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VNINDEX trade ideas

Long VN Index, Cheap for Good fundamentalVietnam economy has been quite strong so far with brightening economic outlook ahead (GDP growth for 2023 could be > +6%y/y). However, recently the stock market ( HOSE:VNINDEX ) has performed poorly which could be due to weak sentiments among local investors due to lots of rumors, stock/bond manipulation crackdown and fears of further monetary tightening from the SBV (central bank). Margin calls for some players esp. foreign investors could be one of the factors that affected VN Index as well. So with the current valuation based on P/E multiple or Forward P/E, VN Index remains quite attractive (P/E and Forward P/E are near -2SD level over the last 10 years). Additionally, VN Index's EPS forecasts continue to rise higher which should signal a good upside potential should such EPS forecasts become materialized. Even -15% or -20% shock to EPS forecasts (based on previous episodes of Global recession, China hard landing and Trade war), VN Index should still offer at least 10%+ upside (using -1SD P/E multiple). Statistically, Long VN Index at oversold level (RSI < 20) did generate positive return for long-term investors e.g. +15%pa for 5 years holding period.
HOSE:VNINDEXLong
by electricalRide18697
VNINDEX - 1D - DROPHello all my subscribers. Today, I will express my idea about VNINDEX movement in next couple of weeks. 1. General: Price is still in downward trend line with lower following tops (red arrow). Bull also try to get their dominance but unsuccessful with lower following bottoms. Bear completely controls the market, proved by downward's slope. That is just basic analyst, it is not strong enough for making conclusion for a strong reduction movement. Therefore, I want to consider additional indicators. 2. Trend line: from 17 May 2022 to current time, bull tried to show its resistance but last effort was destroyed by "big red candle stick" at 06 July 2022. Many blind traders say that " JUST BEAR TRAP". This is a baseless perspective. My following analyst will prove that this is not bear trap. 3. Candle stick pattern: at 15 July 2022, VNINDEX closed with inverted hammer. Beside, this candle stick just touched downward trend line and created long candle beard. The high probability that this is third lower top. 4. RSI: this is my favorite indicator, it always give me reliable signals about current fluctuation. Now, RSI is, moving 50 as proof that market is still in bear. 5. MACD: it shows us some positive considerations such as MACD line cut Signal line or histogram's slope is moving up. But it is not strong enough for reversal movement. Conclusion: There are two material considerations in my analyst, price broke down upward trend line and RSI is now under 50. In short-term, price also can make a small pull-back and create "dead cat bounce". Because of these reasons, I recommend that we should wait for VNINDEX reaches 946 for making next decision. Finally, I will show you same movement in the past. Please pay your attention to my drawing range box. Price broke down upward trend line created from 28 Jan 2021. At the same time, RSI was under 50. After that, price tried to make stretched movement but finally, a super strong reduction movement happen, from 1536 to 1170. These are all my considerations for VNINDEX. I hope that it will be useful for all of you. Feel free leave your feedbacks and questions.
HOSE:VNINDEX
by Viktortea
SEVEN GUILTS IN TRADING PSYCHOLOGY1. Confirmation Bias: People pay close attention to information that confirms their beliefs and ignores information that contradicts it. How to avoid: While preparing to execute the order, we try to find support reasons for the opposite direction. The second consideration can not be too careful. 2. The illusion of Control: The illusion of control is the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control events. It occurs when someone uses a lot of market indicators/TA's method and places the truth on as many as possible. How to avoid: Remember that "Simple is the best". The good-enough trading system on a simple level with a good-enough winning probability will help to exist in the full lying market. 3. Mental-Accounting Bias: The investor has 1000 USD initial capital and 200 USD profit. The psychology of investors usually tries to keep the capital of 1000 USD, while 200 USD will take away more risky investments with the thought that if they lose, they will only lose profits. However, in essence, 200 USD or 1000 USD are all our assets. How to avoid: - Convert the profit to hard assets, if the profit is enough big. - Withdraw the profit periodically, only trade with the initial capital. We can review and reinvest into the capital every month/year. 4. Recency Bias: People analyze a stock that has good fundamentals, and now has a low valuation, but the market trend over the last few weeks is down. Most of them will be more inclined to the negative side and think that this is no longer an attractive investment. However, with experienced analysts, they will see the other long-term factors and see the decline as a temporary correction, even an opportunity to buy shares cheaply. How to avoid: Let's see things from a wider perspective. 5. Herd Mentality: - FOMO: Fear of missing out when seeing nearby someone get a lot of money. - Be panicked when the market sharply decreases. How to avoid: - For short-term trading, be patient, do not chase the price. There are a lot of chances for the next trading. - For long-term trading, make out some major support areas, and early enter orders with sufficient volume in order to avoid FOMO. - For the problem of strongly competing for sales in the plunging market, stay away from illiquid assets. 6. Loss Aversion: Loss aversion refers to people’s tendency to prefer suffering huge losses with the expectation that the price will come back. How to avoid: Make a plan for managing the capital. Everything is just probability, don't hesitate to cut your losses when guessing wrong. Leave room for mistakes. 7. Overconfidence: The psychological problem occurs when an investor wins continuously, they will be more subjective and less disciplined. How to avoid: Always keep a balanced mind! For example, a good psychological investor usually set minimum and maximum profit targets by period (week, month, year). If the lowest goal hasn't been reached, confidence is superfluous. If the highest goal has been reached, the rest should be taken into account. Of course, goal setting must be consistent with the strategy and not overwhelming, it is impossible to set a 100% profit in a week.
HOSE:VNINDEXEducation
by vumaikhanh1991
149
VN-INDEX RECOVERYHello my subscribers, - I hope that all of you are fine. Within two weeks of April, VNINDEX dropped 17.40%, from 1536 to 1317. This movement is as nightmare for investors and traders. "What next ?". I believe that downtrend is slowing dow and turn to accumulation period because of these reasons: 1. RSI is under 30, it reflects that price is now in oversold area and it will be adjusted very soon. 2. Price is dropping to strong local support, from 120x-121x. Here, price's reaction will happen strongly. - Next movement: After dropping to 120x - 121x, reaction movement will running, price bounced back 141x - strong resistance in the past. If price can stand, uptrend movement will occur and price towards to higher level (1600-1700). But if price can not overcome 141x, a drop to deeper bottom (99x) will happen. Either situations, price will retest 120x-121x. Please keep patient and observe carefully price's action here. Feel free to leave ur comments and questions
HOSE:VNINDEX
by Viktortea