Heading back to $76 Too oversold at the moment we’re heading back to $76 and possibly beyond before end of Summer. Culminating in a crash in Q4 along with worsening Recession
WBS1! trade ideas
Short Term Elliott Wave Structure in Oil (CL_F) Favors DownsideShort Term Elliott Wave in Oil (CL_F) shows incomplete Elliott Wave bearish sequence from 04.12.2024 high. Down from there, wave 1 ended at 76.15 like the 1 hour chart below shows. Rally in wave 2 unfolded in a zig zag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 78.05 and dips in wave ((b)) ended at 77.68. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 80.63 which completed wave 2 in higher degree.
US Oil has resumed lower in wave 3. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 76.39 and wave ((ii)) rally ended at 77.52. The CL_F then nested lower with wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 76.62. Wave (ii) of ((iii)) ended at 77.34. The commodity extended lower in wave (iii) towards 72.48 and wave (iv) ended at 73.69. Wave (v) lower is still developing. As market stays below 73.69 high, we are calling for one more low to wave (v) of ((iii)) and wave ((iii)) in higher degree. Once wave ((iii)) ended, expect near term rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing as wave ((iv)) for further downside.
2024-06-04 - a daily price action after hour update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
wti crude oil
comment: Yeah oil again. This is in play and you should look for strong momentum trades.
current market cycle: Bear trend
key levels: 70-77
bull case: Yesterday I said bulls need to keep it above 74 or we see 72. Low of the day was 72.48. 1h 20ema was resistance and bulls need a close above that. Still the same argument as yesterday. They need to stop new lows and make market go sideways. They also retested the bear channel from last week, from which we broke below, and they were rejected. Only thing they have going for now is that on higher tf you can clearly see 3 pushes down. Would still not look to buy other than scalping.
Invalid below 70
bear case: Globex marked the high of the day and the 15m 20ema was resistance until 1h before US open. From there the market was in a trading range until it touched the 1h 20ema and sold off again. Bears want to keep the momentum going to get to 70 because that would be a clear brake of the bull trend line. Measured move from the last 5 trading days would bring us to 64. Next target for bears is a trade below 72 and then 70 if the momentum keeps going but we are near the lower bear channel line and market will probably need to move sideways to up first.
short term: It’s only going down so look for short entries. I expect a pull-back soon but it could just be a shallow one where we move sideways.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday
trade of the day: If you weren’t short during Globex, tricky to trade tbh. You could scalp every new high for a short but you really need to know what you are doing. Can also just not trade this or wait for the 1h 20ema touch for a short.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Oversold offers a buy opportunity.WTI Crude Oil has turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 29.383, MACD = -1.620, ADX = 31.641) as the price is approaching the bottom of the 2 month Channel Down. As long as it remains under the 1D MA50, the long term trend will be bearish but the oversold conditions and the 1D MACD, which is replicating the early December 2023 bottom pattern, call for a low risk short term buy opportunity. We are targeting the top of the Channel Down and no higher than the 0.382 Fibonacci level (TP = 76.00).
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The Overlooked Impact of Lower Crude Oil Prices on Inflation Everyone talks about higher CPI when crude is up, but ignores it when prices drop.
Right now, lower crude oil is actually helping to soften inflation and weaken the dollar.
Keep an eye on the neckline around $70—but it might not be easy to break.
CL waiting for BOS on 15 min to go longCL waiting for BOS and pullback for entry from 15 min fvg LONG
Crude Oil - Turbo TuesdayWell yesterday all targets where hit and some!
Today we have more targets to meet and London has not dissapointed so far
NY we will see what happens but for now I have Monthly ssl and weekly CE of wick and the Daily SSL as 3 main draws that will act as Bearish Bias.
That is the Forecast!
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST: NASDAQ, SP500, DOW, CRUDE OIL (Part 2)We are covering the indices and crude oil in this video.
Providing analysis for the week of June 3-7th.
2024-06-03 - a daily price action after hour update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
wti crude oil
comment: In my weekly outlook I was bullish for 80 again, unless bears produced strong momentum below 76 and that was basically just on trading hour today where sold off for 232 ticks. 75 was the price I was talking about for weeks now and bears had a strong bear day down to 74. Depending on how you draw the bull trend line from the weekly/monthly chart starting in 2021-08, we are close enough or right on it. I do think bears surprised enough today to get another leg down because they clearly broke below the bear channel from last week. 72 is an obvious next target or the 2023 close at 71.6.
current market cycle: Bear trend
key levels: 70-77
bull case: The best the bulls can hope for is sideways movement and maybe a retest of the lower bear channel line around 74.5. Every touch of the 1h 20ema is violently sold and until that changes, bulls have no arguments on their side. They need to keep it above 74 or we will probably see 72 fast.
Invalid below 74
bear case: Bears did enough damage today to make bulls very cautious. Breaks below a bear channel with accelerated selling are not that common so it’s a strong breakout. No one knows where most algo’s draw the big bull trend line so we will probably find out over the next days. Right now it’s waiting for a pull-back to maybe the 15m or 1h 20ema where we wait for confirmation of another leg down. I got measured move targets between 70 and 72.
short term: Sideways to down - I wait for a pull-back or another strong momentum sell
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this tomorrow or Wednesday
trade of the day: Selling while the bar 10 was forming. I told my room to sell at 15:39 and we were short from 75.92 for +90 and immediately after another short on the bounce for +50.
Crude Oil Price Susceptible to Test of February LowThe price of oil may attempt to test the February low ($71.41) as it falls for the fourth consecutive day.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
Crude extends the series of lower highs and lows from last week to push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) towards oversold territory, and the oscillator may show the bearish momentum gathering pace should it push 30 for the first time this year.
A break/close below the $72.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $73.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region may push the price of oil towards $71.50 (38.2% Fibonacci extension), with a breach below the February low ($71.41) opening up the January low ($69.28).
Nevertheless, failure to break/close below the $72.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $73.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region may keep the RSI above 30, with a move above $76.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) bringing the $78.50 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to $79.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) area on the radar.
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
Crude Monday Drab Bias and ForecastI am HTF bearish on Crude OiL
I have PD arrays marked out that should be respected if market was to retrace and take some BSL.
The targets for today are Lows marked out.
Pretty simple.
Stay bellow 1hr fvg and 1hr -OB = BEARISH
Close above the 1hr FVG start looking for short term BSL
Crude**CrudeOil:**
This week's forecast is for the price to fall to the bottom of the channel and reverse to the top of the channel.
#202423 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
wti crude oil futures
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls rejected 76 area 4 times now. At some point one side will concede and we see a bigger move. Patience pays. Bulls want retest of the daily 20ema and bear channel next (78.8). Afterwards break above the bear channel. Bears had two clear pushes down and now a tripple bottom. I think they will give up and market trades back up again. But I wait for clear confirmation on this.
comment: Here is also my comment from last week “Market in total balance 76 - 80. Buy low and sell high. Right now I prefer a spike below to around 75 which bulls gladly buy and we then trade back to 83 over the next weeks. Invalid below 74.”
Nothing changed in Oil. Bulls got a very small spike above 80 which was rejected again and we are 77 again. Play the range until we get a breakout with follow through. One funny “coincidence” is that the 50% pull-back from the 2021 low to the 2022 high, is about 78.3 and now guess where the freaking 50% pb of this trading range is. Market is always giving some hints. Learn to spot them.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 76 - 80
bull case: Ascending triangle with around 4 highs and 4 lows. Market is in breakout mode and will probably test lower or higher prices next. I have absolutely no idea where we will break out first so just do the high probability thing here, buy low and sell high when you see good signal bars. Bulls see this as the lows of this trading range and want to reverse here for at least 80 again.
Invalidation is below 67.
bear case: Bears sold 80 again and will probably take profits here at 77 or try to get 76 again. If they get a breakout below, we will probably test 75, which is a price I thought we would test for 5-7 weeks now. It’s a bad sell here at 77 for bears so best they can get is sideways movement.
Invalidation is above 80.5.
outlook last week: “Kinda neutral 76 - 80. Clear trading range with tails above and below. Market in balance. R:R here is with the bulls for test of daily 20ema at 78.6 again.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 77.72 and now we are at 76.99. High of the week was 80.62 and I said we will probably at least hit the daily ema again. That was a perfect outlook for at least 90 ticks but could have held til 80 or higher. 80 Would have been 228 ticks. Hope you made some.
short term: R:R is on the bull side here at the bottom of this range. I wait for confirmation on Monday before going long for 80 again. Below 76 we could get to 75 but that would require strong momentum for me to go short down here.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 83 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle and now we test the lower trend line again. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
Update: removed bull flag/bear trend, whatever you want to call it. It’s the same and you trade it the same. Added expanding triangle trend lines
CL - 8 Hrly - Weekly Forecast - 03 June 2024This is my weekly forecast of Oil for the week of 03 June 2024
We have closed below a key support level on the Monthly, so I now see this as bearish.
Looking to short at the daily inefficiency (FVG) for targets below liquidity lows.
CRUDEOIL Buy Setup 3 hrs TGT with in a 3 daysSuper valid-looking! Leave a comment if you like my entry setup. This share is for educational learning purposes only, and I am not responsible for your profit or loss. Note: For more details, check the chart."
Mastering Top-Down Analysis: Spot High Probability SetupsDiscover how to elevate your trading game using a powerful top-down approach across multiple time frames. Using real-time examples from Oil Crude Futures, you'll learn to identify the key price signatures that signal high-probability entries.
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Thursday Forecast Crude!So my target for this week will be the weekly open.
Simple as that sounds we do have some bsl above however Im expecting price to deliver BEARish as per HTF and the rejection for the Daily FVG
Be aware that trading is light we are in the last couple of days of the Month.
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE Long above $80.00 Per Barrel...?NYMEX:CL1!
"If you train hard, you'll not only be hard, you'll be hard to beat." -Herschel Walker
Oil has been struggling to Break above $80.00 Per Barrel roughly this whole month of MAY and this week we could actually see buyers gain strength and get over the hump... However that is a long shot prediction! Now if this actually does come to pass then this is what I'll need to see in order to go LONG...
1) Price is currently trading around a 4Hr Supply Zone. ** I want to see buyers push price up N break the supply zone and continue towards the HTF S&R Zone....
2) We have a HTF Descending eR/LQ Trendline that I want to Buyers Breakout N push towards $80.00 Per Barrel... I would like to see a retest of the Failed 4Hr Supply Zone and eR/LQ trendline for buyers to gain more strength for pushing towards our target...
3) Now if we can get the sequence of events to take place that I stated above, Then we will wait for the break above $80.00 Per barrel with confirmed candle closures above price and above the S&R Zone... I want to see confirmed candle closures on the 30m TF N Below to establish conviction in the move from buyers to enter LONG....
4) Now if we can get the Break above $80.00 Per barrel with confirmed candle closures above price and above the S&R Zone then I'll Enter LONG and Target the break of the 4Hr Supply Zone price ($81.10 Per Barrel) 110 pts to be exact in our favor... Ill set my stop just below the S&R Zone EQ Level giving me roughly around a 2.7RR....
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE Long above $80.00 Per Barrel...?NYMEX:CL1!
"If you train hard, you'll not only be hard, you'll be hard to beat." -Herschel Walker
Oil has been struggling to Break above $80.00 Per Barrel roughly this whole month of MAY and this week we could actually see buyers gain strength and get over the hump... However that is a long shot prediction! Now if this actually does come to pass then this is what I'll need to see in order to go LONG...
1) Price is currently trading around a 4Hr Supply Zone. ** I want to see buyers push price up N break the supply zone and continue towards the HTF S&R Zone....
2) We have a HTF Descending eR/LQ Trendline that I want to Buyers Breakout N push towards $80.00 Per Barrel... I would like to see a retest of the Failed 4Hr Supply Zone and eR/LQ trendline for buyers to gain more strength for pushing towards our target...
3) Now if we can get the sequence of events to take place that I stated above, Then we will wait for the break above $80.00 Per barrel with confirmed candle closures above price and above the S&R Zone... I want to see confirmed candle closures on the 30m TF N Below to establish conviction in the move from buyers to enter LONG....
4) Now if we can get the Break above $80.00 Per barrel with confirmed candle closures above price and above the S&R Zone then I'll Enter LONG and Target the break of the 4Hr Supply Zone price ($81.10 Per Barrel) 110 pts to be exact in our favor... Ill set my stop just below the S&R Zone EQ Level giving me roughly around a 2.7RR....
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
Crude Oil, Not Out of the Woods YetThe chart above references continuous (front-month) Crude Oil, below we are discussing the July contract.
Crude Oil (July)
Yesterday’s close: Settled 79.83, up 2.11
WTI Crude Oil futures cleared the psychological $80 mark, but can it settle above? A major catalyst to start the week was strong travel demand data from the U.S. over the Memorial Day weekend and from China of late. We also believe geopolitical tailwinds are more relevant than headlines may give credit at the moment. Ultimately, weakness last week came on the heels of the White House announcing a release of Gasoline reserves ahead of the weekend and this was quickly shaken off and further helped create a technical bottom at a critical area of support we have been highlighting.
Still, price action is not in the clear, and we find it a good time to monetize some of this move at least if you’ve been able to capitalize as it is testing major three-star resistance at 81.15-81.28, aligning a gap with the 50% retracement back to the April 12th high. Additionally, the 50-day moving average comes in at 80.84.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 81.15-81.28***, 82.03-82.34***
Pivot: 79.97-80.11***
Support: 79.46-79.61**, 79.01-79.05*, 78.66-78.78***, 77.72-78.05***
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Crude Oil continue with the Uptrend On Crude Oil, it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 79.85 .
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Strong uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
Wednesday Forecast Crude OilWe had a very expansive two days From the Bank Holiday Monday and Tuesday.
I do expect the market to slow down a little before we start to move higher to 81.50 as long as price stays above the 1hr fvg and the 1hr +ob my bias will be Bullish.
If we close bellow these pd arrays then a retracement is in order and different targets will have to be looked at.
Pretty simple
