The dollar fell to 109.500, trying to rise but it did not succeeThe dollar fell to 109.500, trying to rise but it did not succeed.
DXY trade ideas
change the trendIt is expected that the upward trend will end within the current resistance range and we will see the beginning of the correction.
Dollar Index (DXY): One More Clear Sign of Strength
Looks like Dollar Index is going to continue rising.
After an extended accumulation within a horizontal parallel channel,
the market violated its upper boundary on Friday.
Bullish trend will most likely continue.
Next goal - 110.5
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#DXY bullish dollarstrong economic activity and interest rate hike decision offers bullish momentum. Expected to move to the previous monthly highs!! BUY Low.
It will take some time .
DXY Trading JournalDXY Trading Journal
Jan 13
Price is in a Premium. Price is rebalancing a HTF M SIBI. Price ended Friday in consolidation in a Premium.
I would like to see come up take buy side liquidity out and then seek the 50% possibly rebalance Fridays FVG.
Could be a side ways day high resistance delivery after NFC and no red folder today.
DXY Long-Term Roadmap🧭 Roadmap Overview:
The DXY (US Dollar Index) moves in multi-decade cycles of bull and bear runs, reflecting changes in global economic conditions, monetary policies, and investor sentiment. In this chart, I’ve mapped out a long-term roadmap based on historical cycles that indicate where we are now and what to expect in the future.
I’ve also included how crypto adoption and stablecoins could potentially impact the DXY in the coming years.
🔎 Historical Cycles & Trends:
1️⃣ 1980-1985 Bull Run:
Driven by Federal Reserve rate hikes to combat inflation. The DXY reached a peak around 160, marking a major bull run.
2️⃣ 1985-1995 Bear Run:
The Plaza Accord in 1985 led to a devaluation of the dollar. The DXY dropped significantly during this period.
3️⃣ 1995-2002 Bull Run:
The dot-com boom and a period of economic expansion saw the DXY rally once again, reaching highs above 120.
4️⃣ 2002-2008 Bear Run:
Post-9/11 and the housing bubble crash triggered a major decline in the DXY.
5️⃣ 2008-2022 Bull Run:
The global financial crisis in 2008, combined with Fed tightening policies, triggered a long bull run in the DXY, peaking around 114 in 2022.
🧩 Where We Are Now:
Currently, the DXY is at a critical inflection point. Based on historical cycles:
The next bear run is expected to start soon, driven by a potential Fed pivot to lower interest rates and increasing global de-dollarization efforts.
After this bear run, I expect another multi-year bull run, starting around 2030, as the dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency.
⚡ How Crypto Could Impact the DXY:
🔵 1. Bitcoin as a Hedge Against USD:
Bitcoin is often seen as digital gold, offering investors a way to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. If Bitcoin adoption grows globally, it could reduce demand for USD and put downward pressure on the DXY.
🟢 2. Stablecoins Competing with USD:
Stablecoins like USDT, USDC, and DAI are pegged to the USD and used globally as digital dollars. However, if crypto-native stablecoins start to replace traditional banking systems, it could challenge the dominance of the USD in global trade.
For example:
USDT has a higher daily transaction volume than PayPal.
Crypto transactions across borders bypass traditional banking systems, reducing the need for USD reserves.
🟡 3. De-Dollarization & Crypto Adoption:
Countries like Russia, China, and BRICS nations are pushing to reduce reliance on the USD. If they adopt crypto or blockchain-based settlement systems, it could accelerate the decline of the DXY.
Example:
Russia is exploring digital currencies to settle international trade.
China’s digital yuan (CBDC) aims to reduce reliance on the USD for cross-border payments.
⚡ Key Risk:
The more crypto adoption grows, the more demand for traditional USD may decline, which could negatively impact the DXY in the long term.
🎯 Predicted Cycles:
📉 Bear Run: 2025-2030
📈 Bull Run: 2030-2040
💬 What are your thoughts on how crypto adoption could impact the future of the DXY? Let me know your thoughts below! 👇
#DXY #USD #Crypto #USDT #Stablecoins #Bitcoin #DeDollarization #Forex #Trading #MacroAnalysis #BTC
Bullish Bias Until Opposing DisplacementClassic SMC concept:
Price at Premium area, in order to gather liquidity it has to go to Discount area.
Lets break down it into available Week unfolding Scenario:
Scenario A:
The easiest target for Price is to take PWH (Premium) and then we may face the some sort of displacement it could create Daily/4h -OB then we may trade up to Thursday for having Bearish Bias (short term) by keeping in mind Bullish Bias intact in mind (long term).
Scenario B:
Price may drop into FVG:BISI(4h) and may turn Bullish and then we may notice FVG creation on Monday and may ride Tuesday retracement to frame Bullish trade up to Thursday/Friday.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Update: Peaking Phase in FocusIn our previous analysis, we projected a bullish trend for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), forecasting its strength to persist until it reached a critical "Area of Interest" (highlighted in pink on the chart). This area corresponds to a significant resistance zone near the 109.6–110.0 level, as marked on the chart.
Current Observations:
- The DXY has now entered the projected "peaking phase," as shown by its approach to the identified resistance zone.
- Momentum indicators, such as the RSI, suggest overbought conditions near this level, reinforcing the likelihood of a reversal.
- The chart highlights a series of ascending waves culminating in the current peak, aligning with the earlier analysis of the bullish phase ending by early 2025.
What’s Next?
- A bearish reversal is anticipated, with the DXY likely retracing to lower support levels. Key targets for the downturn are:
- The 100.00 psychological level, which also aligns with a structural support zone.
- The 97.8 level, representing a major support from previous price action.
- The longer-term downtrend trendline remains intact, suggesting the DXY could experience sustained weakness throughout 2025.
Implications for Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies:
As noted earlier, a weakening U.S. dollar often correlates with upward momentum in dollar-denominated assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. If the DXY confirms its reversal, we could see a bullish breakout in Bitcoin beginning around Q1–Q2 2025, as the market prices in dollar devaluation.
Conclusion:
Investors should monitor the DXY's behavior closely within the "Area of Interest." Confirmation of a bearish reversal could trigger significant market shifts across various asset classes. Stay vigilant for further updates as the DXY's trajectory unfolds.
DXY Is Going Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 109.638.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 111.019 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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DXY Strongly Bullish:DXY Strongly Bullish
The DXY (US Dollar Index) is currently showing a strong bullish momentum. I do not expect the price to retrace back into the monthly breakout gap unless the extreme high is taken out first. With the ongoing strength in the US Dollar, the market is likely to continue pushing higher, especially if the price holds above key support levels. The bullish trend is intact, and any pullbacks might be shallow before the next leg up. Traders should remain focused on higher targets, monitoring for any significant shifts in market structure that could signal a reversal. The key point is that the extreme high must be taken out for the continuation of this strong bullish trend.
Bullish bias on DXY THIS WEEKLooking at how DXY has been trading
1. The weekly and daily looks bullish
2. Seasonal tendacies suggests bullish momentum
3. It's PPI and CPI week . Volatility will kick in on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some retail sales m/m and unemployment claims might continue the up move
Talking to myself; feel free to peep in... DXYHello Traders!
Spend some time with the charts this Sunday without any thought of any kind of transaction . @I_Am_ICT
1h charts for the price run from late September 2024 :-
Happy Sunday!
How strong is the US economy in the 1st Q...?
-There is no doubt that the dollar is going strong with previous weeks data already shaping the 1st Q of 25.
-In the coming week we have inflation numbers together with ppi to give us a further outlook of the economy.
-We still anticipate a very strong 1st Q ending but there is more data and geopolitics ahead to give us a clear validation.
Dollar index is in upchannelDollar index is in upchannel. After false breakdown, price came back to channel.
DXY BIASAs we wait for the market to open it is important for you to know the overall direction of the market in general and that is where I come in as Dr. Trade, my job is to help you see what you are not seeing and I will do my best to make sure I provide you with the best market structure always, the target area for DXY is the POI above before I will be looking for short entries, so whatever trading strategy you use you can do well to use this as a blueprint when making your analysis and use correlation analysis too to make sure you are on the right path. stay tuned for more updates.
DAILY OUTLOOK ON DXYA bullish sentiment on dollar index while other pairs with the dollar will be bearish
Dollar Index Heading Into Key Area Of ResistanceThe Dollar has been exploding higher.
The index is heading into key areas of resistance, revisiting prices we haven't seen since 2022.
Watching this area to see how the FX markets react to the dollar either trying to push higher or possibly pulling back from key areas above.
DXY is in an uptrend positionDXY is an uptrend position. But I think the trend is in the last movements and needs more attention
Long - If price pullbacks and form CLS on this levelLong - If price pullbacks and form CLS on this level
you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion.
What is CLS?
This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets.
CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing.
Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
Dave FX Hunter ⚔
EUR/USD Short: Bearish Trend with DXY SupportShort EUR/USD at the current market price (CMP). EUR/USD remains in a bearish trend, likely heading for the next leg of the CD pattern. Meanwhile, the DXY is bullish, having retraced from the golden Fibonacci ratio and now appearing poised to continue its next bullish leg.
