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BMC1! trade ideas

$BTC bottoms not easy to spot as other investments, but signsSORRY, copy paste covered the chart I copied all this and hard to show all the charts used Bitcoin bottoms are harder to spot and take time but there ae signs Best if you use your own chart and follow 1/few #BTC bottoms $BTC doesn't tend 2b like other investments Volume tends to come AFTER it's bottomed HOWEVER, there's indication, volume on buy side does creep up & happens for few weeks Arrow shows BOTTOM Rectangle shows VOLUME after - 2 $BTC Bottoms A #BTC bottomed Dec 18, 3120 NO LOWER LOW Jan, Feb avg $3600 Feb BUY volume began to creep up March bit⬆️, volume comes in, avg $3900 APRIL picked up A TON, avg $4600 MAY volume🎆, avg $6500 Peaked JUNE, volume💀 @ 13k RESISTANCE - 3 $BTC Bottoms B #BTC bottomed March 4210, REVERSAL April BULLISH engulfing but lacks volume, avg 7500 Buy volume creeps in & continues in May Does trade HIGHER & volume picks up, avg 9300 TRADES ABOVE Moving avg's Breaks 13k resistance #Bitcoin higher Nov, DEC & HUGE volume - 4 $BTC Bottom B continued Higher low vs A NO Moving Avg BEAR CROSSOVER #BTC sell volume wasn't huge = institutions STILL IN These were signs LARGER #Bitcoin move coming Using weekly HELPS 2c see the set up Monthly is CONFIRM Daily all over the place BUT DOES HELP VOLUME🗝️ - 5 $BTC Bottoms Not fan of DCA HOWEVER CALCULATED DCA can be GREAT Always signs daily Weekly helps to set up Monthly CONFIRMS Not paying attention = missing out BIG & lose💵 Even if not getting the bottom avoiding stress & paying lil more = 💵& not missing🚀 #BTC #Bitcoin - 6 $BTC Bottoms CURRENT #BTC looks similar to A, you see it? Now, need 2c BUY VOLUME NO SIGNS daily, weekly Some SUPPORT in the area 13k if not, ring bell? RSI getting better but not much else to go on #Bitcoin buys on hold still Good for trading until further positive data
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
BTC CME FUTURES 10 JAN 2023 1830 hrsAbout to enter a previous supply area. Have to play it smart here. Where there was selling in the past may still have some selling left. Thats why its always better to wai for things to come down a bit before entry. The Wykoff patter can come in various forms and can appear different on different time frames. But the idea is always the same.... and its actually super easy to identify. Being able to trade it is another story. But wer need to start somewhere by identifying what it looks like. Note where I drew a horizontal oval/circle over what appears to be a Wyckoff type pattern (or ARE indeed Wyckoff patterns). That "hole" is the low pressure area that price is drawn towards and through. Once you can see this then zoom in to any of these patterns. Look at where this low pressure area has a tendency to be... RIGHT OVER the session divider area (greyed out). The importance of recognizing this area cannot be overstated. Take a look at your charts for any FX, FUTURES or Crypto futures chart. The reason why I think the BTC CME and ETH CME charts are the best ones is because the volume is extremely predictable. You can possible see the same thing on the regular crypto exchanges but it is way more emphasized on the Futures charts...Look at how predictable the volume is here. Understanding support/resistance and supply/demand zones is pretty easy (look left). Now start looking for these low pressure zones and your call acuracy can potentially sky rocket. Just takes some patience and tons of practice. None of this is a secret. You can literally see it for yourself on the chart!! Lets see where it goes next.
CME:BTC1!Long
by dee718
1
BTC1! Futures ( BTC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish riseTitle: BTC1! Futures ( BTC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish rise Type: Bullish rise Resistance: 17595 Pivot: 16710 Support: 16090 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for BTC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 17595, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Alternative scenario: Price could head back down to retest the pivot at 16710, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CME:BTC1!
by Tickmill
BTC1! Futures ( BTC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish riseTitle: BTC1! Futures ( BTC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish rise Type: Bullish rise Resistance: 17595 Pivot: 16710 Support: 16090 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for BTC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 17595, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Alternative scenario: Price could head back down to retest the pivot at 16710, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CME:BTC1!Long
by Genesiv
$BTC bump as called & technical data improving but LIGHT VOLUMENot much buying in $BTC & $ETH Technically #BTC looks ok #ETH looks bit better Need 2c conviction & volume is simply NOT THERE Some technical improving on DAILY but NOT weekly More on #bitcoin & #ethereum below Weekly & daily chart - $BTC Moving Avg crossover but lasted 2 days RSI good #BTC Struggling @ 17800 18500 going 2b TOUGH Blue line #Bitcoin weekly STRUGGLING over RED Moving Avg NO VOLUME I2 DOWN TRENDS White dotted & light purple See how volume CRUSHES to confirm over time? Hard 2 call if BOTTOM
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
BTC Open Long (eng)Hello Friends. Unfortunately, the final downward exit did not wait A big player closed his short position and managed to get a long position during the multi-month fleet. Yesterday before the stock market closing I fixed the volume impulse, which finally indicated a trend reversal, at least the local one. Closed my previous position from Nov. 08.11.2022 from the price 20200. it appeared +15.87% Opened Long from 16980 From 06.01.2023 time 20:12 (GMT) The arrow indicates only the direction of the open trade - without the final target Thus I got encouraging statistics 11 positive deals and 0 negative ones during the time period since 08.07.2021 up to now That confirms correctness of analysis and approach 283.25% profit for a specified period, using leverage x1 Thank you all for attention and good luck in trading in the New Year!
CME:BTC1!Long
by mr_Plusoviu
5
#BITCOIN Looking Most Bullish in YearsIf this aint looking nice i dont know what is, RSI is printing the textbook definition of Bullish Divergence, we witnessed the longest Bearmarket since the inception of Crypto, its time to go ALL-IN again, sell your house, your car, bike, dog, bitch, and be prepared for the last crazy cycle before there is a streak of poverty for the entire economy. This is your last chance, btw Buttcoin only has a few X's as target, dont bother with that dinosaur, go to HEX.com instead. #NFA
CME:BTC1!Long
by TraderCkay
1
BTC CME FUTURES 06 JAN 2022The volume on the BTC futures cart is the most predictable. The CME has a work schedule. Its very easy to identify. Look at the volume... as usual this is the most important indicator. It allows you not only to see where the big players are buying or selling but more importantly volume shows us where they AREN'T buying of selling. I sometimes refer to thiis area in the volume as "Negative space" or where there is little to no volume action. If you are confused all you need to do is activate the session divider on your chart. This will bring up a set of vertical lines (North/south). Where this vertical line intersects with the volume is ALWAYS the lowest volume of the day. There is obviously more to it. The best thing anyone can do is use the playback mode and backtest. The newest features on Trading view make it incredibly easy to keep track of how you are performing, I have a VWAP on here but in all honestly the only indicator anyone needs is volume. There are some price action pattern traders that are good without it but imo opinion if they used volume it would make them even better. Anyway for the short term lets see if it can make it through that negative space.
CME:BTC1!Long
by dee718
The "Recovery" from the Covid Crash was a hoaxAll of 2021 the talking heads were telling us about this amazing recovery. It was all from money printed out of thin air and dumped into the markets; all a lie. The inflation that this caused has crashed the markets. People are having to sell their assets to pay their bills . And rest assured, the financial elite WILL buy up those assets at rock bottom prices (compared to the highs of last year). If one is able, it's a good time to buy bitcoin if it can be held long term. Of course, this isn't financial advice. But I'm sure most would agree and that's what I intend to do. Bitcoin WILL recover. The rest of the legacy markets may or may not. It's hard to say if the economy can come back from what this administration has done.
CME:BTC1!
by bobbyYando
Juggling BTC & elliot clowns We will never see btc lower than 30k ... Some make fun of this narrative and amuse themselves by saying told you so but let's see the truth behind linear logics and TA which did result in "we will never see btc lower than 30k" My narrative is that The worst scenario is the most probable inside a bearish market and hundreds of kX inside a bull market, blah blah blah "We will never see lower prices" narrative is the characteristics of the fifth wave ... I'm taking about golden rectangle on the chart and i remember about people playing with fibs ... I don't claim that i didn't buy the top, somehow i did ... But we need to evolve So we are in a zig zag on btc ... And we might touch the cme magnet 🧲 at 34k ...wherien the suckers will say don't miss this out since that's where they eat greedy retails, i will not buy the top again, i don't wanna be shi** left in the oceans Anything is possible like another drop before the B wave but long term buying is not on the table and 300_1200_5000 are the areas we need to keep an eye on them, if you don't believe that then i say do not f** with long term TA Sorry that i couldn't make this post funnier I might be wrong cause we are humans trying to be the best Patience is virtue of kings
CME:BTC1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn10828932
Still Waters Run Deep - Bitcoin Set To Go Bullish?BACKGROUND Bitcoin (BTC) price has been in decline for the past year with price crashing as much as 20% on a single day in June. Still, the low set of $17,750 on 18 June (Saturday & hence unseen on CME chart) has turned out to be a resilient support level. BITCOIN PRICES RESILIENT RELATIVE TO S&P500 (SPX) and NASDAQ-100 (NDX) NDX and SPX with which BTC is generally correlated have both set new lows since June while BTC has been traded within the same range (of $18k - $20k). This again shows remarkable price resilience. Analysis from market experts points to significant deleveraging within the crypto industry and hence the perception that crypto prices might have bottomed out. SHRINKING IMPLIED VOLATILITY Thirty-day forward implied volatility is at record low. Low premiums to acquire call options to secure outsized gains from price break-out is seen on non-traditional crypto derivatives exchanges. Call-put ratio of 2.09 on Deribit points to 2.09 calls for every 1 put, underscoring the bullishness in BTC. However, call-put ratio on CME is 0.362 at the time of this writing. BULLISH ONCHAIN SIGNALS Turning our attention to on-chain analysis, we notice that Long Term Holders GLASSNODE:BTC_ACTIVE1Y (those who held BTC for at least 12 months) now represent nearly two-thirds of total BTC supply. This again points to further selling pressure being limited. BULLISH TECHNICAL INDICATORS Talking of technicals, BTC/USD is showing a falling wedge formation, suggesting the possibility of a breakout. BTC has retested its June support at DXY local maximum. As the USD is the primary base currency against which BTC is traded, the value of the Dollar strongly impacts BTC price. The DXY has been rallying all year with an unprecedented rate hiking cycle. However, the DXY has started to show a broadening ascending wedge formation, signaling the softening of rate hiking cycle. The CME FedWatch tool currently suggests three more rate hikes are likely by 22nd March 2023. Anticipation is that each of these upcoming hikes will be incrementally lower relative to the last four outsized rate rises. TRADE SET-UP CME’s Bitcoin futures for December are currently discounted relative to spot at the time of this writing, offering investors an opportunity for a long position - amid a macroeconomic backdrop which poses a significant threat to risk assets such as BTC. With that backdrop, an entry around $20,770 with a stop loss at $17.7k (the June low) might provide a compelling trade set-up. Profit could be taken at previous bear market rally highs of $22.7k and $25k delivering a risk reward ratio of 1.38 and 0.63, respectively. CASE STUDY WITH 1 LOT OF CME Micro Bitcoin Futures One lot CME Micro Bitcoin Futures provides exposure to 0.10 BTC. CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring January 2023 requires a maintenance margin of USD 528 per lot. Entry at $20,770 and take profit at $22,700 would result in $193 in profits with a return on capital of 36.5%. However, if the trade turns sour triggering a stop-loss at $17,700, it would lead to a loss of $307 amounting to a loss of 58%. Investors must take note that when prices plunge sharply, stop-losses might be triggered at levels way below the set levels inflating realised losses. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
CME:BTC1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Bitcoin - Buckle Up for the Downward Spiral RideCME: Micro BTC Futures ( CME:MBT1! ) and BTC Options ( CME:BTC1! ) On December 11th, Bitcoin is trading at $16,890, down 63% year-to-date. Current price falls below 50-day moving average (MA) of $18,300 and 200-day MA of $26,470. Meanwhile, Open Interest of CME Bitcoin Futures (BTC) has been growing from about 8,000 lots to 14,000 in December. This strongly suggests that Bitcoin investors are bearish and increasingly use futures to hedge their investments. Is Bitcoin a commodity, a security or a currency? This is a $1 trillion question. Regardless of your own view, what really matters is how financial regulator in your country of residence defines it. In the US, there is a turf war among federal regulators for oversight of the crypto market. A recent Senate bill, if becomes law, would task Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as the primary regulator for Bitcoin and Ether. Indeed, Bitcoin shares key characteristics with other commodities. It’s homogeneous (all Bitcoins are of the same quality), fungible (can be divided up to trade), and with finite supply (21 million in all). Just like gold, it takes labor and cost to mine new Bitcoins and they can be stored for future use. We can’t say the same for other cryptocurrencies. Those issued through an initial coin offering (ICO) resemble stock IPO, and could fall under the jurisdiction of SEC. As a stock investor, you understand that any company could go bankrupt, rendering its stocks worthless. So is the risk of any ICO. Bitcoin is a virtual currency, even the CFTC says so on its website. It facilitates transactions across borders and can be stored as a means for wealth. However, price volatility of Bitcoins is too large to make it a functional currency, limiting its appeal to the general public. Risks Associated with Bitcoin Investment Let’s say we agree that Bitcoin is a commodity. We need to understand its unique risks compared with other types of financial assets. Firstly, extremely high volatility. Below is annualized volatility of various markets. While Bitcoin promoters point to its decentralized structure as a safe investment, it is nevertheless a very risky asset as measured by the off-the-chart price volatility. • Bitcoin: 80.6% (as of December 4th) • S&P 500: 24.01% (as of December 9th) • Gold: 16.45% (as of December 8th) • Euro/USD: 24.71% (as of December 9th) • WTI Crude Oil: 46.82% (as of December 7th) • 10-Year Treasury Note: 6.41% (as of December 11th) Secondly, extremely vulnerable to event risks. Bitcoin is built upon global consensus. An unexpected major event could result in a market rally if it strengthens such consensus. On the other hand, Bitcoin price could be crashed, if the consensus is weakened. • El Salvador announces to make Bitcoin a legal tender (market rally) • Elon Musk tweets that Tesla no longer accepts Bitcoin as payment (market crash) • China bans cryptocurrency trading and mining (market crash) Thirdly, regulatory risks. If you trade on an unregulated Exchange, your crypto assets do not enjoy the same legal protection as a trading account at New York Stock Exchange or Chicago Mercantile Exchange would have. The demise of No. 2 Crypto Exchange FTX serves as an example of such risks. Finally, crypto assets are vulnerable to hacking whether you store them with an Exchange or in a digital wallet. You also run the risk of not being able to retrieve your bitcoins if you forget the private keys or misplace your password. Bitcoin Trading Using Futures Contracts Every trade has a Long and a Short. If you have a short-term trading horizon, you should be prepared to take either side depending on whether you are bullish or bearish. BTC futures are good instruments to express your view with limited amount of money. CME Micro BTC (MBT) is based on 1/10 of 1 BTC. Initial margin is $430 per contract, about ¼ of the full cash value. For anyone who is a HODLer and invests in Bitcoin for the long haul, its 63% decline in a year is very hard to swallow. Hedging your position is a good way to minimize large drawdown on your portfolio. Put options on BTC futures is a vehicle to achieve just that. In my trade idea published in June, I called out an "Unstoppable Downtrend" in Bitcoin and recommended buying CME BTC Put Options. On June 2nd, Bitcoin was $30K. On June 14th, it dropped 25% to $22K. If you bought a put option of BTCM2, you could have realized a sizable return. (Please read the original trade idea for details.) Where will BTC go from here? Technical indicators suggest potential breakout to the downside, as we discussed earlier. Fundamentally, I think that Fed rate hike is the dominant price driver across global financial markets these days, stocks, bonds, FX, commodities and crypto included. BTC price is inversely related to treasury yield. If the Fed sticks to a 75-bp hike, 10-Year Yield would rise and BTC could fall. However, if the Fed moderates to a 50-bp increase, the opposite could happen. Therefore, I would watch the FOMC decision on December 14th closely. This would guide us for longer-term market direction in 2023. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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CME:BTC1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
71