DXY H1 Looking To Fade Into 101.80'sIn this update we review the recent price action in the #DXY and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives ot target
DX1! trade ideas
Dollar remains weakThe United States Dollar Index attempts to push above the descending trend line but failed miserably as price reverses back below it.
If price were to break below the 100.69 region, price can potentially descending towards the 99.365 region.
USD to drop a bit more, and create ripplesThe week ended a little confused, post NFP and other announcements.
The only slight clarity here is that over the next week (or few weeks), we should see the USD dropping a bit more, breaking down both support lines, for a few days. IF "lucky", the USD futures should reach target at 99, even for a day or two.
Now, this comes with a bit of a stretch with volatility in the other parts of the market too, affecting commodities, indexes, forex etc.
Later analysis posts, is based on the background scenario in an increased likelihood of a USD decline.
USD looks to break last low and support... The USD Futures Daily chart is already pointing that way... Once it breaks the yellow support line, it will look for 99.
MACD slowing its ascent, while VolDiv is crossing down itself and below zero line.
TD Setup is bearish for the USD.
Bearish outlook overall.
USD to slide more...watch the rest of the week.
The USD is likely to slide down further based on the MACD; but VolDiv suggests that it is not likely to be a drastic off the cliff type.
A revisit to the last low is very probable (small yellow ellipse) as it broke down the TDST (red dotted line) and should continue to remain below. If it closes the week below the TDST, USD is in a firm bearish trend and next downside target is at 99.
USD Dollar Index possible doubble btoomDemand zone for long 100.80-40. 14th April daily key reversal bar indication for strength ahead. Price in range between descending triangle. if breaks down demand level then possible for 0.9330.
us dolla?good eve'
last post for awhile ---
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-pretty channel,
-rejected 221 dma
-bear flagging,
-less people are interested in this currency these days.
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us dollar looks to me like it's ready to capitulate.
my estimated downside target is 92.
> do what you will with this information.
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read further:
Dollar Index with very bullish patternsHey traders!
Seems like since few days we have nice accumulation patterns on Dollar Index. Sellers loosing power in last two days and buyers taking slowly control. Very strong buying waves on the last highs give extremely bullish patterns.
Trading around upper channel line is giving information that buyers try to go high buy still they absorb short selling. the dollar index is weighted by the euro in 57%, so if the breakout accrued on this chart EURUSD should be traded short.
Indicators used to market analyses:
Wyckoff Wave Chart
Wyckoff Wave Volume
Wyckoff Wave Trend
Dollar still below descending trendlineThe United States Dollar Index ascends towards the descending trend line but quickly reverses from it.
The Dollar remains weak as long as price is below the descending trend line and long set up can only be considered when price breaks above the 102.75 region.
4-28-23 [dxy]good day,
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yesterday i shared a very conservative case on the us dollar,
but after seeing the unfolding structure,
i have come back to revise the case.
i am predicting that the dxy expands upward in a fairly aggressive impulse upwards into may via an expanded flat.
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will update as it goes,
but for now it's looking like we're heading up to roughly 105-106.
stay safe!
A possible rebound zone We are entering in a very reactive area. Possible bounce from here, target ca. 103. Lose the box and we visit 98-100 range. NFA
Dollar trades sidewaysThe United States Dollar Index trades sideways throughout the week, looking for the next impactful factor to determine the next short term trend.
Bearish bias remains as price trades below the descending trend line. Bullish bias can only be considered when price breaks out of the 102.75 region.
Dollar seem to await for the upcoming FOMC, before beginning of the new short term trend.
Candlestick reversal at recent lowThe United States Dollar Index dipped towards the recent low support but managed to close the week above.
A breakout of the 100.69 support can drag the Dollar towards the 99.365 region.
Any short term shift in trend can only be confirmed if price managed to break above the 102.75 resistance region.
DXY (Long) - Temporary bottom for the dollar
The dollar has fallen significantly on the back of falling interest rates and the bank crisis
Currently sitting at a crucial support going back several years
My thesis is a temporary bounce up to the 50SMA on the weekly
Bullish engulfing candle on the daily suggesting a temporary reversal
The yields on bond have also slightly reversed, hitting a 50SMA on the weekly; yields and the dollar collerate
This strategy could be also used for any of the USD pairs of your choice, whichever one shows the more strength relative to the dollar
It is a short-term trade with very good risk/reward
I would use the support line as a stop-loss
Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I am happy to help
If you like my content, Please leave a like, comment or a donation , it motivates me to keep producing ideas, thank you :)
Gold trade4.14.23 There was a good short trade on gold today that I missed because I was preoccupied with other things.... but the reversals are always the same way with slight variation....So it's worth Going over that market even if you didn't actually trade It because I'll show you all the tools and relationships that you want to look for that are on the chart to help you see what a reversal looks like. I had to Go back to the Dxy to emphasize why you needed to stick with a long trade even when the market looked like it might trade lower. It is very important to understand how the market can spook you out of a good trade When Gut feelings Will give you the wrong trade decision Unless you are tuned in to what the primary behavior of this market is. The detail in the video will be more clear.
How I find trade location part 24.14.23 I'm going to add a couple caveats to this second part: I focused on a market that was trending lower and coming to an area where I wanted to be a buyer to open a trade. It is my favorite trade without a doubt. there are other times when a market isn't really Overbought or oversold but it may be trending and it's doing retest where you would look for the market To find another trade... and that market is more orderly and it's not necessarily overbought or over sold. Some markets Are ranging and that's a different kind of market that you can trade. Support resistance lines, Gaps, Retest of gaps, failure to retest the gap,,, Looking for buying gaps and selling gaps It's about market behavior and market dynamics, And they can help you develop a better feel of the market if you work with it and test it and then decide what makes you comfortable and what you can live with. I am a discretionary Trader who relies on market behavior with a high probability and a small stop. if I see no potential target of significance because of impediments for the market to move in the direction that I'm Trading. I can't take the trade. if I see that it needs a large stop I never take that trade, I will let it go because it's not my kind of trade.... and I absolutely do not lose sleep over it.
dxy 4-14-23gm,
i called both the bottom in 2021, and the top last year on the dxy
(view posts at the bottom of this thread).
very few people heard my voice -
swinging by into the public communities to share this very general post today.
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dxy came down in 5 waves from my upside target, seemingly.
possible w5 isn't in yet as it could see a slight extension - also possible that it is.
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once 5 waves down is indeed confirmed, a three wave retracement will take place, with force.
when this retracement takes place, the markets will take a beating.
nfa.
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PS. if the dxy see's an extension for this last leg, the bear market will get extended by 365 days.
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How I find trade location4.14.23 The video Looks at the dollar... DXY.....But it's about reading the market...how I take A trade as efficiently as I can.... Using the Terminology that I use. This is the first part I will complete it with a second part.
Dollar Tumbles as US DXYUS Dollar Index Dollar Tumbles
The US dollar pulled back against a basket of currencies this week after better-than-expected inflation data
target 89.550
DXYExpect a spike around the shown entry level. This will drive enough retail on enjoying their longs and even more entering fresh new ones. A pullback will be needed. You can scale out of the position gradually above 2RR.
The bearish macro trend will stay intact with the upcoming fundamental developments and mainly interest rate divergence with other still be to hiking countries. This is a pullback trade!
DXY (US Dollar) Elliott Wave Sequence Favors LowerDXY (US Dollar) Showing 5 swings impulse Elliott wave sequence lower from the 3/08/2023 high, which ended at $101.415 low on 4/05/2023. Above there, it favors a corrective bounce in 3, 7 or 11 swings before downside resumes. DXY proposed ended (B) at $105.883 high on 3/08/2023. Below there, it placed ((i)) at $103.484 low & ((ii)) at $105.103 high. ((ii)) was 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of first leg. It placed ((iii)) at $101.915 low on 3/23/2023. It bounced off in ((iv)), which ended at $103.357 high on 3/24/2023. Finally, it ended ((v)) as diagonal sequence at $101.415 low on 4/05/2023 to finish wave 1. Above there, it favors a corrective bounce in wave 2, which should fail below (B) high to resume lower as the part of (C) leg, which confirms below February low.
Above wave 1 low, it placed (a) at $102.052 high & (b) at $101.755 low. It favors higher in (c) of ((w)) of wave 2. It placed i at $102.297 high, ii at $101.988 low & iii at $102.807 high. Below there, it favors pullback in iv before final leg higher in v to finish (c) as ((w)) within extreme areas. It may even ended ((w)) leg & correcting lower in ((x)) leg to retest the low before turning higher in wave ((y)) as the part of 2. Wave 2 bounce should fail in 7 or 11 swings from extreme areas in bearish sequence to resumes downside later in wave 3 of (C), which confirms below $101.415 low.
