EURUSD NY Session ShortsAfter asian's session accumulation, we had manipulation during london getting price to the equilibrium of the previous price range, now expecting distribution during NY to the downside.
DXY trade ideas
US DOLLAR is in HEAVEN mode. Looks Bullish still, but maybe...noHi everyone,
I set a sell limit order right where you can see it which means price would need to go fill my price for this order to become active.
DXY Index at Critical Resistance: Possible Clues for USD Pairs👀👉 The US Dollar Index (DXY) is nearing a key resistance zone, repeatedly tested on both the monthly and weekly timeframes, which often signals a potential market reaction or rejection. While the US dollar has maintained a strong bullish trend, these factors suggest a possible near-term reversal, offering potential opportunities in both correlated and inversely correlated currency pairs. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
📊✅
DXY - go downI think DXY will make one last spike up and then it's in for a nice drop. This would also correspond with crypto, where I'm expecting one last surge and then an all-time high.
Levels discussed on 22nd October Livestream22nd October
DXY: retracing, testing 103.80 support level, needs to stay above 103.60, to continue uptrend to 104.20.
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6015 SL 20 TP 40
AUDUSD: Stays below 0.67, Sell 0.6680 SL 20 TP 60
GBPUSD: Retracing, Look to test and reject trendline, Sell 1.3025 SL 20 TP 50
EURUSD: Look for reaction at 1.0780 support level or 1.0870 resistance level
USDJPY: Buy 151.15 SL 40 TP 65
USDCHF: Sell 0.8630 SL 10 TP 20
USDCAD: Buy 1.3860 SL 20 TP 60
Gold: Look for retracement possibly to 2715, buy on dip, for 2750 target
DXY: Market Is Looking Up! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 104.072
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
USD Index at 104 Resistance: Strategies for the Next MoveIn early October, I wrote that the multiple attempts to break below the support level given by the beginning of the year price were likely false breaks.
I suggested that the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) was primed for a reversal to the upside, which could potentially push the price toward the 104 resistance level.
As anticipated, the USD Index reversed and touched this key resistance.
Looking ahead, a correction from this point seems probable, with the 102.50 zone being a possible target in the coming days.
My strategy is to look for buying opportunities in EUR/USD and AUD/USD.
Dollar Index Consolidation: Will NFP Trigger an Upside Breakout?Since its recent touch on the support zone back in August, the U.S. Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) has entered a period of consolidation, characterized by multiple attempts to break through this critical support level.
Despite several instances where the price briefly dipped below the technical support zone, each time, the market witnessed a strong reversal, with bulls stepping in to defend the level successfully.
From my perspective, we are nearing a potential upside reversal, and the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday could serve as the catalyst for this move.
Currently, 102 is the key level to watch for confirmation of an upward breakout. Should the DXY break above this threshold, the next reasonable target would be around 104, marking a significant bullish shift in momentum.
US dollar rally faces hurdle as rates unwind stalls at key levelWhether it reflects US economic exceptionalism reducing the need for large-scale rate cuts from the Federal Reserve or improved prospects for Donald Trump winning the US Presidential election, or a combination of both, it’s obvious the US interest rate outlook is dictating direction across FX markets.
Higher US yields are sucking capital from other parts of the world, helping to fuel US dollar strength. With short-dated Treasury futures teetering above a key technical level, what happens next could be highly influential in determining the path for currencies and global borrowing costs as we move towards year-end.
USDX (DXY): Trend in 2H time frameThe previous analysis I did for USDX (DXY) happened exactly. Due to the sensitive conditions of this chart, we will have two trends that are carefully and accurately shown. Pay special attention to colored levels.
This SETUP is very sensitive.
Be careful
BEST
MT
Dollar Index - Busy Week Ahead. Expect VolatilityFor over 2 weeks, dollar index has been bullish, rallying up to the weekly objective of 103.546 - 104.080 fair value gap whilst also pinging off the daily bearish order block.
Bearishness this week down to the most local imbalance @ 103.444 - 103.345 (T1) and 102.993 - 103.031 (T2) would be considered a healthy retracement in the grand scheme of the bull run.
Have you not noticed that as the FED and other central banks lower their interest rates (effectively making their money to borrow cheaper) lead to a low resistance liquidity run.
Monday - 2 medium events
Tuesday - 4 medium, 1 High event
Wednesday - 3 Medium - 5 High event
Thursday - 4 Medium, 9 High event
Friday - 5 medium, 2 High events
Analysis of Dollar / DXYAs I mentioned in yesterday's analysis, there is a strong bullish momentum. Today, after the market opened, we saw that the price continued in that direction, following the upward trend. I took advantage of this momentum on other currency pairs and entered trades.
On the weekly time frame, we can see a lot of liquidity as well as movement within a consolidation zone. What I anticipate could happen tomorrow is a pullback due to news and a continuation of the momentum on the daily time frame.
Of course, we need to wait and be patient before entering a trade.
US DOLLAR still long, but if this High HOLDS....Hi everyone,
Today is Monday, and I expect a retest of the grey box aka. Last weeks peak high.
And then the pullback I have been waiting for or not haha.. ;(
#dxy #elliottwave short sell setup 21Oct24 wave cThis count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
DXYIm looking for second leg every thing is clear in picture.
today its my second position so I put less money into this trade.
DXY New Week Pair : DXY Index
Description :
Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame with the Breakout of Upper Trend Line
Fibonacci Level - 61.80%
Demand Zone
Completed " 1234 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
Levels discussed on Livestream 21 October21st October
DXY: needs to stay above 103.40 to continue uptrend to 103.90, beyond that 104.20
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6040 SL 30 TP 60
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6635 SL 20 TP 60
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2950 SL 30 TP 130
EURUSD: Look for reaction at 1.08-1.0780 support level
USDJPY: Buy 150.50 SL 30 TP 120 (Hesitation at 150.90-151)
USDCHF: Buy 0.8680 SL 35 TP 70
USDCAD: Could climb higher, looking for reaction around 1.39
Gold: Look for retracement to complete, then continue uptrend to 2750 (needs to stay above 2700)
DXY: Move Down Expected! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 103.586
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
How High Can the Dollar Go?The US dollar continues its impressive rally, marking three consecutive weeks of gains. This sustained strength is fueled by robust US economic data, persistent inflation, and a hawkish Federal Reserve. The dollar's rally reflects a significant shift in market sentiment. Initially triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions, the dollar's strength has been further reinforced by positive economic data. This combination of factors has fueled a powerful uptrend.
Economic Strength:
The US economy has consistently defied expectations of a slowdown, with strong labor market data and resilient consumer spending driving growth. Nonfarm payrolls continue to impress, with a significant number of jobs being added to the economy. The unemployment rate remains low, indicating a tight labor market. This, combined with robust consumer spending, paints a positive picture of the US economy, bolstering the dollar's appeal.
Inflation Persistence:
Despite some cooling, US inflation remains sticky, exceeding the Fed's 2% target. This persistent inflation reinforces the Fed's hawkish stance and diminishes the likelihood of significant rate cuts, further supporting the dollar's strength.
Technical Confirmation:
The dollar's uptrend is evident in the technicals. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has broken through key resistance levels, signaling further upside potential. The clean breakouts and strong momentum observed on various timeframes reinforce the bullish outlook for the dollar. Traders are closely watching for a sustained break above the 104 level, which could open the door for a more upside trajectory.
Upcoming News:
Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision: The BoC is widely expected to cut rates by 50 basis points, reflecting the slowdown in the Canadian economy and easing inflation. This potential rate cut could weigh on the Canadian dollar, particularly against the strong US dollar.
A dovish BoC could push USD/CAD above 1.3900, while a data-dependent approach with a pause in a rate cut trajectory might cause a bounce from this level and return back toward the trendline.
Eurozone and UK PMIs: The release of manufacturing and services PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK will provide further insights into the economic outlook for these regions. Weaker-than-expected PMI figures could weigh on the euro and the British pound, especially against the strong US dollar.
EUR/USD falling to 1.0800. Break below likely - Only a hawkish ECB or strong PMIs can save it.
Will 1.3000 hold? Traders are on edge as GBP/USD tests this key support. A break could trigger a wave of selling towards 1.2850.
Share your thoughts on the dollar's outlook in the comments below. Follow our profile for more fundamental and technical analysis updates.
This is a market analysis, not trading advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade responsibly and do your own research.
Waiting for #DXY correction H4. 21.10.2024Waiting for #DXY correction 📉
The dollar index has reached a strong daily sellers zone 103.63-104.23 and from this range I expect a downside exit. Special attention to the level 103.90 which is the border of a strong segment of accumulation in the past. It is logical to rebound above and enter the middle of the zone, and there we will consider reversals for the dollar and other currencies relative to it.
TVC:DXY
DXY D1 - Short Signal DXY D1
Cleaning up our dollar index chart here, we have previously been following the price level of 103.000, then 103.300 and now we are looking at this 104.000 whole number. This would be an area of resistance we would yet again expect a rejection. Of course, we have exploded through both previous zones, after some consolidation.
Without trying to catch a falling knife, so to speak… There certainly should be a correction due on the dollar index in the near future. The bullish D1 candle run has been insane, I’d like to see a correction to around 102.000 after testing 104.000 territory.
Barriers in the interim sit at 103.300 support and 103.000 support respectively, simple resistance to support and support to resistance as we break and move beyond certain trading zones.
Possible bullish move for DXYBased on ICT’s 2022 mentorship. We see a liquidity sweep and a break of structure that left behind imbalance (fair value gap) which also aligns with an orderblock in both the 30m and 1h timeframe.
Expecting price to fall to 103.119 to buy up to a micro swing high (103.371)
Market News Report - 20 October 2024While it was a mild week, the US dollar was again among the strongest currencies. Other ones include CAD and GBP, while NZD was among the weakest.
Let's dive into what we should expect for each major forex market in our latest fundamental report.
Market Overview
Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies.
US dollar (USD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
Despite a recent 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, the Fed may not need to cut rates as aggressively going forward. This is partly due to positive job numbers and earnings data that exceeded expectations.
Still, the central bank has signalled the potential for two 25 bps drops by the end of this year. Meanwhile, a 50 bps cut has pretty much been priced out, with STIR (short-term interest rate) markets seeing a 14% chance of a hold next month.
The Dixie continues to head north after weeks of ranging around the key support area at 100.157. We have spoken about a potential technically-driven retracement (despite the bearish fundamentals).
Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The latest strong NFP report has raised expectations for a 25 bps rate cut (instead of 50 bps), which is giving USD a boost in the near term. So, there is no extreme dovish pricing anymore.
While the bearish bias remains, the dollar may gain amid a broad pullback. This idea could prove even more relevant if Donald Trump wins the upcoming election.
Euro (EUR)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The STIR markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last week.
However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth).
Also, the past week saw weaker economic data across various European nations. Finally, short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 83% chance of a rate cut in December.
The euro has finally made its bearish intention known on the charts after spending weeks near the resistance at 1.12757. It is close to the key support at 1.07774.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. Furthermore, a threat of a trade tariff with Trump could be negative. Couple this with potential USD strength, and we have a clear bearish bias for the euro.
British pound (GBP)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its recent meeting. Still, the language indicates they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long.” Also, the central bank's higher-ups stressed "a gradual need" to cut rates.
As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Not long ago, Governor Bailey hinted that "aggressive rate cuts" were possible if inflation went lower.
We mentioned that the current retracement may be the start of a more serious bear move. So far, that's what the pound is experiencing. The nearest key support is at 1.26156, while the resistance target is 1.34343.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, weak CPI, labour, or GDP data should be expected to back up the bearish bias. However, the central bank hopes for lower service inflation, which may provide relief.
Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited at some point.
Japanese yen (JPY)
Short-term outlook: bullish.
The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year.
Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation (which has been on an upward trajectory). All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike.
The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive
Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle.
Australian dollar (AUD)
Short-term outlook: weak bullish.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 25 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement.
The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes. However, high iron prices have supported the former.
Finally, recent positive unemployment data gives a base case for a hold in the next RBA interest rate meeting.
After failing to break the 0.69426 resistance level several times, the Aussie has retraced noticeably from this area. Still, this market is bullish and far from the major support level at 0.63484.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
While the RBA hasn’t ruled anything out, the central bank isn’t explicitly suggesting rate hikes in the future.
It’s crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area.
However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, meaning it is exposed to the economies and geopolitics of other countries, especially China.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut next month of potentially the same magnitude.
Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias.
Due to the rate cut, the Kiwi has been on a downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63696. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
The central bank's latest dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) firmly puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' They also revised the OCR rates lower and signaled steady winnings in the inflation battle.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) recently dropped the interest rate to 4.25%, as anticipated by the markets for some time. Further cuts in the next few meetings are on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%.
Unemployment, weak economic growth, and mortgage stress are the key drivers for this dovishness.
Watch out for the new interest rate for CAD on Wednesday, where a 50 bps cut is predicted (77% chance).
While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is weaker on the charts. USD/CAD is making a steady uptick towards the key resistance at 1.39468, while the key support lies down at 1.33586.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. Governor Macklem himself stated a while ago that it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data will send CAD lower.
Also, mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it.
Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes.
Swiss franc (CHF)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters.
The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the September CPI came in weak at 0.8%, against the expected year-on-year 1.1%.
Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions, such as a worsening Middle East crisis.
USD/CHF has just broken out of the range (but only just) discussed in our last few reports. While remaining largely bearish, this market could return closer to the major support level at 0.83326 or climb its way to the higher major resistance level at 0.92244.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc.
The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. STIR markets are currently pricing a 23% chance of a 50 bps cut at the December meeting.
On the other hand, 'safe haven flows' and geopolitical risks can be positively supportive of the currency. As with other central banks, inflation is a crucial metric in the SNB's policy rates.
Conclusion
In summary:
This week's main high-impact news event is Wednesday's CAD interest rate decision.
Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain unchanged from the last few weeks.
As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
