TFU1! trade ideas
Opening (Margin): /NG January 26th 1.90/2.90 Short Put Vertical... for a 1.70 credit.
Comments: Neutral to bullish assumption trade on weakness. 1.70 credit on buying power effect of 16.41; 10.4% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect; 5.2% at 50% max.
Pump or dump. Im calling dumpChart says most of my thoughts. NG markup period consistently propped by low volume during low liquidity (after hours) to manipulate price. This only supports my idea that NG is gonna nuke hard eventually. True target is way lower then chart says but that might some time. Im thinking close to $3. The patient and vigilant will be rewarded. GLTA
Natural Gas Futures (Road Map)!!!🗺️What are Natural Gas Futures ❗️❓
Natural Gas Futures can be used for hedging or speculating and can be traded nearly 24 hours per day, 6 days per week. Trading Natural Gas Futures allows hedgers to manage risk within the highly volatile natural gas price, which is driven by weather-related demand.
Natural Gas Futures is running in Heavy Resistance Zone & Important Trendlin & Resistance Line, and at the same time, it was able to pass the main wave 5 in this zone. So I expect Natural Gas Futures to go down to my🎯targets🎯 that I showed in my chart.
Where can Natural Gas Futures go (🎯Targets🎯)❗️❓
Target🎯: 4.67$-4.55$
Target🎯: 2.98$-2.84$
Natural Gas Futures Analyze, Monthly Timeframe (Logscale).
Also, we can see one of the valid candlestick reversal patterns (💫Shooting Star💫) at a weekly timeframe 👇
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
NatGas: Don't trip 🚶🏼NatGas is currently facing down and should leave the turquoise target zone to climb below the support line at $4.750 to complete the pink wave iii. Our alternative scenario implies, that the course could rise above the resistance mark at $7.064 instead, if the course would stay above the $5.337-mark. After the completion of the pink iii in our primary scenario, we're expecting the course to rise between $4.750 and $5.337 to finish off the pink wave iv, before dropping back South. The downwards slope should stretch until the turquoise target zone between $3.436 and $1.880 to end the green wave .
Dec 15,22-NG-Time to go long??I put in a Buy Order at 6.6.
Not sure what's going to happen tomorrow being the end of the week. What I do know is Europe is having colder than normal temps for this time of year and Germany just released that their supplies for NG have dwindled faster than expected for this time of year; hence, price for European NG could go up shortly.
Also, the Dec Contract Expiry is coming up and I have found NG goes up a bit toward contract end.
Also, the War - Also, weather in the U.S. is pretty cold - who knows if it will warm up or get colder - colder would be good for my Buy Order of course :-)
Anyway, I'm thinking price will drop a bit tomorrow and trigger my Buy Order. Then I will pray next week price goes up and up.
Heiko
Update on US Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices – December 2022A cold weather snap forecast across much of the United States is driving demand for natural gas as a heating fuel higher. Prices of front month Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures have risen over the past week as a result. The front of the curve has moved more than the rest of the curve. The curve is now close to where it was two weeks ago.
Natural gas in storage is within seasonally normal range. Since June 2022, when Freeport LNG Terminal had to shut down after a fire, natural gas storage in the US has been ramped up as the gas produced in the US can no longer be exported at the same volume as prior to the shut-down. Freeport LNG accounts for close to 20% of US export capacity. Its re-opening has been delayed many times and the latest guidance from Freeport is a partial opening in mid-December 2022 and full production in March 2023 . However, in an email statement to Reuters they have pushed the reopening to end-of-year , and we remain sceptical that there will be any flow of LNG from the terminal this side of the of the New Year.
Ample storage could drive US natural gas prices lower when the cold weather snap passes.
Europe has been able to fill its natural gas storage capacity to close to 90% coming into the start of the winter period (October 2022) and is now drawing on that capacity at a slower than expected rate due to thrifting and an initially milder-than-expected weather pattern. However, colder weather has arrived, which could drive higher demand. Natural gas flows to Europe from Russia have slowed to a trickle and hence the region is reliant on Liquified Natural Gas from elsewhere. Unfortunately, with Freeport LNG offline, the US will not participate fully in meeting this demand over the coming weeks, but US Henry Hub may get a boost when Freeport LNG opens.
The European Union is currently trying to implement a price cap on imports. There is no final deal to speak of, but the European Commission’s proposal, is for a market correction mechanism that would kick in when the price of month-ahead contracts on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility exceeded €275 ($290) per megawatt hour and the gap between world prices was greater than €58 . Any success in approving this price cap, could limit upside for US Henry Hub used as feedstock for LNG exports to Europe. However, with the price gap between US and European natural gas prices being so wide (almost 6 times ), we believe the upside could nevertheless very large.
Source:
1 FREE PORTING NEW ROUTER
2 Reuters
3 Bloomberg 13/12/2022
4 WisdomTree calculation on 13/12/2022 using Dutch TTF Gas 1st Line Financial Futures (USD/MMBTU) as published by ICE Endex who convert megawatt hour to Metric Million British Thermal Unit (MMBTU) and USD using the WM/Refinitiv Closing EURUSD Spot Rates as published by Refinitiv at 4 pm UK time and Henry Hub Front month futures.
same pattern different dayNG just did a huge gap up on open with very low liquidity. This has happened a few times in this range. Thinking this was the final though and we are gonna nuke hard over the coming days assuming we can get back under 6.8. 6.8 is the line in the sand. under down over up.
I would assume whomever bought the 900 contracts to bring it up 10% has many more contracts that they will now be able to distribute significantly higher for relatively little cost.
Opening (Margin): /NG January 26th 1.80/2.80 Short Put Vertical... for a 1.90 credit.
Comments: Adding to my neutral to bullish assumption natural gas trade at slightly lower strikes. 1.90 credit on 16.87 of buying power; 11.3% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect; 5.6% at 50% max.
NGF23View the latest Natural Gas Jan 2023 Stock (NGF23) stock price, news, historical charts, analyst ratings and financial information
Great for business investment MOEX:NGF2023
Dec 11,22-NG-Who's pissed off now?a 700 point Gap Up??? SERIOUS??
I am sooooooooooooooooo pissed off - I can't believe I missed this buying opportunity last week - like I told you all in my last post last week, I missed the buying opportunity, I screwed up....but then for fate to rub it in my face with a 700 point gap up over the weekend???? CRUEL!!
Totally Cruel.
Anyway, now that NG has gone up over 1000 points in 6 days, can it go higher?? or is price going to come back down a bit. Hard to say.
I'll tell you this though.....I will be watching like a hawk. If price goes down a bit, I think I might put in a Buy Order at 6.8 or so in case price spikes up. If price keeps going down, hits 6.6, then 6.4 then lower, then I will keep my Buy Order about 200 points above the current price in case price action reverses quickly one day this week.
I know Wed the FED is going to hike rates again and this is going to cause the markets to go crazy. I've already shorted the S&P500 and making money there so I'm keeping that trade. I'm also Long on Oil as there is the whole Russia uncertainty and U.S. Supplies are dwindling quickly so I'm keeping that trade also.
But NG?? Again - I think between now and March price will go up no doubt...I just want to get in at the best price possible, and that was LAST WEEK!!! :-(
Anyway, stay safe and hit me up with your comments - I wanna know what you all think - am I crazy? Or is price still gonna go up from here?
Heiko
Natural GasHeading into the season, not an ideal set up with all the over extensions we have had in the past year with the commodities market, however might as well try to make some money off the tickers. NGG23 expire on the 23rd of Jan meaning we do not want to have the trade extend past the 23rd of Dec. or all the open interest will be sucked out. In addition we need to have a long dated contract shorting the Jan contract to hedge risk incase it goes against the trade. And do not fail to apply the proper stops 2% of the account size* or you can do 2% on the notional value of the trade but I would not recommend due to getting stopped out prematurally. With demand for natural gas increasing in the winter months and some of the supply being cut (Nordstream 2) there is a global shortage and dont think that our leaders won't share they are masked as globalists. Until they realize that kicking that can down the road until we realize we cannot server everyone in the world there will be prices to pay for the consumer but also opportunity in the commodities markets.
"Good Luck Ace"
-Kewl Kat
Bobby's homework assignment Pt 312. 9. 22 This is part three do Bobby's homework assignment arrange boxes. I think range boxes will be the hardest part for somebody new. I wouldn't use it if I didn't think it was important. I think it's something you can develop pretty adequately in a month or so, and a month is no time at all. If you can figure out the range boxes without actually Trading so that you avoid stress, and a boy making trade decisions based on stress, you will learn these tools faster and better. It is asinine to trade a system that you just learned about whiteout paper trading is first. You can't make money when you're using systems four indicators that you haven't worked with and tested first.
Bobby's homework assignment part 212. 9. 22 Bobby's homework assignment part 2 working with range boxes, and making some comparisons to the other line tools. Range boxes do not use specific pivots, the other tools will use specific pivot points. The formation of the first range box is exactly where I want it, but I gave a very sloppy presentation so I will do a part 3 to clarify the first range box. The rest of the video Is good enough so that I don't have to redo the video.
Bobby's homework assignment 12.9.22 pt112. 9. 22 Bobby's homework assignment PART 1: Working with range boxes to get the information that we need from them. Making some distinctions between range boxes and other tools such as extensions.
Dec 9,22-NG-Didn't go as low as is shouldSo how many of you missed getting in on the long trade this week? I DID!!
Piss me off - I was expecting price to get to the late Oct low of around 5 - I actually had my Buy order in at 5 and as we all know, it never got that low. So I was without a trade this week.
Now it's back up to 6 so I missed an 800 pt profit - oh well - at least I didn't lose any money :-)
We will have to see next week where price goes...good chance it might keep going up - colder weather, the War etc. Even though Oil is tanking - who knows, maybe Oil will recover next week. Anyway, I digress...
I hope everyone has an awesome Holiday Season. I have 2 weeks off work so I know I will have an awesome time!! :-)
Tons of food - tons of people - tons of visits to an from my home. Time to reconnect with everyone and have some bloody fun!
Take care and stay safe.
Heiko
