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U.S. Dollar Currency Index

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DXY trade ideas

DXY - 4H Dollar Index more FallTechnical Perspective: TVC:DXY experienced two significant bullish legs in October and November on the daily time frame. However, the index started to fall sharply at the end of November, and this bearish momentum remains strong. On the 4H chart, DXY reached a key resistance zone and faced a significant rejection with notable bearish momentum, signaling the continuation of the downtrend. The current movement indicates a high likelihood of further declines, potentially to the bottom of the trading range. Many USD pairs are at critical support or resistance levels, and expected reactions from these zones could amplify downward pressure on the DXY, making it increasingly vulnerable to a substantial fall. Fundamental Perspective: In December 2024, the bearish sentiment surrounding the DXY is driven by key fundamental factors. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement another 25 basis point interest rate cut during its December 18 meeting, following earlier cuts in September and November. This dovish policy reflects the Fed’s commitment to supporting economic growth amidst a slightly cooling labor market and growing global uncertainties. Adding to the pressure, inflation data showed a 2.7% year-over-year increase in November, a slight uptick from 2.6% in October. Despite this, the Fed remains focused on easing monetary conditions to mitigate recession risks. Additionally, the recent U.S. presidential election has raised prospects of fiscal policy changes, including proposed tax cuts and potential tariff adjustments, which contribute to market uncertainty and weigh on the dollar. These fundamental shifts align with the bearish technical setup, suggesting that the DXY’s downtrend is likely to persist in the near term. Keep an eye on upcoming Fed announcements and inflation data for further confirmation of this trajectory.
TVC:DXYShort
by Sober_Trading
DXY - Long ContextMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level higher. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation. For me the best way to confirm higher timeframe context is structure. We can notice the red line - break of market structure (sign of strength) on key liquidity level, so there is a higher probability to see price higher at least on opposite level (marked higher). Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
TVC:DXYLong
by Maks_Klimenko
US CPI, WHERE WILL THE DOLLAR GO NEXTTrading Plan BASELINE C urrent Short-Term Sentiment Bias : - The market is currently focused on the upcoming US inflation report and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. - There is an 86% probability priced in for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed later this month⁵. - The dollar index is steady around 106.3, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of the inflation data. SURPRISE Outcome That Will Surprise the Markets Based on the Baseline: - Lower-than-expected inflation data : This would likely lead to USD selling as markets fully price in the anticipated rate cut. A good trade in this scenario would be GBP/USD longs, leveraging the pound's net long positions and the USD's net short positions. - Higher-than-expected inflation data : This would likely result in USD strength as investors adjust their rate cut expectations. A good trade in this scenario would be EUR/USD sells, based on stronger USD institutional positioning compared to the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE Does This Outcome Change the Larger Macro-Fundamental Bias? - Lower-than-expected inflation : Reinforces the expectation of continued easing by the Fed, aligning with the current macro-fundamental bias of a dovish Fed aiming to support economic growth and achieve its 2% inflation target. - Higher-than-expected inflation : Could shift the macro-fundamental bias towards a more cautious Fed, potentially delaying further rate cuts and maintaining a tighter monetary policy stance to combat persistent inflation⁷⁸. Notes - Macro-fundamental bias: The market expects the Fed to continue easing monetary policy to support economic growth and achieve its inflation target. This expectation is based on the Fed's dual mandate and recent economic indicators. - Short-term sentiment bias: The market is currently focused on the upcoming US inflation report and its potential impact on Fed policy, as well as interest rate decision.
TVC:DXY
by Midas_Macro
2
DXY 1W Forecast until March 2025Consolidation below 106 will last until October 2024. Breakout will happen in October peaking at 111-112 followed by a retest (mid November 2024 - January 2025). Further upward movement + correction will happen in January-March 2025 between the top of 113-114 and the bottom of 105-ish. Consecutive HH and HL will be followed by rapid increase in pace of changes: time will shrink and levels will expand. This will mark the start of hard times of Greatest Depression in March 2025 sending all markets down and making USD the king.
INDEX:DXY
by discarding
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance that has been identified as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 105.16 1st Support: 103.68 1st Resistance: 106.96 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
What about DXY?I haven't updated my DXY analysis for a while. So let's dust it off. The last update was in September when the atmosphere was changing in a way that we couldn't predict the US Election clearly and for a short period, the market thought the results wouldn't be as it is today. That was why I was a bit bearish on DXY. By getting closer to Election Day the clouds were going away and it got easier for the market to see the outcome. So, it strengthened the dollar while weakening the Gold as we expected the geopolitical tensions to cool off. What's next? For now, I see the 10-year bond yield can show a bit more weakness to come just below 3.99%. Then after that, we should update our analysis and see what comes next. But I think ~4% is low for now and after that, I like to see a jump back up. In this short-term correction DXY would follow the 10-year bond yield and most probably come into the range of 104 to 105. That's also can be a small driver for Gold to go higher a bit.
TVC:DXYShort
by SamanFx0
DXY: Watch the Key Level for the Next Bullish Leg HigherWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** DXY Analysis ! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
TVC:DXYLong
by OGT_Forex
DXY WEEKLY BIAS Hi there my followers I will not be here without you guys I will always try my best to serve you guys better, here is my bias for the weekly timeframe for DXY, you can use this to check out negatively correlated pairs like EURUSD, all you need to do is to follow up the callouts, pay close attention to details, never forget not to trade against the trend always observe proper risk management and do not overtrade or practice revenge trading. Stay tuned for more updates. I'm here to make your trading journey easier.
TVC:DXY
by Dr_Trade1
DXY index Hello traders, I would like to discuss the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index). The price has reached the monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG), and all the buy stops indicated on the chart are now in play. Additionally, the daily and 4-hour timeframes are showing signals that suggest a downward movement. After a pullback to the 107 zone, this could present a good opportunity for a short position. --- If you have any specific areas you’d like to focus on or further questions, feel free to let me know!
TVC:DXYShort
by somayehbasiri
Time for the Dollar to be realisticWith the news of Donald Trump being the united states new president we have seen nothing but euphoric bullish price action of the dollar. However, I believe that it is finally time for that to come to an end and for the dollar to continue in it's gradual and slow demise. I believe the dollar push to the upside was nothing but a retracement on the HTF and with the bitcoin becoming more of a powerhouse we will continue to see the dollar lose its value. This is supported through my analysis as we can see the dollar reacting from the weekly imbalance and creating LL and LH and Breaking structure to the downside. I believe that this will continue this week and be looking to sell after price takes the ASH and forms Wyckoff in my 3H supply. My only hesitation is that my other pairs that go against the dollar I am also predicting to sell, Although we haven't seen the usual correlation between the pairs they normally have i am still cautious but my analysis remains ever true. If the dollar decides to push further up it will simply be filling the remainder of the Imbalance in order to have a proper reaction from the weekly supply.
TVC:DXYShort
by JamelCapital