Dollar is ready to ripUSDXY is basically carvingh out its bottom and is ready to rip to the next levelso im looking to long AMEX:UUP from here
DXY trade ideas
Weekly FOREX Forecast Mar 17-21: Buy EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD vs USD!This is an outlook for the week of March 17-21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
The USD Index is entering a Daily +FVG, which is nested in a Weekly +FVG. This is a bearish indication for the USD, which is a potential bullish situation for EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD. This will be potentially bearish for the USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDJPY. Wait for the market structure shift going in the direction of your TP, and enter on the pullback.
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DXY: trading range 4HThe DXY is moving within a trading range on the 4H chart. We can sell at the top around 103.80 and buy at the bottom of the range around 102.80.
However, we anticipate an upward breakout (in the direction of the trend on the longer timeframes). Therefore, we can either buy at the bottom of the range or wait for a bullish breakout and a pullback to position ourselves for a buy. Our target would then be 105.45.
DXYFundamental Drivers Affecting DXY Next Week
Department Responsible:
US PMIs: S&P Global.
Fed Policy: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Trade Policy: US Treasury Dept
Key Events and Data Releases
S&P Global Flash PMIs (March 24)
Manufacturing PMI Forecast: 51.9 (Previous: 52.7).
Services PMI Forecast: 51.2 (Previous: 51.0).
Impact:
Above Forecast: Supports USD (DXY↑) on resilient economic activity.
Below Forecast: Weakens USD (DXY↓) as Fed rate-cut bets rise.
Trump’s Tariff Implementation (April 2)
Scope: Potential 25% tariffs on EU/China imports.
Impact:
Risk-Off Sentiment: Safe-haven demand for USD (DXY↑).
Trade War Fears: Could hurt US growth prospects, pressuring USD (DXY↓).
Fed Speeches
FOMC Member Bostic (March 24): Hawkish rhetoric (delayed cuts) supports DXY↑; dovish hints weigh on DXY↓.
DXY Technical Outlook
Scenario Bias Key Levels Catalyst
Bullish=Strong PMIs + Hawkish Fed + Tariff Escalation
Bearish= Weak PMIs + Dovish Fed + Tariff De-escalation
Neutral= Mixed Data + Geopolitical Calm
Fed’s Data Dependency:
The Fed remains "meeting-by-meeting," making incoming growth, inflation, and jobs data critical for USD volatility.
Bearish Momentum:
DXY holds below key technical indicators , signaling a bearish bias. A break below 103.30 could accelerate declines toward 102.84
Trump Policies:
Tariffs and immigration policies amplify USD volatility, with risks skewed toward stagflation (weak growth + high inflation).
Conclusion
Bearish Bias Dominates despite 3days buying momentum
Weak PMIs and dovish Fed rhetoric could push DXY toward 102.90. or 100
Tariff escalation risks and resilient US data are the only bullish catalysts.
Volatility Triggers:
April 2 Tariff Deadline: Monitor for trade war escalation.
Fed Speeches: Bostic’s tone will set short-term USD direction.
the fed member speech will be priced in terms of stance for clear directional bias .
FVG The priority FVG IS Near the 1.06-1.07 and the DXY IS IN A W PATTERN WHICH IA USUALLY BULLISH, SO WHAT I THINK THE DXY WILL HIT AROUND 1.06+ before being rejected to the downside, as history can and will repeat itself with the trump presidency. Although I've heard people say will go to the 1.22 range but that seems a little far fetched, anything is possible but it seems more likely for price to do a hard rally and then be rejected to the downside, but I'm a complete noob so take this as a grain of salt
Dollar Index - Will Rate Hikes Cause Risk Off Conditions?It’s been a risk off environment over the last few weeks and because of this, we have seen the appreciation of GBPUSD and EURUSD which was called weeks in advance.
With a massive imbalance above and daily sellside liquidity taken, the question is will Dollar Index fill the daily SIBI before the rate announcements happen?
If this happens, it will be a classic ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ scenario.
Next week will be very volition due to the news events being released and this could be the catalyst for price to expand into the local SIBI outlined on the daily timeframe.
DXY in daily charts (update) Hello my friends
There is not any thing more to add to my last idea of DXY. It is not confirmed yet but please keep it in your mind.
Thanks
dxy buy tradeThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing an upward trend, indicating increasing momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a bullish crossover, further supporting the potential for an upward move.
Big DXY Rally Might be StartingI'll start this by going over the case for the DXY rally broadly and then dial into the reasons why this seems like the optimal level to look for it starting.
Working left to right.
The 2021 Breakout
A very sharp rally happened in 2021 in the USD. It was one of the most impressive things seen in the USD for decades. DXY had downtrended for a long time. Ranged for a long time. The rallies in this were weak (See extreme left for example) and then suddenly this hyper trending move came breaking some important levels and the general dull mood of DXY price action.
It put in that nice strong rally and then it had a bit of a head fake high - which could have been the completion of the first bullish impulse wave.
If that hypothesis is true, at some point the most might of USD rallies is coming. The question would be how deep is the correction.
That could end around where we are and it's possible there could be a flash crash in the DXY to retrace the 2021 rally. In the event we'd have that sort of thing, I think when the pending harmonic signal was forming - we'd have seen a move lower to complete the M shape.
Harmonics are reversal patterns and for a while all I traded was harmonics (Was a great idea in a range, got me nailed against a trend). I've found when there's a clear looking harmonic setup and you place a limit order for it, in the times it doesn't fill fairly soon - it's likely it will not fill at all. Price can go an extended period in the other direction.
So while DXY bulls would have to be aware of the risk a valid correction could still flash crash from these levels, this is a good spot to be looking to see it there are clear signs of trend formation.
The first obvious sign of that would be the 76 retracement, which is where we are close to now.
Looking more at the entry now.
DXY is an index of currency pairs traded against the USD. This index is very heavily weighted towards the EURUSD. DXY is essentially EURUSD inverted- at least most of the time. DXY has been crashing lately mainly due to the parabolic rallies in EURUSD - but this is now at the 76 retracement level.
Looking closer at this we can see the 76 rejection and now we're at the 61 fib. If this breaks, this can be an early sign of uptrend failure. If the 61 isnt support we usually trade the 50 fib and if that's not support a lot of the time we're seeing the turning of the trend.
When it comes to betting on the DXY the more practical thing to do is to trade EURUSD. If you have access to Forex markets you'll get better costs and liquidity trading EURUSD short as a proxy for DXY long.
If EURUSD makes the breaks of the next couple levels then it's likely to capitulate to the low of the last leg.
That would express itself in a big recovery for DXY. It could even be the start of that big new trend leg.
This would give early targets on DXY around 122 and probably thinking it's getting a bit overdone around 126.
Which would be a hell of a USD rally.
Here's a good way to think about it. IF the thesis 2021 was a bullish wave 1 is correct, then it has to be true that the following wave 3 will be more impressive than wave 1. Has to be true. Otherwise that was not a valid wave 1 and wave 3. So I'm not saying we can know the wave 3 has to come, but we can know if it came it'd predict strong uptrend to 122 in DXY.
Massive EURUSD crash about to start.
$DXY is pulling back to a strong support zoneTVC:DXY is reaching a strong support zone and a pullback could end here of continue to 100. Key support level is being tested.
DXY aka USD suspicious leading diagonalif price confirms it is a leading diagonal, we will see a corrective move down before another spike higher.
Am eagerly waiting for the confirmation to load up positions in eurusd gpb aud etc as DXY will show the way, it moves up mean USD bullish and hence eurusd gbpusd etc moves down.
Good luck.
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DXY, bullish or bearish?Welcome back!
Today i'm posting a small idea on the DXY. Usually i cover crypto but the macro is important. A weak dollar correlates with more risk being taken and a strong dollar with less risk being taken. Hence my analysis of the DXY.
In the above chart a couple of things can be seen which makes the outlook hard to predict.
On one side there is a bullflag on the monthly timeframe with a target of 130!
On the other side, looking under we can see a bearish MACD cross and a bearish stoch RSI. On average it takes half a year to a year for a cross like this to recover.
This causes me to be bearish on the dollar and bullish on risk-on assets.
Thanks for reading
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Bearish Outlook with Key Levels📉 Bearish Bias on U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Chart
🔹 Resistance Zone & Stop Loss 🚫
📍 Resistance: 104.200 - 104.432
🛑 Stop Loss: 104.432 (Above resistance zone)
🔸 Support Zone 🛠️
📍 Intermediate Support: 103.300 (Possible bounce)
🔻 Target Point 🎯
📍 Target Price: 102.232 (Expected downside)
📊 Price Action Outlook:
✅ Bearish Scenario:
Price rejected from resistance 🔽
Lower highs forming ⚡
Breakdown expected toward 102.232 🎯
❌ Invalidation:
If price breaks above 104.432, bearish setup fails 🚫
🔥 Conclusion:
⬇️ Sell Bias below 104.200 targeting 102.232
❌ Cut losses if price closes above 104.432
Weekly CLS I KL Monthly FVG, break out is inevitableHey Traders!!
Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions!
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion.
✅By understanding how CLS operates—its specific modes and timings—you gain a powerful edge with more precise entries and well-defined targets.
🛡️Follow me and take a closer look at Models 1 and 2.
These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions.
📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow.
Wishing you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader!
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
David Perk ⚔
DXY refuse to reduceThere was a breakout candle through the price of 103.853, confirming the downtrend but then this candle was immediately eliminated, showing the psychology of refusing to sell at this price. Waiting for confirmation of a correction to a better selling zone
DXY March 21 Analysis DXY
March 21 Analysis
Price parent bias is bear
Price is Discount M/W/D
Previous session PREMIUM and PREMIUM on the daily range
NO NEWS
March 20 delivery
Price was in a discount. Asia small consolidation takes minor sell side rallied in London to FVG created in the dealers range and noted buy side targets. Small consolidation. NY rallies to take key buy side from March 10 taken in NY. Retraces to the daily range 50 just barley in a Premium and goes into consolidation.
Note the magnet that the event horizon has been this week.
As price came down to the .70 on the Monthly range price is in a consolidation whipping between the .70 and .618 with long tailed candles. This week price widen that consolidation range.
March 21 delivery
Logic says that price will seek the 50 and lower FVG inefficiencies to rebalance. Note what liquidity is taken and go from there. No news can be high resistance, stay sharp.
Study notes
Price started the week on a sell stops raid making a new low on Tuesday. And yesterday making a higher high coming into the bottom part of HTF FVG.
My Model Factors
Price will have to do the following for me to trade
*session liquidity taken
*macro time only
*first presented FVG
*4 candle pattern
*hour analysis down to 1 min every 15 minutes
*every hour mark out what price has done
Stay open to build narrative once Asia opens.
Stay open to reading price delivery
Breakout on the DXY - Is the DXY going higher?What is the DXY?
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) measures the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies. A rising DXY indicates a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This can have significant effects on cryptocurrencies, particularly in the short- and medium-term. Here are some of the key impacts:
What does an increase in the DXY mean for crypto?
Negative Impact on Crypto Prices: As the dollar strengthens (rising DXY), the relative value of other assets, including cryptocurrencies, can decline. Many cryptocurrencies are priced in U.S. dollars, so when the dollar strengthens, the same amount of dollars may buy fewer crypto assets, leading to price declines for cryptocurrencies.
Safe-Haven Movement: When investors flock to the U.S. dollar due to its rising strength, they may move capital out of riskier assets like crypto and into the dollar or U.S. Treasury bonds, which are seen as safer. This can cause a decrease in demand for cryptocurrencies.
What can we conclude from the 4-hour DXY chart?
The DXY experienced a rapid decrease this month, resulting in a drop from 108 to 103. However, after this sharp decline, the price has shown some bullish signs.
First: The price action kept making lower lows while the RSI made higher lows, resulting in a bullish divergence.
Second: The price action formed a specific pattern commonly found at the end of a downtrend. This pattern shows that the price is making small lower lows and lower highs, suggesting market exhaustion and a possible upside move toward the resistance zone.
The resistance zone aligns with the golden pocket Fibonacci level, indicating it could be a strong rejection level.
It is highly probable that the DXY could make an upside move to the resistance zone and golden pocket after breaking this bullish chart pattern.
What do we see on the daily timeframe?
The price dropped rapidly from 108 to the support zone at 103. After consolidating at this level, the price made a slightly lower low, while the RSI made a higher low. This indicates a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe. Before this drop, the DXY formed a typical bearish chart pattern known as Head and Shoulders (H&S). The neckline of the pattern coincides with the resistance zone on the 4-hour timeframe and the golden pocket. This suggests that it may be a difficult level to break.
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DXY: Starting a new Channel Up rally into Summer.The U.S. Dollar Index is near the oversold zone on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.232, MACD = -1.040, ADX = 33.922) having reached the bottom of the 9 month Channel Up. The 1D RSI was oversold last week but is seen rebounding. This is exactly the kind of formation we had on the previous bottom of the Channel Up as well as the December 28th 2023 low.. The selling sequences that led to those lose have been almost the same as today's (-6.32% and -5.74%). The last Channel Up bullish wave reached exactly the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Consequently we can go long here with an acceptable risk, targeting the top of the Channel Up (TP = 113.000).
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DXY SELL/SHORTBy utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels, historical patterns, , we can formulate a hypothesis that the market might follow a similar trajectory if bearish sentiment prevails.
Weekly CLS I KL FVG , Model 1 , LQ taken Hey Traders!!
Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions!
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion.
✅By understanding how CLS operates—its specific modes and timings—you gain a powerful edge with more precise entries and well-defined targets.
🛡️Follow me and take a closer look at Models 1 and 2.
These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions.
📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow.
Wishing you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader!
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
David Perk ⚔
