IDEA ABOUT US DOLLARThe US dollar is bullish, the appearance of the shooting star as well as the large volume indicates that a trend reversal may take place, so it will be strongly recommended to sell if the yellow resistance is broken.
SDX1! trade ideas
Market is overblownDollar index is set to pop the bubble.
If you made some money, now is a good time to get off from the table.
Elliott Wave View: Dollar Index (DXY) Could Extend the Rally HigShort-term Elliott wave view in Dollar Index suggests cycle from October 28 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from October 28 low, wave 1 ended at 94.3 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 93.82. Wave 3 is currently in progress with subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 94.62 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 93.87. Index then resumes higher in wave ((iii)) to 96.24, and dips in wave ((iv)) ended at 95.5.
Expect the Index to extend higher 1 more leg before ending wave ((v)). This should complete wave 3 in higher degree. Afterwards, it should correct cycle from November 4 low in wave 4 in larger degree before the rally resumes. Near term, as far as pivot at 95.5 low stays intact, expect the Index to continue to see further upside to end wave 3. Later, expect larger degree wave 4 pullback to also find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside. Potential support area for wave 4 can be measured later once wave 3 completes at 23.6 – 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of wave 3.
DXYThe U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the value of a basket of currencies of the majority of the U.S.'s most significant trading partners. This index is similar to other trade-weighted indexes, which also use the exchange rates from the same major currencies.
DXY Bullish SequenceIN this update we review the current bullish sequence in the DXY and identify a high probability trading pattern to play
Dark Days For the Dollar Haters???I find it difficult to see the world "excuse me" Duh Metaworld any different than times of passed. True things have been fun but I doubt that our fun is now coming to a conclusion. It's been really encouraging to get stock tips and the next best crypto buys from friends and family.
All in all I still feel good about the dollar and the even greater opportunities that will be seen as the cloud of FOMO finally dissipates. (This includes the down with dollar crowd)
No Advice to give just thoughts that I can't shake after the last 6 years in the world of CRYPTO Making Dollar Coin
🤷♂️ #Fixed IDK Protect Your Neck!
🙏 FOR JUST A HEALTHLY PULLBACK!
""KEEP CALM AND MANAGE THY RISK!""
I am The CoinSLayer 👨💻😈
Dollar Index Bearish ReversalDollar Index completed a bearish butterfly. Expect a downside reversal from marked point.
The Dollar VacuumI am long USD or short CAD whatever way you want to look at it. Have been since 1.22 USDCAD. That dollar index has recently crossed above the 200 weekly SMA. Though short-term RSI might cool off a bit with a pullback to 200 weekly SMA. My previous mention of Double bottom on the USDCAD chart still seems good. The real catalyst for the dollar index seems to be the everything bubble narrative. I currently hear that narrative less than the always-up inflation story. The everything bubble would be a huge deflationary move. Think everything goes on sale who wants cash for that? "Cash is trash" and most people have lots of debt. So assets go down debt stays the same or interest goes up. Where does the cash come from? People buying other people's discounted everything. Also, USD deflation is inflation on other nations currency likely hyperinflation of many.
This is my theory and in no way financial advice.
Watch the $DXY for $CL_F #Oil The recent move in the dollar has put a lot of pressure on oil recently...as it has been skidding around $80 the past few days.
Yesterday's API report showed a small increase in oil inventories and the market is waiting for confirmation from EIA later today.
It looks as though a confirmation has already been priced in and only an unexpected increase well above +600k barrels would shock the market to further downside in the short term.
The structural market to watch is the dollar which has seen a 200 basis point move in a very short time frame. The DXY looks quite a bit extended. If we get a reversion to the mean in the dollar...oil should explode higher.
Today we have quite a few Fed speakers and a 20 year bond auction which could move the dollar.
So today may be a make or break day for oil.
DXY Key TestIN this update we review the price action and momentum in the DXY and identify some high probability trade locations
DXY two Way Trading OpportunitiesIn this update we review the Pitchfork play in the DXY and identify a couple of high probability trade locations to trade both the long and the short side
DXY [11.11.21]Not legal and financial advice;
Any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
DXY Intraday Set UpIn this update we identify a high probability intraday set up in the Dollar Index to play for an upside extension totes 95
Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #5 (short read)Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #5
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What is the bid-ask spread? –
Bid-ask spread is the amount by which the ask price exceeds the bid price for a market. The bid-ask spread is the difference between the highest price that a buyer is willing to pay and the lowest price that a seller is willing to accept. An individual looking to sell will receive the bid price while the one looking to buy will pay the ask price.
A wide spread may indicate low supply or demand for a market at that point of time during the trading period, while a narrow spread would indicate sufficient supply and demand for a market meaning strong buying and selling competition is at play.
What is the role of a market maker in the financial markets? –
Market makers are market participants who ensure there is enough liquidity and volume of trading in the markets and offer to sell a market at the ask price and will also bid to purchase a market at the bid price to traders and investors.
How does the bid-ask spread relate to liquidity of a market? –
The size of the bid-ask spread from one market to another differs mainly because of the difference in liquidity of each market. Certain markets are more liquid than others and that commonly is reflected in their lower spreads. Price takers demand liquidity while market makers supply liquidity.
For example, foreign currency futures would have very low spreads during the trading day given the use of currencies as a medium of exchange to do business globally compared to live cattle futures, which relates more to businesses in the United States domestic market.
RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CORPORATES AND INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS –
Diversification: Futures Spreads with Currency Futures –
A futures spread is usually created when one futures contract is sold simultaneously to the buying of a second related futures contract in order to capitalize on a discrepancy in price. Currency futures spreads combine the use of different currencies usually paired to the U.S. Dollar with the same contract month to express a relationship between the two currencies usually taking into account their strength or weakness relative to each other.
For example, the Singapore Dollar (USDSGD) may be seen to be strengthening (price movement is downward) while the South Korean Won (USDKRW) may be seen as being very weak (price movement is upward). To take advantage of this observation, we would want to buy Singapore Dollar (sell the USDSGD future) and sell the South Korean Won (buy the USDKRW future) and as a result eliminate the U.S. Dollar.
However, it must be noted that not all currencies are quoted in the same way like the Australian Dollar futures is quoted “AUDUSD”. It means then that to take advantage of a strong Australian Dollar and a weak South Korean Won quoted as “USDKRW”, an investor would need to buy both the AUDUSD future and the USDKRW future.
Diversification: Portfolio Risk Using FX Futures –
Individual investors taking a portfolio approach with managed futures and spot foreign exchange could be entering into emerging market currency positions including for example Hong Kong Dollar, Singapore Dollar or South Korean Won.
Depending on the view of each of the currencies in the portfolio, it could be constructed to eliminate exposure to the U.S. Dollar. However, there may be a time during which investors would like to introduce U.S. Dollar exposure and they could do so by using Mini U.S. Dollar Index ® Futures with a contract value of $10,000.
For example, the U.S. Dollar Index ® may be observed to be in a medium term uptrend and an investor may want to consider entering into a long position in the Mini U.S. Dollar Index ® Futures based on their strategy of choice and exit the position when either their profit target is achieved or their loss limits are triggered.
TRADDICTIV · Research Team
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Disclaimer:
We do not provide investment advice, nor provide any personalized investment recommendations and/or advice in making a decision to trade. Before you start trading, please make sure you have considered your entire financial situation, including financial commitments and you understand that trading is highly speculative and that you could sustain significant losses.
DXY NEAR HISTORICAL TLDXY index is next to a multiyear tl, anyway very possible it stops even before that, fib resistance at 95.225 and volume cluster at 95.73 represent a big supply zone.
DX / DX1 - Friday's Dollar "Less Transitory"The Taper of Bond Purchases begins @ $15 Billion, it will be the shortest "Taper" in History.
Over and done before the announced Timeline of 7/8 Months.
They'll either slow it dramatically or reverse course Mid-Point due to - you guessed it... "Policy Error"
Not that it amounts to a drop in the Bucket given O/N Repos are approaching $2 Trillion, recently cresting
$1.8 Trillion with no signs of abatement.
Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen announced Friday - "Inflation will be with
us throughout 2022."
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The Global Supply Chain "Crisis" - yes it is now a "Crisis" continues to create issues for People around the
Globe.
Rolling downhill, the wreckage is Far and Wide.
Elevated Inflation Data sent the Dollar in a rather large vertical - +0.8475% - a shove higher, on a
Friday no less.
The 10Year Note Futures (ZN) are performing the squatty potty routine, attempting to hold on to 130.
A feat that has been ongoing for weeks on end. To some, this is "Bullish."
Dunno seems to be Selling it has worked here from the 134s, some Traders appear to enjoy arguing
with success.
Personal Income declined 1% M/M - Spending increased 0.6% - PCE Core @ 30 Year Highs
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The Dollar came off the 50SMA @ the Lower Trend Line of the rising Channel.
Backtesting the Breakout... expected.
Volatility next week is going to be "Frustrating" as Jerome would echo and has.
Pesky Inflation, from the Pests @ the Federal Reserve.
The DX is gaining strength and momentum... oops. It was all but ignored Friday.
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The 007s are back, true to form, it's to the Moon again. Insistent to lose their Capital
to the scrouges of Inflation. Have it again Baggies, we'll take your Capital and thank you again.
Our scorecard, there on the back nine... 8 under Par while the 007s gorged on Hot Dogs off the
10th Tee. Eventually, too many Manhattans & Dogs had the careening into the Pond on Hole 12.
At 18, they were 22 over, but insisted the bet was 36 Holes... it wasn't - revisionism is the new
truth.
Keys were handed over to the pride of Aston Martin's... with all of "M's" goodies in tow.
One drunken Bondie needed a ride to his Estate, didn't feel a thing when ejecting his seat
in the parking lot, prey/predator/splat.
BONDs will PRICE INFLATION again.
It is dead ahead, TLT Filled its Gaps as we indicated on the FR of 139, time to begin hunting
the 139s to 134s.
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We see the DX Price Objective just shy of 98.
Oh my... that is up there... what, pray tell would become of Yields?
Higher, Higher, Higher with INTENSIFYING VOLATILITY.
This is not an environment the Equity COmplex will escape unharmed.
We suspect the actual harm will be greater than before.
The Dollar has been monkeyed with for several weeks, FX - JPY / 6e, the
uptrend for Uncle Buck appears ready to surge.
Indicators for FX, Equity Market Volatility Event - Equities will be smoked
again, and WHY the RUSH to A higher Fill. The Silly Phase is well underway.
Retail Bulls remain in the UTL Camp, a bonfire of the Vanities.
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We are patiently waiting, sticks are being stripped of bark, Marshmallows
being plated, nearing time to begin the Roast.
dollar in restDollar finds way up for a bit of a break
After the failure of the declining triangle, the dollar will be pumped up
Go short setup on DollarA close below 94.10 with stop loss at recent high signals a 3 to 5 days decline. Trade wisely.
Uncertainty Grips Markets as Optimism WanesMarket sentiment has deteriorated since earlier this year amid still elevated financial vulnerabilities and mounting concerns about risks to inflation.
Amid the prolonged and painful pandemic, risks to global financial stability have remained contained—so far. But with economic optimism fading, and with financial vulnerabilities intensifying, this is a time for careful policy calibration. To an unprecedented degree, the world’s central banks, finance ministries, and international financial institutions have asserted—for a year and a half—policy support for economic growth. Now they must craft strategies that safely approach the next stage of monetary and fiscal policy action.
The sense of optimism that had propelled markets in the first half of the year is at risk of fading.
The world’s systemically important central banks know that any unintended consequences of their actions could put growth at risk—and could, conceivably, lead to abrupt adjustments in the world’s financial markets. Uncertainty is especially intense because of the persistent pandemic-stricken atmosphere where society confronts the challenges inherent in “the three Cs”: COVID-19, crypto, and climate change, as discussed in our latest Global Financial Stability Report.
Fading optimism
Massive monetary and fiscal policy support for the economy in 2020 and 2021 helped limit the economic contraction that began at the start of the pandemic and that—for much of this year—supported a strong economic rebound. In many advanced economies, financial conditions have eased since the initial months of the pandemic. Nonetheless, the sense of optimism that had propelled markets in the first half of the year is at risk of fading.
Investors have become increasingly worried about the economic outlook, amid ever-greater uncertainty about the strength of the recovery. Uneven vaccine access, along with the mutations of the COVID-19 virus, have led to a resurgence of infections—fueling concerns about more divergent economic prospects across countries. Inflation readings have been above expectations in many countries. And new uncertainties in some major economies have put markets on alert. Those uncertainties are triggered by financial vulnerabilities that could increase downside risks, surging commodity prices, and policy uncertainty.
The deterioration in market sentiment since the April 2021 Global Financial Stability Report resulted in a significant decline in global long-term nominal yields in the summer, driven by falling real rates, reflecting concerns about long-term-growth prospects. In late September, however, investor anxiety about inflationary pressures pushed yields higher as price pressures then started to be seen as potentially more persistent than initially anticipated in some countries—entirely reversing the earlier declines.
If investors, at some point, reassess abruptly the economic and policy outlook, financial markets could endure a sudden repricing of risk—and that repricing, if sustained, could interact with underlying vulnerabilities, leading to a tightening of financial conditions. This could put economic growth at risk.
Risks also bear close monitoring in other key areas. Crypto asset markets are growing rapidly and crypto asset prices remain highly volatile. Financial stability risks are not yet systemic in the crypto ecosystem, but risks should be closely monitored, given the global monetary implications and the inadequate operational and regulatory frameworks in most jurisdictions—especially in emerging market and developing economies. Likewise, as the world continues to seek ways to speed up the transition to a low-greenhouse-gas economy in order to avoid the negative economic and financial stability outcomes associated with climate change, a promising opportunity is emerging in the financial sector. While assets under management in climate-themed investment funds remain relatively small, inflows have surged, and there is a promise of cheaper funding costs for climate-friendly firms, as well as greater climate stewardship by funds.
A not-so-easy trade-off
Amid still easy financial conditions overall, our analysis finds that financial vulnerabilities continue to be elevated in several sectors—but are masked, in part, by the massive policy stimulus. Policymakers are now confronted with a challenging trade-off: They must continue to provide near-term support to the global economy, even as they must simultaneously try to avoid the buildup of medium-term financial-stability risks. Managing this trade-off is a key challenge confronting policymakers.
A prolonged period of extremely easy financial conditions during the pandemic—which certainly has been needed to sustain the economic recovery—has allowed overly stretched asset valuations to persist. If that overstretch continues, it may, in turn, intensify financial vulnerabilities. Some warning signs—for example, increased financial risk-taking, as well as rising fragilities in the nonbank financial institutions sector—point to a deterioration in the underlying foundations of financial stability. If left unchecked, such vulnerabilities may persist into the longer term and become structural issues.
Policy action
Policymakers will need action plans that guard against unintended consequences. Monetary and fiscal policy support should be more targeted and tailored to country-specific circumstances, given the varying pace of the recovery across countries. Central banks will need to provide clear guidance about their future approach to monetary policy, aiming to avoid an unwarranted or abrupt tightening of financial conditions. Monetary authorities should remain vigilant, and if price pressures turn out to be more persistent than anticipated, act decisively to avoid an unmooring of inflation expectations. Fiscal support can appropriately shift toward more targeted measures and be tailored to country-specific characteristics.
Policymakers should take early action and tighten selected macroprudential tools to target pockets of elevated vulnerabilities. This is critical for addressing the potential unintended consequences of their unprecedented measures, given the possible need for prolonged policy support to ensure a sustainable recovery.
Policymakers in emerging and frontier markets should, where possible, begin to rebuild fiscal buffers and implement structural reforms. While facing several domestic challenges (higher inflation and fiscal concerns), some of those economies remain exposed to the risk of a sudden tightening in external financial conditions.
In a context of higher price pressures, investors are now pricing in a rapid and fairly sharp tightening cycle for many emerging markets, although the increase in inflation is expected to be temporary. Rebuilding buffers and implementing enduring reforms to boost economic growth prospects will be pivotal to protect against the risk of capital-flow reversals and an abrupt increase in financing costs.
IMF - blogs.imf.org
DXY DailyIf the price breaks the support area(GREEN HIGH LIGHT), a bearish trigger will be activated.
Dollar index in the near futureThe dollar index is approaching a resistance. At the same time, divergences can be seen in the indicators. In case of reacting to this resistance, this index can initially drop to around 93.5 and if it breaks its white support line, it may fall to 92. But if this resistance is broken by the good news, this analysis will be rejected. Technically, there is a high probability of a fall, but for this we have to wait for the news. A lot of news is on the way this week.
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