DXY May 20 IdeaDXY
May 20
Parent range discount
Previous range discount
Parent sentiment Bullish
May 19 Delivery
*Sunday's delivery we gap open sending price lower from premium to a discount.
*Asia opened and expanded lower and then consolidated
*London price rallied to take equal lows, inefficient delivered prices, stopping within pips of May 8 lows.
*NY retraced 50% of the run closing in a consolidation.
Did we make the low of the week?
Was this a run on sell stops cause this pair is bull bias?
May 20 Idea
Logic says price cleared out sell side liquidity, it should gravitate to inefficient delivered price from yesterdays delivery, it is in a double discount, I suspect today could be a buy day.
Considerations
1 huge range could see price in consolidation day, choppy price action, yuck
2 no news can sometimes be days where you can get chopped up too
Stay sharp read what the chart is giving to me
NO NEWS M/T/W
DXY trade ideas
USD Bulls Battle at SupportThe U.S. Dollar dropped into support early in the week at 99.95-100.15- a region defined by the 50% retracement of the late-April advance, the 2023 low-day close, and the 2024 low. Note that the 100% extension of the decline rests just lower at 99.55 and losses would need to be limited to this level IF Euro is heading higher on this stretch.
Initial resistance is at with the Friday close at 100.98 with a breach / close above the September high / high-day close (HDC) at 101.77/92 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
-MB
DXY Gaining strength (DXY - 18/05)Price has signalled that the bulls have paused selling. A strong breakout above resistance and triangle pattern break, we are watching for entries higher and looking for continued selling on commodities such as GOLD.
- Current price action on lower charts creating buying opportunities
- Watch 15min chart for next signal higher
- Monitor for continued strengh
US DOLLLAR INDEX - BY RICKO MMFXHumble greetings.
the above instrument is looking like a accumulating Bullish model, considering the recent fundamentals and catalysts behind the instrument I stalk longs in logical areas of the provided Weekly to Daily nearby structural ranges.
Should price in the 30 to 15 minute chart print out a Bullish Choch/Bullish playbook below the 4 hour internal low structure within the FVG and/or below for areas of origin I will be more confident going in for the kill.
May 19–23, 2025GOLD (XAU/USD)
🔑 Key levels:
Resistance: $3,250 – $3,280
Strong Support: $3,150 – $3,120 | $3,050 (a breakdown could push lower)
🗓️ Important News:
FOMC Minutes (Wednesday, May 21) – market will react to tone regarding inflation and rate policy.
US Manufacturing & Services PMI (Thursday, May 22)
🎯 Strategy:
If gold dips to the $3,120–$3,150 zone, consider short-term buying, targeting a move back to $3,250.
A break below $3,100 may signal a sell opportunity, targeting $3,050 or lower.
A breakout above $3,280 → consider buying the breakout. Avoid trading in the chop zone ($3,200–$3,250) unless clear momentum.
💵 USD Index (DXY)
🔑 Key levels:
Resistance: 104.50 – 105.00
Key Support: 103.20 – 102.80
🗓️ Important News:
FOMC Minutes (high impact)
U.S. Housing data, PMI, Durable Goods Orders
🎯 Strategy:
DXY is showing weakness. A break below 103.20 would suggest further USD weakness → bullish for gold and EUR/USD.
If DXY bounces from 103.20 → short-term recovery likely → possible correction in risk assets.
EUR/USD setup: consider buying on a breakout above 1.1000 targeting 1.1200.
📈 U.S. Stock Indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ)
🔑 Key Levels (S&P 500):
Resistance: 5,300 – 5,350 (near all-time highs)
Support: 5,200 – 5,150
🗓️ Important News:
FOMC Minutes – could cause major volatility
Possible speech from Fed Chair Powell
ETF flows and any remaining earnings reports
🎯 Strategy:
If S&P holds above 5,200 → maintain buy on dips strategy.
A break below 5,150 → opens risk for a deeper pullback toward 5,000.
Maintain long positions as long as markets price in rate cuts in Q3.
✅ Weekly Strategy Summary:
Market Primary Strategy Key Levels to Watch
Gold Buy around $3,120–$3,150 Support $3,120 – Resistance $3,280
USD (DXY) Sell if it breaks below 103.20 Support 103.20 – Resistance 104.50
S&P 500 Buy on dips above 5,200 Support 5,150 – Resistance 5,300–5,350
$DXY Dump Incoming? What’s Next for Cryptos!TVC:DXY Dump Incoming? What’s Next for Cryptos!
The fractals in the chart are insane and indicate a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that can fuel significant moves in the crypto market:
Bitcoin & Altcoins Surge:
As the dollar weakens, cryptocurrencies become more attractive, expecting strong rallies in BTC and altcoins.
Commodities Rise:
Gold, silver, and oil typically gain, making crypto a competitor in the “store of value” race.
Risk-On Sentiment:
Investors shift to riskier assets like crypto, increasing prices.
Global FX Shift:
Other currencies gain strength, making crypto a go-to asset for global investors.
Bottom line: When the dollar drops, crypto thrives.
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Trump's dollar disregardUpdated version of my chart from 2022, whereby we predicted the rising strength of TVC:DXY to fill out the channel forecasted. Gold pumping to ATH's with increased political uncertainty throughout the globe and China dumping its US treasuries i am surprised the dollar has held sustained this price.
Here present is some technical analysis outlining the key levels for $TVC:DXY. Keeping this text short i am predicting the decline of the Dollar and i am currently keeping my eye on the GBP/USD chart alongside NOK/USD as see these as the most interesting in the FX markets.
DOLLARDollar (DXY) Outlook: Bearish Near-Term, Consolidation with Mild Depreciation
Current Trends: The U.S. dollar has weakened 8.4% year-to-date, pressured by:
Economic Contraction: Q1 2025 GDP shrank by 0.3%, driven by pre-tariff import surges and softening domestic demand.
Fed Policy Uncertainty: Mixed signals on inflation control and delayed rate cuts erode confidence.
Trade Tensions: Escalating U.S. tariffs disrupt global markets, favoring alternatives like the euro as a safe haven.
Technical Momentum: Bearish chart patterns suggest further downside, with key support levels at risk.
Reserve Currency Status: Despite concerns, the USD retains 57.8% of global reserves, providing a floor against rapid declines.
Treasury Yields and Recession Signals
Yield Levels
10-year: 4.439%
2-year: 3.976%
30-year: 4.900%
Inverted Yield Curve: The 10-2 spread remains negative, a historically reliable recession indicator. Past inversions preceded downturns by 18–92 weeks, signaling heightened recession risks.
Implications for USD:
Inverted curves typically weaken the dollar as markets price in future Fed rate cuts.
Rising long-term yields (e.g., 10-year at 4.439%) paradoxically coincide with dollar weakness, reflecting investor skepticism about U.S. economic resilience.
Key Drivers and Cross-Currency Impacts
Factor Impact on USD Impact on Yields
Fed Policy Uncertainty ↓ (Delayed cuts weigh) ↑ (Volatility in rate expectations)
Trade Tariffs ↓ (Safe-haven flows to EUR) ↑ (Risk premium in long-term yields)
Inverted Yield Curve ↓ (Recession fears) – (Historically precedes recessions)
Eurozone Growth (0.4% Q1) ↓ (EUR strength pressures USD) –
Conclusion
The U.S. dollar faces a bearish near-term bias, driven by economic softness, tariff headwinds, and technical breakdowns. Treasury yields, particularly the inverted curve, reinforce recession risks and further USD downside. However, the dollar’s reserve status and higher relative rates (vs. peers like the euro and yen) may limit severe declines, favoring consolidation with mild depreciation.
Watch for:
Fed communication on rate cuts and inflation.
Eurozone PMI data (May 22) to gauge EUR resilience.
10-2 yield spread dynamics for recession timing clues.
In summary, the dollar’s trajectory hinges on balancing recession risks against its yield advantage, with bears currently in control.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 100.27
1st Support: 99.06
1st Resistance: 101.91
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DXY (US Dollar): Bullish Order FlowA bullish order block has been identified on the H1 timeframe, situated below the Asian session range. With the US Dollar maintaining steady strength, there is potential for price to retrace into this order block for mitigation. Should this occur, a continuation of the bullish trend is anticipated, with price likely to rally and break above the recent structural high.
DXY 1W Forecast until the end of MAY 2025Up-trend will resume and last until the end of February 2025 topping no higher than 114. Current bottom is in at 105.9
Hence, it shouldn't fall below.
After February a consolidation period of 1,5 months will trap price action between the bottom of 122.16 and upper level of 114.9
The spring squeezed during consolidation will provide enough energy for further upwards movement starting in the end of April 2025. This will ignite a chain of devaluation of national currencies followed by epidemic inflation across the globe. This will finish/cool-down at DXY reaching the mark of 148.
New reality after May 2025?
US Dollar Index 1WCurrent strengthening of DXY will not last for long. Optimal level for start of reversal is 103.122
After the reversal the downtrend will resume and go for final stage (discharge) which may look like a flash crash on the last week of June 2025 down to 96.362
Starting from July 2025 DXY will print a reversal pattern moving sideways and slightly up all the way until September 2025. In the mid-end of September we will see a major retest which will mark a start big bullish cycle and global domination of US Dollar.