DXY (Long) - Temporary bottom for the dollar
The dollar has fallen significantly on the back of falling interest rates and the bank crisis
Currently sitting at a crucial support going back several years
My thesis is a temporary bounce up to the 50SMA on the weekly
Bullish engulfing candle on the daily suggesting a temporary reversal
The yields on bond have also slightly reversed, hitting a 50SMA on the weekly; yields and the dollar collerate
This strategy could be also used for any of the USD pairs of your choice, whichever one shows the more strength relative to the dollar
It is a short-term trade with very good risk/reward
I would use the support line as a stop-loss
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DX1! trade ideas
Gold trade4.14.23 There was a good short trade on gold today that I missed because I was preoccupied with other things.... but the reversals are always the same way with slight variation....So it's worth Going over that market even if you didn't actually trade It because I'll show you all the tools and relationships that you want to look for that are on the chart to help you see what a reversal looks like. I had to Go back to the Dxy to emphasize why you needed to stick with a long trade even when the market looked like it might trade lower. It is very important to understand how the market can spook you out of a good trade When Gut feelings Will give you the wrong trade decision Unless you are tuned in to what the primary behavior of this market is. The detail in the video will be more clear.
How I find trade location part 24.14.23 I'm going to add a couple caveats to this second part: I focused on a market that was trending lower and coming to an area where I wanted to be a buyer to open a trade. It is my favorite trade without a doubt. there are other times when a market isn't really Overbought or oversold but it may be trending and it's doing retest where you would look for the market To find another trade... and that market is more orderly and it's not necessarily overbought or over sold. Some markets Are ranging and that's a different kind of market that you can trade. Support resistance lines, Gaps, Retest of gaps, failure to retest the gap,,, Looking for buying gaps and selling gaps It's about market behavior and market dynamics, And they can help you develop a better feel of the market if you work with it and test it and then decide what makes you comfortable and what you can live with. I am a discretionary Trader who relies on market behavior with a high probability and a small stop. if I see no potential target of significance because of impediments for the market to move in the direction that I'm Trading. I can't take the trade. if I see that it needs a large stop I never take that trade, I will let it go because it's not my kind of trade.... and I absolutely do not lose sleep over it.
dxy 4-14-23gm,
i called both the bottom in 2021, and the top last year on the dxy
(view posts at the bottom of this thread).
very few people heard my voice -
swinging by into the public communities to share this very general post today.
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dxy came down in 5 waves from my upside target, seemingly.
possible w5 isn't in yet as it could see a slight extension - also possible that it is.
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once 5 waves down is indeed confirmed, a three wave retracement will take place, with force.
when this retracement takes place, the markets will take a beating.
nfa.
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PS. if the dxy see's an extension for this last leg, the bear market will get extended by 365 days.
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DXYExpect a spike around the shown entry level. This will drive enough retail on enjoying their longs and even more entering fresh new ones. A pullback will be needed. You can scale out of the position gradually above 2RR.
The bearish macro trend will stay intact with the upcoming fundamental developments and mainly interest rate divergence with other still be to hiking countries. This is a pullback trade!
DXY (US Dollar) Elliott Wave Sequence Favors LowerDXY (US Dollar) Showing 5 swings impulse Elliott wave sequence lower from the 3/08/2023 high, which ended at $101.415 low on 4/05/2023. Above there, it favors a corrective bounce in 3, 7 or 11 swings before downside resumes. DXY proposed ended (B) at $105.883 high on 3/08/2023. Below there, it placed ((i)) at $103.484 low & ((ii)) at $105.103 high. ((ii)) was 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of first leg. It placed ((iii)) at $101.915 low on 3/23/2023. It bounced off in ((iv)), which ended at $103.357 high on 3/24/2023. Finally, it ended ((v)) as diagonal sequence at $101.415 low on 4/05/2023 to finish wave 1. Above there, it favors a corrective bounce in wave 2, which should fail below (B) high to resume lower as the part of (C) leg, which confirms below February low.
Above wave 1 low, it placed (a) at $102.052 high & (b) at $101.755 low. It favors higher in (c) of ((w)) of wave 2. It placed i at $102.297 high, ii at $101.988 low & iii at $102.807 high. Below there, it favors pullback in iv before final leg higher in v to finish (c) as ((w)) within extreme areas. It may even ended ((w)) leg & correcting lower in ((x)) leg to retest the low before turning higher in wave ((y)) as the part of 2. Wave 2 bounce should fail in 7 or 11 swings from extreme areas in bearish sequence to resumes downside later in wave 3 of (C), which confirms below $101.415 low.
Dollar trades at recent lowThe United States Dollar Index approached the key support region but managed to trade above on the later day of the week.
The Dollar may continue to consolidate between 101.49 to 102.75 region. Dollar upside can only be considered when 102.75 resistance region is breached.
Dollar struggles to breakout of resistanceThe United States Dollar struggles to trade above the resistance region at 102.75 and fell back towards the recent low.
Bearish sentiment for the dollar remains as price continues to trade below the 50 exponential moving average in the 4 hour time-frame.
However, if price were to once again trade above the resistance region at 102.75, price can potentially head higher, towards the 104.085 region.
Future of the DollarMost Recent Swing - 39RR
If there is enough interest in these callouts, I will further expand upon them by adding detailed instructions, stop losses and take profits.
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Dollar back to key level
The Dollar met our initial target level and now trades back up at key resistance level.
Any indication of reversal can potentially push price towards the 101.48 region.
However if price managed to break further towards the upside, price can potentially move towards the 103.64 region.
MORE DOWNSIDE FOR THE DOLLAR?The United States Dollar continued its ascend earlier on the week but reverses from the 103.225 support region back towards the resistance zone at 104.085 region before heading lower again.
The reversal of the resistance region at 104.085 can potentially lead the Dollar towards the key support region at the 102.25 region. However, if price managed to trade above 104.085, the Dollar can potentially trades back towards the recent high at 105 region.
DX1! Weekly Technical AnalysisDX1! Weekly - No RECOMMENDATION or ADVICE Status / EDUCATIONAL only - Support, Resistance, Confluence, Cluster, Fibonacci, Pitchfork , Cup and Handle - Hope it Helps, Good Luck
DISCLAIMER - This communication is not trading or investment advice, recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any investment product is provided for informational, educational and research purposes only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The author or persons involved in the conception, production and distribution of this material cannot be held responsible for transactions or any financial loss or damages resulting directly or indirectly from the use or application of any concepts or information contained in or derived from this material. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any person who chooses to use this information as a basis for their trading assumes all the liability and risk for themselves.
US Dollar and Crude Oil Euro UpdateHey Traders so today wanted to give quick update on these charts. US Dollar still showing signs of strength and Crude Oil is now back in downtrend in my opinion. Keep in mind that all these technical developments can change daily. But I believe you only have to check it once a day when the market closes to see the long term trend. I think if you see a bottom or top formation on the daily charts normally it is accuarate because it takes the market time to carve out these long term formations. Of course always keep in mind fundamentals can alter these techincal analysis formations also.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford