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WBS1! trade ideas

Recap: Short below LIS/Yearly Open Crude OilNYMEX:CL1! Another day and EdgeClear brings you another recap where one of the highlighted scenarios in our weekly plan for WTI crude oil, published on February 24, 2025 , played out as expected. Our Scenario 3 looked at price discovery extending the 2025 range into Q4 2024 lower distribution. Our analysis indicated an initial move lower bouncing from CVPOC 2022 support. The key was price moving below key LIS/yearly open. We did not see a bearish head and shoulders pattern develop, however, the rest of the plan played out as expected. Note the price action till Friday, 28th Feb 2025. We have been consistently providing traders with a roadmap for WTI crude oil with our thoughts and opinions on the market. WTI crude oil is a fundamental product that is affected by several factors, such as: macro, geopolitical, economic, supply, demand, and oil production dynamics. Our analysis considers these developments along with auction market theory and key indicators that may be important to watch at times. As an example, for our January 13, 2025, blog , we noted increased volume with increased open interest that drove bullish sentiment in crude oil prices. We also highlighted potential short opportunities that played out per our plan. For last week’s blog, we noted the overall trend in volume and open interest falling, indicating a potential move lower. This combined with multiple tests of our key LIS/ yearly open, strengthened our thesis for further price discovery lower. In our blog, we have highlighted two key ranges: $70 - $75 - Q1 2025 Value Area $65 - $70 - Q4 2024 Lower Distribution Focus is shifting towards oil market fundamentals i.e., supply, demand, and production outlook. While headline news may drive short-term and intraday volatility, investors and market participant’s focus will shift towards oil market fundamentals. On March 3rd, 2025, OPEC+ reaffirmed its decision from December 5, 2024, to proceed with gradual and flexible return of 2.2 mbpd voluntary cuts, starting April 1, 2025. It provided a detailed table along with a cautious approach should this decision require any amendments. In our analysis, while trade war and tariff tantrum create uncertainty around demand outlook, any news providing clarity on tariffs will be considered net positive.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Crude Oil – A $10 Short with a Valuable LessonThe price hit the Upper Median Line Handle (U-MLH) three times and was rejected each time (red circles). These were all high-potential short trade opportunities. However, none of these short trades managed to reach the Profit Target Goal (PTG) at the Center Line (CL). When the price repeatedly fails to hit the CL, it often builds up momentum for a larger move. The last short opportunity from the U-MLH was at Circle #3. If you missed it, you have another chance now. Breaking the "shelf" (the petrol support line) is just like breaking a Median Line or a Center Line. It’s not magic—though it may sometimes seem like it. The three slanted petrol lines extending to the right function the same way as a fork. So, we just broke the (petrol) Center Line, right? Now, where is the price likely to go after breaking this (petrol) Center Line? That’s right! There is about an 80% probability that it will move towards the (petrol) Lower Median Line Parallel. What a coincidence—it aligns exactly with the red Center Line! Of course, this is all based on probabilities, not guarantees. We can't predict the future, but we can rely on rules, statistics, and knowledge. I hope you learned something today. If you enjoy my work, I’d appreciate it if you like and share it with others. Have a great day! 😊
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
Bitcoin crude oil3.3.25 Bitcoin had an incredible move lower and then quickly came back into the original range box... the take-home message on bitcoin is that it's trading in a Range and while it is not at the new high there's a reasonable chance that this Market will go higher from here. more has to happen before I would be bearish on bitcoin. I started talking about crude oil and I didn't finish... I would not be a buyer or a seller on crude and I'll clarify it on another video. I will also talk about gold and silver. I spent most of the time showing you pattern setups and reversal patterns and ABCD patterns and range boxes and that you trade range boxes to double if they go higher or they double and go lower and when you use that relationship the market typically takes you to the next level. I use a handful of tools and then I make my decisions and it's always about where the buyers and sellers are and something that I call to bar reversals. I always look at markets to decide if they are expanding or Contracting because those properties if you follow them will help you decide how far the market will move in your favor if you're long or short and they allow for you to have small stops and if you use the techniques you'll know what a realistic Target is as a buyer or a seller.. be patient with my style of delivery eventually you'll see the patterns and will decide if this is the way you want to trade but like any system you should get used to drawing the patterns and always be cognizant of whether a markets trending or ranging or is expanding or Contracting.
NYMEX:CL1!
by ScottBogatin
#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 300 point range last week and we closed near the middle of it. Bulls buy new lows and bears sell every rip close or above the 4h 20ema. Bear channel is still valid but it’s getting weaker. We have also touched my bull trend line from 2024-09 and market has formed a triangle with a nested bear wedge. No big moves, both sides make money. So either scalp the range or don’t look at this. Update after crypto reserve news spike: Bear channel could still hold and if it does, the move down will be even more violent because of so many new trapped traders. Above 97k the bear channel is dead and we continue sideways inside the previous range 90k - 110k. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 72 bull case: Bulls have to be content with buying new lows and scalping a couple of points. Every rip is sold and they just can’t catch a break. Until they have a daily close above 72 again, there is nothing going for them. Sure they keep new lows shallow and the bear trend is getting weaker but that does not help any bull if they don’t make higher highs again. Very low chance that bulls see this as a very broad bull channel where this leg down was a test of the breakout price 70. If you look at a weekly chart, we are still making higher lows and higher highs. Invalidation is below 67.8. bear case: Bears fear that the bull trend line from September is bigger support and the bear trend is getting weaker. That is likely a reason why we will probably see more sideways movement now and less new lows. Bears are still favored until we have higher highs above 72 again. Shorts below 71 are bad, no matter how you put it. Invalidation is above 72. short term: Neutral. Shorts close or above 71 are fine and longs below 69. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion. current swing trade: None chart update: Updated bear channel.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.2-28.2 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 13th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), mature 1st phase. The February 24 pivot forecast reversed crude from the strong 69.80 support level. This level was broken and eroded during the week, as I predicted last time. Based on timing and the chart, there are signs of the second phase beginning. In this context, I closed my short position from February 3. The price movement from the February 3 extreme forecast on CL futures provided $2K per contract. ⚠️ I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. The next extreme forecast is March 3. Another extreme forecast is on March 19, combined with retrograde Mercury on March 17.
NYMEX:CL1!
by irinawest
"Crude Oil’s Next Wave: A Bearish Ride Down the Elliott LadderLooking at the CL weekly chart through an Elliott Wave lens, I’m seeing a compelling setup for a bearish move in crude oil. The price action suggests we’re poised to break below the key support zone between $67 and $65—a level that’s held firm but looks ready to give way. If this plays out, I’d expect a drop toward the $54 area, and should momentum really kick in, we could even see $50 as the next target. The wave structure aligns with a classic corrective decline, and the momentum indicators are hinting at exhaustion in the prior uptrend. What’s your take on this—any counters or confirmations from your charts?
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by COLOMBINI-TRADING
WTI Crude: Uptrend on the Brink—Break or Bounce Ahead?WTI crude oil is testing key uptrend support, offering fresh trading setups depending on how the price action evolves. With Tuesday’s bearish key reversal candle, RSI (14) trending lower and MACD confirming the bearish momentum signal, a downside bias is favoured. However, with crude already down sharply—and past rebounds from the trendline often proving violent—patience is key. A clean break below the uptrend could open the door for shorts, with a stop above for protection. Buyers have stepped in around $67–$66.33, making that a key zone to watch. A break lower would put the September 2024 swing low in play. If support holds, the setup could be flipped. Longs could be established above with a stop beneath for protection. Former channel support sits near $69.60 today—making it an initial upside target—with Tuesday’s high around $71.30 next on the radar. Good luck! DS
NYMEX:CL1!
by FOREXcom
WTI Crude Oil CL Futures Weekly Plan AnalysisNYMEX:CL1! In this tradingview blog, we will refer to our February 18, 2025 weekly trade plan for NYMEX WTI CL futures . Last week, we outlined two potential scenarios, with our primary scenario playing out—though not exactly as expected. Prices reversed lower more sharply than anticipated, offering minimal pullbacks on the 4-hour timeframe. However, when analyzing the hourly chart, our plan aligned well, as prices ultimately reverted to key LIS/yearly open bull support, which also confluences with the 2025 VAL. We highlighted the following key levels: 2025 mcVPOC: 72.82 Feb 2025 mcVAH: 72.48 2025 mcVAL: 70.56 Yearly Open/ LIS: 70.52 Key Bull Support/ Confluence Zone: 70.52 - 70.12 Scenario 1 stated “Range bound week ahead.” We noted the following: “In this scenario we expect range bound price action contained within Feb 2025 micro composite Value Area.” Consistency is key in everything we do. We are creatures of habit. Energy flows where attention goes. We provide these weekly plans to traders and the wider public to showcase that, instead of strategy hopping, a trader can achieve consistency by sticking to one approach. If that approach is not working, perhaps it is time to go back to the drawing board. Whether that be backtesting, walk-forward optimization or incorporating key market statistics that you have gathered and observed. The goal of these weekly plans is to provide you with a structured roadmap that you can adapt to your own trading style. In our experience, while there are many ways to approach the market—whether through different indicators or methods for drawing levels and plans—staying consistent in your approach often leads to identifying similar key levels. Volume, price and time leave behind footprints. Although they do not provide a certain future, they can help you stay grounded, accepting the random nature of the markets, thinking in terms of probabilities and perhaps learning more so you can also gain similar insights. As Bruce Lee said, “I do not fear a man who practiced different kicks a thousand times. I would fear a man who practiced the same kick a thousand times.”
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
WTI crude oil shows the potential for a bounceThis is a bit of a scrappy chart, but I still see the potential for a cheeky bounce. WTI crude oil is trying to snap a 4-week losing streak, by stalling around a 50% retracement level. Last week's candle was an inverted hammer, and the previous two weeks have both closed above the 50% level. A bullish divergence formed on the daily RSI (2) ahead price action finding support at the 200-day SMA and 200-day EMA. From here, the bias remains bullish while prices hold above last week's low. Bulls could seek dips towards the 200-day MAs, with a near-term upside target of $72. A break above which brings $74 into focus, near the monthly pivot point. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
Is CL looking bearish? Short below LIS/Yearly Open?NYMEX:CL1! Macro update: Will we see another bullish leg like Jan 2025? Or does crude oil have room to move further lower and resume its downtrend after putting in the high of the year? In our opinion, most headlines since the new US administration have already been priced in by market participants. Crude oil fundamentals—encompassing supply, production, and demand outlook—are likely to influence prices more significantly than headline news. Our analysis indicates that the market has rebalanced, trading above the Composite Volume Point of Control (CVPOC) at $68.45 per barrel, as derived from our 2022 anchored Composite Volume profile. Furthermore, the 2025 Volume profile is exhibiting a “b”-shaped formation, signaling a move toward balance in its lower range. From a market auction perspective, two key price ranges are established: Q4 2024 Lower Distribution: Approximately $65–$70, indicating a balanced market. Q1 2025 Value Area: Approximately $70–$75, also reflecting balance. In our analysis, it’s essential to adopt a broader view by examining higher timeframe levels to stay aligned with these key market levels. While intraday or intrawork trends may display bearish or bullish momentum, the overall market auction framework suggests further consolidation within these ranges—unless new developments significantly alter the crude oil fundamentals or breaking headlines emerge that have yet to be priced in. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Jan 2024 CVPOC and mCVPOC Q4 2024 confluence: 68.45 - 68.25 Key Bull Support/LIS: 69.90 - 70.50 Feb 2025 VAL: 70.80 2025 mCVPOC: 72.82 Feb 2025 VAH: 72.70 mCVAH/Jan 2025 mid: 74.96 - 74.80 Scenario 1: Price gets above key support to further consolidate within Feb 2025 Value Area Scenario 2: Intraday bullish price action with higher lows that fails to gain momentum above the 2025 VPOC. Scenario 3: Price holds below Yearly Open and LIS key support. A bearish head and shoulders pattern develops to push prices lower to test CVPOC 2022. Micro CME contracts allow for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Tariff Tantrums & Rising Inventories Weighing Down on Crude OilOne month into his presidency, Trump has injected fresh uncertainty into oil markets. His rapid-fire policies aimed at boosting production, imposing tariffs, and pushing for conflict resolutions in the Middle East and Russia—are reshaping the energy landscape. His unpredictable and bold approach to trade has left markets on edge. Bearish sentiment is being fuelled by weak economic indicators, particularly from the U.S. and China. Trump’s policies have added uncertainty, driving price swings. At the start of the month, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada (10% on Canadian oil) and 10% on Chinese goods. However, he swiftly delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada but kept the tariffs on China intact. In response, China imposed tariffs of 15% on U.S. coal & LNG and 10% on crude oil, autos, and farm equipment, fuelling fears of a broader trade war that could weaken global growth & energy demand. Trump also tightened U.S. sanctions on Iran’s crude exports and signalled stricter enforcement. While this could reduce supply, his trade policies threaten energy demand, keeping downward pressure on prices. Further supply risks emerged as Europe ramped up efforts to weaken Russia by targeting its shadow fleet and energy exports. Meanwhile, Trump’s push for peace in Ukraine and the Middle East has shown progress, lowering the geopolitical risk premium on crude. However, fresh supply concerns arose after a drone attack on a pipeline belonging to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in Russia, a key export route for Kazakhstan’s crude, disrupted shipments by 30% to 40%. Repairs are expected to take months, adding to supply fears. Ukraine also escalated drone strikes on Russian refineries, intensifying concerns over Russian crude flows already constrained by Western sanctions. Trump’s actions have had mixed effects, supporting oil prices in some cases while pressuring them in others. Combined with an oversupplied market, this has kept the overall outlook bearish, though uncertainty and short-term volatility persist. U.S. CRUDE INVENTORIES CLIMB; EIA PROJECTS LOWER WTI PRICES FOR 2025-2026 Another factor weighing on WTI prices is the steady rise in crude inventories, following seasonal trends. Stockpile rises have exceeded analyst forecasts for four consecutive weeks. Source: EIA and Investing.com U.S. energy firms have increased crude stockpiles for four consecutive weeks, the longest streak since April 2024. The EIA’s latest Short–Term Energy Outlook report ( STEO report ) reinforced a bearish outlook for WTI prices. It kept its 2025 and 2026 forecasts unchanged, with a slight 1.8% upward revision for Q1 2025. This raised the full-year 2025 estimate by 0.4% to USD 70.62/b, while the 2026 projection remained steady at USD 62.46/b. Source: EIA STEO The agency attributes the Q1 2025 price uptick to OPEC+ production cuts, which are expected to reduce global oil inventories by 0.5 million bpd. However, it kept price forecasts steady for the rest of 2025 and 2026, anticipating a supply increase from April 2025. The EIA projects global oil inventories to rise by 0.9 million bpd in H2 2025 and 1.0 million bpd in 2026, driven by higher output and sluggish demand growth. TECHNICAL INDICATORS INDICATE PERSISTENT BEARISH TREND WTI appeared set for its first weekly gain in five weeks for the week ending 21/Feb, but bearish U.S. economic data offset support from supply disruptions in Russia. The MACD indicator signals a renewed bearish trend, showing momentum has turned downward again after briefly easing. The RSI hovers near the midpoint at 41.79, below its moving average of 44.34, signalling a shift toward a renewed bearish trend. Source: TradingView Furthermore, TradingView’s technical analysis dashboard reinforces a strong bearish trend. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS For the week ending 11/Feb, managed money’s net long positions in WTI crude oil (futures & options) dropped 13% WoW, marking a third weekly decline. Short positions surged 33% to 76,375 lots, while long positions inched up 0.3% to 198,612 lots. Source: CME QuikStrike Short positions have increased week-on-week since 28/Jan, highlighting a growing bearish sentiment among managed money. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Trump’s energy, trade, and foreign policies have heightened uncertainty in oil markets, creating a push-pull effect on prices. However, the persistent supply-demand imbalance remains. Push for higher U.S. oil output and efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict will add further pressure on WTI prices by erasing war-risk premium. While short-term price spikes and volatility are more likely, they are unlikely to alter market dynamics without a significant recovery in global oil demand. Portfolio managers and traders can express a bearish view on WTI prices through CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures. These contracts provide the same crude oil exposure as standard WTI futures but at 1/10th the size, offering greater accessibility and more precise hedging options. This paper posits a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (Apr 2025) expiring on 19/Mar (MCLJ2025) with the following trade setup: • Entry: 71.50/barrel • Target: 67.50/barrel • Stop: 74/barrel • P&L at Target (per lot): +400 ((71.50 – 67.50) x 100) • P&L at Stop (per lot): -250 ((71.50 – 74.00) x 100) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.6x CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers. Investors can learn more about how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures. In collaboration with the CME Group, TradingView has launched The Leap trading competition. New and upcoming traders can hone and refine their trading skills, test their trading strategies, and feel the thrill of futures trading with a vibrant global community through this paper trading competition sponsored by CME Group using virtual money and real time market data. The competition lasts another 4 days. Please join the 60,000 others who are actively honing their trading skills using virtual money. Click here to learn more. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MCLJ2025Short
by mintdotfinance
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.2-21.2 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 12th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), mature 1st phase. Holding the short position from the February 3 extreme forecast. The first phase of the base cycle is not yet complete but is very mature. Crude is pressing against strong support at 69.80 on the April futures contract, which must either be broken or eroded. I believe the maturity of the 1st phase in this context is not coincidental. ⚠️ I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. Next pivot forecast for crude: February 24. Next extreme forecast: March 3.
NYMEX:CL1!
by irinawest