic stimulus by the CCP to shore up the economy. It is important to note that not all sectors will grow strongly as CCP will continue to invest in places that are of strategic importance to its country, protecting its national security and achieving common prosperity for its people
