DXY FOMC FORECASTCristal Clear structure to me, dolar down today before FOMC and then up wild
Levels highlighted
Najors Gold and Cryptos will follow the same behavior
GG
DXY trade ideas
DXY (US Dollar Index)After breaking out of the downtrend and successfully testing the previous resistance level following the breakout from the Falling Wedge, the US Dollar Index looks poised for upward movement. This could temporarily slow down crypto due to dollar strength. 💵
July was nice, but August has historically been the worst month of the year — and we need to be prepared for that.
DXY Buyers Catching BidSee chart for analysis but even with price sitting inside levels of supply, we could easily see stronger Fundamentals coming out to drive this dollar back up into 100.5 areas of monthly supply. Short-term I remain bullish with long term views to the downside.
DOLLAR INDEX U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and US 10-Year Treasury Yield
Dollar Index (DXY) — will reclaim 103-102 level if it crosses 100 mark currently is at 98.34 and faces immediate supply roof ,a make or break situation awaits dollar buyers .
Over the past month, the Dollar Index has gained about 2%, although it is still down over 5% compared to a year ago. The recent uptick follows a period of volatility and selling, with investors recalibrating expectations after the resolution of trade risk premiums and recent U.S.–EU trade deals.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield keep rising after its drop from 4.193% in early july to 4.5% on 17th
Yield on the US 10-year Treasury note is currently about 4.42% , modestly higher than last week and unchanged from the previous session.
Current levels reflect ongoing uncertainty regarding future Federal Reserve policy moves, cautious optimism regarding U.S. economic strength, and some abatement of safe-haven flows after recent global trade developments.
Relationship & Market Synopsis
DXY and the 10-year yield typically have a positive correlation: When Treasury yields rise, the dollar often follows, as higher yields make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to global investors. Conversely, falling yields can weigh on the dollar. However, in 2025, there have been periods of divergence due to external shocks and policy uncertainty.
Current setup: Both DXY and the 10Y yield are rising modestly, signaling a shift to a more constructive tone for the U.S. dollar as risk sentiment stabilizes and investors scale back some safe-haven trades. Recent U.S. economic resilience and fading tariff fears have reduced the need for defensive flows, supporting both yields and the dollar.
Forward outlook: Market consensus expects limited further upside for Treasury yields unless there are strong surprises in U.S. data or Federal Reserve communication. The DXY is projected to stabilize near current levels or drift higher on persistent U.S. economic momentum.
Summary:
Both the Dollar Index and US 10-year Treasury yield are modestly higher as of July 29, 2025. Their positive price action reflects improving US growth prospects, reduced global risk premiums, and recalibrated market expectations on Fed policy. While their relationship is generally positive, periods of divergence have occurred in 2025 due to trade, policy, and economic shocks. Currently, both are showing moderate gains as investor sentiment stabilize
US Dollar Index (DXY) - 4 Hour Chart4-hour chart from CAPITALCOM displays the recent performance of the US Dollar Index (DXY), showing a current value of 98.190 with a slight decline of 0.009 (-0.01%). The chart highlights key price levels, including a recent sell signal at 98.189 and a buy signal at 98.243, with a resistance zone marked between 98.195 and 98.479. The index has experienced fluctuations, with notable drops and recoveries, and is currently trending near the 98.190 level as of July 29, 2025.
Dollar us dxyI think the US dollar will fall sharply, causing a sharp rise in gold. There will probably be a bigger fall than in 2008 in the global economy, especially in the US.
Analysis on the DXY – EURUSD RelationshipHello traders,
Here’s an analysis that can be useful for both short-term and swing trades on EURUSD and DXY. Our trading team’s calculations are as follows:
Analysis on the DXY – EURUSD Relationship
Currently, DXY is at 98.200. Historical statistical data indicate that if DXY declines toward 96.300, there is approximately a **1.55% probability of an upward move** in EURUSD.
Based on this scenario:
Current EURUSD level: 1.16500
Projected target level:1.1830
While the correlation data show a strong inverse relationship, it’s important to note that periodic deviations can occur in the market. Therefore, this analysis should be considered a statistical projection only, not a guaranteed outcome.
DXY - ABC Move still in playDXY has been moving not so much on technical factors lately but more so with what Mr. Trump says, we still could see a move lower with an ABC pattern.
Good Luck
DXYDXY Bullish COT Setup
Commercials: Net-long ~3,988 → smart money positioning for strength
Large Specs: Net-short ~3,451 → bearish bias, potential squeeze risk
COT Index: 94.5% → near historical extreme, signaling possible trend shift
DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to exhibit a bearish outlook driven by a combination of technical weakness and shifting macroeconomic fundamentals. Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, coupled with softer U.S. economic data and declining demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, have weighed heavily on the index. Technically, the DXY remains below key moving averages, with momentum indicators showing sustained weakness. Unless there is a significant shift in sentiment or a surprise in monetary policy direction, the bias remains to the downside over the near to medium term.
Is the DOLLAR bullish? Look at the weekly support zone levelsI am trying to figure out what the recent bullish days mean within the overall range.
Please let me know what you think 🙏🏾
DXYJULY 21-25 recap
Net was -296 last week
Price dropped until Wednesday
Hit the weekly demand zone (strong support)
Sellers paused or covered shorts there
Buyers stepped in → possible bounce or reversal
DXY index moving towards down in higher timeframeAs you can see DXY index is moving inside channel and now its time for second swing failure to go down.Then channel movement will finish and it will breakout towards upward so i recomand trade USD pairs accordingly.This is my analysis not a financial advice so trade according your risk management.
Dollar Index Dips – All Eyes on 97.600?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading just below the 100.000 🔼 resistance area, following a series of lower highs and lower lows that reflect a clear bearish trend. Price is now approaching the 97.600 🔽 level, which has previously acted as a key turning point and could influence the next directional move.
Support at: 97.600 🔽
Resistance at: 100.000 🔼, 101.500 🔼, 102.812 🔼, 104.223 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔽 Bearish: The trend remains bearish while price stays below 100.000. A break below 97.600 may lead to further downside continuation.
🔼 Bullish: A bounce from 97.600 followed by a move back above 100.000 could open the door for a recovery toward 101.500.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
DXY 1D – Tipping Point: News or Price Action?Hey Guys,
The DXY index is currently moving within a downtrend. This trend is unlikely to reverse unless it breaks above the 98.950 level.
Sure, key fundamental data could shift the trend, but without those news catalysts, a reversal at this point doesn’t seem realistic.
Don’t forget—98.950 is a critical threshold for the DXY.
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dxy buy tradeThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing an upward trend, indicating increasing momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a bullish crossover, further supporting the potential for an upward move
DXY - BearishI am expecting more bearish on the USD. There is a possiblity it can get to 97.984 before bearish resumes.
Is the DXY finally changing its trend?It seems that the DXY is showing a tendency to change its trend, but we have to see whether the sellers will allow it or not.
DXY: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 96.722 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
USD Weakness Ahead (3-Month Outlook)EUR/USD: Breaking 1.0850, next target 1.1000
GBP/USD: Cleared 1.2750, heading toward 1.2950
AUD/USD: Rebounded from 0.6650, potential 0.6850
NZD/USD: Above 0.6150, could reach 0.6300
Key Drivers:
1. Fed likely cutting rates before ECB/BoE/RBNZ
2. Commodity recovery (helps AUD/NZD)
3. Political risks weighing on USD
Market Mood:
- Traders reducing long USD positions
- AUD/NZD shorts getting squeezed
Risks:
US inflation surprises upside
Geopolitical shocks boost USD safe-haven demand
Sasha Charkhchian
Dollar dropWith the break of the ascending channel's bottom, the price is expected to reach the bottom of the range.
More Downside in the Greenback?The U.S. Dollar Index began 2025 with a dramatic slide. Now, after a period of consolidation, some traders may see further downside risk.
The first pattern on today’s chart is 99.443, the closing price for both a week and the entire month of May. DXY tested above the level between July 30 and August 1. It got rejected after the Labor Department revised payroll data lower. Has resistance been confirmed?
Second, the reversal occurred at the falling 100-day simple moving average. That may reflect bearishness over the longer term.
Third, stochastics have dropped from an overbought condition. Notice how those turns have occurred at other short-term peaks (marked in yellow).
Finally, traders may focus on news flow and catalysts with the White House expected to announce a replacement for Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler this week.
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