bearish signal on dollar !probability that this trend will become bearish, if the market breaks the support that I have drawn, there are no pictures! for sale the dollars up to the level 103.725
SDX1! trade ideas
$dxy123.250 FULL retrace soon to be complete on 200 day from Volcker Days.
Look at the Fibonacci BLACKHOLE gap.
I see a potential Gap up on DXY and a MAJOR GAP DOWN on $SPX next 21 to 25 days.
Market is finished. Negative Yields will need to go more negative to pay for the reverse repo of staggering Debt.
Hold on tight...
I see negative Yield on 2s and 10s at -4.50 to -6.60 Percent
You've see NOTHING yet! I assure you!
Dollar days Analysis. The price of a dollar will continue to rise in the coming days. With the decline in the price of gold
DX1! - Weekly Market Update, 10/24US Dollar Index is "overbought" and starting to roll over - consistent with the broader market strength we've been experiencing.
As this channels higher, it's putting stress broadly on the balance of the market. When this surges, the market squats.
The parabolic advance in the U.S. remains intactThe advance in the U.S. Dollar Index from the early 2021 low remains very much intact. The monthly chart has an unmet target of 120-plus, so this for now is where I think the USDX is likely to go as long as the parabolic curve is not violated.
Trading The Dxy CorrectionAs 113.86 acts as resistance, look for a break of trendline support to encourage short exposure to target the downside equality objective at 109.09 to complete a WXY pattern
Here is the deal with the USD...UP... within the next three weeks.
First, it has completed the Cup & Handle pattern, a very reliable pattern. Now on the breakout and the projection is mapped (dotted aroow line).
Second, technical indicators of the MACD are bullish, and continue to support an uptrend. There is no bearish divergence observed.
Third, the other set of technical indicators for money flow, and volume are also supporting the continued upside, with no indication of bearish divergence.
Finally, the weekly TD Sequential Sell Setup just completed (green box with black background), with a small kink... that the 8th and 9th candle highs are not higher than the 7th candle high. According to TD Sequential rules, we can expect that at some point in the next three candles (or so), the 7th candle high would be taken out and exceeded in an attempt to Perfect the TD Sequential Sell Setup.
So... expect the USD to end up in the range around the white ellipse.
Perhaps then we might see some real signs of the USD abating its bull run?
Note that with a massive bull run on the USD, markets are being affected badly, and money flow is unusually into the USD (exiting most other markets). Furthermore, the longer this stretches, the worse the unwinding becomes with commodities when the USD retraces. It is like an overstretched rubber band, and its dicey before we know who would release it first... the tension followed by the release of that tension. Oof...
DX1! - Weekly Market Update, 10/17US Dollar Index continuing to grind higher bouncing off of overhead channel resistance. As the market weakens, the dollar strengthens.
dx short now This market is witnessing an unusual movement and the possibility of a decline is very high
My advice is to sell
DXY: decreasing volumesin the last 4 pushes, as is normal in an uptrend, the prices in the rising phases have been supported by upward volumes, the last push denotes a first buy / sell technical change, and the current upward push shows downward volumes , the first sign of weakness of the dollar, if volumes do not rise today and tomorrow we could see resistance on the last high.
this means that all speculative markets could see a new upward push (including gold)
obviously relative bullish push (of a few days) .. the major trend remains short, they are the first phases of accumulation
DX1! - Weekly Market Update, 10/10US Dollar Index futures continue to climb as the market continues to fall...
Support and resistance structures have been adjusted accordingly for your reference.
Dollar Index Trade Levels Ahead of NFP'sIn this update we review the recent price action in the Dollar Index and identify the next high probability trade locations and price objectives to target
Dollar Index next path
Lets try to predict the future of dollar index
By Feb'23, expecting dollar index to rose by 114.9.
followed by a correction to 105 levels approx by Sept'23
and last leg of rally towards 121 levels by Sept'24
So next 2.5 years be prepared for higher inflation and its the NEW NORMAL
Happy investing
TTT
DX1! Big Picture Short term pain for all currencies, but long-term, this price expansion to the downside looks inevitable over the next 10+ years.
USDX Futures Contract AnalysisThis is the U.S Dollar Futures contract expiring in December. I usually use this in Forex but lately the crypto market has been moving like the Forex market so i might as well drop it in here so you can use this information to analyse for the 4th Quarter of the year.
Below the chart, there are 2 panes (the 1st pane indicates the Commitment of Traders report and the second pane indicates the institutional Open interest)
For the 1st pane, focus on the red line which indicates the Commercial Banks. We can see that the red line is increasing which indicates that Commercial Banks (The big players in the market) are increasing their Net Long positions on the Dollar.
For the 2nd Pane, the purple line indicates the Open interest within the market. We can see that the previous 2 weeks, the Open interest dropped drastically. What does this mean to a Smart Money Trader? The commercial banks are doing something called Short Covering (simply said, they are using this opportunity to close their short positions by opening Long positions).
Now that I have explained what the 2 panes are implying... Look at the chart of the Weekly USDX futures contract, price has reached the Bullish Orderblock.
What do you think will happen next 😏 ?
www.barchart.com
DXY Mean ReversionHope everyone is safe during these volatile times. DXY seemingly completed its leg down and now looks to revert to its mean. A safe trade is using pitchforks mapping targets for where the mean reversion could rally to. Dollar strength is also supported by the overall macroeconomic environment.
DXY To Test 2022 Trendline SupportIn this update we review the recent price action in the Dollar INdex and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #16 (short read)Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #16
----------------------------------------------------------------
What is liquidity and what is its significance? -
Liquidity refers to the availability of a product and ensures market participants have the ability to buy and sell easily.
A liquid market increases the likelihood for finding a counterparty when entering or exiting a trade.
What is volume a measurement of in trading? -
Volume in trading refers to the total number of contracts exchanged between buyers and sellers of a market during trading hours over a given period.
Higher trading volumes are considered more positive than lower trading volumes because they indicate the availability of orders in the market allowing better order execution during the trading session.
What is open interest in the derivatives market? -
Open interest is the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as options or futures that have not been settled for an asset.
Open interest equals the total number of bought or sold contracts, not the total of both added together. Increasing open interest represents new or additional money coming into the market while decreasing open interest indicates money flowing out of the market.
RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CORPORATES AND INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS -
Common application of financial market instruments for managing risk and opportunities.
Diversification: Futures Spreads with Currency Futures
A futures spread is usually created when one futures contract is sold simultaneously to the buying of a second related futures contract in order to capitalize on a discrepancy in price. Currency futures spreads combine the use of different currencies usually paired to the U.S. Dollar with the same contract month to express a relationship between the two currencies usually taking into account their strength or weakness relative to each other.
For example, the Singapore Dollar (USDSGD) may be seen to be strengthening (price movement is downward) while the Chinese Yuan (USDCNY) may be seen as being very weak (price movement is upward). To take advantage of this observation, we would want to buy Singapore Dollar (sell the USDCNY future) and sell the Chinese Yuan (buy the USDCNY future) and as a result eliminate the U.S. Dollar.
However, it must be noted that not all currencies are quoted in the same way like the Australian Dollar futures is quoted “AUDUSD”. It means then that to take advantage of a strong Australian Dollar and a weak Chinese Yuan quoted as “USDCNY”, an investor would need to buy both the AUDUSD future and the USDCNY future.
TRADDICTIV · Research Team
--------
Disclaimer:
We do not provide investment advice, nor provide any personalized investment recommendations and/or advice in making a decision to trade. Before you start trading, please make sure you have considered your entire financial situation, including financial commitments and you understand that trading is highly speculative and that you could sustain significant losses.
$DXY: New weekly signal spotted...The dollar index has flashed a buy signal in the daily and weekly timeframes here, I've bot some exposure to it via long calls in $UUP expiring by late September. The weekly Time@Mode trend signal forecast implies a substantial move lasting 6 weeks from here onwards. Downside risk is small, the signal suggests a 3.65 times reward to risk ratio, if the target is reached and the stop isn't, since the signal popped on Thursday this week.
Trading FX signals like this adds a nice source of alpha to a stocks portfolio, I like to focus on the dollar index for simplicity's sake, but at times there's good opportunities in cross pairs as well, for those avid with macro analysis.
Best of luck if buying the dollar here, expect a strong rally until the target is reached at least, with +60% odds.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
DXY WILL THE DOLLAR PREVAIL OR NOT $$$Since the beginning of the year, DXY has been on an uptrend, establishing higher highs and lower highs. I have highlighted the significant support and resistance it has been bouncing off from for better understanding. Currently, DXY has touched the resistance and received rejection, causing it to decline; however, I believe this is the top and we will soon break the support and plummet; nevertheless, if it bounces off the support and continues to move forward, we will still be in a bullish trend and will go on to break the previous high.
DX1! - US Dollar Weekly Update, 10/3The US Dollar Index stalled at the upper YELLOW channel resistance structure, even with the overall market weakness this week.
Maximum 4% upside leftThis is gonna be a blow off top and we so close the top. When the dxy tops out at about 119 ish, sell all your dollars and buy stocks and BTC
DXY Potential Weekly Reversal From Trend Channel ResistanceIN this update we review the recent price action in the DXY and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
