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DUTCH TTF GAS BASE LOAD FUTURES

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TFMK2033 trade ideas

Nat Gas: Trading the WeatherNYMEX: Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures ( CME_MINI:MNQ1! ) On December 31, 2024, the lead contract of NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas futures closed at $3.6330 per MMBtu. This marked a strong gain of 44.5% year-over-year, making it the best performing active futures contract for the year. Nat Gas is one of the most actively traded commodities. According to CME Group: • Henry Hub booked record trading volume in 2024. Average daily volumes for futures and options were 566,000 and 242,000 contracts, respectively. • As of last Friday, Open Interests were 1,511,978 for futures and 775,176 for options. The Basic Natural gas is a leading energy source for global economy. While clean energy generates a lot of buzz these days, natural gas still carries the biggest load in power generation. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates U.S. electricity production at 4.18 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2023. • About 43.1% of the electricity was generated by natural gas. • Nuclear power contributed to 18.6%, while coal had a 16.2% share. • Combined, Renewables accounted for a 21.4% share, including 10.2% from Wind, 5.7% from Hydro, and 3.9% from Solar. The price of a commodity is determined by its supply and demand. In the case of electricity, it is hard to store while its demand is highly unpredictable. New storage technology is limited by capacity and high cost. With Nat Gas being the biggest energy source, unforeseen changes in power demand could send shock waves into the market. Weather factors, in particular temperature, have the biggest impact in power demand. • In the summer months, the biggest power usage is for air conditioning cooling. Cooling Degree Day (CDD) is the number of days in a month where the average daily temperature is above 68 degrees Fahrenheit. • In the winter months, the biggest power usage is for heating home and offices. Heating Degree Day (HDD) is the number of days in a month where the average daily temperature is below 68 degrees Fahrenheit. Energy traders deploy CDD/HDD analysis and weather forecast models to predict temperature trends, electricity demand and the subsequent natural gas use. The Weather Shocks On December 29, 2024, the Weather Co. and Atmospheric G2 released a weather forecast for January showing colder than average temperature in the East, specifically from Florida to Maine as well as certain parts of the Great Lakes. In a separate report, AccuWeather meteorologists said that the colder air could trigger a winter storm with substantial snow and ice for a significant portion of the month’s first half. They added that the drop will begin in the middle and latter part of next week. When the futures market opened the next day, the price of Henry Hub futures surged 20%, hitting a new 52-week high of $4.20. Earlier in the winter, Germany experienced the so-called “Dunkelflaute” with no wind and a clouded sky. This is the worst scenario for wind and solar power. As Germany is heavily reliant on renewable energy, when the weather fails to cooperate, its power supply drops by half, sending electricity prices sky high. The huge supply gap prompted energy companies to turn on gas-fueled backup power plants, pushing the Dutch TTF ( NYMEX:TTF1! ) natural gas contracts to a record high. At the time of this writing, severe winter storms are sweeping across the Central Plains in the U.S., bringing heavy snow, sleet, and frozen rain from Kansas to Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and Washington, D.C. Apart from the winter hazards, I expect higher power consumption to keep people warm from the below-average temperatures. Trading with Micro Henry Hub Futures Micro Henry Hub natural gas futures (MNG) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s liquid benchmark Henry Hub futures (NG) contracts. The Micro futures have a contract size of 1,000 MMBtu, which is 1/10th of the standard contract. The Micro contracts allow traders to control a large contract value with a small amount of capital. With Friday settlement price of $3.354, each February contract (MNGG5) has a notional value of $3,354. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $366. Since its Monday high, Henry Hub prices have plunged 20%. Subsequent updated weather forecasts now predicted warmer trends for the Eastern US, which could curb heating demand for Nat Gas. Losses accelerated last Friday after the EIA reported that Nat Gas inventories for the week of December 27th fell -116 bcf, a smaller draw than expectations of -128 bcf. In my opinion, the draw was lower due to the reduced economic activity around the Christmas holiday. For the same token, we could see a smaller draw during the New Year. However, I consider this data seasonal outliners, rather than a longer-term trend. Global warming doesn’t necessarily mean warmer winters. Higher global temperature brings moisture from the ocean, with wetter atmosphere generating more extreme weather events. I expect winter temperature patterns to shift to much colder-than-normal, with cool anomalies poised to stick around key population centers deep into the winter. As we have seen in the past, unpredictable weather events could send large shocks to natural gas prices. With Micro Henry Hub contracts, traders could potentially realize sizable gains with a small capital requirement. Hypothetically, if the February prices move up 10% to $3.689 with lower temperature forecasts, the $0.3354 price gain would translate into $335.4 for a long futures position, given the contract size at 1,000 MMBtu. Using the initial margin of $366 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 99.6% (=335.4/366). The long futures position would lose money if Nat Gas prices continued to trend lower. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
Bullish on Natural Gas - January 280 Call OptionSummary: I'm bullish on the Natural Gas January 280 call option. Here's my trade idea: Current Price: Closed at ₹24.76 on December 27, 2024. Entry: Best Buying Price: Aim to enter below ₹18.80 for optimal risk-reward. Target: Price Target: Looking towards ₹37-₹40. Rationale: The current market conditions suggest potential for an upward movement in natural gas prices, supported by seasonal demand increases and possible geopolitical tensions affecting supply. Technical analysis indicates a potential breakout if the price sustains above key support levels. Risk Management: Set a stop-loss just below ₹16 to minimize potential losses if the market moves against the position. Position size should be managed to ensure the trade aligns with your risk tolerance. Time Frame: This trade is for the January expiry, giving us a tight window to capitalize on the expected price increase. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice but a personal trading idea. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before trading. Let's see if we can catch that wave up to ₹37-₹40!
MCX:NATURALGAS1!Long
by IndexAce
Natural Gas: The Bearish Plunge Before the Meteoric AscentSince its recent peak in August 2022 at a price of $10, natural gas has embarked on a substantial corrective journey. From an Elliott Wave perspective, this move is shaping as an ABC correction. The initial A wave was a sharp decline, followed by a rebound to the $4 level, forming the B wave. This B wave unfolded as an expanding flat correction, demonstrating classic technical patterns. Looking ahead, we foresee the next leg—a wave C—continuing its downward trajectory, potentially reaching a pivotal low of $0.77 around September 2025. This anticipated level aligns with critical technical support and could mark the completion of a major corrective phase. Following this projected bottom, we anticipate a robust reversal, with natural gas prices breaking above $4 and potentially revisiting the $10 mark by 2026. This long-term outlook highlights a significant investment opportunity for traders and investors alike. Key Takeaway: The path to $0.77 presents a bearish scenario in the short term, but the rebound promises a game-changing bullish outlook, with substantial growth potential for those who time the market right. Invalidation Level: Any upward breach above the $4 mark would challenge the current bearish wave count and require a reassessment of the analysis.
NYMEX:NG1!
by VitalDirection
Nat Gas Thursday 26 DecPrice is trading in a new territory. The margin required to enter into a trade has increased as the price has increased by 70%. Now you can't buy big quantity as fluctuation has risen, thus making stop loss quite large. So if your risk appetite is not that big you should think of bringing down position size. But if you're greed driven person this is your moment. You can make big bucks by trading just one big contract without scaling into a trade. Just keep trailing your stop and the rest will be taken care of. Fluctuations are big but it only happens at the end of a trend. One more thing if you trade just to make money then this market is not for you. You don't belong here. Go someplace else. There are million ways to make money. Pick one and love it.
MCX:NATURALGAS1!Short
by aadityaghate79
Nat Gas Tue 24 DecThe script has become quite volatile. Traders unfamiliar with this volatility or used to the equity market will lose their minds. Nat Gas has crossed the 300 mark and now the nature of the beast has changed. And it is going to get worse and if you're a price action trader then you're going to have a hard time making money. Cause fluctuations are not backed by logic or valuation but by fear in other sectors. People who have studied this market for a long and dedicated their energy and time to this script are going to survive, other traders are going to lose their money and mind eventually. I'll only say "Go back to your playground". Whoever has dedicated themselves to this craft is going to make money even in the worst conditions. Goodbye and happy trading!
MCX:NATURALGAS1!Long
by aadityaghate79
Nat Gas Monday 23 DecToday was the day for swing traders. There come some days when you can't help but make money. The market opened with the gap on the upside, stayed sideways for a while then started creeping down. At one point selling pressure was so high price hardly rallied. For swing traders, this was that day of the month. For scalpers, it was business as usual. But the interesting thing about today is that volatility was high. It was no big deal cause the targets were also big. As long as the price is above 300 big swings are here to stay. Prepare yourself for big swings! See you Tomorrow.
MCX:NATURALGAS1!Short
by aadityaghate79
NATGAS My Opinion! SELL! My dear friends, NATGAS looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 3.749 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 3.574 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by AnabelSignals
1
How This #1 Chart Pattern WorksIts been a crazy week as the markets are cold going down into a bear market. I was feeling very sad these past 2 days. But after a special discussion i had With a group of guys, i felt much better. This encouraged me to refine my trading system It makes it so simple that i won't have to think too much about it. This allowed me to stumble into a a Blue Ocean strategy for trading the commodities market Now look at this pattern have you noticed the 3 green candles? According to chart patterns on NYMEX:NG1! what type of candlestick chart pattern is this? This chart pattern, has a consolidation period meaning it will go flat and so you have to account for risk management before you engage in this type of trade. Once you understand this chart pattern you are well on your way to understand the last step in the rocket booster strategy To learn more about the rocket booster strategy check out the resources below. Rocket boost this content to learn more. Disclaimer: Trading is risky please use a simulation trading tool before you trade with real money
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by lubosi
Nat Gas Friday 20 DecOpened with a gap of 3% on the upside. The start wasn't that good. A couple of losses were incurred at the beginning. But covered in later trades. Credit goes to "adding to the winners". XNGUSD was sometimes leading and sometimes lagging. The script gave retailers ample amount of time to think. Even though the direction of XNGUSD and Natgas against the rupee was the same there was some price slippage. Due to this getting to the conclusion was a bit tricky. As always scalpers must've exited with some profit.
MCX:NATURALGAS1!
by aadityaghate79
Natural Gas !! Bulls are Still on the Road.How's the Josh trader ?? Natural gas has a Good Setup... I am extremely sorry to update so late, I am holding it 225 Levels and I am expecting it to go towards 370-375 Levels. As we Can Clearly see on Chart ... Natural Gas is on the rally towards Wave 3 ( Wave 3 is the longest in Impulse Wave ) so I am Clearly Betting towards 370-375 Levels. SO, LONG NATURAL GAS @ MARKET PRICE TARGET @ 370-375 STOPLOSS @ OPEN NOTE : THIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE PLEASE REFER TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADE Have A Good Day Traders.
MCX:NATURALGAS1!Long
by Trading_Bulls0000
Nat Gas Thursday 19 Dec Even though Script opened with a 3% gap on the upside, the day was quite rewarding. Movements weren't that quick so trading manually wasn't that difficult. Buying on dips and selling on rallies was the name of the game today. It started creeping on the downside for some time but that turned out to be a temporary fall. The Market gave abundant opportunities to cover the losses. Whoever trades moving average crossover might have lost money due to the choppiness in the market. The day rewarded someone who doesn't act on FOMO. And punished those who can't handle big but temporary drawdowns. That is it for today. Hope whatever vehicle you trade has paid you handsomely. See you all tomorrow!
MCX:NATURALGAS1!Long
by aadityaghate79
Nat Gas Wed 18 DecScript opened with 5% gap on the upside, which was a surprise for awing traders who carried short position on tuesday. It remained irritating till 7 pm. Once the hope of filling the gap vanished it started creeping on the upside but it wasn't enough to cover the losses incurred due to the gap. As always market favoured scalpers. Fluctuations were big enough to make money. Scaling in was a bit tricky though for someone who trades manually cause movements were quick. Overall volume was good, getting orders filled wasn't difficult. Don't carry long positions today. Most of the time market tries to fill the gap of the previous session. See you all tomorrow!
MCX:NATURALGAS1!
by aadityaghate79