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SDX1! trade ideas

the weakness of the US dollar Recent trend: The top of the chart shows the US Dollar Index Futures currently at 102.250, down 0.705 points or 0.69% from the previous trading day. This short-term decline reflects immediate dollar weakness. Long-term trend: From late 2023 to early 2024, the Dollar Index shows an overall downward trend. Although there were some rebounds, the general trajectory remains weak. Monthly performance: Looking at the monthly data at the bottom of the chart, we can see poor dollar performance in the first few months of 2024. Notably, May saw a 1.39% decline and July a 1.60% drop, indicating significant dollar weakness in these months. Year-over-year comparison: Compared to previous years, 2024 shows relatively weak performance for the dollar. For instance, 2023 had mostly positive growth in many months, while 2024 has seen negative growth in most months so far. Technical indicators: The chart shows instances of downward breaks through key support levels, such as the sharp decline in early August, breaking below previous support and further confirming dollar weakness. Volatility: Recent candlesticks show larger lower shadows, suggesting selling pressure and insufficient buying power to support prices, reflecting bearish market sentiment towards the dollar. In summary, this chart reflects the dollar's weakness from multiple dimensions, including short-term movements, long-term trends, monthly and yearly performance comparisons, and technical indicators. These factors collectively corroborate the current weak state of the US dollar.
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by curtischangTW
USD index looks set to hold 102 (for now)US CPI data may not have been as soft as some would have liked, but it retains the view that the Fed will cut rates and achieve a soft landing. The US dollar index reversed earlier CPI-induced losses to close the day flat on Wednesday and form a small bullish pinbar. Its low almost perfectly respected trend support from the July 2023 low, and shows that demand resides above 102. I suspect the USD index might be in for a small bounce, which could see AUD/USD fall further beneath its 200-day MA (job data pending). Quite how much of a bounce I am not sure, but these levels do not look favourable for bears. Also note that a small bullish divergence ahs formed on the RSI (14), and RSI (2) is also oversold to suggest bullish mean reversion is due.
ICEUS:DX1!
by CityIndex
DX1! (USD Index) looks set to bounceThe dollar index formed a small bullish candle on Monday, above the 200-day simple and exponential moving averages. Given the daily volume was relatively high compared with the candle, it could suggest a build up of buying pressure and potential cycle low. The daily RSI (2) was also oversold on Friday. A bullish RSI divergence formed on the 4-hour RSI, and a false spike of the initial low also suggests momentum is shifting higher. Bulls could seek dips within Monday's range or enter live to seek a counter-trend move towards 104.50 (near a 38.2% Fib level).
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by CityIndex
nothingchangehere Chart Pattern Analysis Of DX1! It seems that the bear market of DX1! had started earlier. And the present market is most likely in a consolidation process. That is a running downtrend flat. The continuously increasing supply pressure and long candle body verified it. The price touched a nearest support, Every rebound of the market is a potential good place to short it there. Perhaps, the following candles will test the upper limit of the channel, or test the 0.5fib line of the nearest downtrend wave, If there are signals of lacking demands or increasing supply pressure, It will be a good place to short it. When DX1! In a potential bearish market, That means the other goods (such as Gold\Silver\Copper\BTC…) will most likely in the journey of another bull run. I will try to hold and prepare for this change.
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by nothingchangehere
DXY (US DOLLAR INDEX): DT ContinuationBULLISH: Despite the recent encouraging economic data, such as the Empire State Manufacturing Index and optimistic retail sales forecasts, the dollar has gained momentum and broken out of its downtrend. BEARS: On the 5D timeframe, the analysis of the curve indicates that the US Dollar Index is currently experiencing a downtrend. It appears that the recent rise in the DXY may just be a temporary pullback, with a high probability of returning to the downtrend. The DXY is approaching two levels of resistance, with the first one at 105.87 and the second one at 106.66. These levels could potentially lead to a rejection, causing the downtrend to continue.
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by ProfessorCEWard
DXY The Fake Dance- One of the most important barometers for global currencies and markets in the world. - Most of the time DXY is a well used machine to supress markets (forex, stocks, cryptos, etc..) - When they don't start the printing machine, DXY keeps is strength. - When they start to print DXY starts to dip and markets boom up. - it's really basic and based on "BRRR Machine". - i had a hard time to decrypt this fake peace of resilience. - actually there's none visible divergences on the 1M or 3M Timeframes. - So i decided to push my analysis to 6M Timeframe and noticed few things : - You can notice that from 2008 ( Post crises ), DXY was in a perma bullish trend. - So now check MACD and will notice this fake move on January 2021 ( in graph the red ? ) - MACD was about to cross down, columns smaller and smaller, then a Pump from nowhere lol. - i rarely saw that in my trading life on a 6M Timeframe. - So to understand more this trend, i used ADX (Average Directional Index) - ADX is used to determine when the price is trending strongly. - In many cases, it is the ultimate trend indicator. - So if you look well ADX columns, you will notice that a strong divergence is on the way. - First check the Yellow Doted Line in July 2022 when DXY reached 115ish and look the size of the green columns. - Now check today (red doted Line), and look again the ADX green columns is higher, but DXY diped to 105ish. - So like always, i can be wrong, but i bet on a fast DXY dip soon or later. - it's possible to fake pumps, but it's harder to fake traders. Happy Tr4Ding !
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by thecryer
5
USD/CHF to lead DXY higher, AUD/USD, EUR/USD lower?Our bias is for the US dollar index to rise to 105 over the near-term. The daily chart respected trend support from the December low, and the 4-hour chart shows a small ascending triangle which implies a break above resistance. Out of the FX majors, USD/CHF looks ready to break above resistance and lead the dollar broadly higher. Bears could also consider a short on AUD/USD on the assumption the high of RS (right shoulder) has been established, and seek a move down towards the neckline at a minimum. A break of which could see it head for the projected H&S target around 0.6580. If the US dollar index goes higher, surely EUR/USD should move lower. Bears could enter short with a view to target the swing low around 1.0835 or the bullish trendline.
ICEUS:DX1!
by CityIndex
Chart Pattern Analysis Of DX1! K1 and K2 is a strong bearish dark cloud cover pattern, If the following candles couldn’t close below K2 to verify the strong momentum. It will be a good place to buy here. If the following candles close upon the resistance, It is a second good place to buy in. K2 is also a potential right top of a large scale bearish double top pattern. If K3 rebound under low volume, It will be a good place to sell it there. Buy-105.5/Stop-105.3/-Target-110
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by nothingchangehere
Bearish Elliott Wave Sequence in Dollar Index (DXY) Favors DownsShort Term Elliott Wave in Dollar Index (DXY) shows incomplete bearish sequence from 4.17.2024 high. Down from there, wave 1 ended at 104.08 like the 1 hour chart below shows. Rally in wave 2 unfolded in a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave 1, wave (w) ended at 104.79 and dips in wave (x) ended at 104.39. Wave (y) higher ended at 105.12 which completed wave ((w)) in higher degree. Pullback in wave ((x)) ended at 104.33 and rally in wave ((y)) ended at 105.18 which completed wave 2 in higher degree. The Index has turned lower in wave 3. Down from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 104.63 and wave (ii) rally ended at 104.89. The Index then nested lower with wave i of (iii) ended at 104.36. Wave ii of (iii) ended at 104.76. The Index extended lower in wave iii towards 104.14 and wave iv ended at 104.25. Wave v lower ended at 103.99 which completed wave (iii). Near term, as far as pivot at 105.18 high stays intact, expect short term rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
ICEUS:DX1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Will the Dollar continue its Downtrend or change its Direction?The dollar index #DX1! respected its previous downtrend and the News about CPI (Consumer Prices) today helped with this movement to the downside. Will the Dollar continue its Downtrend or will change its Direction to the Upside? CPI m/m Actual: 0.3% Forecast: 0.4% Previous: 0.4% Empire State Manufacturing Index Actual: -15.6 Forecast: -9.9 Previous: -14.3 "The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies including the yen and the euro, fell to a one-month low at 104.41, but later pared losses to trade 0.25% lower at 104.77". References: -https://www.forexfactory.com/index.php -https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-droops-ahead-crucial-cpi-test-yen-under-pressure-2024-05-15/
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by ValdiviaTrading
Swing trade shorts for USD index (DXY)A potential swing trade short has presented itself on the daily chart. DXY failed to closed above 103 and formed an inverted hammer on the daily chart, and its upper wick met resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Daily trading volumes also declined whilst prices rose gradually, against the prior (and more aggressive) leg lower. This suggest the -day rise is corrective, hence the call for another leg lower. Bears could fade into rallies within Tuesday's candle with a stop above and target the 102 area, near the 61.8% Fib level and high-volume node.
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by CityIndex
$DXY Weekly OverviewDirectional Bias: Bearish Narrative - The initial forecast i did for DXY played out well last week() with volatility coming into the market to push prices lower. I am still bearish on the dollar - We traded below previous months low, and this is where i would like to pause to get new context to go lower from the weekly timeframe, after the creating an expansion candle, would like to see weekly create a new FVG low to indicate further decent for the DXY - The Daily Has a bearish FVG overlapping with the Fair Value area. this is where i would like to see price continue lower from for this week. However with volatility coming into the market from Tuesday CPI, we may see price consolidate today. Targets: - Previous Weeks Low - 102.300 Medium Term Targets: - Monthly Low 101.030 - Monthly Swing Low- 100.320 - Quarterly- 99.220
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by Phronesis_Flow