possibility of correctionGiven the index's behavior within the current resistance range, it is expected that the downtrend will continue.
DXY trade ideas
The dollar rebounds to a short rise of 1.618, recovers slightly The dollar rebounds to a short rise of 1,618, recovers slightly
DXY cool offDXY has just completed its 3rd right-translated cycle, with three minuscule waves in the last daly cycle. DXY has been hugging the top of the Bollinger Bands since October. For me, this might suggest a completed leg, which could favor Bitcoin as DXY cools off
The dollar can do it to bounce back up into the sky. The dollar can do it to bounce back up into the sky.
Stumbling DXY ahead of Trump speech and FOMC minutesIt is make or break time for my ideas on the DXY after the DXY failed to hold levels above the 50-day MA at 108. The critical support between 107.2 and 107.5 is currently being tested after the DXY closed the week 1.2% weaker at 106.8 despite US CPI rising for the 4th consecutive month coupled with a rather hawkish yet upbeat testimony before congress from Fed chair Powell, which in my opinion was all dollar positive. US CPI for the month of January came in hotter than expected at 3.0% yoy, up from 2.9% in December. Additionally, on top of Powell’s comments regarding the strength of the US economy, the ISM Manufacturing PMI completely shattered expectations after coming in stronger than expected at 50.9 for the month of January. The DXY however pulled back sharply on Thursday off the back of a weaker than expected initial jobless claims report and a stronger than expected PPI print of 3.5% yoy. The downward momentum gained further traction after core retail sales completely missed expectations, contracting 0.4% mom in January.
If the DXY does not close this week above the support at 107.2 I’ll have to invalidate my series of ideas calling for a move to 112.2. A break below my support range mentioned above will allow the DXY to slide all the way onto the support of the 38.2% FIbo retracement at 105.4 and the 200-day MA currently at 104.9. I’m not ready to invalidate the idea just yet since we may be looking at a bear trap on the DXY but I may have to get back to the drawing board after this week’s trading.
DXY Discussion of the Week My Point of view,
Beware of the uptrend line ,
DXY Reached golden fibonacci zone,
All pairs reach the rejection level.
GBPUSD, EURUSD.
DXY Weekly Chart: "The Bull-trap Breakout"The US Dollar Index is currently positioned at the top of its trading range, which has been in play since 2023 on the weekly timeframe. This presents a solid bearish setup, as the index is likely to reverse and trade back into the range.
This trade idea has been in play since September of 2024 when we were still trading at the BOTTOM of the rang e
Weekly Analysis Video: GBPUSD and EURUSDHello Traders,
In this video, I present my ideas on GBPUSD and EURUSD.
After a week of waiting, we now have a clean intent on GBPUSD.
Find out on this video.
Thanks and cheers
DXY │ S&P500 │NAS100 │GOLDFUNDAMENTAL, SENTIMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of DXY and its implication on the correlated instruments noted in the title.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Indicators:
1. Stock Market: The market is near its highest point (6118 vs. a high of 6130), indicating positive investor sentiment.
2. Unemployment Rate: At 4%, it's relatively low and shows stability compared to the previous month (4.1%), which suggests a healthy labor market.
3. Business Confidence and PMI: Business Confidence (50.9) and Manufacturing PMI (51.2) are above 50, indicating economic expansion.
4. Current Account to GDP: Improved from -3.8% to -3%, indicating a slightly better external position.
Bearish Indicators:
1. GDP Growth: Both the quarterly (2.3%) and annual growth rates (2.5%) have declined, signaling a slowing economy.
2. Non-Farm Payrolls: Significant drop from 307K to 143K, suggesting weakening job creation.
3. Inflation: Increased from 2.9% to 3% with a MoM rise of 0.5%, indicating growing inflationary pressures.
4. Balance of Trade and Current Account: The trade deficit widened from -78.94 to -98.43 USD Billion, and the current account deficit worsened, showing external sector weakness.
5. Government Budget Deficit: Increased from -5.4% to -6.2% of GDP, reflecting fiscal strain.
6. Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales: Consumer Confidence fell to 67.8 from 71.1, and Retail Sales dropped by -0.9%, suggesting weaker consumer spending.
Overall Sentiment: Bearish
Despite some positive indicators like the stock market's strength and a stable labor market, the slowdown in GDP growth, weak payroll data, rising inflation, worsening trade balance, and declining consumer confidence suggest a cautious outlook. The economy appears to be losing momentum, leading to a bearish sentiment overall.
SENTIMENTAL ANALYSIS
Large spec commercial traders are particularly bearish against the dollar ( Commitment of Traders (COT) Analysis for USD Index (ICE Futures U.S.) )
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1. DXY
2. S&P500
3. NAS100
4. GOLD
DXYIf 109.46 DXY is broken, it will undoubtedly reach 111.61. At that point, a bearish reversal could occur
DXY - Interesting Development Post CPIDear Friends,
How I see it:
1St 1W TF Body close below 107.000 in 2 months!
Possible Resistance levels -
1) 107.330
2) 107.500
Next Support levels -
1) 105.700
2) 105.415
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
DXY Feb 10 to 14 weeks analysis DXY
Feb 10 to 14 weeks analysis
Weekly Price has dropped past the .50 level, seeking key sell stops, completing its rebalance of a BISI from dec.
Fridays candle body breaks institutional structure order flow. Note how on Thursday prices reaction on the .50 level in the current trading range and energetically displaces to below the .618 and how Friday continues that trend to the .70 level.
Note how Price spent a lot of time at the 50 on this range and has swept sell stops.
Note that Price is in a double discount on the daily and hourly.
Note how Price has predominately working the lower half of the HFT FVG since Dec 18.
Note that Price has taken all sell stops but the two remaining since Dec 6 low.
Feb 17 to 21 ideas
This week we could see price retraces to rebalance Thursdays inefficiently delivered price as a shot term idea. There could be a raid on stops at the noted equal highs before bearing lower, as an idea for the week.
However if we are in fact bearing it will gravitate to the Daily BISI and noted sell stops-short and long term targets.
This week I want to focus on what liquidity is taken and when. TIME AND PRICE. I have been studying before the market and making a projection and EXCEPTING it to play out. That strategy while informative is creating a habit of inflexibility to me not being dynamic and flexible.
I want to be adaptable to what the tape is reading and create a day plan from there.
DXYDXY sellers took over but if you see correctly there’s a minor pullback before taking another bearish trend looking forward to this correction.
SHORT! US Dollar.....For nowUSD is in a clear wave 2 down for many reasons.
- Tariffs speculation
- Inflation data higher than expected
- US M2 money supply increase
- US manufacturing output drops and Retail sales drop
Moreover, the dollar for now is bearish until reversals in the aforementioned list of causes for its recent decline. Primarily, look for the FED to hold off on any future rate cuts until later in the year. Treasury Yields(Bond Sell off) rising recently is an indication that the market does not expect any FED rate cuts happening anytime soon. This could spur demand for the US Dollar as other Central Banks globally look to continue to cut rates (i.e. ECB and BOE).
DXY "DXY Sell Setup: With easing US tariffs and a shift to risk-off sentiment, I'm targeting a move down to around 106.969 before any rebound. Stay sharp—this sell opportunity could be significant. #DXY #Forex #SellSignal"
[4H] DXY - Mid-Term Analysis Under Donald TrumpThe U.S. dollar experienced heightened volatility on the day of Donald Trump’s hypothetical inauguration for a second term as president, reflecting market uncertainty around his policy agenda. Below is an analysis of potential drivers for the dollar’s trajectory, incorporating short-term dynamics and longer-term risks:
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1. Tariffs, Inflation, and the Fed’s Response
A renewed push for reciprocal—and potentially universal (due to practicality)—tariffs could disrupt global trade flows, raising import costs for U.S. businesses and consumers. Coupled with an already tight labor market, these pressures could accelerate inflation. Elevated input costs (e.g., raw materials, manufactured goods) might manifest in key metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as early as Q2 2024 (March-May), particularly if supply chains face renewed bottlenecks.
In this scenario, the Federal Reserve —which remains staunchly data-dependent—could respond with rate hikes to anchor inflation expectations. Higher interest rates would likely bolster the dollar’s appeal in the near term, attracting foreign capital seeking yield advantages in U.S. Treasuries or other dollar-denominated assets. Markets may price in this hawkish pivot ahead of official Fed action, amplifying short-term dollar strength.
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2. Safe-Haven Demand Amid Geopolitical Risks
Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric (e.g., targeting China, the EU, or emerging markets) risks sparking retaliatory measures, reviving fears of a global trade war. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty could drive investors toward traditional safe-haven assets, including the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds. This dynamic would likely support the DXY (Dollar Index) in the short term, particularly if equity markets react negatively to protectionist policies.
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3. Long-Term Risks: Economic Slowdown and Eroded Confidence
While tariffs and inflation may initially buoy the dollar, their prolonged implementation could backfire. Sticky or increased inflation combined with higher borrowing costs (from Fed hikes) might dampen consumer spending, corporate investment, and GDP growth. Simultaneously, trade barriers could shrink export opportunities for U.S. industries, exacerbating economic headwinds.
Over a multi-year horizon, these factors could undermine confidence in the dollar’s stability, especially if deficits widen or growth stagnates ( stagflation risks ). Markets are forward-looking, however, and may begin discounting these risks earlier—potentially as soon as late 2024—if trade tensions escalate or growth indicators falter.
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Conclusion: Volatility as the Only Certainty
The dollar’s path will hinge on the speed and scale of policy implementation, the Fed’s reaction function, and global market sentiment. While short-term strength is plausible due to rate hike expectations and safe-haven flows, structural risks loom on the horizon. Trump’s unpredictable policymaking style adds layers of uncertainty, suggesting the dollar could face a turbulent, news-driven cycle. Investors should brace for whipsaw moves in the DXY, with tactical opportunities in the near term countered by longer-term macroeconomic vulnerabilities.
Key Watchpoints: CPI prints (Q2 2024), Fed meeting language, trade negotiation timelines, and global central bank responses to U.S. protectionism.
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This analysis balances immediate catalysts with structural shifts, acknowledging the dollar’s role as both a haven and a victim of its own policy successes.
DXYDXY approching a demand floor on daily ,the price action is strong .
if that demand holds ,then mid term gains of AUDUSD,EURUSD,GBPUSD,USDJPY,GOLD ,SILVER,COPPER WILL be affected on technical and not on fundamental.
DXY Trading Journal Feb 13 Analysis DXY Trading Journal
Feb 13 Analysis
Price did gravitate to 15M and rebalance in Asia and London and lowered to the sell side and equal lows, Price did react and come to the 50 in NY before furthering it decline for lower prices, seeking another key low.
Note I stated yesterday that I suspected a long in NY, and it only came up to the CE of the dealers range, leading me to think that we are in fact a bearish bias.
Price is in discount on the weekly, and daily an previous sessions range.
🇺🇸 Is Trump Really Making America Great Again? Or Is DXY Telli🇺🇸 Is Trump Really Making America Great Again? Or Is DXY Telling a Different Story? 💰
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at a critical crossroads, pulling back to weekly support while sitting at deep Fibonacci retracement levels.
This is a key area to watch—if support holds, we could see a strong rebound. But if it fails, a deeper pullback and correction may be on the horizon.
Keep an eye on this level—the next move could set the tone for what’s ahead. 📉📈
DeGRAM | DXY growth in the channelThe DXY is in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price is moving from the lower boundary of the channel and dynamic support, which has already acted as a rebound point twice.
The chart has formed a harmonic pattern.
The index will continue to grow after consolidation above the 62% retracement level.
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