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U.S. Dollar Index Futures

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The Rise of the Dollar Ends with a CrisisHistorical rallies regarding the US dollar show an unpreceded rise for high-risk assets, including stocks, which in the past had led to some sort of financial/economic crisis. For sure, always is very difficult to make an accurate forecast in price and in time, but we must not forget the explosion of the tech bubble in the 2000s, the ‘’Great Recession’’ in 2008, as well as the sovereign debt in 2012 since the one factor that has a high correlation to those declines, was the strengthening of U.S Dollar at least by 19% each time. Just to remind you that the benchmark S&P500 has already fallen by 23% this year. An estimation from Morgan Stanley is that the profit margin of US companies will be dropped 0.5% for every 1% of the rising Dollar. And if we consider that during the fourth quarter due to the rise of the Dollar earnings will fall by about 10%, we can imagine the disaster that will follow in stocks, excluding other issues of energy costs. Moreover, the occurrence of major central banks’ policy tightening now in an aggressive manner is amazing. Therefore, this new bubble has to break out suddenly. The possibilities are raising for more rate hikes, according to the recent stubbornly high inflation, which in turn will strengthen the Dollar even more. And this is good for the US because strengthening the dollar means cheaper imports and a record purchasing power for Americans. But for non-American citizens is bad and especially for the other Central Banks that have deposits in US dollars. It will be more expensive to repay their loans – companies and emerging market governments – since, from the debt data perspective, $83 billion dollars are going to be matured by the next year covering 32 countries. According to the World Bank, there are warnings of heading a global recession and many developing economies will face huge damages respecting the cutting in spending on education and health care to cover their debt payments. What’s even more concerning for now is that volatility and VIX is still relatively low despite lower stocks. So is extreme fear yet to come? Check our VIX chart in one of our past ideas.
ICEUS:DX1!
by ew-forecast
4
Inflation & Interest Rate Series / Dollar and Gold I have started this inflation and interest rate series, in our last video, we discussed "Inverted Yield". Today will be discussing the relationship between: . Inflation . Interest rate . Dollar and . Gold Today's Content: • Why with higher interest rates, it strengthens the USD • Is USD the strongest currency? If not, then who? • Strategy to counter inflation • Interest rate higher, but a lower USD? Dollar Index: . Measure the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies. . These are: the Euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona. . With the increase of money supply over the decades, it causes currencies dilution. When currencies weaken, inflation follows. COMEX Gold 0.1 = US$10 1.0 = US$100 10 points = US$1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Stay tuned for our next episode in this series, we will discuss more on the insight of inflation and rising interest rates. More importantly, how to use this knowledge, turning it to our advantage in these challenging times for all of us.
ICEUS:DX1!Education
by konhow
6
$DXY - It has been my best friend for while...$DXY - It has been my best friend for while... We have a saying in trading: The trend is your friend until it breaks! We reaching key areas, my longer term target if we break above 110 areas next 120 IF we get there. I do really like to keep an open mind to either direction. However, we had a large pull back this morning which makes sense to have. Keep an eye on the key areas we at break above or below shorter term and longer term the big question is - Is this a pattern brewing of a rising wedge to have a pull back medium term? Things to keep in mind are the key fundamental data we had FOMC yesterday dovish and 75 hike it was expected the slimmer chance weeks went by of 100 and that did sound like a joke imo. However, we pulling back FX Majors check HT as it really key and we entering near end of month as well. Remember: Follow your own trade plan, it will make you very successful. TJ
ICEUS:DX1!
by Trade_Journal
Elliott Wave View: Dollar Index (DXY) Bullish Cycle Looks IncompShort term Elliott Wave view on Dollar Index (DXY) suggests cycle from 8.10.2022 low is in progress as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 8.10.2022 low, wave 1 ended at 110.786 and dips in wave 2 ended at 107.69. The Index has resumed higher in wave 3 with internal subdivision as another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 110 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 109.27. Index then resumed higher again in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 110.26, and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 109.35. Index resumes higher in wave (iii) towards 111.57, and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 110.612. Near term, while above wave (iv) low at 110.61, expect the Index to extend higher within wave ((v)) to complete wave 3. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave 4 to correct cycle from 9.13.2022 low before the Index resumes higher again. As far as pivot at 107.7 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside. Potential target higher is 100% -161.8% Fibonacci extension from 8.10.2022 low which comes at 113.8 – 117.6 area.
ICEUS:DX1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Triple divergence of the weekly RSI on US Dollar Index Triple divergence of the weekly RSO in the US Dollar Index ahead of the US CPI and the FOMC points to a significant loss of upside momentum, we would allow for the possibility for the market to mean revert to its 20-week ma at 105.76. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by The_STA
3
USD Index Hits ResistanceUSD Index is coming impulsively higher in the 4-hour chart after a three-wave A-B-C correction in wave IV back in August, so the current recovery is a new five-wave rise. But it's a fifth wave that can be now in late stages here at 110 - 111 area. Divergence and potential wedge formation also suggest that the upside can be limited. Drop below 108.00 will suggest that the top is in place, at least a attemporary one. Also, the current DXY has a lot to do with EURUSD of course, which for now stayed about the recent low as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde noted that they are ready for further hikes on upcoming meetings, taking the deposit rate into neutral territory.
ICEUS:DX1!
by ew-forecast
3