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C1! trade ideas

Cocoa Cacao #CC1!#Cocoa can’t seem to take a clear heading, the august attempt failed. USD keeps consolidating (@109) harming commodities such as cocoa. On a technical view: cc tried for a run above 2400 on the 22nd of August, but this push was cut short by negative world news from higher inflation, more worries from China, Europe, and mostly the energy crisis that will seem to obliterate the european market if leaders don’t find a solution to their problems. The EU is facing an increase of up 500% over their utility bill and that will convert many businesses to bankruptcy. Chocolate will most probably be less consumed in this third and fourth quarter as Europe digs its way out of the energy crisis. On the positive note, CC managed to hold above 2300, on its 12 months support. If it is tested again then I fear the next support is 2150. At 2150 it enters what I call the green zone where it becomes attractive to get back in. Nevertheless CC is still very far from its 50 day MA, 140 points on the weekly graph. There are some signs of improvements on the MACD indicator holding a positive trend since 22/08. On the longer term graph, it is still far from showing a change from a downtrend. As we approach the end of year, which usually denotes higher consumption for chocolates, I am hoping to see a reversal of trend by seasonality effect. Macro events will definitely take over any micro trends possibilities. **** Cacao parece no tomar rumbo, el intento de inicios de agosto fracasó. USD sigue consolidándose (@ 109) perjudicando materias primas como el cacao. Desde un punto de vista técnico: #CC intentó romper por encima de 2400 el 22 de agosto, pero este impulso se vio interrumpido por noticias mundiales negativas de mayor inflación, más preocupaciones desde China, Europa y, sobre todo, la crisis energética q asombra europa si los líderes no encuentran solución a sus problemas. La UE se enfrenta a un aumento de hasta 500 % en su factura de electricidad y eso llevará muchas empresas a la quiebra. Lo más probable es que el chocolate se consuma menos en este tercer y cuarto trimestre a medida que Europa se abre camino para salir de la crisis energética. En la nota positiva, CC logró mantenerse por encima de 2300, el soporte de los últimos 12 meses. Si prueba nuevamente, temo que el próximo soporte es 2150. En 2150 ingresa a lo que llamo la zona verde donde se vuelve atractivo ingresar para especuladores. Sin embargo, CC aún está muy lejos de su Media Móvil de 50 días, 140 puntos del gráfico semanal. Hay algunas señales de mejora en el indicador MACD que mantiene una tendencia positiva desde el 22/08. En el gráfico a más largo plazo, todavía está lejos de mostrar un cambio de la tendencia bajista. A medida que nos acercamos al final del año, que generalmente denota mayor consumo de chocolates y por ende una mejoría en el precio, esperare ver una reversión de la tendencia por el efecto de la estacionalidad. Los Macro eventos definitivamente tendrán mayor peso a las posibilidades de las micro tendencias.
ICEUS:CC1!
by ejencalada
Cocoa market repeatedly bottoms in JulyThe picture below highlights major swing bottoms that all occured in July. Years 2020 and 2021 clearly offered a phenomenal buying opportunity for long positions. Further back, in 2019, a major swing bottom has been locked in in August. In 2018, we got minor swing bottom in August as well, but the price came slightly below the level in October. That year, the market was greatly disrupted by a major bull run from January 2018 that continued throughout the first half of the year. Anyways, halfway through July, we were given a bottom that is holding to this day. It would be the third rally starting at this price level, but something is different - the price is consolidating instead of rallying. I interpret this consolidation as a way to get in at slightly lower price when the stop-loss level has already been determined. I don't think the price could be manipulated only to get Long speculaters out of the position - not this much. Another possibility is that other agricultural commodities have overshadowed Cocoa, but I think the increasing prices will make Cocoa markets soar just as much as Wheat. It is mostly grown in countries that will be last to afford now expensive fertilizers.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by OrcChieftain
Cocoa Breakout Off Inflation SlowdownThe cocoa market, along with many of the softs, is gaining some steam as inflation levels seem to be turning around. The September contract broke its downtrend going back to April of this year and pushed through the 50-day moving average. As inflation looks to be cooling, Cocoa could look to extend gains and test some resistance near the 2464 level, where there will likely be some congestion, and the 50-day moving average which was previous resistance will now act as a strong support level.
ICEUS:CCU2022
by Ryan_Gorman
Short term Cocao Analisis On the daily graph, #CC is attempting a break-out from its mid-February downhill from 2800 down to 2250. It has tried monthly to break through that resistance (RED) and failed, it is now on 9th of august attempting yet again. However, this time it looks more supportive as its MACD has turned positive since mid-July and better buy volumes also. Its short term moving average is also trying to turn positive. It is in process. On a longer-term chart, weekly, and which will be showing, the black arrow is attempting to reverse trend. It is so far a weak attempt, as averages are still far from giving any confirmation, and volumes are still largely negative. Nevertheless, higher lows can be a positive indication of a higher price if this tendency maintains itself. I would call this at the crossroad. En el gráfico diario, cacao está intentando romper de su descenso de mediados de febrero desde 2800 a 2250. Ha intentado romper mensualmente esa resistencia (ROJA) y ha fallado, ahora el 9 de agosto lo intenta una vez más. Sin embargo, esta vez parece mejor posicionado ya que su MACD se ha vuelto positivo desde mediados de julio y también muestra volúmenes de compra. Su promedio móvil a corto plazo también está tratando de volverse positivo. A largo plazo, periodo semanal, como se ve en el gráfico, la flecha negra indica que intenta revertir la tendencia. Hasta ahora, parece un intento débil, ya que los promedios aún están lejos de dar una confirmación y los volúmenes siguen siendo en gran medida negativos. Sin embargo, bajos más altos suele ser una indicación positiva de un precio más alto si esto se mantiene. Yo lo llamaría: la encrucijada.
ICEUS:CC1!
by ejencalada
Cocoa #CC Cacao Analysis I will start with Base Support (SB) which in my last analysis I said: ‘Base Support SB at 2315 still holds, if this breaks next support would be around 2200 ($80q) followed by 2150.’ On July 1, the price of CC touched the base support level, and bounced back up only to fall on July 7th again and close the week on the SB level. This is clearly not a positive and may be indicative of further weakness to come. Resistance D (red line) continues to serve as a ceiling and cocoa is still far from approaching this R. The MACD indicator is still showing a downward trend, as well as the EMA’s averages. Likewise, the DXY indicator (dollar) continues to rise, in this case weakening the price of cocoa. THERE IS NO CHANGE OF TREND at the moment but these next few days will be important. If cocoa fails to recover, we will be seeing new levels, possibly around $2,200 per ton or $80 per quintal. Europe & the US continue on a recessionary path with higher inflation. Consumption decreases as the purchasing power of the consumer is eroded and chocolate will most likely also be touched. Next week grinding data will be out and that will give us a clearer indication regarding the real health of the consumption of chocolate. If the volume of grindings remains the same or rises, then a positive, if they fall, it indicates that the recession is affecting the chocolate market, and consequently the purchase of its raw material, cocoa. Comienzo con el Soporte Base SB que en mi último análisis dije: ‘El soporte base SB de 2315 aún se mantiene, si este rompe el próximo soporte sería alrededor de 2200 ($80q) seguido de 2150.’ El 1 julio el precio del cacao tocó el nivel del soporte base, y rebotó con debilidad el 7 de julio para de nuevo recaer y cerrar la semana al SB. Esto claramente no es positivo y puede ser indicativo de mayor debilidad por venir. La resistencia D (roja) sigue sirviendo de techo y por lo visto aún está lejos de acercarse. El indicador MACD aún muestra una tendencia a la baja, así como los promedios EMA. Igualmente, el indicador DXY (dólar) se mantiene en alza debilitando en este caso el curso del cacao. NO HAY CAMBIO DE TENDENCIA por el momento pero estos proximos dias seran importantes. Sí el cacao no logra recuperarse estaremos viendo nuevos niveles posiblemente alrededor de $2200 por tonelada o $80 por quintal. Europa & EEUU siguen en una trayectoria recesionaria con mayor inflación. El consumo disminuye a medida que se erosiona la capacidad adquisitiva del consumidor y el chocolate también tendrá afectación. La próxima semana saldrán datos de moliendas y eso nos dará un indicativo más claro en cuanto al consumo real del chocolate. Si volumen de moliendas se mantiene o suben entonces un positivo, si bajan indicador de que la recesión está afectando el mercado del chocolate, y a consecuencia la compra de su materia prima el cacao.
ICEUS:CC1!
by ejencalada
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ICEUS:CC1!
by Sunstorminvest
$CC #Cc Cocoa Cocoa remains under strong downward pressure since May. It has failed to break above slope D. The averages are also holding a downtrend. SB base support at 2315 still holds, if this breaks the next support would be around 2200 ($80q) followed by 2150. MACD is approaching its first bounce level of -40, could make an attempt higher. Keep this in sight. If this indicator continues to drop then we may see -80 levels before cocoa attempts another bounce. Cocoa depends on the consumption of chocolate. In recent weeks, the US and the EU have reported strong increases in their inflation rate, which translates into less consumption of non-essential products such as chocolate. Another negative factor is the high cocoa stock reported this month by the US ICE stock exchange in its cocoa warehouses. The inverse relationship between the dollar index (DIX) and current commodities does not favor cocoa: the dollar index (orange line) increased to >105 when its normal average is around 96. Cacao se mantiene con una fuerte presión a la baja desde mayo. No ha logrado romper por encima de la pendiente D. Los promedios también sostienen una tendencia bajista. El soporte base SB de 2315 aún se mantiene, si este rompe el próximo soporte seria alrededor de 2200 ($80q) seguido de 2150. El MACD se acerca a su primer nivel de rebote de -40, podría hacer un intento al alza. Mantener esto en la mira. Si este indicador sigue a la baja entonces podremos ver niveles de -80 antes de que cacao intente otro rebote. El cacao depende del consumo de chocolate. En estas últimas semanas, EEUU y UE ha reportado incrementos fuertes de su tasa de inflación, eso se traduce en menos consumos de productos no esenciales como es el chocolate. Otro factor negativo es el alto stock de cacao reportado este mes por la bolsa ICE de EEUU en sus bodegas de cacao. La relación inversa entre el índice dólar (DIX) y las materias primas actual no favorece al cacao: el índice dólar (línea color naranja) incremento hasta >105 cuando su promedio normal es alrededor de 96.
ICEUS:CC1!
by ejencalada