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BMC1! trade ideas

Bitcoin Pullback Imminent? The rally in Bitcoin futures has been impressive. But, without question, the rally is showing signs of fatigue. So the question is - are we gearing up for a pullback? Technical Outlook : Concurrent bearish divergence and a declining volume profile is a telltale sign of an impending correction. Why? Put simply, because all of the bulls are already in the market. Meaning that no new buyers bidding up the price. As a result, long liquidation pushes price lower. An initial operative target for a correction would be filling the gap from Dec. 1st and Dec. 4th between 40,390 and 42,500. While this correction would be significant, it may be necessary to sustain the longer-term bull trend. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:BTC1!Short
by Blue_Line_Futures
$BTC holding while weakening, what? LOLGOOD MORNING Don't see an increase in CRYPTOCAP:BTC shorts. With #ETF news perhaps traders do not want to be short. Don't see a #BTC a breakdown, JUST weakening of the RSI during this current move. BUT #Bitcoin keeps bouncing off the trendline, yellow arrow. We also see bouncing off the 20 Exponential Moving Avg, cyan, & the red = TREND strength. As posted few days ago, the top part of the range keeps getting poked. The more poking the weaker resistance gets!
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
BTC SHORT/CRAB, LET GO.BTC looks to be in a short term distribution phase, with a likely top already in ~47k on CME. Expect moderate volatility this quarter, where I expect constant violent 10% swings in either direction between 46k and 41k until the ETF approval. Afterward, expect a drop to ~38.5k by the end of January. Note, January EOM has the highest likelihood of dropping the furthest beyond the "Q1 High probability range noted on the chart" towards 34.5k. Breaking out the Q1 Range will likely result in continued momentum to follow until the next line of support/resistance, noted at 50k or 34.5k. The last line of defense will be ~31.6k in the event of a full liquidation cascade as it supports the previous sideways structure we had between 32k and 25k since March last year and acts as the 0.5 fib from the ATH to this cycle low. If we drop further under 30k, than you must accept the increased probability of 46k being a bull trap and being the largest rug pull to occur and we head toward revisiting 20k, 15, and even 10k. RWI (Random Walk Index) and LS (Liquidation Screener) are the indicators used. RWI is printing bearish divergences along with starting to crossover toward bearish trend. LS probably has shown the top as it has hit the red bearish territory and recently dropped out of it and heading over the median line currently at 33.7k (but is rising and i could see it bottom out toward the lower side of Q1 probability range by EOM JAN or even EOQ) Overall, I believe the ETF may be a sell-the-news event that will in the grand scheme of things crab between 46k and 41k, until the end of Q1, but with a short visit to 38.5k. Breaking out the expected range of 46k-38.5k, begets continued momo in the same direction. Take note this is likely due to lowered overall volatility of BTC maturing as a whole. But alts may push forward after the expected flush. Let go. Relax. Q1 Ranges: High probability 46k-38k Moderate probability 52k-30k Max probability 54k-18k Trades: Short @ 44k TP 41k, 39k, (may carry it down to 30k depending on PA under 39k) SL 47k Short @ 50k ( if expected range breaks out) TP 40k, 35k, 32k SL 54k Long @ 39k TP 44k, 50k SL 37.5k Long @ 35k & 32k TP 40k, 50k SL 29k
CME:BTC1!Short
by linebands
Shocked @ $BTC and #crypto hit today?Good Morning!!!!!!! In reference to the rout #crypto is taking, everyone's playing Monday morning quarterback. The post quoted, pls see more info on our profile page, wasn't the 1st post with warning!!! We had mentioned the breakout had a lot of selling with little buying to support holding the move. CRYPTOCAP:BTC gave up a large chunk of the gains. We also spoke on #BTC $ flow lessening & the weakening RSI. The CRYPTOCAP:BTC RSI looks to cross sub 50, it must hold 40ish area. #BTC $ Flow hasn't looked good at all, buy on the rumor and sell news. Could be what's happening. #Bitcoin forming a BEARISH ENGULFING. Recall NASDAQ:NDX did this and was walloped for a bit before recuperating. KEEP and EYE ON VOLUME TODAY! Weekly, Bitcoin has formed an outside week, more on this later. AMEX:BITO
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Bitcoin's Bullish Surge: Potential Targets and Path AheadBitcoin has surged beyond a symmetrical triangle, hinting at a potential target around 48500. This aligns well with the March 2022 high of 48475, marking an initial upward goal. Moreover, there's room for further growth if we consider the prior rally as a flagpole and the recent consolidation as a midpoint, indicating potential for Bitcoin to advance even more. Should Bitcoin surpass the 48500 mark, it could pave the way for a push towards 57555, which stands at the 78.6% retracement level of the entire downward movement from the November 2021 peak to the November 2022 low. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
CME:BTC1!Long
by The_STA
Bitcoin short from 47k in cme futures.The retest that i was waiting during the year of 2023 has just been met . Even though i expected that retest to occur during the may or june of 2023 at 40k level, bitcoins price has just hit 47k in cme whilst on other exchanges it remains at 46k level . I do believe this is bitcoins final push to the upside ,and this is a major sign for more downside to come . Now all i think about is the gap at 20k level. Now short mode is ON , every push to the upside is a short position for me. The big short is coming , closer than ever , also waiting for 10th of january where i do believe that is priced in , and once etf approves it, btc will plummet just like it did in 2017 with cme futures.
CME:BTC1!Short
by CrocoCrypto
BTC held the 44kish call for 2023, 48-50k next before pauseGood Evening/Morning! The call for CRYPTOCAP:BTC topping around the 44k range for 2023 was GOOD! 1st trading day and #bitcoin rips higher! How's that for coincidence, huh? The call for #BTC being in a temp pause & in a CONTINUATION pattern was GOOD! IMO, the next level that #Bitcoin is most likely to test is the 48k with a good possibility of hitting low 50k area. Let's continue....... The RSI is still trending lower and $ Flow is not that great either. Things can change though... Why 48-50k? Arrows show the areas of resistance. Even after breaking above this staunch resistance area, 50kish, Bitcoin didn't trade very long above it. More on what we think later.... Still time... For more info visit our profile page...
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Insights into Bitcoin Futures as 2024 brings new regulations inIntroduction to Bitcoin Futures Bitcoin Futures represent a significant intersection of traditional financial markets and the innovative world of cryptocurrencies. They allow traders to speculate on the future price of Bitcoin, providing a way to hedge against price volatility or to profit from price movements. As we step into 2024, the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs is poised to further transform the landscape for Bitcoin Futures. The Impact of Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Spot Bitcoin ETFs are directly tied to the current price of Bitcoin (spot price). Their likely potential approval by U.S. regulators could have substantial implications for the Bitcoin market. Firstly, it's expected to increase market liquidity by providing an accessible avenue for traditional investors to enter the cryptocurrency space. Secondly, it could lead to greater price stability and potentially higher prices due to increased demand. However, it's also important to consider the potential risks, such as amplified market reactions to regulatory news and changes in the underlying asset. Parallel Analysis of Other ETFs To understand the potential impact of a Bitcoin ETF, it's instructive to look at the introduction of other commodity and currency-based ETFs: GLD (Gold ETF): Following the introduction of GLD, which is linked to COMEX Gold Futures (GC), the gold market saw increased liquidity and interest from new investor segments, contributing to significant price rallies. GLD Performance Chart SLV (Silver ETF): Similar to GLD, the introduction of SLV, linked to COMEX Silver Futures (SI), led to increased investor participation and price movements in the silver market. SLV Performance Chart FXE (Euro ETF): Linked to CME Euro Futures, FXE provided investors an easy way to gain exposure to euro currency movements, affecting trading volumes and price volatility. FXE Performance Chart USO (WTI Crude Oil ETF): Tied to NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Futures, USO's introduction affected the oil market by providing more access and potentially contributing to price movements during significant market events. USO Performance Chart Historical Implications for Bitcoin The history of these ETFs suggests a pattern: the introduction of an ETF could lead to increased market participation and, often, significant price movements. For Bitcoin, the approval of a spot ETF could similarly increase market participation and price volatility, at least in the short term. Over the long term, it could help stabilize and mature the market as more institutional investors get involved. Forward-Looking Insights Given the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, traders and investors in Bitcoin Futures might expect several scenarios. An immediate increase in volatility could be likely as the market adjusts to the influx of new participants. Over time, we might see a more liquid and stable Bitcoin market. Planning for a Risk-Defined BTC Opportunity: Risk Management : Experienced traders prioritize risk management. Using stop-loss orders or hedging techniques is imperative to avoid undefined risk exposure. Precision in Entries and Exits : Aligning entries and exits with relevant market price levels can help manage risk. When a price point generates a bounce, the trader stays in the trade; if a price level is violated, the disciplined action is to exit the trade promptly for a predetermined loss. Relevant Price Levels for BTC : Currently, BTC shows relevant resistance levels starting at 51,585 and support between 39,640-34,295. Proposed Trade Plan: ENTRY: 39,640 STOP-LOSS: 34,295 TAKE PROFIT TARGET: 51,585 This trade plan offers a 2.23 Reward-To-Risk ratio, providing a structured approach to capitalizing on potential market movements. In order to manage risk and use the right contract size, traders need to take into consideration the Point Value for BTC Futures being $25 per point. Traders should prepare for both the opportunities and risks this change could bring, considering strategies that allow flexibility and risk management. Conclusion The potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 is set to make waves in the Bitcoin Futures market. Drawing parallels from the history of other ETFs, we anticipate increased market participation and potential price movements. As we navigate this evolving landscape, staying informed and adaptable will be key to capitalizing on the opportunities and navigating the challenges ahead. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes, forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:BTC1!
by traddictiv
$BTC_F: Bitcoin CME futures chart is strongBitcoin futures chart looks TREMENDOUSLY bullish... I was looking at protective puts in case of a negative SEC decision causing a black swan decline but this chart makes me think it's not necessary to buy insurance here. (although payoff was like 22 to 1 for OTM puts expiring by Jan 12th) If this signal here works, the 'Explosion Pattern' in the latest accumulation pattern suggests a 2 to 3x target range move within 13 trading sessions. Crossing fingers, let's see if this analysis is correct, weight of evidence across the board is with the bulls here. Cheers! Ivan Labrie.
CME:BTC1!Long
by IvanLabrie
BTC liquidation map Hello! I am still adhering to our previous idea, but with a slight emphasis on a new perspective. Instead of focusing on traditional analysis, let's pay attention to liquidity zones and potential opportunities for correction. Let's consider the liquidation map: we are focusing on 34k as a key level, where the largest liquidation of long positions is observed, estimated at over 6 billion! This confirms that the majority of market participants are still choosing long positions. And this is indeed a smart move, as our trend is long. We must act in accordance with the trend and not look for reversal points unnecessarily. But, as you know, I always strive to be prepared for any scenarios. Therefore, I have left a limit order in this potentially key area to be ready for unexpected market movements. 👉 Remember: flexibility and adaptability are the keys to success in investing. Stay tuned for updates!
CME:BTC1!
by CHOWTRADE
1