DXY Looking To Fade Above 106In this update we review the recent price action in the Dollar Index and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
SDX1! trade ideas
DX1! - Dollar Index looks creepyOK, that's creepy to me.
On this long term chart we see that price respects the Pitchfork very nicely. But that's not creepy, that's what I see day in and out.
But here it comes: IF this is a monster Bull Flag we see in the grey shaded area, the USD will explode to the upside in the comming months. That means, that with the higher and higher inflation in the US, daily goods become even more expensive, and at the same time, exporting becomes harder and harder.
Now, to stay competitive to the world with exports, the governments usually intervene by manipulating the currency down.
BUT now we face a huge problem:
The FED has printetd money endlessly...billions and billions, and that caused the mess, the inflation. Yes, it's not the Virus, it's the "Cocain" for the gamblers that was printed.
So, what would be necessery to manipulate the USD down? Printing money? But, they should STOP printing money so that the inflation can be tamed. Oh..ough..I think someone is trapped very, very bad.
I have no clue how this kneel could be unwinded without kinda reset, or the hard but efficient way of Paul Volker. It would be equivalent to the very, very bad headache after the furiousest party ever celebrated. (borrowed from Maverick Of Wallstreet on YT).
Oh, yes, you're right: The wealthiest got the party, the headache is for the crowd.
1.20 is the mark so far.
Cheers...
U.S. Dollar Index again attacking overhead resistanceIf the USDX can clear 106 the chart indicates a strong trend toward 119 to 120 is possible
DX1! - Weekly Market Update, 6/13/22US Dollar Index continues to exhibit strength on the back of broader market weakness, looking for confirmation to trade higher.
USD DOLLAR suspect bearish for 102#USDDOLLAR, usd dollar monthly key reversal bar made a new high closed off the low. weekly bar 16th-20th May formed two bar reversal for bearishness ahead. 13th May daily bar is a key reversal bar confirmed with next bar down a insurance bar. 104.40-70 supply area for short. stop loss above 105.10 which is 13th May high.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX FUTURESThe dollar knows a very strong escalation and must pay attention to strong resistance zones from which it can bounce back strongly
US Dollar Index Futures (DX1!), H1 Potential for Bullish riseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 103.960
Pivot: 102.925
Support : 102.240
Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud and along the ascending trendline which supports our bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 102.925 where the swing low support is to the 1st resistance at 103.960 in line with the swing high resistance, 127.2% fibonacci extension and 100% fibonacci projection
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 102.240 in line with the overlap support and 78.6% fibonacci projection.
Fundamentals: The CPI is forecast to rise by 0.7 percent from the previous month's 0.3 percent, but this is unlikely to affect the two 50-basis-point rate rises already factored in for June and July. This gives us a weak bullish view for the US Dollar Index Futures.
Bull FlagLong entry level is 102.65 with a confirmed Uptrend. Flags are a neutral pattern until trendline is broken with a confirmed trend in that direction.
Possible stop below a trendline of the flag or where you see support.
Possible target 1 is larger white type. Target 2 in smaller white type if target one is surpassed. If target 2 is passed, Targets 3 in even smaller white type.
RSI is set on 80. The Alligator indicator is tangled which represents consolidation.
Resistance level above price.
No recommendation.
Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #12 (short read)Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #12
----------------------------------------------------------------
What is Hedging? -
Hedging is the action taken through the use of a financial instrument to minimize the loss or risk of the loss of value of an asset due to adverse asset price movements.
Who are Hedgers? -
Hedgers are market participants such as commodity producers who want to lock in selling prices of commodities they produce, or food manufacturers who want to lock in buying prices of raw materials purchased.
Market participants also include financial institutions handling financial assets and use derivative products such as futures to manage the risk of a portfolio of financial assets.
What is the difference between Physically Delivered vs Cash Settled Futures Contracts? -
Physical delivery is a term in a futures contract which requires the actual underlying asset to be “physically delivered” upon the specified delivery date, rather than being traded out with an offsetting contract.
Cash settled futures on the other hand allows for the net cash amount to be paid or received on the settlement date of the futures contract.
Futures exchanges may offer both types of contracts to market participants who have different purposes for trading futures contracts.
RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CORPORATES AND INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS -
Common application of financial market instruments for managing risk and opportunities.
Diversification: Correlation in Futures
Investors could allocate a portion of their portfolio to establish a managed futures position to deliver non-correlated results under most market conditions, which may serve as a risk mediator within an overall portfolio. This may deliver lower relative returns during periods of price stability. However, during periods of market stress, managed futures could outperform the broad market.
For example, the Asia Tech 30 index which has no Thai companies as a component stock would not be expected to have any Thai Baht (USDTHB) currency exposure and which could be included in a managed futures portfolio at times where there is no or low correlation between the two markets and could be used as a hedge during times of negative correlation.
Diversification: Portfolio Focused on Asset Returns
Individual investors who have a portfolio of foreign stocks will have a return that is composed of the return of the foreign currency-denominated stock plus the change in currency exchange rates. Therefore, investing abroad means having exposure to two different sources of risk and return made up of the underlying asset and the exchange rate.
For a long-term investor, the focus on return-generating assets may be the priority rather than returns from currency exchange rates. This could imply removing currency risk through a clearly defined hedging strategy process initially and then adding back currency exposure at a later stage if it is determined that currency exposures could improve a portfolio’s return. Investors would need to analyze their expected returns with and without currency exposures and determine their net currency exposure that they would like to remove. U.S. Dollar based portfolios could use futures contracts such as the Mini US Dollar Index ® Futures to hedge a basket of foreign stocks denominated in their respective domestic currencies.
TRADDICTIV · Research Team
--------
Disclaimer:
We do not provide investment advice, nor provide any personalized investment recommendations and/or advice in making a decision to trade. Before you start trading, please make sure you have considered your entire financial situation, including financial commitments and you understand that trading is highly speculative and that you could sustain significant losses.
DX1! - Weekly Market Update, 6/6/22US Dollar Index remains reactive to the resistance area I've been indicating over the past several weeks.
We're looking for a confirmation of breakout or breakdown, we haven't seen either yet.
U.S. Dollar Index Future ( DX1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish Drop
Type : Bearish Continuation
Resistance : 104.235
Pivot: 102.510
Support : 101.315
Preferred Case: With the donchian channel and MACD showing further bullish momentum , we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 101.315 in line with the horizontal pullback support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement to our 1st resistance at 104.235 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement .
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 101.315 in line with the horizontal swing low support.
Fundamentals: The latest Fed-speak reiterated the high likelihood of two 50bps hikes in the next two central bank meetings. The path after will be data-dependent.
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to increase by 295k (previous 247k). We currently have a weak bullish bias.
The Dollar Melting TheoryFrom the begging of the 2021 the Dollar is taking very serious position in the global currency map. In fact it is normal, because the US Dollar is still global reserve currency.
But is it possible this hegemonic position to be replaced with another currency?
Some of the biggest names in the investing world think so. Now there are four main theories about the Dollar future ....
You can read the full article here: rodopacapital.com
Dollar Index in range since 1988, weekly timeframeThe Dollar Index has been in a large range since 1986, breaking out of it on both sides at different times, but always returning to the large value zone. If the historical cycles are respected, it will most likely experience a large correction towards the center of the range at least, which would help the rise of many instruments from different markets, including the GC or XAUUSD, BTCUSD (a possible rally of cryptocurrencies), EURUSD and many others.
STRUCTURE & REJECTION SETUP we can say this is an update after the last idea was successfully
we expect this move become abc structure and the rejection level at the heavy volume of sellers as shown on the chart
WAVE & VOLUME SETUP we still expecting one more bullish wave we just need correction and retest high volume node levels as shown on the chart
follow the chart with price action confirmation
DX1! - Weekly Market Update, 5/31/22US Dollar Index continues to exhibit weakness as it retested and failed to settle 1%+ above the previous high when the Covid-19 sell off had occurred.
U.S. Dollar Index Future ( DX1! ), H1Potential for Bearish Drop
Type : Bearish Continuation
Resistance : 102.670
Pivot: 102.475
Support : 101.690
Preferred Case: With price expected to reverse off the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 101.690 in line with the swing low from our pivot at 102.475 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement .
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 102.670 in line with the overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: With the two 50-bps hikes in the US fed fund rate primarily priced in, profit-taking is likely to ensue on the greenback, especially on pairs where the central banks just shifted towards policy normalisation, such as the RBA and ECB. With that, we currently have a mixed to weak bearish bias.
DXY Dollar Index : Tighten your seatbelt, airplane in space 9.5Simple, practical, efficient.
We are looking at the highest level since March 2020.
A very smart trader once told me - Buy low, sell high.
And looking at December 2016, March 2020 - Jackpot would have been hit both occasions with a short position, with 15% down for USD on average both times.
Now let's connect that to today.
What's similar? The level it self. 103.80-104.50 is the range both times the USD came down crashing, showing strong horizontal resistance in this 5 year window.
What else? Extreme stretched MACD showing overbought condition only similar to March 2020 and December 2016.
And? RSI 14 on weekly chart shows the most stretched overbought condition since 2015, when DXY came down from 100 to 91 within weeks.
Now let's look at the other possibility , a clear breakout higher than the horizontal resistance.
This would be a breakout of a very long-term consolidation , which would mean the beginning of a new up-trend that could take the USD to highs only seen before 22 years ago and before than the mid 80's.
Is this probable considering the extreme overbought condition across big and short timeframes?
Is this probable considering the highest national debt in history by far?
Is this probable considering the tech bubble burst?
Is this probable considering the worst inflation in 40 years?
Is this probable considering the rate hike is already priced in?
And the list goes on and on.
Make an informed decision, don't buy expensive.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thank you so much for reading! If you found my idea useful please like and follow, it would mean a lot for me.
My target is to help as many traders as possible, please comment and let me know what would help you most.
I promise to respond to everyone with detail, thanks again :)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DXY Targeting A Wave 4 LowIn this update we review the recent price action in the Dollar INde and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
U.S. Dollar Index Future ( DX1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Continuation
Resistance : 103.265
Pivot: 102.380
Support : 101.985
Preferred Case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 101.985 in line with the 100% fibonacci projection from our pivot at 102.380 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance in line with the overlap resistance, -27.20% fibonacci expansion and 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: In the face of strong inflation, Bostic emphasized that two 50-bps raises at forthcoming Fed meetings are still realistic. We have a Mixed-to-Weak Bearish view on the index.
Fibonacci Convergence and turning points.
We suspect that the US Dollar up move that has been in play for a little over one year is most likely done for now. Firstly, the market has failed to maintain its bid to head above the 103.91/86 peaks seen in 2017 and 2020 AND the daily RSI has a large divergence reflecting a severe loss of upside momentum. This is seen when price makes a new high BUT the RSI does not. But for us the most telling factor is the convergence of the Fibonacci retracements.
Sorry what? This happens when Fibonacci retracements from a number of different lows or highs to find a level where 2 or more retracements are at or near the same level. Over the years I have observed when this happens it frequently coincides with a strong possibility of a turning point.
For example, a Fibonacci convergence can be seen on the US Dollar Index daily chart where we can see the 38.2% retracement from the September 2021 low and the 50% retracement from the 2022 low converge at 99.80/97. The 50% and 61.8% retracements lie 98.41/57 etc
Nearby support is 102.37, the 5th May low, but we suspect that the market will retrace towards its 55-day ma at 100.85 with the 38.2% and 50% retracements at 99.97/80 acting as our short-term target.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
U.S. Dollar Index Future ( DX1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish ContType : Bearish Continuation
Resistance : 103.235
Pivot: 102.830
Support : 102.370
Preferred Case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our support in line with the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci projection from our pivot in line with the horizontal pullback resistance.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance in line with the overlap resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take note of intermediary support at 102.680.
Fundamentals: The overarching aggressive hawkish Fed rhetoric has largely been priced in, allowing longs an excuse to take profit until the central bank chief Powell speaks on 25 May. We have a Mixed-to-Weak Bullish view on the trade.
