Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE SHORT out of the CURRENT Consolidation?NYMEX:CL1!
"I DONT FOLD UNDER PRESSURE, Great athletes perform better under pressure so put pressure on me." -Floyd Mayweather Jr.
Top of the Sunday Morning Family. I hope we all are well and in gr8 spirits as we get ready to start this trading week. Here I have constructed this SHORT narrative on OIL, out of the Current Range we are trading inside of. The consolidation zone ranges from prices of roughly ($79.30 to $77.20)... Here is what I will need to see in order to enter SHORT and target the 4Hr Swing EQ Level ($76.55).
1) On the Daily TF buyers have pushed price back up into an un-mitigated Daily Supply Zone. & Now that we have Mitigated this Daily Supply, we could see sellers step back into the Market and push price back down.
**** I would like to see buyers sweep the High of the Consolidation zone on the 1Hr TF! If price can break higher than ($79.30) then this would be a good sign for me. Now I want this to be a (Liquidity Sweep SOLELY with no real follow through from buyers) basically manipulation to the upside then BOOM!!! Sellers come in and drop the market off a cliff stopping everyone LONG and Sellers coming to sweep the eR/LQ Trendline to the downside...
2) Price is currently riding a HTF{ 4Hr Ascending eR/LQ Trendline } that I know is going to be swept with strong sellers to the downside and this is the move I'm looking for the HOUSE to CAPITALIZE ON....
3) The EQ level of the Consolidation range is what I need to see price break underneath with confirmed candle closures on the 30m TF & Below before I enter SHORT... The EQ level of the Range is roughly ($78.25)... ****I want to price sweep the Ascending eR/LQ then break and close with strong conviction underneath the Consolidation EQ Level ($78.25) on the 30m TF & below.
**** Now if and when we can get these sequence of events to take place then I will be compelled to place my Limit SHORT on the retest of ($78.25)Consolidation EQ Level and Target the 4Hr Swing EQ Level Below ($76.55) 170 Points SHORT in our favor...
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
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WBS1! trade ideas
Crude Oil Beginning Minor Wave BCrude oil has completed a clear count of five waves up, completing minor wave A. It should now be starting a decline that will make up wave B. While it is impossible to specify a shape or target for wave B with any certainty so early, statistically, B waves inside of zigzags usually form zigzags themselves and usually retrace at least 50% of wave A.
Bitcoin silver oil 11:00 June 21st 2024 I think Bitcoin is close to a reversal higher and I would be looking for that reversal Sunday night or sometime on Monday. silver had a great opening price trade with the 2 bar reversal it moved about $5000 per contract where it came to sellers. so silver is a fast Market that quickly gave you a very good return as a seller but my concern would be that sometime during the remainder of today but more likely when the Market opens after the weekend that's when I would expect to find buyers... but I would have to see how the Market's trading before I make that decision. would I put on a long trade going in to the weekend? no. because there are no signs of buyers yet. we'll talk about oil this weekend if I get a chance.
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
Crude Oil Thursday Rumble...As we are in Bullish territory on the HTF the Daily FVG bellow is where I am anticipating price to retrace too leading upto 0930est... Does it have to retrace there? No.
However I am Looking at Bullish bias towards the Daily V.i Marked in the chart for a Target and Forecast going forward...
Pretty simple.
Crude Oil Finishing Minor Wave A of EI can clearly count five waves up, implying that wave A should be about finished. Prices also seemed to have stalled at the resistance caused by the end of minor wave B at the previous zigzag of wave D (red resistance line). The next wave down should be wave B of a zigzag for which the 50% Fibonacci retracement level is a reasonable target but by no means the only option.
Once the final zigzag up finishes, we should see a breakout from the triangle on the downside.
CRUDEOIL UPDATE || JUNE 18- 19Crude Oil Update: Potential Bullish Move on the Horizon (Informative)
Heads up, commodity traders! Crude oil is currently exhibiting bullish signals, suggesting a potential price increase. Here's a breakdown for your reference:
Target: 6840 (This is the level the price might reach if the bullish trend continues)
Stop-Loss: 6760 (This is a pre-determined price point where you would automatically sell your position to limit potential losses)
Keep an eye on relevant news and events that might impact the crude oil market. This can help you make more informed trading decisions.
Crude Turbo Tuesday'sYesterday we saw a nice bulish displacement and I would like price to stay above the 1hr FVG..
We can wick bellow on the 1hr but leading into CME open I would wait for bullish price to reach to the 80.00 level which is the Daily FVG..
Once we close inside the Daily FVG we can start looking at CE of it.
Three Simple Technical Narratives Driving Crude OilPlease note that the chart above is the continuous front-month Crude, and we are referencing the August contract below.
Crude Oil (August)
Last week’s close: Settled 78.26, up 0.11
August WTI Crude Oil futures are front month and price action has consolidated terrifically out above the 21-day moving average since last Monday’s strong session. However, as this week unfolds, there are two stories overhead. First, price action has not traded above the 54-day moving average since breaking below it on May 1st, and this comes in at 79.34. Second, there is unfinished gap settlement resistance from the April 30th monthly settle aligning to create rare major four-star resistance with a .618 retracement. While the 54-dma is resistance, one may view the gap settlement as unfinished business and a bullseye that must be tested.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 78.85-78.94***, 80.37-80.61****
Pivot: 78.11
Support: 77.33-77.42***, 75.46-75.75***
#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
wti crude oil futures
Quote from last week:
bull case: The best the bulls can hope for, is for the lows to hold and to move sideways and hit the daily ema again. They failed at keeping it above 75, which was huge support. Last bear leg inside this bigger trading range was 11 weeks long from high to low and we are currently at 9 weeks. Bulls will want to find support here around 70-72 and trade back up to at least 78 over the next 8-12 weeks.
comment: After Monday there was no question that bulls took control again and the bear trend is over. Bears now fight to keep this a lower high and retest the 72.48 low but for now, market is in balance around 78. Bulls want to break out of the bear channel and test 80 again.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 72-79
bull case: Strong week by the bulls with 3 pushes up but still a lower high. Their next target is to get back above 80.22. Right now they have momentum going but big down, big up mostly creates confusion and that means trading range. Above 79.5 I will probably long for 80. They need to stay above 77 or odds favor a retest of the lows below 74.
Invalidation is below 77.
bear case: Huge bear surprise the week before and now a big bull surprise. Most reasonable thing here is for the market to move more sideways, probably still inside the very big triangle 73 - 81.5. If bears get below 77, they want to retest the lows below 74, which is also what I think has the slightly better odds next week but I would wait for confirmation.
Invalidation is above 80.6.
outlook last week:
“Neutral because I think we will hit the daily ema again and a retest of 72.5ish. I am not a fortune teller so I don’t know which comes first. I will watch the price action and give daily updates here on substack and intraday in my trading room.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 75.53 and now we are at 78.45. I said we will hit the daily 20ema which was 140 upwards. On Monday there was no question we will get there, so I hope you made some. Did not expect bears to just disappear afterwards and let the market trade above for the whole week.
short term: Neutral right under the bear channel line and daily ema at 77.5. Can break to either side.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. Market will probably move more inside this big range until we get a new big cycle to either side. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
chart update: Adjusted both two-legged corrections to fit the current pattern better but the C target is very questionable as of now. We need more price action to know where market wants to go from here.
CL / Crude Oil ShortContext:
• Monthly: First signs of bearish orderflow. Bearish FVG in the making
• Weekly: Bearish FVGs getting respeced
• Daily: Rejection and break below prev. day low. Caution because of two bullish FVGs
Idea:
• 1h-4h Mitigation Block with 1h close below prev day low.
• Respecting 1h FVgs
• Inside current 1h candle on 15min closed last 15min bullish FVG
• Potentially building a balanced price range on 15min
→ Long around prev. day low about 77.88
Target:
• 1st would be currend day low
• 2nd: Upper limit of daily FVG at 77.22
Entry / Stop:
• Reversal Setup with stop above the entry signal
• Or at 77.88 with stop about 78.05
Signal invalidated:
• breaking lower withoug looking back
• Prive going above 78.05
I want the current 15min-Candle to close inside the range of the previous 15min candle.
Be careful about News in about 30minutes!
Please feel free to comment
Crude Oil - Bullish long-term - Bearish short-termCrude oil moved as we expected. Now in the next days we can expect it to follow the red scenario and reach the $75 area. If we see prices around $75 I'll put another update.
Context is BULLISH for Crude oil and DXY is showing weakness after yesterday's FOMC meeting and the market is more confident about the rate cuts in September than last week. SO BE CAREFUL with your short positions.
Crude oil eyes $80, but resistance loomsWTI is on track for a bullish engulfing week to snap a 3-week losing streak. And as it fell over 17% from the April high, it could pave the way for further gains in the coming weeks. However, there are plenty of resistance levels around the $80 that could spur bears from the side lines.
The May VPOC and VAH sit around Wednesday's high, and the monthly R1 and weekly R2 near the May high. So whilst another crack at $80 seems more likely than note, the $80 area could be an interesting area to fade into.
Strong support sits around $75.50, making it a viable target for bears and area for bulls to reconsider entering for an anticipated move above $80.
Crude Futures Push Above The 200 DMATechnical Momentum Strengthens
Crude Oil futures are rebounding in 2024 after trading above the 200-day moving average at $77.54. The technical perspective shows momentum studies rising from oversold territories, while the 9-day moving average trades below the 18-day. DMI- is slightly above DMI +, indicating that the market is still in a correction phase, while the Average True Range declines to $1.77 daily, showing an uptick in volatility.
API Inventories Decline
API Inventory has decreased recently, indicating a tighter supply picture. Recent API inventory data shows a decline of 2.4 million barrels. The current EIA inventories are 455 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 474 million barrels for this period.
Cushing stocks in the Midwest show 35 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 42 million barrels.
Middle East Tensions Rise
The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, which fuels investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions have increased recently, indicating the possibility of a widening Middle Eastern conflict in the future. Traders will remain focused on inflation data, inventory productions, and the direction of economic data.
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