DXY TRADING SETUPDXY TRADING SETUP
Confirmation are in sight!
Get ready for a potential DROP!
Stay tuned for updates and confirmation signals!
DXY trade ideas
DXY, big picture analysisTechnical analysis for DXY.
Looking for bottom about 89.209 to complete wave B of zigzag (Y).
Would then look for wave C of (Y) to break above 121.020 resistance (bearish pitchfork never tagged median line).
USD Index: A Possible Reversal in Sight?Since early February, right after Trump’s inauguration, the USD Index (DXY) has been under pressure, falling sharply by over 10%.
However, after hitting the 98.00 level, things seem to have stabilized. We're seeing the early signs of a relief rally.
🔍 Technical Perspective:
- This week’s candlestick pattern suggests a bullish reversal.
- The dip on Wednesday was quickly bought, showing buyer interest.
- A minor correction occurred yesterday, but dips are being well supported.
- Currently, the DXY trades around 99.60, just under the psychological level of 100.
🎯 Outlook:
As long as 98 remains intact, the bias shifts towards a potential rebound.
First target: 102 – a logical resistance zone and prior support.
This is not yet a confirmed trend reversal, but the price action is shifting. The key now is how the market reacts around the 100 level. A break above could trigger further bullish momentum.
Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 101.39
1st Support: 99.91
1st Resistance: 102.58
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DXY is entering the Smart Money play — Are you ready Temporary selling pressure is unfolding, but a powerful bullish reversal zone is on the horizon! Don’t miss this key USD cycle setup
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently breaking down for a temporary selling phase, approaching a high-probability demand zone between 96.40–98.00.
According to the Smart Money Concept, institutional players are clearing liquidity before driving price back towards the higher supply zone (106–110).
Key Insights:
– Temporary Sell-Off: Price is moving toward the demand zone
– Bullish Reversal Expected: Watch for signs of accumulation around 96.40–98.00
– Next Target: Supply zone near 106+ levels
– Strategy: Monitor for bullish confirmation before longing
Stay ahead with clean Smart Money setups —
"DXY is building a textbook bullish flag — here’s exactly where For Traders (technical + confident)
DXY bulls gearing up for a double-leg rally”
1. Context & Market Structure:
After a sharp impulsive drop (green falling wedge), DXY has begun corrective accumulation in an ascending channel.
Current price 99.531 is consolidating inside a broadening bullish flag pattern.
Key Zones:
Major supply zone: 100.500 – 101.000 (highlighted yellow box)
Short-term resistance: 99.700
Short-term support: 98.8Projected Path (2 bullish legs):
First push (red path): Minor pullback → break to ~100.100
Second push (blue path): Consolidation → breakout towards 100.500–101.000 (target zone)
00–98.500
Bias:
Short-term bullish → Targeting supply zone around 100.5–101.0
Invalidation level: Clear break below 98.500 (would negate bullish setup)
>
Trade Idea:
Buy on dips within the ascending flag, targeting 100.100 and 100.500
Watch reaction near supply zone for possible reversal or continuation
DOLLARThe Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on May 7, 2025, resulted in the decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, maintaining the current policy stance amid rising economic uncertainty primarily driven by trade tensions and tariff impacts.
Key Points from the FOMC Decision and Statement:
The Fed acknowledged that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with the labor market remaining strong and unemployment stable at low levels.
Inflation remains somewhat elevated, with core inflation around 2.6%.
The Committee highlighted increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, especially due to the effects of President Trump’s tariffs, which could raise both inflation and unemployment risks.
The Fed is taking a data-dependent, wait-and-see approach, prepared to adjust policy as needed based on incoming economic information.
The Fed continues to reduce its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities as part of monetary policy normalization.
Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed does not plan preemptive rate cuts and will monitor how tariffs affect inflation and growth before making further moves.
Market and Economic Context:
Despite President Trump’s calls for rate cuts to stimulate growth amid tariff pressures, the Fed resisted, citing the need to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
The Fed noted the risk of stagflation-a combination of slowing growth and rising inflation-due to tariff-induced supply chain disruptions and pricing pressures.
Market expectations shifted after the meeting, with traders now pricing in a lower probability of near-term rate cuts, pushing the first likely cut to July or later in 2025
Summary of Geopolitical and Economic Risks Impacting the Fed’s Decision:
Trade tensions and tariffs between the U.S. and China remain a major source of uncertainty, affecting business confidence, supply chains, and inflation dynamics.
Inflation pressures from tariffs and supply disruptions complicate the Fed’s inflation targeting.
Labor market strength provides some support for the economy, but downside risks from trade policies are growing.
The Fed is navigating a delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding a sharp economic slowdown or rise in unemployment.
In brief:
The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady reflects caution amid mixed economic signals and geopolitical uncertainty, especially tariff-related risks. The central bank remains vigilant, ready to adjust policy as clearer data emerge on inflation, employment, and growth impacts from trade policies.
Impact on the US Dollar
The dollar stabilized and experienced a slight "micro bounce" ahead of the Fed meeting, partly due to optimism about upcoming U.S.-China trade talks.
However, broad skepticism remains about the dollar’s strength amid economic uncertainty and ongoing capital outflows from U.S. assets by major Asian investors.
Market consensus expects the dollar’s longer-term weakness to persist, as investors weigh the risks of slower growth and tariff-related disruptions.
Impact on Bond Markets
The Fed’s steady rate decision and cautious outlook have led to flattening or modest declines in Treasury yields, as investors price in delayed rate cuts and economic slowdown risks.
Uncertainty about trade policy and inflation is keeping bond markets volatile, with investors seeking safe-haven assets amid stagflation concerns.
Impact on Gold Prices
Gold prices have been supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade tensions, rising inflation concerns, and a weaker dollar environment.
The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady without signaling imminent cuts keeps real yields low or negative, which is bullish for gold.
Tariff-related inflation and geopolitical risks (including U.S.-China tensions, Taiwan conflict risks, and Middle East instability) continue to underpin gold’s appeal as a hedge.
DOLLARThe Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on May 7, 2025, resulted in the decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, maintaining the current policy stance amid rising economic uncertainty primarily driven by trade tensions and tariff impacts.
Key Points from the FOMC Decision and Statement:
The Fed acknowledged that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with the labor market remaining strong and unemployment stable at low levels.
Inflation remains somewhat elevated, with core inflation around 2.6%.
The Committee highlighted increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, especially due to the effects of President Trump’s tariffs, which could raise both inflation and unemployment risks.
The Fed is taking a data-dependent, wait-and-see approach, prepared to adjust policy as needed based on incoming economic information.
The Fed continues to reduce its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities as part of monetary policy normalization.
Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed does not plan preemptive rate cuts and will monitor how tariffs affect inflation and growth before making further moves.
Market and Economic Context:
Despite President Trump’s calls for rate cuts to stimulate growth amid tariff pressures, the Fed resisted, citing the need to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
The Fed noted the risk of stagflation-a combination of slowing growth and rising inflation-due to tariff-induced supply chain disruptions and pricing pressures.
Market expectations shifted after the meeting, with traders now pricing in a lower probability of near-term rate cuts, pushing the first likely cut to July or later in 2025
Summary of Geopolitical and Economic Risks Impacting the Fed’s Decision:
Trade tensions and tariffs between the U.S. and China remain a major source of uncertainty, affecting business confidence, supply chains, and inflation dynamics.
Inflation pressures from tariffs and supply disruptions complicate the Fed’s inflation targeting.
Labor market strength provides some support for the economy, but downside risks from trade policies are growing.
The Fed is navigating a delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding a sharp economic slowdown or rise in unemployment.
In brief:
The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady reflects caution amid mixed economic signals and geopolitical uncertainty, especially tariff-related risks. The central bank remains vigilant, ready to adjust policy as clearer data emerge on inflation, employment, and growth impacts from trade policies.
Impact on the US Dollar
The dollar stabilized and experienced a slight "micro bounce" ahead of the Fed meeting, partly due to optimism about upcoming U.S.-China trade talks.
However, broad skepticism remains about the dollar’s strength amid economic uncertainty and ongoing capital outflows from U.S. assets by major Asian investors.
Market consensus expects the dollar’s longer-term weakness to persist, as investors weigh the risks of slower growth and tariff-related disruptions.
Impact on Bond Markets
The Fed’s steady rate decision and cautious outlook have led to flattening or modest declines in Treasury yields, as investors price in delayed rate cuts and economic slowdown risks.
Uncertainty about trade policy and inflation is keeping bond markets volatile, with investors seeking safe-haven assets amid stagflation concerns.
Impact on Gold Prices
Gold prices have been supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade tensions, rising inflation concerns, and a weaker dollar environment.
The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady without signaling imminent cuts keeps real yields low or negative, which is bullish for gold.
Tariff-related inflation and geopolitical risks (including U.S.-China tensions, Taiwan conflict risks, and Middle East instability) continue to underpin gold’s appeal as a hedge.
Dollar Sell, Gold Buy SOONShould continue down further and hit $90. Gold will be going up as well, targeting 4k soon by end of year.
Bullish Look for potential Reversal bullish candlestick formation upon the retest of daily demand zone.
DXY update last trade taken got sl , the reason was we were early sellers that's why market liquidate us.
Now it gave again choch , for safety purpose waitng for 2nd bos as well once market fullfil the condition , looking for short xxx/usd pairs.
USD is Bearish, SO BUY EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD CHF & JPY!In this video, we will update Saturday's forecasts mid-week, and look for valid setup for the rest of the week ahead. The following FX markets will be analyzed:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
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I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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Dollar Index (From Monthly to HourlyDollar index in hourly. Not much space for dollar to depreciate, and l think this will provide a good guidance on the stock market as well.
DXY Bullish scenario (Daily)Dxy is still respecting the market maker buy model idea.
Monday traded inside friday range.
Today (Tuesday) price already traded above monday previous high signaling bullish momentum and a higher probability to trade also above friday high.
Right now price is consolidating between a daily bullish fair value gap and a bearish daily volume imbalance.
With the information we have, price is likelly to shop arround with no clear direction before FOMC.
For the current week price is still in the manipulation phase.
Traders will find higher probability trades after FOMC.
Monitoring economic data and assetsThis is my attempt to get as much of the important economic indicators into one TV superchart. I've added some assets as well so that I can see how they're affected in any particular period.
DXY (US Dollar): Bullish Order FlowA bullish order block has been identified on the H1 timeframe, situated below the Asian session range. With the US Dollar maintaining steady strength, there is potential for price to retrace into this order block for mitigation. Should this occur, a continuation of the bullish trend is anticipated, with price likely to rally and break above the recent structural high.
Could this be DXY's fate amidst the dovish tentions? #FEDS📈 Most Likely Probability: Neutral-to-Slightly Bullish Bias
🔍 Supporting Fundamentals:
Stronger-than-expected NFP: Suggests economic resilience → supports dollar strength.
Fed holding rates steady (but no dovish pivot): Keeps real yields relatively attractive → supports demand for USD.
Tariff/trade calm: Reduces tail risk, but also reduces safe-haven flow → slightly neutral.
📉 Limiting Fundamentals:
Calmer global risk sentiment and improved outlook in emerging markets may reduce dollar inflows.
No fresh hawkish push from the Fed = limited fuel for strong breakout.
📊 Technical Outlook (DXY near 100.00):
Key Support: ~99.70–100.00 (9-day EMA + psychological support)
Key Resistance: ~100.50–101.00 zone
Momentum: Slight recovery attempts with weakening bearish momentum
If the DXY holds above 99.70 and breaks above 100.50, a move toward 101.00 is likely next week. Failing to hold 99.70 could open a pullback toward 99.00.
NFP Analysis: More Bullish Order Flow?The Dollar has broken structure to the upside and is now pulling back into equilibrium. From this discounted level, I'm looking to capitalise on any valid bullish setups, as break-of-structure moves often lead to continuation towards previous highs.
DXY bullish week forecastWeekly on potential external to internal move
Daily chart showing bullish order flow and potential internal to external move.
DXY Technical Expert Review - 3 May 2025Weekly Price Reaction Expectations:
Overall, for this week, we expect a price reaction around the ATI candle zone, followed by another potential reaction near the upper LQCLOSE BOX area.
DXY Bullish Momentum Justification:
Additionally, since the LPP or investment liquidity has been consumed, the bullish momentum in DXY appears more justified.
Dollar Outlook Ahead of Jobs ReportThe dollar index is attempting a comeback, but the 100.20–100.50 zone has so far formed a strong resistance. Today’s jobs report will be key for determining the short-term direction.
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 138k. This could be the last relatively strong report before the effects of tariffs begin to weigh on the labor market. Leading indicators already show significant pressure on trade and transportation employment, though the full impact is likely to emerge in future reports. Still, we may see early signs of softness today.
As the economy comes out of winter, there could be some temporary strength in weather-sensitive sectors. Overall, I expect a slight beat in today’s nonfarm payrolls data. If unemployment also holds at 4.2%, the dollar could respond positively. Positive reaction to the payrolls data usually do not pass around 1% gains.
An interesting detail: TVC:DXY has risen after each of the last eight jobs reports, regardless of whether the data was strong or weak. That trend might end today, though, as the dollar is no longer in an established uptrend.
If the 100.20–100.50 resistance zone breaks, the dollar could climb toward 101.50 in the coming days. However, the broader outlook remains negative.
Please check our longer-term analysis here:
