BMC1! trade ideas
Bitcoin last hoorahBitcoin last hoorah moment. Everyone is back to the hype and i view it as a time to be very cautious. My view: bitcoin is done. Its not hedge against inflation and it will not work with interest rates skyrocketing. Bitcoin is fiat derivative and many will get trapped. Unpopular view.
BTC1!That CME gang cray
Ran up to take intraday (but not intramonth) highs before close
Now filled previous day 330 close gap at Thursday open
Also happens to be same approximate area as that 35925 gap (filled last week) that I've been talking about
If bullish they'll likely hold this level for continuation
Has 39900 gap above as incentive for higher
Last move closed the GAP from May 9, 2022This unclosed GAP on CME Futures waited there for more than a year and half and now it is closed.
What doest it means about the future price moves? First of all, the traders that were trapped on that levels can now close the positions break-even, but should they do that after waiting so long? I think that most of them will, because of psychologic bias. But, there are people that are always buying and adding more BTC to their portfolio even in current levels, because the Bitcoin ETF proposals of BalckRock and several other funds are still on a table of SEC and can be approved any day.
Microstrategy, for example, increased they BTC holdings in last year and their average buy price is $29,744.
BTC CME Bearish divergence Good day folks it have a bearish divergence on the BTC CME futures chart this can either mean we will go sideways or we can see a drop in price. Trade smart I would take a short with the swing high and target a profits around 33800.
Bitcoin Elliot Wave CountPump for Bitcoin Spot ETF and Havling in Fall 2023.
Top around March/April 2024.
Failed Halving Pump.
Bad economic climate in 2024.
Liquidity Event.
Recession in Fall 2024.
Crash to sub 10K.
BTC1!Some ting doesn't want to be short into NY open
Has gap at yesterday's close 35300, confluent with range mid
5 Step Trading Plan Template"Playing Catch Up" - A clear, easy to follow 5 Step Trading Plan Template for Breakout Trading.
Step 1. Recognize the change in trend. Whether you use ranges, patterns, or stage analysis, all essentially help to confirm that the trend has changed from down or sideways to up (or vice versa, but just make sure its in the same direction you plan on trading!). In this case, we have a "U" shaped recovery which is comprised of an island-type reversal with a very clear sell off which was sharply supported on a high interest price level ($20,000) while then breaking out of the larger U reversal neckline at $25,000. Trend has changed from down/sideways to up (or Weinstein's Stage 2).
Step 2. Identify the breakout. This trendline confirmed itself twice as support in 2021 and was broken in 2022. It then acted as resistance twice in 2023 before breaking last week.*
Step 3. Establish a price target. Here we have targeted the previous local high before the breakdown of the trendline. Price was unable to advance past this level last time, so its likely become a resistance level and an area of supply in the market.
Step 4. Ask yourself: what if I'm wrong? It's the question to always be asking yourself, but not too often where it keeps you from taking appropriate amounts of risk. It's important to be prepared for all scenarios, even the ones you believe to be least likely. We place the stop just below the trendline breakout in case price breaks down. Even if its just chop, we can reestablish a new position under new circumstances. We will not be left holding in case price goes to 0.
Step 5. Confirm risk management. In this case, this trade happens to coincide with a 4:1 reward to risk ratio, which means if I am trading with the same amount of capital for every trade, I can lose 4 times and win 1 time to breakeven, or as I have written on the chart, I can lose 3 times and win 1 time to be profitable. As a trader I recognize I will not win every single trade, so to remain solvent I must account for this. You need to know your win/loss rate in order to have a clear idea of what R/R ratio is appropriate for you!
*Note: Assuming we hadn't gotten long earlier, the breakout at Step 2 is the ideal price to go long. This can be difficult if you aren't on your computer/phone all day. This tutorial is how to play catch up with a simple risk management plan. There are also ways to decrease risk even more, by layering buys from this entry down to the trendline breakout, increasing the size of purchases as price gets closer to the breakout price (this is still done in conjunction with our risk size of "1"). This lowers our average purchase price, and with it our risk, because our stop-loss price does not change.
I hope this helps, let me know in the comments section what you think.
Thanks for reading.
-harambepay
$BTC topping short term or something else happening?Keep an eye on the CRYPTOCAP:BTC volume today. Why? Well, this could be a short term top for it. But again, VOLUME. If it is heavy not good news.
4Hr #BTC looks okay still but there is a slight weakness.
#Bitcoin
BTC1!Backed up to mid of current range (35335) and testing now as support
Bulls want to see mid hold
Bears want acceptance beneath mid
Onus on bears to break down mid
I'm biased towards range highs; good spot to add/ initiate positions from this juncture
BTC - cautious about a correction.if you like the idea, please "Like" it. This is the best "Thanks!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Withdraw profits in fiat and please yourself and your friends.
Bitcoin Futures : Gap filledCME Bitcoin Futures : Gap filled
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Bitcoin Vs. Gold Part 1COMEX:GC1! Vs CME:BTC1!
--
That's the problem with teaching about stocks.
The problem is popularity doesn't last.
Even if you are good at trading.
The main thing you need to remember is you need
to understand your technical experience.
Right now Bitcoin is in a buying position.
And so we have this Bitcoin vs. Gold situation.
The Fed interest rate decision is on the 1st Of Nov. 2023
Watch this video to learn more.
Disclaimer:Do not buy or sell anything I recommend.
Do your own research before you trade.
Rocket boost this content for more information
🅱️ Bitcoin CME Futures Premium Confirms Bullish ContinuationBitcoin's CME Futures currently trades 500USD or 1.27% higher vs Bitcoin Spot (BTCUSD). This premium clearly reveals a bullish bias for Bitcoin.
When Bitcoin starts a new trend or, is set to move higher and does move higher or, simply becomes bullish, futures prices always trade at a premium vs spot. This is the situation we are in now.
This bullish bias is supported by a strong reading coming from the oscillators as well as a bulls dominated volume profile.
Only in early November 2022 is bear volume really high, the rest of this chart clearly shows bull volume being predominant during each major move.
Bitcoin is set to move higher, this is based on many signals coming from this and other charts.
Namaste.
Bitcoin Bull Run Precedes Ethereum RallyDays of triple digit volatility and rampant amateur speculation are gone. Unlike the overblown enthusiasm which defined the peak of 2021, investors now are more measured and discerning.
2023 has been defined by (a) discrete and information fuelled rallies followed by unprecedented low volatility, and (b) rise of traditional finance entrants in digital assets.
Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied sharply relative to Ethereum (“ETH”), pushing BTC-ETH ratio to its highest level since 2021. Several factors point to a potential reversal in the ratio. Investors can deploy CME Micro BTC and Micro ETH Futures to harness gains from eventual reversion.
BTC surged 20% during the past week driven by excitement over the anticipated approval of a BTC Spot ETF. Large liquidations triggered as BTC prices rose on its re-emergence as a haven asset as discussed in a previous paper .
BITCOIN IS A HAVEN (AGAIN)
In October, BTC’s correlation with gold rose while correlation with Nasdaq-100 has inverted suggesting that investors consider BTC as a haven rather than a risk-on asset.
The case for BTC as a haven derives from its limited supply. Every four years, the number of BTCs minted as a mining reward, halves and will eventually halt, leading to a fixed supply.
BTC has played its role as a haven previously. In March this year, during the US regional banking crisis, BTC surged 40%. BTC also rallied 20% at the start of Russia-Ukraine conflict but soon pared those gains. Given the repeated pullback in its prices, question around BTC’s ability to deliver as a safe haven remains.
Assigning BTC a haven status could be a tad bit too early. It is a new asset. It faces regulatory ambiguity. It remains under-invested relative to traditional safe havens like gold and treasuries.
Notwithstanding that BTC is new, it is the most popular and widely tested cryptocurrency. Flow of assets from riskier crypto to the safety of BTC during rising uncertainty partly contributes to haven flows into BTC.
SHORT SQUEEZE ACCENTUATED BITCOIN’S RALLY
Recent rally was punctuated by heavy deleveraging in BTC derivatives. During the long squeeze in August, 64,000 BTCs were liquidated. In the following period, only half of these long positions returned.
These positions were not spared either as large liquidations occurred on October 17th and 23rd leading to unwinding of more than 60,000 BTC.
Source: Glassnode
The size of liquidation was like those in Jan 2023 when prices definitively broke above the $20k range, suggesting that this washout may be adequate to cement a major psychological price level.
AWAITING A BTC SPOT ETF
The latest development in the BTC spot ETF saga comes as an appeals court upheld the ruling against SEC’s rejection of Grayscale’s spot ETF application based on concerns that market manipulation is not addressed sufficiently.
The court held that SEC’s decision was arbitrary, capricious, and unenforceable. This time around, the SEC stated it will not be appealing any further.
The SEC’s easing stance is also echoed in the modest feedback response to other spot ETF applications. Many now believe that all spot BTC ETFs will be approved together and probably before the deadline of January 10th.
Approval of spot BTC ETFs is expected to make the asset available to a wider audience in a familiar Tradfi product structure making BTC go “mainstream.”
Spot ETFs will spur greater demand for spot BTC from ETF manufacturers. When gold ETF was first listed, incremental fund flows translated into higher demand for physical gold.
ETF listing and BTC price run is not a given as regulatory concerns remain. Prices have struggled to sustain ETF excitement driven rallies not once but thrice in 2023 due to slow developments compounded by a harsh macro backdrop.
The risk that the current rally will pullback persists. Earlier this week, price action was significantly influenced by investors speculating on the approval of Blackrock spot ETF (IBTC). The rumours have been spurred by the listing, delisting, and relisting of the ticker on Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) website.
BITCOIN BULL RUN PRECEDE ALTCOIN RALLIES
In stark contrast to BTC’s rally, other major cryptocurrencies have lagged pushing BTC dominance to its highest since 2021.
ETH has rallied 15% over the past week. ETH underperformance relative to BTC has pushed the ratio between them to levels unseen since 2021.
Altcoin underperformance is unusual. During past BTC rallies, ETH price tops lagged BTC tops by a month. This is a consequence of capital rotation within crypto.
In past rallies, asset rotation can be seen in three distinct waves starting with (1) increase in BTC capital, (2) ETH rotation, followed by (3) increasing stablecoin flows.
MARKET METRICS AND ON-CHAIN SIGNALS
A raft of market metrics points to bullish sentiment in crypto markets due to resilient Long-Term Holders (LTH), limited profits at current levels, and strained supply which is expected to be exacerbated by demand from spot ETFs.
More importantly, market metrics indicate a higher bullish sentiment for ETH.
FUTURES AND OPTIONS POSITIONING
Leveraged funds have built up net short positioning over the last few weeks in BTC futures. Contrastingly asset managers have setup net long positioning. In options, BTC full size options have a bullish P/C ratio of 0.51 and Micro BTC options have a P/C ratio of 0.76.
In contrast, leveraged funds bullish on ETH have switched from net short to net long positioning last week. Full size ETH options have bullish P/C ratio of 0.38 and Micro ETH options have P/C ratio of 0.38.
Overall, leveraged funds and option markets are more bullish on ETH compared to BTC.
TRADE SETUP
BTC prices may pullback relative to ETH in the short term given price divergence. CME’s suite of crypto futures can be deployed to harness gains from this trend reversal.
The hypothetical spread posited in this paper consists of two legs: (1) long position in Micro ETH futures expiring on November 24th ( METX3 ) and, (2) short position in Micro BTC futures expiring on the same date ( MBTX3 ).
Each lot of Micro ETH futures provide exposure to 0.1 ETH while each lot of Micro BTC futures provides exposure to 0.1 BTC. To balance notional values, nineteen lots of METX3 are required for each lot of MBTX3 at current prices
● Entry: 19.090
● Target: 17.58
● Stop Loss: 20.000
● Profit at Target: USD 276
● Loss at Stop: USD 169
● Reward to Risk: 1.6x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
🅱️ BTC CME Futures GAPs Points To $35K, Who's Selling? | Go UP!Looking at the Bitcoin CME Futures contracts we have to major gaps on the way down that are yet be filled.
These gaps can be found in the following ranges:
1) $34,445 - $35,775
2) $27,365 - $28,860
Now, let me ask you one question...
Who's selling?
Who is going to sell?
Who is selling now?
I ask this question because there is people around waiting for a "new low", "another leg down"... But who is going to sell?
Who will part with their bitcoins after Bitcoin hit a low back in June 2022?
The capitulation phase is where the masses sell.
The "sucker rally" is not.
The sucker rally, terrible name, happened in July/August 2022, then again months of red.
If you count from June '22 until January '23 you have more than six months.
That's the bottom pricing... The sellers had their time to sell from November 2021 until early this month...
New money is coming in not to sell but to hold long-term and profit as bitcoins price appreciates over the years.
Our billionaire friends gave the Go. ✔
The charts gave us the Go. ✔
Our third eye/intuition gave us the Go. ✔
Conventional markets gave us the Go. ✔
The FED gave us the Go. ✔
Even China, opening its country, gave us the Go. ✔
Astrology gave us the Go. ✔
Nothing is saying down now...
Everything is saying Go... UP!
Namaste.
BTC attempts to close the gap on weekly chartOnce the gap is closed I expect the price to consolidate for a while and then move down towards the unclosed gap on ~$21000
which strategy makes 100.000 $ per year?the supertrend strategy on Bitcoin or TSLA
simply apply this indicator to your 30 min chart
now is a time for long bitcoin but in the bear market the strategy also performed very well on short trades...
$BTC made big move, now what? $ETH should have more steam.In reference to CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Majority vs Row Partners, were:
Bullish mid April
We were sellers
Bearish mid June
We went TRADE long
Bullish July
We were cautious and turned bearish August
Extreme bear early September
We were cautiously bullish, turned bullish in October, ADDED LONGS
Hodl #BTC for the moment as it still looks good, but we may shave some off soon. CRYPTOCAP:ETH also looks decent, not trimming that.
CME gap filledThe first CME gap that wasn't filled yet, now has been filled.
We probably see a pause now in Bitcoins recent climb, before we rise further to around 40K (.618 retrace)
After that I expect a rather big drop... but not below 20K anymore.
BTC1!Upthrust towards 35,925 gap, as foretold in earlier post this week, came sooner than anticipated.
This convincing move above previous 2023 highs has placed us in a new range, which is 28,535 to 42,140 (first quarter to mid of the entire move from peak to trough).
Mid for new range is 35,337.50.
CME gap immediately above remains unfilled until 35,925 prints.
Also, two additional gaps in new range that remain unfilled until 39,900 and 41,245 print respectively, which provide additional incentive for test of range highs in due time.
To be fair, there are also gaps to the downside that are also in range, which are at 31,485 and 29,685, which very well could incentivise test of range lows at 28,535.
Time will tell.
TL:DR anticipate giga bid around 28,535 to 29,685 (range lows), if it comes, for the inevitable move up to 42 (range highs).
Also, it's important to note, if we're done ranging, having had 18 months of rangebound accumulation from April 2022 through October 2023, and this is truly the start of an uptrend, a retest of 28 is unlikely. Simply because we'll be in an up-trending and not ranging environment.
This is what makes buying here and now, from this juncture, justified; in the event of a continuation of rangebound (28-42) then we're likely en route to 42, with the possibility of a retest of 28 before 42, and in the event that this is start of an uptrend we're in direct route to 42.
-jhonny
