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U.S. Dollar Currency IndexU.S. Dollar Currency IndexU.S. Dollar Currency Index

U.S. Dollar Currency Index

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Dollar near term strenght coming, Weekly demand holdingThe DOllar has been in a decline over the last couple of months, We can see from tracking how the COT INDEX COT Index in Forex for 6 months and 36 months The 6-month and 36-month time frames typically refer to the historical analysis of COT data for specific currency pairs, providing insights into: 6-month COT Index: This reflects the trading positions over the past 6 months. It shows the trends in how market participants (e.g., hedge funds or commercial traders) have been positioned recently. Traders typically use this shorter time frame to gauge recent trends and near-term sentiment. A higher COT Index value indicates that speculators have a larger net long position, suggesting potential bullish sentiment, and vice versa for a lower COT Index. 36-month COT Index: This reflects the trading positions over the past 3 years. It provides a longer-term view of trader positioning, helping to identify historical trends and market cycles. A higher 36-month COT Index suggests persistent bullish positioning over the longer term, we can see the Dollar has been bought up at WEEKLY Demand, we will start looking for a shift to buy the Dollar on a daily chart.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mike_SnD
Mid-Week Analysis March 27-28: USD FX Majors Stock Indices, ...In this video, we look back on the forecasts from this past weekend, and check how they are playing out to this point in the week. USD Index, S&P500, Nasdaq ,Dow Jones, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, JPY. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
TVC:DXY
by RT_Money
2
DXY:Pay attention to the retest of the daily chart supportOn Tuesday, the price of the US Dollar Index generally declined. The intraday price peaked at 104.444, bottomed out at 103.917, and closed at 104.189. From the perspective of the daily chart, the level of 103.80 below serves as a crucial watershed for the wave trend. As long as the price remains above this level, a short-term bullish position is advisable for the time being. Meanwhile, the short-term support of the four-hour chart is in the 104.10 area. Currently, the price in the short term is fluctuating and is likely to continue to retest the support area of the daily chart. Therefore, in trading operations, focus on the support of the daily chart and anticipate an upward movement. Trading strategy: buy@103.70-103.80 TP:104.50-105.00 Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
TVC:DXYLong
by LeoBlackwood
Dollar Caught in Mixed SignalsThe US dollar is trading with relative stability this Wednesday, consolidating within a tight range as markets carefully analyze a series of recent economic data that suggest mixed signals about the strength of the world’s largest economy. The latest durable goods orders report for February surprised to the upside, showing an increase of 0.9%, compared to expectations of a 1% decline. Although lower than the robust 3.3% growth recorded in January, this data still reflects some resilience in key sectors such as transportation, machinery, and electrical equipment, which could partially ease concerns over an imminent economic slowdown. However, the optimism sparked by this figure is counterbalanced by a 1.5% drop in non-defense capital goods orders. This indicator, crucial for measuring business confidence and future investment, posted its first contraction in four months, declining 0.3% excluding aircraft. This setback appears to reveal growing caution among US companies, likely driven by uncertainty surrounding trade and tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence showed concerning signs in March. The overall index plummeted to 92.9, reaching its lowest level since 2022. Particularly alarming was the decline in the expectations index, which fell to 65.2, hitting a 12-year low. This drop reflects growing pessimism among American households regarding the economic outlook, worsened by negative perceptions of trade policies and their potential impact on inflation and employment. Inflation, and its anticipated evolution in the coming months, has become a key factor influencing market sentiment toward the dollar. Markets are especially focused on the release of the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflationary pressures. Should this figure show a significant increase, the Fed may be prompted to maintain a cautious and restrictive stance, thereby supporting the dollar. Conversely, a more moderate reading could lead the central bank to consider less aggressive adjustments, putting downward pressure on the US currency. In conclusion, as markets continue to digest these contradictory signals, the dollar appears likely to remain within a tight range in the short term. Uncertainty over trade policy, combined with mixed signs of economic strength, create a challenging operational environment. As such, caution prevails among investors and businesses, and the market remains on alert, aware that in the current climate, more than ever, clarity on economic and trade policy will be crucial to shaping the near-term future of the US dollar. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
Skeptic | DXY Showdown: Battle at 104.403Welcome back, guys! 👋I'm Skeptic Today, we're diving deep into the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), analyzing key levels and potential triggers. 🔍 Recap & Current Structure: As highlighted in our previous analysis , the major daily support (0.618 Fib) held strong at 103.303 , with price reacting precisely at this level. Currently, the DXY is testing a critical 4H resistance at 104.403 , which aligns with: A 4H consolidation range breakout zone A potential fakeout trap if price fails to sustain momentum The RSI (65.92) suggests building bullish momentum, but confirmation requires a clean break above 104.403. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup): Trigger: Break & close above 104.403 Confirmation: RSI holding above 65.92 Invalidation: Rejection + close back below 104.000 📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup): Trigger: Rejection at 104.403 + drop below 103.936 Confirmation: RSI reversal below 50 + bearish 4H candle close ⚠️ Key Notes: Fundamentals: Recent economic data favors dollar weakness—trade longs cautiously. Risk Management: Avoid overleveraging—wait for confirmed breaks. Stay sharp, and I’ll see you in the next analysis!
TVC:DXY
by SkepticWise
3
US Dollar's Worst Month Since 2023: DXY Faces Make-or-Break The greenback ends Q1 under pressure as soft inflation data, central bank divergence, and rising risk appetite weigh on the long-term outlook. 📉 A Fragile Finish to Q1 for the Dollar As we close out March and head into Q2, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is on track for its worst monthly performance since December 2023, erasing nearly half of its four-month rally. From a high of 110.00 in January 2025, the index has dropped to a recent low of 102.84, highlighting growing fragility in the dollar's long-term structure. The 7.2% slide since the start of the year reflects shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy, global interest rate convergence, and an increase in risk-on sentiment. With the DXY trading around 103.80 at the time of writing, bulls are struggling to reclaim momentum above the critical 104.00 barrier—a zone that has served as both support and resistance over the last eight months. 🔍 What's Driving the Weakness? Several fundamental forces have contributed to the dollar's Q1 decline: 📉 1. Cooling Inflation and Dovish Fed Signals February and March inflation prints came in softer than expected, leading markets to price in rate cuts sooner than the Fed's official guidance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious tone, but recent FOMC minutes and commentary from regional presidents suggest that a mid-year rate cut is increasingly likely—a development that undermines the dollar's yield advantage. 🌍 2. Global Central Bank Catch-Up The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) have recently resisted premature rate cut expectations, with hawkish commentary supporting their respective currencies. Meanwhile, Japan's move away from the ultra-loose monetary policy has lifted the yen, reducing the dollar's appeal as a carry-trade favourite. 💹 3. Equities, Risk-On Sentiment, and Gold Strength The S&P 500's record highs, strong demand for emerging markets, and gold's breakout to new all-time highs are clear indicators of a market rotating into risk assets and inflation hedges—further weakening safe-haven demand for the dollar. 📊 Technical Analysis: 104.00 Is the Line in the Sand The DXY's decline from 110.00 has retraced 50% of the four-month rally, with a firm low found at 102.84 earlier this month. While that level has provided near-term support, upside momentum remains capped below 104.00, a multi-month resistance level that must be reclaimed to reestablish bullish control. 🔺 Key Resistance Levels: 104.00 – Multi-month pivot zone, critical for trend shift 104.46 – Minor breakout level; confirmation of bullish continuation 105.96 – Short-term upside target if 104.46 is cleared 🔻 Key Support Zones: 103.58–103.25 – Minor support zone just below current levels 102.84 – March low; major near-term support 102.39–102.00 – Final downside target if 102.84 fails A break below 102.84 could accelerate bearish momentum into the 102.00 psychological level, especially if April's macro data confirms a slowing US economy or rising expectations for rate cuts. 🧭 April's Outlook: All Eyes on 104.00 The month of April will be pivotal in shaping the medium- to long-term outlook for the dollar. Key catalysts to watch include: March jobs report (NFP) – Signs of labour market cooling will intensify rate cut bets. Core PCE inflation – The Fed's preferred inflation gauge could confirm the disinflation trend. Geopolitical developments – Ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, Taiwan, and Ukraine could spark temporary safe-haven flows, but may not be enough to reverse the downtrend. Unless the DXY can close April above 104.46, it risks confirming a longer-term bearish reversal, which could open the door to sub-100 scenarios later in the year—especially if US macro data continues to soften and global rate differentials tighten further. 🔄 Scenarios to Watch: Bulls Need a Breakout 📈 Bullish Scenario: Price holds above 103.25, reclaims 104.00, and breaks 104.46 Momentum builds toward 105.96 April data surprises to the upside, delaying Fed cuts 📉 Bearish Scenario: Rejection at 104.00, breakdown below 102.84 Push into 102.00 support zone or lower April macro data reinforces dovish narrative, equity strength continues ⚠️ Final Thoughts: Cautious Tone, Technical Pressure The US dollar is ending Q1 under clear technical and fundamental pressure, with the DXY sitting at a critical inflection point. While the March low at 102.84 may hold in the short term, failure to break above 104.00–104.46 will leave the index vulnerable to further downside. With central bank divergence fading and risk appetite on the rise, the greenback's role as a defensive play is weakening. Unless April delivers a surprise upside catalyst, the path of least resistance appears to remain lower.
TVC:DXY
by Rotuma
DXY Flow conceptsThe **flow concept** in trading refers to the way markets move, either easily or with difficulty, in an upward or downward direction. It is a critical tool for traders to anticipate price movements and market behavior. Key Points: 1. Types of Flow: - Good Flow: Market moves easily in the expected direction, aligning with targets. - Poor Flow: Market struggles or moves contrary to expectations. 2. Indicators of Flow: - Range and direction of the bar. - Location of the close within the bar (near highs or lows suggests direction). - Degree of progress toward expected targets within an envelope system. 3. Using Flow in Trading: - Flow helps traders anticipate targets and identify when market behavior deviates from expectations. - It integrates multiple timeframes: higher time periods (HTP), lower time periods (LTP), and focus time periods (FTP). 4. Energy and Strength: - Flow derives from the energy between support and resistance levels (e.g., PL Dot, envelope confines). - Observing energy shifts at key levels helps predict future price movements. 5. Practical Applications: - Monitor Real-Time Flow: Recognize changes in direction or strength to adjust strategies. - Avoid Stops with Flow: Understanding flow can reduce reliance on stop-loss orders by enabling better decision-making. Conclusion: The flow concept emphasizes studying and monitoring market behavior dynamically, leveraging multi-timeframe analysis and energy zones. Mastery of flow allows traders to anticipate changes, make informed decisions, and reduce errors.
TVC:DXYShort
by JordanMT
DXY:Maintain a long position above the daily line supportOn Monday, the price of the US Dollar Index generally showed an upward trend. On that day, the price rose to a maximum of 104.422, dropped to a minimum of 103.814, and closed at 104.285. Looking back at the price performance on Monday, after the opening in the morning, the price initially came under pressure and declined in the short term. Subsequently, when the price reached the 103.80-90 area, it stopped falling and then started to rise, and finally closed with a large bullish candlestick on the daily chart. Currently, since the retracement and rally on Monday have provided confirmation, if the price remains above the 103.80 level in the subsequent period, a swing long position can be taken. In the short term, on the four-hour chart, attention should be temporarily paid to the support in the range of 104.00-104.10. After the price reaches this level in the future, further upward movement should be observed. In the short term, attention should be paid to the resistance in the area of 104.50-104.90 on the upside. Trading strategy: buy@104.00-104.10 TP:104.50-104.90 Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
TVC:DXYLong
by LeoBlackwood
US Dollar Weakens: Hedge Funds Shift to Short PositionsThe U.S. dollar, long considered a bastion of stability, is facing a significant shift in sentiment as hedge funds begin to adopt a bearish stance. This reversal, marking a notable change since the period following Donald Trump's election, is driven by a complex interplay of economic uncertainties and evolving market expectations. Factors Driving the Bearish Turn: • Shifting Federal Reserve Expectations: o A key driver of this bearish sentiment is the evolving outlook on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Initially, expectations of a strong dollar were bolstered by projections of limited Fed rate cuts. However, growing concerns about the fragility of the U.S. economy have led to increased expectations of multiple rate reductions. This shift in expectations weakens the dollar's appeal. • Economic Uncertainty and Trade Policies: o Concerns surrounding potential trade wars and the impact of certain economic policies are also weighing on the dollar. Uncertainty about future trade relations and their potential impact on U.S. economic growth is creating apprehension among hedge fund managers. o The impacts of possible public sector job cuts, and restrictive immigration policies, are also adding to the economic uncertainty. • Data from the CFTC: o Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals a clear trend. Speculative traders have moved from holding significant long-dollar positions to net short positions, indicating a substantial shift in market sentiment. • Global Economic Factors: o The relative strength of other global economies also plays a role. If other global economies are showing signs of stronger growth, that can also put downward pressure on the dollar. Implications of a Weaker Dollar: • Impact on Global Trade: o A weaker dollar can have significant implications for global trade, potentially making U.S. exports more competitive while increasing the cost of imports. • Inflationary Pressures: o A depreciating dollar can also contribute to inflationary pressures within the U.S. as import prices rise. • Investment Flows: o Changes in the dollar's value can influence international investment flows, as investors adjust their portfolios in response to currency fluctuations. Market Analysis: • Analysts are closely monitoring these developments, with some revising their dollar forecasts downward. The shift in hedge fund positioning underscores the growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook. • It is important to understand that the currency markets are very dynamic, and things can change rapidly. • The effects of political events, and world wide economic changes can have very large effects on the dollar. In essence, the shift in hedge fund sentiment reflects a growing recognition of the complex economic challenges facing the U.S. As these challenges unfold, the dollar's trajectory will remain a key focus for investors and policymakers alike.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
USD INDEXPrice is currently in wave 4 of C, with the correction likely ending around 101.500. Expect a rebound towards 105.20 before the downtrend continues. From there, we should see a resumption of the bearish momentum, pushing price towards the 101.500 level. Keep an eye on price action around 101.500 for confirmation of the Wave 5 completion. A strong bullish candle or a break above a minor resistance level in that area would signal a good entry point for a long position, targeting 105.20. However, be prepared to cut losses if the level fails to hold and price breaks lower. Conservative traders might wait for a confirmed rejection at 105.20 before entering short positions, aiming for the 98.00 target. Trade safe and manage your risk.
TVC:DXYLong
by Ibrahim1984
DXY March 23 Analysis and 24 IdeaDXY March 24 Price parent bias is bear Price is Discount M/W/D Previous session Premium and discount on the daily range No News March 23 Analysis I suspect that Price is gravitating to the buy stop target noted and the daily SIBI is search of higher prices at the beginning of the week, and celebrate Price did. Wicking to the March 6 buy stop. On the daily range Price is coming up to the 50 level. Price in a Premium took session buy stops, lowered to equal sell stops in a discount in London, then rallied to March 6 buy stops and up into the Daily BISI. Great delivery. Premium to discount to Premium. Expanded higher creating equal highs in Asia, to retrace, consolidate in London, to reverse in NY and close consolidating in a premium. *Note the event horizon is to the sell side March 24 Idea I would like to see Price come down in Asia and London to the 50 maybe take the equal sell stops at the .618 and could rally for higher prices in NY. I consider that until Asia delivers all above could change. I also consider that no news today or tomorrow could create high resistance days, stay sharp.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena