#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Neutral between 68 - 73. Bulls have no tried to have a daily close above 73 for a month and could not get it. Friday’s bear bar looks like the turning point from which we will test lower. First bear target is a daily close below 70, followed by 68 and then 67. I doubt we get below 66.8 and rather print another nested triangle.
Quote from last week:
comment: The trading range expanded some but not much. On the weekly chart the September and October lows do seem to be respected and holding but since bulls fail to trade above 72.33, we are forming more nested triangles inside the big one on the monthly chart. For now the range is 65 - 72.33 until broken.
comment: Market is now trying for 4 weeks to get below 73 and still failing. Friday’s bar is decent enough that bears could have given up and market has to drop down to 68 or lower to 67 to find more buyers. The trading range 68 - 73 is still not broken and until it is, that is the range to play. I just expecting bears to be stronger next week than the bulls.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 68 - 73
bull case: Bulls failed so many times below 73 now, they will probably only try again at 68 or even lower. We are making higher lows since September, so for now I expect buyers to step in above 67.5. If bulls keep it above 70, I would be surprised and we chop more between 70 and 73 until one side clearly gives up.
Invalidation is below 66.7.
bear case: Bears established strong resistance under 73 and we still have an open gap there. Their next target is to get a daily close below 70 to make much more bulls cover and then I expect the selling to accelerate down to 68 or even 67. Funny thing to watch currently is that the daily, weekly and monthly 20ema are as flat and close together like I have never seen it on markets before. This market is in absolute balance between 70 and 72. Mean reversion strategies for Oil must have made a killing in 2024.
Invalidation is above 73.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral again. Clear range and bearish pattern with limited downside. Scalp and don’t overstay your welcome in positions.
→ Last Sunday we traded 69.49 and now we are at 70.38. Good outlook but it’s not hard to be neutral and be right about it in this market.
short term: Neutral again. Range is unbroken, play it until it breaks.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
