What if the USD rally is only just getting started?The USD rally has entered its seventh week and continues to defy its seasonal tendency to weaken in Q4. And that is simply because the macro backdrop 'Trumps' its average performance this time of the year. Today I take a step back to admire the bigger-picture view of the USD index, to show why I think this rally could still just be getting started.
MS
DXU2025 trade ideas
is this the top?dx1!, dxy, us dolla - is nearing a top.
do with this information what you will, but thought i'd let you know just in case you were wondering.
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it is possible this fifth wave sees an expansion,
and if it does, the situation in the global markets can substantially worsen.
>let's not go there unless we need to.
✌
DX! is currently showing a bullish trendPrice Volatility: From January to early March 2023, DX! experienced fluctuations with an initial drop followed by a rise and then another decline. The lowest point was around 102.75 at the end of January, while the highest point reached 108 in mid-February.
Support and Resistance:
Support Level: The lowest point of 102.75 during this period indicates strong support at that price level.
Resistance Level: The highest point of 108 shows significant resistance at that level.
Overall Analysis
Currently, DX! is in a rebound phase but may face resistance near 105.34. If it breaks through this resistance level, there will be further upside potential; however, if it fails to break through, it may retest the support level around 102.70.
It is important to note that based on seasonal data, November and December tend to perform poorly, so there may be short-term downside risks.
In conclusion, DX! is currently showing a bullish trend, but close attention should be paid to resistance levels and volume changes to determine whether the upward momentum can continue.
COT Analysis - Currencies - DXY 6E & 6M SET UP FOR TRADES!COT analysis shows that the Euro and Mexican peso are nicely setup for longs upon a confirmation of bullish trend change on the daily. The only "fly in the ointment" here is that the DXY commercial positioning is still very bullish, which is a bit of a mixed signal. Ideally, we like to see the DXY & majors give opposing signals simultaneously.
That being said, 6E & 6M are nicely setup for longs upon a confirmed daily bullish trend change.
Have a good week.
Dollar Index Daily Channel Breakout PossibilitiesWhen we observe the first day of the month as an opening channel, we see the Dollar Index has significant moves when breaking out of those channels.
In the current market, approaching the US elections, the DXY is at a critical point and looks set to continue its bullish run.
However, we will be waiting until the end of the 1st Day of November to establish a new channel and waiting for breakouts on either side.
US Dollar UpdateAfter several weeks of rallying, the US Dollar Index is showing signs of potential profit-taking. 📉 Here's why:
• Reached the 200-day moving average 📊
• Hit the 61.8% retracement from the June-September drop 🔄
• Daily RSI is overbought at 83 📈
On the weekly chart, the market is also hitting key resistance levels:
• 55-week moving average 📅
• Peaks from 2017 and 2020 📊
Formidable resistance is in play, so we may see some profit-taking soon. If you're in, consider raising your stops! 🚀
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DXY Top Down AnalysisUtilizing the very effective and non-discretionary MAC strategy, coupled with lower timeframe divergences for entries, we take a look at DXY from the Quarterly, Monthly & Weekly perspective.
Have a great weekend.
DXY LongAll biases are green, and money is flowing back into the DXY. Bullish for the upcoming week. EUR/GBP/USD short."
Cycle Analysis - Dollar IndexI am SETUP to hunt long TRIGGERS in the DX this week based on the COT strategy.
So I thought I'd look, do cycles support the COT strategy looking for Longs?
It turns out, they do.
Decennial & Annual Predictable Zones (APZ's) supportive of up move to Early/Mid October
Intermarket analysis finds a striking 60.9% correlation to DX's current price action to that of the price action found in 1991. Based on the intermarket analysis, we expect a major cyclical low sometime around now.
The long term blend of the 51.5 month & 581 day cycles show a major cyclical low should be around the corner for DX.
The short term blend of the 20.6, 29.9 & 115.6 day cycle is supportive of longs until a short term cyclical high early-mid October.
DXY StrengthDXY has hit the weekly demand zone
commercials are buying heavily from this zone after the COT report release
Retailers are bearish
also a gap should be filled on the futures chart which could also lead to strength from here
seasonality is still up trending for this month
Remember to buy when there is blood on the street "all retailers are supporting sell because of the noise of the news" so expect the contrary
Trade safe
DX! here's a slight bearish bias in the short term
Price Action:
The current price is 100.470, showing a recent downward trend.
A support zone is marked on the chart between 102.000 and 102.700, indicating potential support at this level.
Volume:
Trading volume has increased in recent weeks, suggesting heightened market interest in the dollar index.
Seasonal Analysis:
The table at the bottom shows historical performance for different months.
For example, September typically has a positive return (average 3.21%), while October's performance is more neutral (average 0.98%).
Technical Indicators:
The recent decline may find support in the marked support zone.
If the price breaks below the support area, it could lead to further downside.
In summary, the U.S. Dollar Index is currently near a key support area. Traders should closely monitor price action around this zone and volume changes to gauge future direction. The seasonal trend suggests a potential for positive performance in the coming months, but this should be considered alongside other factors.
For the short-term outlook, it's crucial to watch how the price behaves near the support zone. A bounce from this area could indicate a potential reversal, while a break below might signal further weakness. The increased volume suggests that significant price moves may be imminent.
Given the current market conditions and the chart analysis, there's a slight bearish bias in the short term, especially if the support zone doesn't hold. However, any significant economic data releases or geopolitical events could quickly alter this outlook. Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies based on how the price reacts to the key support level and any upcoming market-moving events.
Why the US dollar bear should tread with careThe USD saw a sharp reversal higher despite a 50bp cut, simply because the markets were positioned for a more dovish dot plot. I have argued in prior analysis the USD exposure is a bit stretched over the near-term, so perhaps shorting the USD is getting a bit stale. We also have several key markets at inflection points after a risk event. Matt Simpson takes a technical look.
High Timeframe Analysis of the Dollar Index DXY - Short IdeaDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only, showing how I intend to participate in this market. Trading involves significant risk. Do your own due diligence.
Utilizing my Multi Timeframe strategy, I have identified that I would like to look for SHORTS on DXY. To clarify, I'm not saying I'm blindly shorting this market. If I see price action that checks the boxes for this strategy, I will take the short. Until then, I do NOTHING.
SETUP - > TRIGGER - > FOLLOW THROUGH.
Feel free to shoot me a message with any questions.
Have a great week!
USD Dollar weekly key reversal bar, sign for bulish reversallast weekly bar of the Month of August is weekly key reversal bar, made a new low & closed off the high. current week price pulled back to its 0.618% & 0.70% fib level. last fib level expecting before rally up is 0.79% which is 100.68. last and extreme level may touch 100.50 as well. if price breaks & closes below the 100.50 then it can go down further. but key reversal is indication for buying now. resistance levels are 102.30 & 102.50.
weekly performance of U.S. Dollar Index Futures The chart shows the weekly performance of U.S. Dollar Index Futures (DX!).
1. **Current Trend**: The index is currently trading around 101.29, showing a recent decline. The price has dropped below the support level of 102.00, indicating bearish momentum.
2. **Volume Analysis**: The trading volume is relatively stable, suggesting consistent market interest. However, significant volume spikes could indicate potential trend reversals.
3. **Historical Performance**: The seasonal table below the chart shows mixed monthly performances over the years. Notably, September has historically shown a strong average gain, which might suggest a potential rebound.
4. **Resistance and Support Levels**:
- **Resistance**: The resistance level is around 102.70, which the index needs to break to confirm a bullish trend.
- **Support**: The immediate support is at 101.00. A break below this level might lead to further declines.
5. **Technical Indicators**: While specific indicators are not visible, the general price pattern suggests a bearish trend. Watching for bullish reversal patterns or indicators like RSI or MACD could provide additional insights.
6. **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment appears cautious, with traders likely waiting for more economic data or geopolitical developments to influence the dollar's strength.
In conclusion, while the current trend is bearish, historical data suggests potential for recovery in September. Traders should watch key levels and volume changes for clearer signals.
USD DOLLAR possible reversal for 102.50USD Dollar hit the 100.50 price level which is strong support area of last 8 months. 28th December 2023. this is quite strong support area which should fight to hold and reverse price upside to the 102.50. Buying zone 100.50, stop loss: 100.20, target: 102.50. Trend is quite bearish, reversal trade takes time to digest supply for long. If USD Dollar holds that strong support then might see fall in gold, eur and other currencies as well.
USD bears! Markets don't move in a straight line (forever)We stand back to admire the long-term chart of the US dollar index, and yes there could be further downside over the coming weeks. But a quick check on the daily timeframe makes us wary of jumping into an already well-established short, given potential support levels nearby and the fact everyone and their dogs seem to be bearish the dollar.
DXY LongDXY Long potential
DXY has reached weekly demand zone
waiting for price to reach daily demand zone
price undervalued against bond long term
also waiting for undervalued to happen short term
seasonality looks great up trending for quite some time
retailers are selling heavy and commercials are buying slightly which where we should be riding with them
PS: news will give you headache always trust your system
Trade safe
DXY Big Long Momentum Ahead ?!The Dollar Index (DX1!) has been in an uptrend since the spring-summer of 2008, when it reached its lowest point.
Since October 2009 (after the first leg down of the uptrend), whenever the net positions of retailers in the CoT report turn negative (or approach zero) AND retailers reach an extreme low in the CoT index (either in the short-term OR long-term), a significant run-up typically follows. Please note that these are weekly charts.
The only exception was in June 2020, when the price continued to decline until later that year in December, which ultimately led to a substantial 2-year uptrend.
At the same time, the 5, 10, and 15-year seasonality indicators show that we are currently at the bottom, which is expected to last until the end of September, suggesting an uptrend.
Additionally, there is a weekly demand zone ahead around 101.400 - 100.320. If enough participants join in, a significant run-up is expected.
The fundamentals are in place; we just have to wait and see if the demand zone holds.
BE AWARE, this is the Dollar Index, which means all other major currencies, especially EURUSD, will be affected if this scenario plays out.
Dollar Futures reveal viability of a very common pattern.I have gone through every trick I know trying to settle on analysis for the dollar. Let's be honest, the past year and a half have been nothing but squirrelly, sideways movement that appears to go nowhere and do nothing. In fact, we are basically sitting at the average price over that time period. SO, how should we read this? Well, this is how I read it...
Over the past 1 year and 7 months, price has arrived at the same price: Sideways movement, like a consolidation, and at the end of a long move up, counting off of the May 2011 low. The move from 2011 appears complete, from a Elliot wave (read: structural) standpoint, and a Fib (read: levels) standpoint. From a strength standpoint, however, the September 2022 peak ended on the daily chart with continuing bullish divergence WITHIN THE WAVE 5. I call it a wave 5 because although its internal strength remained bullish, all peak readings indicated bearish divergence off of the March 2015 wave 3 of 3 top.
This line of analysis leads me to believe that we have, at the very least, the unfinished business of generating more negative, bearish divergence prior to anymore notable downside. Since, as I mentioned, Fib targets have been fully satisfied, meaning higher highs are unlikely, we may be gearing up for a strong move up. A move with outsized strength that fails to reach new highs, thereby creating hidden bearish divergence, since our high was not technically fully bearish.
In simplest terms, this appears to be consolidation at the end of a decade of bullish price action, which is bullish. Most technicals "technically" point us down, and the same goes for fundamentals, but there are irregularities in these metrics that point us up. Pattern, Strength, and Levels analysis give us plenty of room to the upside to finish this bull run, so long as we stay under 114.778, assuming a strong move, OR move up on weakness with only marginal new highs.
Conclusion: BULLISH.
the weakness of the US dollar
Recent trend: The top of the chart shows the US Dollar Index Futures currently at 102.250, down 0.705 points or 0.69% from the previous trading day. This short-term decline reflects immediate dollar weakness.
Long-term trend: From late 2023 to early 2024, the Dollar Index shows an overall downward trend. Although there were some rebounds, the general trajectory remains weak.
Monthly performance: Looking at the monthly data at the bottom of the chart, we can see poor dollar performance in the first few months of 2024. Notably, May saw a 1.39% decline and July a 1.60% drop, indicating significant dollar weakness in these months.
Year-over-year comparison: Compared to previous years, 2024 shows relatively weak performance for the dollar. For instance, 2023 had mostly positive growth in many months, while 2024 has seen negative growth in most months so far.
Technical indicators: The chart shows instances of downward breaks through key support levels, such as the sharp decline in early August, breaking below previous support and further confirming dollar weakness.
Volatility: Recent candlesticks show larger lower shadows, suggesting selling pressure and insufficient buying power to support prices, reflecting bearish market sentiment towards the dollar.
In summary, this chart reflects the dollar's weakness from multiple dimensions, including short-term movements, long-term trends, monthly and yearly performance comparisons, and technical indicators. These factors collectively corroborate the current weak state of the US dollar.
Multi Timeframe Analysis - 12 Month - 2 Week - H12 Using multi-timeframe analysis to identify targets and entries on futures markets.
USD index looks set to hold 102 (for now)US CPI data may not have been as soft as some would have liked, but it retains the view that the Fed will cut rates and achieve a soft landing.
The US dollar index reversed earlier CPI-induced losses to close the day flat on Wednesday and form a small bullish pinbar. Its low almost perfectly respected trend support from the July 2023 low, and shows that demand resides above 102. I suspect the USD index might be in for a small bounce, which could see AUD/USD fall further beneath its 200-day MA (job data pending).
Quite how much of a bounce I am not sure, but these levels do not look favourable for bears. Also note that a small bullish divergence ahs formed on the RSI (14), and RSI (2) is also oversold to suggest bullish mean reversion is due.
