DXYDXY has given us a drop last week, lets wait for a correction to trade another drop.
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DXY trade ideas
USD Working Strongest Month Since April 2022After a decisive sell-off ran for most of the first-half of the year, USD bulls have stepped up in July and DXY is currently up 3.3% for the month.
That's the strongest monthly outing in the currency since April of 2022- and that's just after the Fed had started their rate hike campaign that year. It led into a massive rally that ran through September as the USD set fresh 20-year highs.
The question now is one of continuation, and motive seems to be fairly clear. I've outlined the technical backdrop as this shift has taken place over the past month, as the Dollar held a higher-low last week and that drove into a higher-high this week.
There's likely some short squeezing contributing to the rally but with U.S. data remaining strong, and inflation on the way back up, the rate cuts that markets had priced-in back in March and April for 2025 are now in question.
This brings attention to the next major item - with Non-farm Payrolls tomorrow morning.
On a short-term basis the USD move has already started to show overbought conditions on the four-hour chart, and daily RSI is getting close to the 70-level. So perhaps ideal would be a soft report tomorrow at which point a pullback could show. It's from that that we can see whether bulls will come in to defend higher-lows, and there's now support potential at prior resistance of 99.40 in DXY.
If we do see a strong report, the 100 level is the spot for bulls to reckon with and at that point, we may be looking at an overbought RSI scenario on the daily chart - which doesn't necessarily preclude bullish continuation although it will make it more difficult to chase topside breakouts. - js
Dollar Index (DXY): Possible Reversal | Inverse Head & ShouldersThe dollar has had a tough year, but that might be changing.
I’ve spotted a well-known reversal pattern: an Inverse Head & Shoulders.
This pattern features three dips, with the middle one—the "head"—being the deepest.
Now, the price has rebounded from the Right Shoulder and is heading higher.
It’s approaching the Neckline at $98.7, which needs to be broken for a bullish confirmation.
If that happens, the projected target is around $101.6, based on the depth of the pattern.
This lines up closely with the previous high of $102 from May. The target area is highlighted in the blue box.
However, if the price falls below the Right Shoulder’s low at $97.1, the pattern would be invalidated.
Anyone else see this pattern?
Could this be the bottom for the dollar?
Dollar Index Update – Holding Gains After NFP Data📈 DXY Outlook – Ready for the Next Leg Up?
Last Friday, as NFP data hit the market, I published an analysis highlighting this exact move—and so far, price has respected the roadmap perfectly.
Now, with momentum building and structure aligning, the Dollar Index looks poised to continue its bullish run—first toward the 101 zone and potentially higher toward 102.
But here’s the key point for swing traders and risk-conscious setups:
🔍 If we’re aiming for higher targets with minimal drawdown, tonight’s daily candle close will be crucial.
A bullish close above yesterday’s high would not only confirm strength, but significantly reduce entry risk for long positions.
So, whether you’re already in the trade or waiting for confirmation, patience tonight could pay off.
Let’s see if the bulls can seal the deal with a strong daily close.
🔁 This analysis will be updated whenever necessary.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just my personal opinion.
DXY In A Supply ZonePrice is currently reacting to an H1 supply zone. If it holds, pressure will continue to the downside. Obvious target is in daily demand.
DXYBack to the initial direction which is bullish momentum acoording to cot report. And I'm expectiong more continuation till maket close of before
USDX-SELL strategy 6 horuly chart Reg.ChannelThe index has moved up sharply, and as always, when over speeding, one may get a speeding ticket. :) anyway, on a serious note, we are quite overbought and above the Reg. Channel a bit. This means over time we may see a pullback, which can bring us to lower 99.00s.
Strategy SELL @ 100.00-100.40 and take profit near 99.07 for now.
DXY SHORT Well, the dollar index is in a descending channel. The expectation is that the price will fall from the channel ceiling to the channel floor.
This post will be updated.,
DXY Locked & Loaded: Robber's Gameplan for Profit Pullout💸💼 "DXY Market Heist Blueprint – The Thief's Bullish Escape Plan" 💼💸
Rob the Market, Not the Rules – Trade Smart, Trade Sharp, Trade Thief Style™
🌍 Hey Money Makers, Risk Takers & Market Robbers!
Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba! 🙌
Let’s break into the DXY vault and swipe those profits with precision. 💼💸
🧠💡This Thief Trading Style™ Master Plan is a high-stakes operation backed by technical setups, macro-fundamentals, and robbery-level insights. Follow the blueprint laid out on the chart. Our target? The High-Risk Yellow ATR Zone – where the real treasure is buried.
💼 ENTRY: "The Vault Is Open – Grab the Bullish Bags!"
Enter long as price approaches key pullback levels within a 15–30 min timeframe. Use the most recent candle wick’s swing low/high for sniper-style DCA entries.
🔑 Layer multiple limit orders like a thief stacking getaway bags (aka the DCA / Layering Method). Be patient and precise.
🛑 STOP LOSS: "Don’t Get Caught by the Market Police"
📍 Place SL just below the nearest 4H swing low (example: 97.300) depending on your strategy (scalping/swing).
⚖️ Your SL should reflect your risk appetite, lot size, and how many limit orders you’re running. Thieves don’t risk it all on one job. 🎭
🎯 TARGET: 101.800 (or Escape Before the Sirens)
Once the target zone nears, decide whether to collect full loot or exit before resistance hits. We trade smart, not greedy. 🧠💰
📈 Why This Heist Makes Sense: Market Conditions Breakdown
Bullish momentum supported by macro drivers and intermarket forces
COT report and sentiment leaning in favor of USD
Dollar Index structure showing signs of reversal + trend confirmation
Consolidation trap zones hinting at institutional accumulation
💡 This is not just a blind entry—it's a well-researched and time-tested plan. Check the chart details and refer to:
🔗 Fundamentals | COT Reports | Sentiment Score | Quantitative Outlook
🚨 NEWS & POSITION MANAGEMENT ALERT
Before jumping in, beware of high-impact news!
🗞️ To keep your trades safe and stress-free:
Avoid opening new positions during major news releases
Use trailing SLs to protect gains
Monitor volatility triggers (economic calendar is your best friend!)
🏴☠️💥 BOOST THE ROBBERY – Hit That Like/Boost Button
The more you boost, the stronger the heist crew becomes! 💪🚀
Help fellow traders steal opportunities with the Thief Trading Style™ – calculated, bold, and sharp.
🔥 Let's continue to outsmart the markets and make each trade count. Stay tuned for the next heist update – fresh trades, deeper insights, and bigger bags. 🤑💼
🔔 Disclaimer: This plan is not financial advice. Use it for educational and entertainment purposes. Always conduct your own analysis and manage risk accordingly.
📌 Markets shift quickly. Stay adaptable, informed, and always ready to pivot.
USD, DXY rejected at 100 but can bulls hold a higher-low?You find out the true test of a trend during the counter-trend episodes. Do buyers show up to hold higher-lows? Or does fear and skepticism cause them to take a back seat as sellers continue to dominate. If that's the case, then supports are vulnerable and there could be motive for continued selling. But, if bulls do stand up and hold a higher-low, that can be a sign that the market is still harboring longer-term oversold dynamics after a heavy one-sided move drove for so long.
That's where we're at with the US Dollar.
The USD finished July as its strongest month in more than three years. And it followed that up with its largest sell-off in three months as multiple factors hit the greenback on Friday. There was the NFP report, with massive revision to the headline number for the prior two months. And then Trump fired the head of the BLS and then towards the end of the session, the resignation of a Fed governor which will allow Trump to appoint a more-dovish FOMC member about six months earlier than expected.
Collectively this served to push up rate cut expectations in September and that's what hit the USD so hard. And at this point markets are widely-expecting that next cut in September to a current 87.8% probability as of right now per CME Fedwatch.
But will these dynamics lead to a more dovish Fed? Powell didn't sound as though he was ready to cut rates on Wednesday and he said it was the unemployment rate that the Fed will be watching - and that came in right at the expected 4.2%, which is very close to the 'full employment' level. There's also the Core PCE report from Thursday, which showed inflation is still moving higher - even without a Fed rate cut, and that follows a similar reading of CPI from earlier in the month.
The big question here is whether that can all allow for the USD to sink down to fresh lows and from the daily chart, there's a big spot of support potential around the April and early-June swing lows, spanning from 97.60-97.92. - js
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.64
1st Support: 97.14
1st Resistance: 100.09
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the retail trader outlookWe see that the wedge pattern has been completed and the bullish market is strong as the candles a huge, this is a high risk low reward trade as it clear and obvious to the vest public that the markets wants to rally. the role of the dollar price plays a vital role in this not happening as we see that the dollar has formed the yearly low as is starting to move up in an increasingly high speed suggesting that Gold is more likely to be affected by the sudden Rally in the dollar currency and the opposite is true given a drop in dollar.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) !!U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Long-Term Channel Support Held
The chart shows DXY moving within a rising parallel channel since around 2008.
Recent price action bounced right from the lower trendline (~98 zone), indicating strong structural support.
Bearish Pressure
DXY dropped below 100, currently around 98.72, down 1.32% this month.
Trading below the 200-month EMA, which suggests weakening long-term strength.
Bearish candlesticks forming near the lower channel indicate an increased risk of a breakdown if support fails.
Ichimoku Cloud Signal
Price below the Kumo (cloud) = bearish territory.
Cloud turning thin ahead — signaling potential indecision or transition.
What This Means for Markets
If the DXY breaks below this channel, it could trigger a broader USD sell-off, potentially bullish for cryptocurrencies, gold, and emerging markets.
If support holds, expect a rebound toward the 104–106 zone, especially if macro sentiment favors the dollar.
Stay updated and manage your risk accordingly.
DYOR | NFA
dxy (long)
we have an inverse head & shoulder and we have currently retested the neckline to push futher to the upside.
Dollar Falls as Traders Price In Two 2025 Rate Cuts on Weak JobsDollar Falls as Traders Price In Two 2025 Rate Cuts on Weak Jobs Data
Introduction
In a significant turn of events for the global currency markets, the U.S. dollar has taken a sharp tumble as traders brace for a more dovish Federal Reserve. A weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report for July 2025 has prompted market participants to price in two interest-rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year. This shift in monetary policy expectations comes during a time of heightened global uncertainty, much of it triggered by President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies, which have already disrupted the $7.5 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a key gauge of the dollar’s strength against major currencies, plunged as much as 1%—marking its worst single-day performance since April 21, 2025. The greenback’s decline was mirrored by strong gains in rival currencies, with the Japanese yen appreciating 2.2% and the euro climbing more than 1% against the dollar.
This article delves into the recent developments surrounding the U.S. dollar, the implications of weak jobs data, the Federal Reserve’s likely response, and how Trump’s trade policies are shaping the broader economic landscape.
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Weak Jobs Data Sparks Policy Shift
The July 2025 employment report came in well below expectations. Non-farm payrolls growth fell short, and revisions for May and June showed fewer jobs were added than previously reported. These figures suggest that the U.S. labor market is cooling more rapidly than anticipated, raising concerns about the sustainability of the post-pandemic economic recovery.
According to Helen Given, a foreign exchange trader at Monex Inc., “It’s now clear that the U.S. labor market is cooling fairly sharply. There’s a good chance that Trump’s crusade against Chair Powell ratchets up further in the coming days, and there could be further losses for the dollar to come as a result.”
The disappointing employment data has led traders to adjust their expectations for U.S. monetary policy. Futures markets are now pricing in two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of 2025, a stark reversal from the earlier outlook that suggested the Fed would remain on hold or even consider tightening if inflation remained sticky.
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The Federal Reserve’s Dilemma
The Federal Reserve now finds itself in a precarious position. On one hand, inflation has moderated in recent months, giving the central bank more room to maneuver. On the other hand, a weakening labor market could indicate a broader slowdown that might require immediate action to prevent a recession.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has come under increasing political pressure from President Trump, who has publicly criticized the Fed for keeping rates too high. Trump argues that rate cuts are necessary to support U.S. exporters and counteract the negative effects of his own tariffs and trade restrictions.
Historically, the Fed has maintained its independence from political influence, but in an election year, the pressure to act can become intense. If the Fed moves to cut rates, it will be seen as responding to both economic data and political dynamics—a delicate balancing act.
________________________________________
The Global Currency Market Reacts
The ripple effects of the dollar’s decline are being felt across the globe. The $7.5 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market, already under strain from geopolitical uncertainty and shifting central bank policies, has seen increased volatility in recent weeks.
The Japanese yen, often viewed as a safe-haven currency, surged 2.2% against the dollar following the release of the jobs data. Meanwhile, the euro gained over 1%, reflecting investor sentiment that the greenback’s era of dominance may be waning—at least for now.
Emerging market currencies also found some relief, as a weaker dollar generally eases pressure on countries with large dollar-denominated debts. However, the overall picture remains complex, as trade tensions and capital flow volatility continue to weigh on risk sentiment.
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Trump’s Trade Policies: A Double-Edged Sword
President Trump’s trade strategies have been a central feature of his second term in office. From imposing tariffs on Chinese imports to renegotiating trade agreements with the European Union and Canada, Trump has sought to reshape the global trading system in favor of American manufacturers.
Yet these policies have produced mixed results. While some sectors have benefited from protectionist measures, others—particularly those reliant on global supply chains—have suffered from rising costs and retaliatory tariffs. The uncertainty generated by these policies has also dampened business investment, slowed global trade, and disrupted financial markets.
“The dollar had tumbled this year as Trump’s aggressive trade policies rocked the $7.5 trillion-a-day currency market, weighing on global growth outlook,” Bloomberg reported.
Investors are increasingly concerned that continued trade friction, combined with growing political pressure on the Fed, could lead to policy missteps that undermine the U.S. economy and erode confidence in the dollar.
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Market Implications
The dollar’s recent decline has far-reaching implications for various asset classes:
1. Equities
U.S. equities have shown mixed reactions. While lower interest rates are typically supportive of stock prices, the underlying reason—economic weakness—has investors on edge. Sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary are expected to benefit from cheaper borrowing costs, but cyclical sectors may struggle if growth slows further.
2. Bonds
Treasury yields have fallen sharply as traders anticipate rate cuts. The 10-year yield dropped below 3.8%, its lowest level in months. The yield curve has also flattened, a potential warning sign of slowing economic momentum.
3. Commodities
A weaker dollar typically supports commodity prices, as most are priced in dollars. Gold, oil, and industrial metals all saw gains in the wake of the jobs report. However, demand-side concerns stemming from a global slowdown could limit the upside.
4. Emerging Markets
For emerging markets, a softer dollar offers both relief and risk. On the positive side, it reduces debt servicing costs and can attract capital flows. On the negative side, if the dollar’s weakness reflects a broader global slowdown, risk appetite could remain subdued.
________________________________________
Looking Ahead: What to Watch
As markets digest the latest economic data and policy signals, several key developments will be closely monitored:
1. Upcoming Fed Meetings
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet again in September. Markets will be keenly watching for any changes in tone or new forward guidance. A rate cut in September now appears increasingly likely, especially if subsequent data confirms a labor market slowdown.
2. Inflation Trends
While inflation has moderated, it remains a key concern for policymakers. If inflation rebounds unexpectedly, it could complicate the Fed’s ability to cut rates without stoking price pressures.
3. Geopolitical Risks
Trade tensions, particularly with China and the EU, remain unresolved. Any escalation could further destabilize markets and weigh on the dollar. Additionally, developments in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia could add to the uncertainty.
4. U.S. Presidential Politics
With the 2026 presidential election campaign already underway, Trump’s rhetoric and policy decisions will continue to influence market sentiment. His ongoing criticism of the Fed could erode confidence in U.S. institutions, particularly if it leads to perceived politicization of monetary policy.
________________________________________
Conclusion
The sharp fall in the U.S. dollar following weak July jobs data marks a pivotal moment in 2025’s economic narrative. With traders now pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end, the stakes have never been higher for policymakers, investors, and political leaders.
While a softer dollar can provide some temporary relief to exporters and boost inflation expectations, it also reflects deeper concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy and the unintended consequences of aggressive trade policies. President Trump’s confrontational approach to global trade, combined with mounting pressure on the Fed, is creating a complex and potentially volatile environment for markets.
As the year progresses, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s response, the resilience of the U.S. labor market, and the evolving political landscape. In a world where headlines can move markets in seconds, clarity, stability, and sound policy have never been more critical.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY), Position Trade Bullish Point of ViewLooking at the DOLLAR INDEX (DXY), DXY might turn bullish after tapping the potential inversion fair value gap around 100.182 suggesting a macro continuation of the long-term uptrend, with price likely to retest the 103.197 IFVG (inversion fair value gap) area, break above 114.778 liquidity, and continue higher toward the 132.345 FVG from 1st of July 1985.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY), Position Trade Bearish Point of ViewLooking at the DOLLAR INDEX (DXY), DXY might turn bearish after tapping the FVG above, potentially falling below the long-term ascending channel on the quarterly timeframe, suggesting a macro trend reversal, with price likely to break and retest 98.393 before continuing down toward the 84.464 FVG area.
US Dollar Bottom: Don’t Rush InSince the beginning of the year, the US dollar (DXY) has been the weakest currency in the floating exchange market (FX). However, since mid-July, a technical rebound has begun, fueled by several fundamental factors, notably the Federal Reserve’s monetary hawkishness. But can this upward move be interpreted as a true annual bottom?
Or is it merely a temporary short squeeze before a return to the lows? As high finance fundamentals swing back and forth, let’s assess the technical outlook for the US dollar (DXY).
1) Rate cut expected on Wednesday, September 17 – fundamentals in flux
The recent rebound in the US dollar coincides with the Federal Reserve's firm stance in refusing, for now, to resume rate cuts, which have been on hold since late 2024. In its latest monetary policy decision on July 30, the Fed reaffirmed that no tangible factors justify a rapid rate cut. Disinflation appears paused, and the institution prefers to wait until fall to assess the impact of tariff measures on the core PCE index (inflation excluding food and energy).
However, a major red flag emerged with the release of a very poor Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on August 1, reflecting a significant weakening in the labor market — a fundamental red alert!
The Fed has made it clear that the evolution of employment will be a key factor in its September decision. A weaker labor market could accelerate a monetary policy shift, renewing downward pressure on the US dollar.
2) Technical analysis of the US dollar (DXY): short-term rebound... but no medium-term trend reversal yet
From a technical standpoint, July's rebound is based on medium/long-term support levels that have so far acted as potential reversal bases. Can we legitimately speak of an annual low for the DXY? Has a major resistance been broken? The answer remains NO for now.
Weekly and monthly charts do not yet show a clear bullish reversal pattern. Some bullish divergence signals are emerging, notably on the RSI and LMACD, but they remain insufficient to confirm a lasting regime shift. A comparison with the 2018 and 2021 lows is telling: at those times, technical divergences were far more pronounced and bullish reversal structures had been confirmed.
The Elliott wave approach suggests a rebound is plausible within a corrective structure, but it does not yet guarantee a major trend reversal.
Data from the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders (COT) report and ETF flows tied to the dollar indicate some hesitation among institutional investors. While short positions have declined, there’s no clear evidence of large-scale buying.
In summary, the US dollar rebound since mid-July is real but fragile. As long as technical signals remain unclear and the labor market is flashing red, betting on a sustainable trend reversal remains risky. The annual low may be in place, but it is not yet confirmed from a technical, macroeconomic, or behavioral standpoint.
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DXY testing 100.00 resistanceThe US dollar index has risen to rest a key resistance area around the 100.00 level. Previously a key support and resistance zone, what happens here could determine the near-term technical direction for the US dollar.
Key support below this zone is at 98.95, marking a prior resistance. Given the short-term bullish price structure, I would expect this level to hold if the greenback were to ease back from here.
If the bullish momentum gathers pace, then 101.00 could be the next stop, followed by the recent high of 101.97.
From a macro point of view, resilient economic data and persistent core inflation concerns continue to support the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy approach. Today’s core PCE inflation reading came in slightly above forecast, at 2.8% year-over-year versus the expected 2.7%. In addition, jobless claims were better than anticipated, registering 218,000 compared to the 224,000 forecast. The Q2 Employment Cost Index also surprised to the upside, rising 0.9% quarter-on-quarter.
These figures follow yesterday’s stronger-than-expected GDP report and a solid ADP private payrolls release, further underscoring the strength of the U.S. economy.
Attention now turns to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could have a meaningful impact on rate expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the importance of the unemployment rate as a key metric, so any upside surprise could reinforce the Fed’s current position.
However, expectations are not very high for the non-farm payrolls report. Current forecasts suggest an increase of 106,000 jobs, with average weekly earnings rising 0.3% month-over-month, and the unemployment rate edging up to 4.2%. Yet, the scarcity of strong leading indicators this month adds a layer of uncertainty to the outlook.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
More Downside in the Greenback?The U.S. Dollar Index began 2025 with a dramatic slide. Now, after a period of consolidation, some traders may see further downside risk.
The first pattern on today’s chart is 99.443, the closing price for both a week and the entire month of May. DXY tested above the level between July 30 and August 1. It got rejected after the Labor Department revised payroll data lower. Has resistance been confirmed?
Second, the reversal occurred at the falling 100-day simple moving average. That may reflect bearishness over the longer term.
Third, stochastics have dropped from an overbought condition. Notice how those turns have occurred at other short-term peaks (marked in yellow).
Finally, traders may focus on news flow and catalysts with the White House expected to announce a replacement for Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler this week.
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DXY Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
DXY Just Broke Resistance – Is This the Start of a Dollar Rally?As per our analysis, DXY has successfully broken above the primary and secondary resistance line.
If the price manages to close above the marked resistance zone, we could see further upside momentum ahead.
DXYThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced on July 30, 2025, that it will maintain the federal funds rate at the current target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. This keeps the rate unchanged from previous meetings, continuing a "wait-and-see" approach amid mixed economic signals. The decision was supported by a 9-2 vote. The committee highlighted that recent data suggests economic activity growth has moderated in the first half of the year, with low unemployment and somewhat elevated inflation. The FOMC indicated it would carefully assess incoming data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks before making further adjustments. There is no rate cut at this meeting, but the Fed remains attentive to risks on both sides of its dual mandate of maximizing employment and achieving inflation around 2%.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for additional data, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic conditions, before changing policy. The economy showed stronger-than-expected second-quarter growth, but inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, contributing to the decision to hold rates steady. The committee's stance reflects caution despite pressure from political sources to cut rates.
The next FOMC meeting after this one will be in September 2025, and some economists predict a possible rate cut then depending on economic developments. Powell's press conference and the FOMC statement will be closely analyzed for any subtle shifts in policy tone or outlook.
In summary:
Federal funds rate maintained at 4.25% - 4.50%
Economic growth moderated but remains solid
Low unemployment, inflation somewhat elevated
Fed is data-dependent and cautious
No rate cut for now but possible in September
This is consistent with the ongoing approach since late 2024 of holding rates steady to balance inflation control and support for the labor market.
