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Mini Brent Crude Futures (100 BBL)Mini Brent Crude Futures (100 BBL)Mini Brent Crude Futures (100 BBL)

Mini Brent Crude Futures (100 BBL)

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BM1! trade ideas

Brent Crude just gave my first buy signal since March 2022TECHNICALS: We’re looking at the daily chart of Brent Crude oil. We can see since March 2022, the price has indeed tanked from $136 down to $71. During that time, we can see it’s formed a large Descending Triangle pattern. This is generally a pattern which also forms what looks like a falling triangle. The selling is stronger than the buying. And this is what brings the price down. The $71 price however, is the crucial support (floor level) that’s been holding since 2021. Each time it touches this level, the price tends to bounce back up. Recently, the Brent Crude price has broken up and out of the Descending Triangle. This tells me the buyers are back and so is demand for the market. The first target will be half way between the Descending Triangle’s high at $100. Once we break that psychological $100 mark, I’ll be sure to send you the next prediction for Brent Crude. FUNDAMENTALS: It’s been a long and depressing time for the black gold commodity. We’ve seen the price drop from $135 down to $71.00, over the last two years. But now, Brent Crude is stealing the limelight. With the impending oil shortages to the soaring global demand – the trend is finally changing. In this article, we’ll go through the three main reasons why I expect Brent Crude to rally back to its $100 mark. Reason #1: The big shortage of oil A key driver of why Brent Crude is ready to rally, is due to the recent prediction by the International Energy Administration (IEA). They have stated there is an imminent oil shortage. In fact, the IEA has warned the shortage in oil will materialize in the second half of 2023. We could see demand potentially outpace supply by around 2 million barrels a day. Also, Saudi Arabia, who is the world’s biggest crude exporter, has said it will prolong its reduction in oil production by 1 million barrels per day into August 2023. This extension has followed from their sudden decision to reduce an additional million bpd for July. Then we have Russia and Algeria who will also lower their August output and export levels by 500,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd. And so, based on this, we’ve seen oil prices rise by over 5.29%. This scenario leads me to believe oil prices are likely to climb for the following reasons: 1. Supply Disruption First, with Saudi Arabia deciding to cut production, they are limiting the amount of oil available in the market. When there is a lower supply, there is a ride in demand. And this puts upward pressure on oil prices. 2. OPEC Influence on other members We know Saudi Arabia is a leading member of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries). And when they make a decision, this often sways other global oil markets to follow along. This can result in other OPEC+ members to decide to cut their production. And this lower supply, and increased demand will help increase the price of oil. Reason #2: Goldman Sachs makes its prediction Goldman Sachs has also spoken. It has lifted its forecast for Brent to $95 a barrel, by the end of the year. And raised its price prediction to $100 for 2024, based on the oil output change.
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by Timonrosso
Week SummaryThis is just a quick summary with some of the most interesting coincidences that have happened with my drawings. I look for candlestick patterns or shadows near the shapes, but sometimes I also stretch my imagination to look for other meaningful or strange occurrences. The price hit some of my icons so many times this week, that I decided to make this video. I hope that you will find it interesting or at least not think that I have wasted your time if you will watch it until the end. Speaking of time, what is time? And what is the Universe anyway?
RUS:BR1!
by nen
OPEC’s supply cuts pre-empt economic weaknessThe Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) producers surprised the market with a decision on Sunday 2 April 2023 to lower production limits by more than 1mn barrels per day (bpd) from May through the end of 2023. This decision was announced ahead of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting scheduled on 3 April and was contrary to market expectations that the committee would keep policy unchanged. Over the prior week, OPEC+ ministers were giving public assurances that they would stick to their production targets for the entire year. This cut tells us that OPEC+ is pre-empting weaker demand into the year and was looking to shore up the market. OPEC+ announcement may have caught speculators by surprise It is evident Sunday’s decision caught the market by surprise evident from the commitment of trader’s report which showed net speculative positioning in Brent crude oil futures at -44k contracts were 146% below the 5-year average. Sentiment on the crude oil market had been weak prior to the decision. Demand outlook remains soft amidst weaker economic backdrop OPEC has been markedly dovish on oil demand for some time relative to other forecasters such as the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This cut helps solve the disparity that existed between OPEC and the EIA. OPEC expects oil demand to grow by around 2mn bpd in 2023. A significant portion of this growth (nearly 710,000bpd) is reliant on Chinese oil demand . Given that such a large amount of demand hinges on a single economy poses a risk to the demand outlook as the pace of China’s recovery post re-opening has not been as robust as previously anticipated. At the same time, tightening credit conditions owing to the recent banking crisis is also likely to weigh on growth forecasts in the rest of the developed world. Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) indicators suggest manufacturing activity has contracted since September 2022. Supply outlook will be driven by new OPEC+ cuts Since Russia has been producing less than its notional limit, the reduction on actual production will be less than 1mn bpd. But with Saudi Arabia committing to voluntary reduction of 500,000bpd we would expect the overall decline in OPEC supply to be around 900,000bpd by the beginning of May 2023. Assuming OPEC production holding at the recent 28.9mn bpd for April, our balances would point to an equilibrium in Q2 and a return to a deficit in Q3 and Q4. This deficit is largely a function of OPEC+ cuts as opposed to stronger demand globally. The front end of the Brent crude oil futures curve remains in backwardation with a roll yield of +0.4% OPEC+ producers can also cut without the fear that they will lose significant market share to non-OPEC members. Previously, OPEC+ would be reluctant to let prices rise too high, as it would incentivise a supply response from US producers. However, US producers today appear more focussed on capital discipline and maximizing shareholder returns. The US also has limited capacity to plug the shortfall created by OPEC+ cuts owing to last year’s unprecedented release from strategic US oil reserves (now at a 40-year low). Conclusion In the short term, OPEC production cuts are almost always supportive evident from the recent price reaction Brent crude oil prices have risen (+6.54% ). However, over the medium term, the price response to cuts have been more mixed as they do tend to signal underlying weakness in the supply/demand balance. Either OPEC countries are expecting demand to be significantly weaker or doubt oil production in Russia will decline as sharply as forecasted. So, with speculative positioning at currently low levels alongside further inventory draws expected later in the year, the risks are titled towards the upside for crude oil prices. However, given the uncertainty in the macro environment, we expect the upside in prices to be capped at about US$90 per barrel.
NYMEX:BB1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Brent showing a further plummet to $67.89 Rising Flag has formed after the downtrend with Brent. The price has broken below the rising flag which confirms bearishness. 200 > 21 > 7 - Bearish RSI <50 Target $67.89 FUNDAMENTALS: We've seen the US Dollar start to strengthen a bit which is can continue to do so for the next few weeks. A strengthening US dollar can cause Brent crude price to drop because oil is priced in dollars. When the value of the dollar increases relative to other currencies, it makes oil more expensive for buyers using those currencies, which can result in decreased demand and lower prices. Additionally, a strong dollar can also make it more attractive for investors to sell commodities, including oil, in exchange for the higher-valued currency, putting downward pressure on prices.
ICEEUR:BRN1!Short
by Timonrosso
BR1! - Possible to reach TP96 Bull Up condition : 1) BRENT candlestick has BO Level-2 of Raising Stage (E), next target going to be 96.55 (Level-3) 2) Tricol+ indicator - Banker's sentiment (red) above 75%, still in bullish trend Support & Resistance: S : 89.37 (-1.81%) R : 96.55 (+6.08%) Remark: - length of AB=CD=DE=EF DISCLAIMER: Analysis above SOLELY for case study purpose, not a PROFESSIONAL ADVISE. This analysis does not provide any trading advise and buy or sell. Trade at your own risk. Trade only after you have acknowledged and accepted the risks involved.
RUS:BR1!Long
by TheWinningDay
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