#BITCOIN pathways for the halveningroute 1
or route 2
or a new pathway (Most likely)
next April we will be at $50k
BMC1! trade ideas
CME Gap Update: $77K-$80K ZoneThere is a recent CME gap sitting between the $77K and $80K range. CME gaps are known for being open levels in price that tend to get filled sooner or later. With this gap still unfilled, it’s crucial to keep an eye on this area as price action could revisit it in the near term, potentially acting as a pullback target or confirmation of further upward momentum. As always, traders should be prepared for price to retrace and fill the gap, especially if the current bullish trend continues. NFA.
Bitcoin Strengthens Amid Market Turmoil and Political UnrestBitcoin (BTC) is demonstrating remarkable resilience and strength, even as the broader market grapples with the shock of the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. Currently, BTC is in a higher-degree uptrend, having broken to new all-time highs (ATH) back in March. Following this surge, the market experienced a three-wave retracement, a common corrective pattern in technical analysis.
Our latest analysis reveals that BTC has rebounded from a potential Flip Zone, where a supply area has been established. This zone is characterized by a price level that previously acted as resistance and has now flipped to support. The strength of this flip zone is further reinforced by the bullish stance of large speculators, who continue to hold strong long positions on BTC.
Given the current market dynamics, we anticipate a retest of the supply area. This retest is expected to serve as a springboard for a fresh bullish impulse, propelling BTC higher. The alignment of technical indicators and market sentiment supports the case for continued upward momentum.
The recent political unrest surrounding Donald Trump has injected volatility into the markets. However, Bitcoin's decentralized nature and status as a digital asset often perceived as a hedge against political and economic instability have bolstered its appeal. This sentiment is reflected in the ongoing bullish positions held by large market players.
In summary, Bitcoin is on a robust recovery path, buoyed by strong technical support and positive market sentiment. The rebound from the Flip Zone and the anticipation of a retest of the supply area suggest a new bullish impulse is on the horizon. As large speculators maintain their bullish outlook, we remain optimistic about BTC's continued upward trajectory. Investors should watch for the retest of the supply area as a key indicator for potential entry points in anticipation of further gains.
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Bitcoin: Is a New Bullish Run on the Horizon? Despite Bitcoin's impressive 50% rise this year, the past six months have been challenging for investors. After the much-anticipated halving event in April, many expected a substantial surge in Bitcoin's price. However, since then, the cryptocurrency’s value has remained relatively stagnant, currently hovering around $68,600. This situation leaves investors at a crossroads: should they continue to invest in Bitcoin with hopes of significant gains, or is it time to explore other high-risk, high-reward alternatives?
The Investment Dilemma: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Outlook
If you are contemplating an investment in Bitcoin, managing expectations for the remainder of the year is crucial. Current predictions suggest that Bitcoin has about a 57% chance of reaching a new all-time high in 2024, making it essentially a coin toss as to whether it will surpass its previous peak of $73,750. The probability of Bitcoin hitting the much-anticipated $100,000 milestone this year stands at a modest 14%, further highlighting the uncertainty in the short term.
However, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains optimistic. For instance, investment firm Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Visionaries like Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Invest, foresee Bitcoin soaring to $1 million by 2030. Even more ambitious, Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy, believes that Bitcoin could reach a staggering $13 million by 2045.
For investors seeking short-term gains, Bitcoin may not be the best option at present. Tech stocks, such as Nvidia, which has seen a 159% increase this year, could offer more immediate returns. However, for those considering a longer investment horizon—five years or more—Bitcoin still presents a solid opportunity for growth.
Bitcoin’s Role in the Future Financial System
One of the most compelling reasons for Bitcoin’s long-term potential lies in its ability to transform the global financial landscape. Bitcoin is more than just a digital currency—it is underpinned by blockchain technology, which promises faster, cheaper, and more efficient financial transactions. The potential to disrupt traditional financial systems and become a cornerstone of the global economy is what makes Bitcoin an attractive investment.
Cathie Wood likens Bitcoin's potential to that of the "information superhighway" that revolutionized the internet. She envisions a "financial superhighway" where blockchain replaces the internet and economic value replaces digital information. Wood predicts that Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million within a few years, a reflection of its transformative power.
However, it's important to remain cautious about such lofty predictions. While Bitcoin’s revolutionary potential has been touted for over a decade, much of its promise as a viable payment method remains unfulfilled. For example, when was the last time you used Bitcoin for an everyday online purchase? Adoption, though growing, is still not at a level that justifies these sky-high predictions.
A New Wave of Political Support for Bitcoin
One significant shift in 2024 is the rise of political support for Bitcoin in the United States. There's growing awareness that the US is lagging behind other countries in terms of crypto adoption. High-profile politicians, including former President Donald Trump, have started advocating for America to become the “crypto capital of the world” and a “Bitcoin superpower.” The idea of a “Bitcoin arms race” with other nations is gaining traction.
In July, Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyoming) proposed the idea of establishing a national strategic reserve for Bitcoin. She suggested that the US should commit to acquiring 5% of all Bitcoin in circulation, similar to how the country maintains a strategic oil reserve. While this may seem bold or even risky, it reflects the growing belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
These political developments add momentum to the optimistic price predictions, but it's important to remember that Bitcoin won’t skyrocket to $1 million overnight, even with the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs or strategic reserves.
Bitcoin’s Price Journey and Future Prospects
Since 2013, Bitcoin has risen from $100 to its current $68,600. If you believe in its continued upward trajectory over the next decade and are prepared to endure the inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies, it might be worth considering an investment while the price remains below $100,000.
However, the question remains: is Bitcoin ready for another major rally?
Technical and Market Insights
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is currently sitting on a significant dynamic resistance trendline, which it has failed to break through five times since March 2024. The more a support or resistance level is tested, the weaker it becomes. This suggests that Bitcoin may be gearing up for a potential breakout.
Additionally, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals an interesting contrast. Commercial traders, often referred to as "smart money," are increasing their long positions, while large speculators have turned bearish. This divergence could indicate that the institutional market believes a bullish run is imminent, while retail traders remain cautious.
Adding to this, the seasonality pattern from last year showed a strong bullish run starting around this time. Could history repeat itself? The confluence of a weakening resistance, smart money bullishness, and favorable seasonality patterns could point to a new upward movement for Bitcoin.
Conclusion: Should You Buy Bitcoin Now?
Bitcoin's current situation presents a mix of opportunity and risk. While the short-term outlook remains uncertain, the long-term potential for Bitcoin as a transformative force in the global financial system is undeniable. With institutional investors showing increased interest and political support growing, Bitcoin could be on the verge of a significant breakthrough.
For those with a long-term investment horizon and the ability to weather volatility, Bitcoin remains a strong contender in the world of high-risk, high-reward assets. However, if you’re looking for short-term gains, you may want to explore other options like tech stocks, which have been delivering exceptional returns this year.
What do you think? Will Bitcoin finally break through its resistance and embark on a new bullish run? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
Why Bitcoin will be in distribution today?Trade Idea: The Dollar Index has just came out of a distribution phase, re-tested it and is likely to be in a re-distribution phase right now. A reverse confirmation of dollars' unambigious symmetrical triange pattern can be confirmed by BTC's conspicious falling wedge pattern.
BTC1 Analysis idea possible price targetWe could see Bitcoin pull back to the 0.5 fibo and see it at around 72000. That is 50% of the move and is quite common.
Always do your research
Bitcoin Market Outlook (W45/2024) // AlgoFyreBitcoin's weekly outlook indicates a potential bearish shift, marked by a failed auction and a possible head and shoulders pattern. A retest of the sell-side liquidity (SSL) zone may confirm further downside. Lower highs reinforce selling pressure, suggesting weakened bullish momentum.
🟢 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Days to Weeks) - Bullish Scenario
🔸 Key Support Zone : The price action shows a strong support level in the region around 74,415, marked as ATH 2024. This area is likely to act as a significant support if the price pulls back, providing a potential "retest and go" scenario.
🔸 Potential Liquidity Grab : The SSL zone (Stop-Loss Zone) marked on the chart indicates a possible liquidity sweep. If the price dips into this zone and then rebounds, it could trigger buying pressure, leading to a bullish reversal.
🔸 Bullish Wave Formation : The current structure shows the possibility of an Elliott Wave pattern, where a corrective ABC structure might complete near the SSL zone. Following this, a new bullish wave is likely to emerge, suggesting upward momentum.
🔸 Higher Highs Expected : The outlined potential pathways for the price indicate a series of higher highs if the bullish scenario unfolds, aligning with continued bullish momentum towards and beyond the 76,000 level.
🔸 Bullish Summary (TLDR):
Key support around 74,415 could serve as a launchpad.
SSL liquidity grab might trigger a bullish reversal.
Potential Elliott Wave structure suggests upward momentum.
Higher highs anticipated in the bullish scenario.
🔴 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bearish Scenario
🔸 Possible Failed Auction : The current price structure shows signs of a potential failed auction near the top, suggesting that bullish momentum might be losing steam. This pattern often precedes a reversal as sellers start to dominate.
🔸 Head and Shoulders Pattern : The chart displays a possible head and shoulders pattern, a classic bearish reversal signal. This could indicate a significant shift in market sentiment, with the potential for downward movement if this pattern completes.
🔸 Sell Side Liquidity (SSL) Zone Retest and Breakdown Risk : The SSL (Sell Side Liquidity) zone is a key area of liquidity that could be revisited. If price breaks down after testing this zone, it could confirm a bearish scenario, with further downside expected as sellers take control.
🔸 Lower Highs Formation : The recent highs are progressively lower, a typical bearish sign indicating that buying interest is weakening. This pattern suggests that the market may struggle to push higher, increasing the likelihood of a decline.
🔸 Bearish Summary (TLDR):
Possible failed auction suggests weakening bullish momentum.
Head and shoulders pattern points to a potential reversal.
SSL zone retest may lead to further downside.
Lower highs indicate waning buying interest.
🔶 Key Takeaway
Bitcoin's price action suggests a potential bearish reversal as sell-side liquidity (SSL) and a possible failed auction indicate weakening bullish momentum. A head and shoulders pattern and lower highs further support the likelihood of downward movement in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin Elliot Wave Count
Pump for Bitcoin Spot ETF and Havling in Fall 2023.
Top around March/April 2024.
Failed Halving Pump.
Bad economic climate in 2024.
Liquidity Event.
Recession in Fall 2024.
Crash to sub 10K.
Bottom sometime in Fall 2025.
BITCOIN LONGTERM UPDATESWe see the clear of the previous highs! Now expecting it to clear again before it will rip lower for a new demand.
This is only for my view, for longterm still a bullish. In charts as of now looks bearish. If youre a holder then no need to take actions. buy more if the streets is on scary.
Im expecting a downfall or downward momentum after the previous high clear.
40-35k? just and analysis and prediction. this is not a
financial advice either.
Not doing anything. once the price breaks above. wait for a good momentum downturn for a massive sell.
Trade it or own it.
Follow for more.
BTC CME Futures chart (1H) update - Nov 05 2024BTC followed analysis nicely and had a rather sharp drop towards lower levels in order to fill the gap in the 67,400 - 68,000 zone.
Today's pump in BTC and the market is the reaction to gap area which acts as a support zone.
Impact of U.S. Elections on BTC Futures and Key Market ScenariosMacro:
US Elections : On Tuesday 5th November, 2024, Americans go to the polls to decide on the next President of the United States for a 4-year term. The winner will take office in January 2025. This will be an important outcome for the U.S. economy, broader markets, the crypto futures market, and world economy, as the U.S. Dollar holds the reserve currency status.
Donald Trump currently leads by a thin margin in most swing states whereas his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris has been narrowing the gap in recent weeks.
Source: Newsquawk
Depending on the results, there are few scenarios that may play out and impact financial markets.
Republican Sweep:
Markets will price tighter monetary policy and loose fiscal policy boosting USD. Gold will pare losses along with commodities and goods subject to tariffs.
Trump has also come out with crypto-friendly messages, boosting BTC futures and other virtual currencies/assets.
Treasuries will be seen falling with a steeper yield curve as noted by some banks.
Democratic Sweep:
Markets will price more room for monetary policy and FED to cut rates as inflationary forces ease and fiscal policy is tightened under Democrats. This further boosts Gold prices. In my opinion, commodities and equities will show somewhat muted reactions while growth prospects also stay muted. However, equities will be seen higher. Views among different banks vary on growth and the U.S. stock market with a democratic sweep.
Bitcoin futures and other virtual currencies may further consolidate or pare some losses as further clarity is required from U.S. lawmakers.
Bonds will rise with yields falling as FED will have more room to cut rates with tighter fiscal policy.
For the above 2 scenarios, recessionary risks are reduced in my opinion as a Red sweep provides fiscal boost while a Blue sweep provides room to cut rates with tighter fiscal policy. In addition, as witnessed during Covid-19 shock, there was a quick economic recovery in countries that had room to provide handouts to the public to spur spending. This new mechanism of fiscal and monetary policy combination points towards reduced recessionary risks and even when recession hits, a quick recovery prospect. But how many times can this be done until it loses its effects?
A divided congress in either case will see mostly muted reaction in my opinion. Newswires and investment banks have research regarding these scenarios as they require considering many different policies, geopolitical issues, impact on the U.S. economy. I believe recessionary risks will increase for the next four years with a divided house/senate and no clear majority.
FED Interest Decision : Federal Reserves meets for another FOMC meeting to decide on interest rates path. The CME Fedwatch tool shows market participants pricing 25 bps of rate cut. However, the inflation outlook is very much dependent on the fiscal policy stance taken by the next U.S. government which will feed into FED’s inflation models and forecasts. For the first half of 2025, FED meetings on interest rate decisions and inflationary economic releases will be key to watch.
Having briefly discussed this, BTC futures can take few possible paths. CME BTC futures are equivalent to 5 BTC when checking out contract specs. Risk exposure can be reduced by trading CME MBT Micro Bitcoin futures, 1/10th the size of one bitcoin, and CME BFF, Bitcoin Friday futures , sized at 1/50 of a bitcoin, Bitcoin Friday futures is a short-dated contract that provides an accessible, capital-efficient way to manage your bitcoin trading strategies.
Big Picture for BTC Futures:
*past performance is not indicative of future results
Key Levels to Watch:
Yearly Hi: 78,960
Yearly VAH: 74,485
Bull support zone: 68,000 to 65,500
Yearly Mid: 61,495
Scenario 1 :
Price has broken out of the bull flag pattern, held above yearly VPOC. Here we may see continuation higher with new All time highs. Red Sweep scenario.
FED stays conservative due to change in their inflation models keeping tighter monetary policy which points to further consolidation before another move higher by end of first quarter of 2025.
Scenario 2 : Further choppy price action building acceptance above 60,000 for push in either direction.
In this scenario further clarity on the new U.S. government stance on crypto is needed before committing further.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
BTC UPDATE (2H)Bitcoin had a CME gap that has just been filled.
From the green range, it can move up and then drop.
CME gaps are usually filled, especially if the gap is close.
When these gaps are filled, the price is balanced.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
correctionIt seems that the employment report was not good, if the support is maintained, there is a possibility of correction
BTC will fill the gap?There' s an unfilled gap waiting to fill at 67.5K in CME #bitcoin #btc futures chart.
BTC 42K SOONI've already said many times in my reviews that I'm waiting for 41 - 43k for bitcoin. And the fact that the price went up doesn't change anything
BTC CME Futures update (1H) - Nov 01 2024There's a gap in 67,400 - 68,070 zone which is probably going to be filled specially given the fact that yesterday's drop was a bit too strong.
Gap filling is more possible as long as price is below 72,200 zone and the dotted trendline on the chart.
UPDATE Bitcoin still aimed at $100,000 first target but in 2024?Bitcoin from the last update has completed the consolidation range while moving in a Falling Wedge.
It has broken above the resistance now and is showing upside to come.
The question arises whether we will see $100,000 this year.
If greed and mania kicks in then yes it could rally.
BUt where there is greed there is fear. So I don't actually think we will see $100,000 until maybe MArch 2025.
It's the same concept and analysis as last time - just showing the breakout above now.
Weekly $BTC looking BULLISH, more light to GOLD pre 2024Let's add a bit more to the previous CRYPTOCAP:BTC post we made.
#BTC closes Friday anywhere around here, it's MEGA BULLISH!
Officially breaking the downtrend on weekly
Volume not great but enough to keep moving, 1 more day left!
RSI is looking good. Money Flow also looks good, never dissipated.
Our #Bitcoin November call coming into fruition,
Again, look @ #GOLD calls pre 2024!
$BTC closing in on the MAJOR RESISTANCE LEVEL, breakout soonCRYPTOCAP:BTC , what are you doing?
Does our #BTC chart remind of anything we have posted before?
Do a search for our #Gold charts pre 2024 on X!
#Bitcoin is preparing to breakout!
BTC price prediction from 2024 to 2026This BTC price forecast is just an idea based on the past. With similar intervals, similar highs and lows as before. It was made in a logarithmic view, on a weekly time plane, based on the CME features diagram.
Bitcoin Futures IdeaIf we look objective, without in mind bitcoin is now testing the all time high region, we need to keep in mind there is still a gap below us. Bitcoin history tells up these close sooner rather than later. Also there is a big wick at the low 49's. This is speculation it could be that we go down there to grab this liquidity before going higher.
But for this to happen we need a black swan event. Keep in mind that the war in the middle east is ongoing and that the yields are rising as we speak. I still believe the FED cut rates too soon and too much. I am a bull in the long run for Bitcoin, but the economic situation isn't healthy at all so in the short term, with all the above kept in mind, I am sceptic about price development to the upside. So I'm slightly bearish.
Also I see a big cup and handle pattern forming. If you look on the weekly you can see it very clear. We're at the top of the cup and we're at the start to form the handle of this pattern, so this also would make sense if we go lower from here. Let's see!
BTCUSD to 98k maybe beyondI have been bullish BTC for a very long time.
To be honest the money has been dead for quite a while and I could have made a lot more profits trading and investing elsewhere.
The idea was always to hold until we reached $100k and with a decent close in October we may get a chance to see that big round number in 2024.
Plan B says we should hold for ~18-months after the halving and Michael Saylor would say we should double up because the train ain't stopping anytime soon. Raul Paoul says we're in a Banana Zone but as I can't pay taxes in BTC as of today or any time soon, I am going to take my cash and go in the coming months if we hit my target.
