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C1! trade ideas

[CC] Cocoa bull run is over ?Following an explosive surge that propelled Cocoa ( NYSE:CC ) to the $1000 mark, the price is now encountering resistance around this significant psychological level. Observing this resistance, there's anticipation for a correction towards the area of interest defined by my TP zone. While a revisit to the $1000 level in the coming days is plausible, it's probable that we'll witness a corrective phase following this impressive bull run. The market sentiment suggests a potential pullback as the price encounters resistance and investors book profits. In summary, while the short-term outlook may involve another touch of the $1000 level, caution is warranted as a correction seems increasingly likely in the aftermath of this remarkable uptrend in Cocoa ( NYSE:CC ). Great Trade !
ICEUS:CC1!Short
by ArnoSG
CHARTOLOGY 101 --- 43 years in the makingThe bigger the pattern the bigger the consolidation the more explosive the move how about this Chart Porn? Cup and handle I expect the log tgt not only to be made but surpassed given yesterdays event's in #baltimore Yup Massive east coast supply chain disruptions to be expected Ports jammed Aviation fuel disruptions Major economic ripples could transpire form this the east coast is home to 120 million people I believe .. Wow Stock up on your Cadbury's and many other things ... :0
ICEUS:CC1!
by BallaJi
💰The #1 Commodity Market Watch📉🎢-- What you will hear in this video: -- 1-Learning how to trade commodities 2-Trend analysis 3-Support levels 4-Resistance levels 5-Market psychology -- And more... Watch this video to learn more -- **Disclaimer:** The information provided above or below is for educational and informational purposes only. -- It does not constitute financial advice, and trading always involves -- a risk of substantial losses, regardless of the margin levels -- used. Before engaging in any trading activities, it is crucial to -- conduct thorough research, consider your financial situation, -- and, if necessary, consult with a qualified financial advisor. Past -- performance is not indicative of future results, and market -- conditions can change rapidly. Trading decisions should be made -- based on careful analysis and consideration of individual -- circumstances. The user is solely responsible for any decisions made -- and should be aware of the inherent risks associated with trading in -- financial markets.
ICEUS:CC1!Education
by lubosi
2
Cocoa Boom! Prices soar by 60.88% in 54 WeeksCocoa has sustained a price escalation of the last 54 weeks marking a growth of 60.88%, after which a sideways range has formed. Cocoa futures reached a trading high of 6676 points, driven by inflation increases and the Federal Reserve's price tightening, which have caused this incredible upward push in the commodity. Most of the major chocolate companies in the market have increased the prices of their final products with cocoa components in view of the doubling of cocoa prices since last year. Hershey, Toblerone, Mondelez Int. Group (which includes Milka and Cadbury among others), Lindt & Sprungli, Circana and the Walmart supermarket chain, a benchmark for low prices, have decided to raise the cost of all their cocoa products, literally doubling their price. In the case of Hersey, its sales have fallen 6.6% since last year given the necessary price adjustment and prices are expected to continue to rise. Thousands of videos have been posted on the internet regarding the cost of these types of chocolates, which used to cost 50 cents, now cost more than $2. Many are trying to compensate for the rising cost of cocoa by increasing their efficiency in the forward purchasing strategy. It is very likely that the market for cocoa derivatives will be affected by a drift to a higher milk to cocoa ratio and variety of other lower cocoa products to compensate for these prices. The technical analysis shows an organized upward price construction since the beginning of February, crossing different price boundaries placing the value between 6676.00 and 5908 points. The current picture suggests a possible consolidation closer to highs in an area that suggests a narrowing at the top. Indicators such as the RSI at 52.91%, indicate a balance in the market, and the MACD showing a possible bullish crossover on volume that is not very strong suggests a possible consolidation to look for highs. However, the formation of a triple bell on the price indicator suggests a weighting towards the middle zone, which could indicate a possible bounce to test lower levels of the range before a continuation to the upside, so it could stretch its price adjustment if it dips to 5595 and subsequently bounce to the upside. Price is expected to break above the triple top and look for all-time highs at 6997 points. Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
CLong
by ActivTrades
[COCOA] Cacao timing to take the correctionCurrently, the PEPPERSTONE:COCOA (cacao) market has undergone a notable upside rally over recent days, culminating in a significant move towards the $6000 level. Today, we observed a precise hit of this key psychological level, followed by a clean rejection, prompting a short position. The primary objective now is to remain below this crucial $6000 level, aiming to capitalize on a potential correction in the recent upward surge. By maintaining short positions, we aim to capture the potential downside movement with a relatively small risk, yet the possibility of a substantial gain. Initially, the trade unfolded favorably, with the price action aligning with our short position. However, subsequent movement saw a retracement back towards the entry level, highlighting the need for vigilance and adaptability in response to evolving market conditions. As we await further price action, it's imperative to remain attentive to developments in the PEPPERSTONE:COCOA market. Tomorrow's movements will provide valuable insights into the durability of the recent rejection and the potential continuation or reversal of the prevailing trend. In navigating this trade, maintaining a disciplined approach and closely monitoring key levels and indicators will be crucial. While the potential for a significant win exists, it's essential to manage risk effectively and remain adaptable to changing market dynamics.
ICEUS:CC1!Short
by ArnoSG
1
75: Cocoa Prices Surge by Supply Shortages and Climate ChallengeCocoa prices are experiencing unprecedented levels amid supply shortages and weather challenges. Investors should monitor market developments closely, with a bullish outlook towards higher price targets. However, the potential for prices to reverse exists if weather conditions improve, highlighting the importance of staying informed and adaptable in this dynamic market environment. Current Price: $5595 per ton Next Price Target: $7000 and higher Outlook: The bullish momentum in cocoa prices suggests a potential continuation of the uptrend, with a next price target of $7000 and beyond. However, prices could see downward pressure if weather conditions improve, leading to increased production and alleviating supply constraints.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by Soldi75
Easter eggs likely to get expensive as cocoa trades at a 46-yearCocoa was the best performing commodity in 2023, recording a price increase of 64%1. Cocoa prices have continued to rally in 2024 crossing the threshold of US$5000 Metric Ton (MT) on 2 February 2024. The last time cocoa prices rose to this magnitude was in 1977 when it reached US$5379MT. A similar situation prevailed back then, adverse weather conditions led to production scarcities in major cocoa production countries including Ghana and Ivory Coast. Current crop conditions remain unfavourable in key cocoa growing regions Weather conditions in Africa have been unfavourable particularly in the Ivory coast and Ghana. This matters as the cocoa producing belt of West Africa is responsible for generating over 80% of the total global output. Ghana is the second biggest producer in the world. Moisture levels have been below average, and more trees have been affected by the Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV). Main crop cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast had reached 951,710 tonnes by 21 January since the start of the season on 1 October, down 33% from the same period last season. The cocoa harvest is already falling well behind the prior year’s level. Added to that, the key West African Cocoa growing region is facing dry Harmattan winds which could destroy the cocoa pods growing for the Ivory Coast’s mid-crop in April. Ivory Coast halts forward sales of cocoa Ivory coast has suspended forward sales of cocoa beans for the 2024/25 season amid uncertainty about the production volumes. The country has seen its cocoa production falling this year due to adverse weather and diseases damaging the crop. Owing to which the country doesn’t want to oversell the 2024/25 crop until the production estimates are available. Buyers typically utilise forward sales to secure longer-term supplies. As Ivory Coast suspends forward sales, the absence of forward buying is likely to spur spot purchases in the near term. Cocoa prices in January itself have risen 13%2, on strong buying activity in the physical market. The front end of cocoa futures curve remains in backwardation, yielding a positive implied roll yield of 3.2% indicating near term tightness in supply. Bearish grinding data fails to arrest cocoa’s price rally Concerns started to surface that demand growth for cocoa will be impacted by higher cocoa prices. This was confirmed by the Q4 2023 data on cocoa processing which showed the grind number for North America was down 3% yoy to 103,971MT, Europe declined 2.5% yoy to 350,739MT while Asia saw the biggest decline at 8.55% to 211,202MT.3 The lower grind data is likely to have reduced the deficit on the global cocoa market from 350,000MT to 300,000MT for the 2023/24 crop year. However, expectations of lower grinding data was being anticipated by the market owing to higher cocoa prices. Amidst the current backdrop, the cocoa market is likely to face a supply deficit in the current crop year for the third successive year. The extension of the current price rally remains dependent on development of the mid-crop in Ivory Coast and Ghana and the likely impact of the CSSV. Net speculative positioning in cocoa futures is more than 1-standard deviation (stdv) above the five-year average underscoring bullish sentiment towards cocoa. Sources 1 Source: Bloomberg Cocoa Futures price performance from 31 December 2022 to 29 December 2023 2 Source: Bloomberg Cocoa Futures price performance from 3 January 2024 to 31 January 2024 3 Bloomberg as of 31 January 2024 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
NYMEX:CJ1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Bullish Cocoa MarketThe billionaire global cocoa market has been steadily rising since the end of last year. As evidence, we can see that in the last 426 days, cocoa has experienced an increase of 80.14% . This surge can be attributed to various factors, such as an increase in the consumption of sweets that use cocoa as a raw material, especially in China. This is evidenced by The Food Institute, which published an article titled "Treat Yourself 2023," confirming a remarkable 9.8% annual increase in chocolate consumption worldwide. Over the past two decades, chocolate consumption has not only increased but has been a consistent trend that is unlikely to change soon, given the lack of expected changes in overall behavior and dietary habits. Therefore, with the continuous rise in consumption, it is likely that demand will continue to outpace supply, potentially leading to an increase in cocoa prices in the coming months and perhaps years. Hence, the bullish trend in cocoa is likely to persist until various issues related to this commodity are addressed. Bullish Cocoa Market - Profit Opportunities As mentioned, we can expect cocoa to increase in value due to rising demand relative to supply. However, this is not the only factor confirming the theory that cocoa will remain bullish for the next few months and possibly years. Several other factors support this theory. Firstly, the biggest risk to the increase in cocoa prices is that 70% of its production is concentrated in Africa, specifically in West Africa. Another risk is that more than half of the world's cocoa production is concentrated in only two countries, namely Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together represent 60% of global supply according to 2020 data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Because of this, the cocoa market becomes vulnerable to any economic, geopolitical, and environmental disturbances occurring in these two countries, especially after the return of geopolitical tensions in the region. This includes the strengthening of coups, civil wars, and clashes of pro-Russian forces, the weakening of French influence in the region that guaranteed peace and security since the colonial era, the power vacuum in the region without a primary or secondary power to dictate the "rules," and the strengthening of groups such as Tuaregs, Jihadists, and others in the West African region. This geopolitical strife creates a vulnerable situation for Ghana and Ivory Coast, and in the event of war, we can expect further shocks to cocoa prices, as seen during the First Ivorian Civil War, where prices rose by 19% in just 30 days, and the Second Ivorian Civil War, where prices increased by 37% in 98 days. The market was not affected even more because the harvests in both wars had already been sold, harvested, and exported, with France ensuring access to the remaining goods through major ports, allowing cocoa to be shipped. Another significant risk to the cocoa market is global warming and sudden temperature fluctuations that endanger cocoa plantations, especially in West Africa, where climatic imbalances pose a threat to the two largest producers in the market. Therefore, despite efforts by both countries to modernize and improve the capacity and security of cocoa farms, such projects are expected to take time due to reasons such as corruption, lack of funds, and a shortage of qualified personnel, considering the managerial incompetence of African governments. Another significant risk, now confirmed, is that due to climate and crop issues, a third global cocoa deficit for the 2023/2024 season is expected by the FAO. In other words, climatic, geopolitical risks, and consumption patterns indicate a high likelihood of cocoa value increase in the coming months and probably years.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by CherPetitPrince
The jury is still out on the impact of El NiñoWeather has always been a key factor influencing the outlook for major commodities, especially agricultural commodities. The arrival of El Niño in June 2023 has led to a wide divergence in the performance across agricultural commodities. As discussed in our previous blog “What does El Niño’s return mean for commodities?”, the effects of El Niño include specific wind patterns across the Pacific Ocean, heavy rain in South America, and droughts in Australia and parts of Asia including India and Indonesia. This is why certain commodities such as cocoa, sugar, soybean oil and grains tend to depict a price positive environment following an El Niño phenomena. So far in 2023 – cocoa, sugar and cotton have been key beneficiaries of the El Niño weather phenomena whilst wheat, corn and soybeans have posted a weaker performance. How is the El Niño evolving? With the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasting more than a 95% probability of El Niño continuing through the Northern Hemisphere winter through January - March 2024 , chances are high that we continue to see further weather abnormalities over the coming months. There is now around a 71% chance that this event peaks as a strong El Niño this winter1. The main El Niño monitoring metric showed the average sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean—was 1.3˚Celsius (2.3˚Fahrenheit) above the long-term average in August, up from 1˚C in July1. The whole ocean (Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, Artic and Southern Ocean ) was over 1˚C above the 20th-century average in August, the first time that’s happened in the 174-year record2. An important aspect of ocean changes is the sea level height. Presently there is a strong ocean sea level rise in the easterly tropical Pacific, a clear sign that El Niño is active3. The changes in the ocean heat content are mainly due to the expansion and rise of the strong subsurface warm pool. This also causes the sea level height to increase, usually associated with warmer waters. Agricultural commodities price response to El Niño will vary The growing of agricultural products is sensitive to weather patterns. For some crops, El Niño could boost production, while for others it could damage production. This is because the drift in warm water across the Pacific moves’ evaporation and rain such that Southeast Asia and Australia tend to get drier while Peru and Ecuador tend to receive more precipitation. Should the weather event intensify, it could be a significant catalyst for price gains in cocoa, soybean oil, sugar, and grains as discussed in “What does El Niño’s return mean for commodities?” blog. Cocoa and sugar lead the commodity scoreboard in El Niño ’s slipstream Cocoa has been an important beneficiary of the El Niño. The concentration of supply in West Africa, nearly 70% of global supply4, underlines the outsized impact of the region’s weather patterns on the world’s cocoa supplies and prices. The emerging El Niño is likely to hamper the next main crop that begins in October as it tends to bring dry and hot conditions to West Africa. This comes at a time when heavy rains in West Africa have triggered the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD) and the spread of Black pod diseases. The diseases alongside the high cost of inputs, have not spared the two leading producers (i.e., Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana) and affected their volume of production5. Despite high cocoa prices, demand evident from cocoa grinding continues to rise in Asia and the US6. Sugar has also benefitted from the emergence of El Niño as lower rainfall in Asia, namely India and Thailand have resulted in lower sugar production. However, we expect further upside for sugar prices to be capped as Brazil (the world’s largest producer and exporter) is likely to fill the gap. Production in Brazil’s main Centre- South (CS) growing region between the start of the crop year in April and mid-August already amounted to 22.7mn tons, which is up 22% over the same period last year7. What’s more, the sugar mix increased to 51.1% in H1 September, up from 50.7% in H2 August signalling that Brazilian mills continue to favour sugar production over ethanol amidst higher sugar prices5. Extreme weather conditions in China have reduced domestic supplies. China is also planning to release 1.3mn tons of sugar from its reserves, to increase domestic supplies and stabilise prices4. Wheat prices stand to benefit as key producers to face the impact of El Niño On the other end of the spectrum, grains (namely wheat, corn and soybeans) continued to struggle as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) outlined a more bearish outlook for corn while bullish for wheat. The corn harvest is progressing well with 15% of the crop harvested, up from 11% at the same stage last year and also above the five-year average of 13%8. Moscow’s revocation of the secure grain’s corridor through the Black Sea, alongside the Russian attacks on key infrastructure along the Danube River in Ukraine, have lowered grains exports from Ukraine by 25% over the prior year. Yet wheat prices have fallen sharply this year as Russia’s record crop is enabling it to ship huge volumes to world markets. The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia has likewise reduced its crop forecast for the region by 1.5 million tons to 8.5 million tons. Most of Australia is expected to face warm and dry conditions over the next three months9, so further downward revisions are on the cards. Argentinian farmers are also battling with a drought. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has already warned that the crop in 2023/24 could be impaired if there is no rainfall in the near future. As the prospects for the wheat crop amongst major producer countries are becoming increasingly weak, we expect wheat to benefit from these rising tailwinds. Conclusion There has been a wide divergence within the commodity linked Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) flows since the start of the year. Agriculture linked ETFs have seen US$458mn worth of outflows while energy linked commodity ETFs raked in US$1.2Bn worth of inflows10. Agriculture linked commodity ETFs likely faced outflows owing to profit taking. We continue to expect plenty of upside in select agricultural commodities as the impact of the El Niño is likely to intensify over the upcoming winter. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
ICEUS:CC1!
by aneekaguptaWTE