Further possible Long trend in NGlatest move due to weather in TX in USA. Hot time for Europe comas well so this may increase need for NG
yesterday P day profile show some liquidation of long positions, so today all about keeping the VPOC of yesterday and there is more and more bad high building 2.370
But it is too obvious for NG, and NG likes to screw such trades before they work out.
i do not know why, volume profiles are not shown in picture hmmm
TFN1! trade ideas
NATGAS - all quiet in the westAfter a warm winter, now we wait for the summer season and ACs on. Moreover, for the time being EU has full gas storages - often from Russia yet, which will be used and then must be replaced. How will it affect the US prices? Many hope for a rally similar to what we saw a year ago. Perhaps they are right, however for the time being - all quiet in the west.
A long trade in NG possible if we stay bid 2.305Last 2 days had a nice pull down poor value areas, so looks like folks was force to sell or there were nice traps for short sellers.
Now NG sits on VAH of last long consolidation and there is notr much will to sell 2.305. They try but each time going back to 2.305
targets 2.375 as next one
Above 2.4 we should get acceleration this move.
NATURAL GAS Buy signal unless this Higher Lows line breaks.Natural Gas (NG1!) is trading inside a Bullish Megaphone that has just priced its new Higher Low. The price is above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and has started the new leg to a Higher High. Before that however, it has several Resistance levels to overcome, namely the 2.690 Resistance and before that the Lower Highs trend-line. As a result we are buyers but set a target below that level at 2.550. If instead the price closes a 1D candle below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone, we will sell and target the 1.950 Support.
It is worth mentioning the 1D RSI that has been trading on Higher Lows since February 03, an early Bullish Divergence signal against the downtrend's Lower Lows for the price. This momentum continues to favor buying on the medium-term.
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NATURAL GAS FUTURES Chart Fibonacci Analysis 060523 Trading idea - Entry point > 7.5/61.80%
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 2.4/61.80%
Chart time frame : B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : B
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the bottom
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
NG1! Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear friends,
NG1! looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 2.228
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 2.366
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NG1! LONG FROM SUPPORT
Hello,Friends!
We are going long on the NG1! with the target of 2.461 level, because the pair is oversold and will soon hit the support line below. We deduced the oversold condition from the price being near to the lower BB band.However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is red and gives us a counter-signal.
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NATGAS Will Keep Falling! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS is trading in a
Downtrend and the pair
Has formed a bearish flag
Pattern so now that we are
Seeing a bearish breakout
I think that the price
Will go further down
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
$BOIL #NG Buy the dipI've been bullish and trading natural gas (BOIL EQT RRC) for a while now and recently sold on the last pump to 2.6
I'm reloading now, as I'm looking at a few things technically I like
-Price appears to have found support on a flattening 20DMA , and will next watch to see if we start trending up
- The low in May was higher than April , and almost forming a rounded base if we can sustain higher than May's low , it will be a good sign
- Strong support at 2 putting in a triple bottom now - even if we go lower, in the longer term as long as we stay above 2 , your entry of say 2.15 won't really matter when we're at 5 !
- EQT and RRC are both flagging and keeping their gains so far, looking for more upside , which of course depends on NG but is providing bullish confluence .
QG1!5.23.23 I finished the Palladium on this video and then I moved over to The Natural Gas market....And I ran out of time... so I will do a quick video after this because the natural gas has volatility and that's the kind of market that can develop good trades for us so we don't want to take the money and run if the market has volatility.... which means there's more opportunity As a buyer or a seller for careful.
May 21,23-NG-Will NG hit 2.7?Will NG go up this week to 2.7?? Let me know your thoughts. I'm on the fence...I think I will put my TP at 2.6 and be satisfied with that.
I have placed my Stop Loss at 2.4 (the green line) so I will only profit 100 points or so if it gets hit, but better than nada right? :-o
Let me know what you think.
Stay safe all.
Heiko
Bobby's Homework Assignment5.20.23 This is a very good video to look at..... we are looking at natural Gas Which should be fairly easy to trade if you knew how to use the tools that we look at. This is a market you should plot out on your own software... and make sure you understand the thinking around this. Unfortunately, there are a couple minor slips of the tongue which goes along with the territory when I produce Videos, but you should know what they are and how to compensate.
NG - Freedom from FearLately, natural gas has gone up in value a bit despite declining in value almost continuously for the past six months. This has people wondering whether or not there is further upside.
It is important to remember that most of the natural gas volume is from institutional traders of whatever type, but retail does have a part in the market as well.
As soon as a few months ago, things were different from the retail trader/investor point of view. People were much more eager to go long on natural gas because of how far it had fallen. It certainly looked as if it was ripe for a harsh oversold bounce.
However, in late Feb-early March, the only bounce that ever happened at all was preceded by a steep drop and ended with a weekend bull trap, which was not exactly the easiest move to take advantage of.
This was followed by a slower decline that ate away at ETF values in particular. Not only that, but contract contango has made it difficult to go long on natural gas.
Since then, it has consolidated in some sort of roughly defined range only to sharply rise in the past week.
My theory is that anyone who actually dared to go long on natural gas, particularly during the Jan-Feb era where it still had room to fall, got to see firsthand how natural gas refused to bounce. The retail sentiment is now much more hopeless and focused on taking whatever profit there is.
Memories of the weekend trap in March have now contributed to retail taking money off the table instead. They are now afraid to go long because of how sad the price action has been. It doesn't look like anyone truly believes there will be a real bounce (like they did a few months ago)
The actual point
A lot of that was mostly just anecdotal evidence and focus on retail traders, who are just a tiny portion of the market.
The reason to not go long here is, at its core, fear of natural gas just going down as it has done very consistently for the past six months. It is probably at least a somewhat good idea to not pay attention to that fear and instead trade based on technicals and fundamental stuff.
The fact is that there has not been a real Fibonacci retracement since December. As you can see on the chart, even the Feb-March bounce did not reach even the lowest target. This is not just something that happens!
The most recent & comparable example I could find is from July '08 to Sept '09, where natural gas did manage to decline about 82% without ever hitting a Fibonacci target. You can somewhat justify this move by saying that it basically had gone up in a straight line in the first half of 2008.
The end result, though, was that it literally doubled in value (from $2.5) in the span of a month.
Even the 2022 market was different from 2008. In 2008, it had essentially been straight up then straight down. 2022's market was much more choppy and even set a late June low at $5.5, far below the $8 to $9 peaks it had set. It then consolidated for four months near the $6 mark.
For anything that doesn't go bankrupt, or anything where the fundamentals are truly, completely changed, there will basically always be some sort of bounce or rebalancing that takes place after a big move. It might take some time, but that is just how it is in the markets.
We have not had this bounce. Right now, there is a lot of fear to go around and it seems like no one believes that natural gas will actually reach any sort of high point again.
Maybe natural gas will, in fact, go lower, but the upside afterwards only grows the longer it is put off.
May 18,23-NG-Finally Up Up and away?Did anyone put in a Buy Order at 2? or 2.1?
You can finally see two weeks in a row of Bullish price movement!! Finally!
You can also see price actually passed the green Alligator line which is a bullish sign - just hoping it closes tomorrow ABOVE this line. Then hopfully al good next week.
But who knows - next week is next week. AnyHOOO
Hope all is well with everyone - sorry for a lack of posts recently but there has been nothing but sideways action, until now.
Stay safe !!
Heiko
NG1! BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello,Friends!
We are now examining the NG1! pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 2.246 level.
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Is there a chance the price of natural gas will hit $4?If you want to be notified every time I post a new article, just click 'FOLLOW' above. Also, if you want to learn more about a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I'll be happy to help.
Global gas markets are slowly rebalancing, but Russian gas supplies to Europe are expected to remain limited until 2023.
In 2022, European and global gas markets faced a sharp reduction in gas supplies after Russia cut its supplies through European Union pipelines by 80%. This has led to the emergence of a global energy crisis.
Thanks to the pleasant climate, the increase in the export of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) and the drastic decrease in the demand for gas, European stocks are filled to around 60%. This helped cushion the shock of the pandemic.
The IEA indicated in a report on the gas market that diminishing market concerns coupled with current reserves are grounds for cautious confidence about security of supply. This gives an indication that there will be sufficient gas supply during the summer.
'While forecasts for gas markets in 2023 are encouraging, future volatility cannot be totally ruled out...global gas supply will remain quite tight by 2023 and the global balance is subject to a surprisingly large variety of possible scenarios. According to the report.
There are many risks, such as unfavorable weather conditions which can lead to a shortage of LNG and the possibility of a decrease in Russian supplies to Europe. All this could renew tensions on the markets and increase price volatility.
Europe has seen an unprecedented drop in gas consumption of 16%, or 55 billion cubic meters (bcm), during the 2022/23 heating season. This is good news that shows that Europe is becoming more attentive to sustainability.
The study results show that the EU only needs half the level of storage injection recorded in the summer of 2022 to meet the 90% storage target by the start of the 2023/24 heating season.
Liquid natural gas (LNG) now makes up two-thirds of the European Union's gas imports, meeting one-third of its gas demand during the 2022/23 heating season. A 25% increase was observed, amounting to around 20 bcm for European LNG imports, while more than 45% of the additional supply comes from the United States.
Global supply of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is projected to increase by just 4% by 2023, which is less than the expected reduction in Russian gas supplies to Europe, so the outlook is not as bad as it seems from appearances.
At the moment, I am checking inventory levels on a weekly basis to evaluate whether to buy gas.
Gas supply is currently plentiful due to current record production.
With a summer of drought and extreme temperatures expected, we could see inventories shrink due to higher cooling demand.
The first heat waves will probably arrive in June, and that's when I plan to buy natural gas for the summer.
My calculations indicate that gas prices could be $4 in the third part of the year if the predicted extreme heat occurs.
Author's note:
The information and content provided on this site should not be considered as an invitation to invest in the financial markets. The Content is a personal opinion of Dr. Antonio Ferlito.