Coffee Flag?the failed head and shoulders target was met, and an 11-month trendline was also broken
now is the time for a bearish continuation flag ??
KC1! trade ideas
KCK2022 (Coffee Futures) | H1 Bullish PressureType : Bullish Pressure
Resistance : 228.10
Pivot: 220.20
Support : 214.00
Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 220.20 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement . Price can potentially rise up to the 1st resistance level at 228.10, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection , with a graphical swing high resistance. Our bullish bias is further supported by price trading above the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
Alternative scenario: Price might also dip towards the 1st support level of 214.00 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 78.6%% Fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: No Major News
KCK2022 (Coffee Futures) | H1 Bullish PressureType : Bullish Pressure
Resistance : 228.10
Pivot: 220.20
Support : 214.00
Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 220.20 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially rise up to the 1st resistance level at 228.10, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection, with a graphical swing high resistance. Our bullish bias is further supported by price trading above the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
Alternative scenario: Price might also dip towards the 1st support level of 214.00 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 78.6%% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: No Major News
Drink your cup of coffee and make money as well It is currently sitting on the support level 211.30 and have been enjoying a rally over the past few days.
KCK202 - COFFEE C® FUTURES May2022KCK2022 (Coffee Futures) | H4 Bullish Bounce
Buy limit at support 215.75 - 219.30
Stoploss: 210.20
Take profit TP1: 230 và TP2: 241
KC1! 1W Long Term Coffee Futurestest
Coffee is one of the world's most important cash commodities . Coffee is the common name for any type of tree in the genus madder family. It is actually a tropical evergreen shrub that has the potential to grow 100 feet tall. The coffee tree grows in tropical regions between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn in areas with abundant rainfall, year-round warm temperatures averaging about 70 degrees Fahrenheit, and no frost. In the U.S., the only areas that produce any significant amount of coffee are Puerto Rico and Hawaii. The coffee plant will produce its first full crop of beans at about five years old and then be productive for about 15 years. The average coffee tree produces enough beans to make about 1 to 1 ½ pounds of roasted coffee per year. It takes approximately 4,000 handpicked green coffee beans to make a pound of coffee . Wine was the first drink made from the coffee tree using the coffee cherries, honey, and water. In the 17th century, the first coffee house, also known as a "penny university" because of the price per cup, opened in London. The London Stock Exchange grew from one of these first coffee houses.
Coffee is generally classified into two types of beans: arabica and robusta. The most widely produced coffee is arabica, which makes up about 70 percent of total production. It grows mostly at high altitudes of 600 to 2,000 meters, with Brazil and Colombia being the largest producers. Arabic coffee is traded at the ICE Futures U.S. exchange. The stronger of the two types is robusta. It is grown at lower altitudes with the largest producers being Indonesia, West Africa, Brazil, and Vietnam. Robusta coffee is traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Ninety percent of the world coffee trade is in green (unroasted) coffee beans. Seasonal factors have a significant influence on the price of coffee . There is no extreme peak in world production at any one time of the year, although coffee consumption declines by 12 percent or more below the year's average in the warm summer months. Therefore, coffee imports and roasts both tend to decline in spring and summer and pick up again in fall and winter.
Very low prices for coffee can create serious long-term problems for coffee producers. When prices fall below the costs of production, there is little economic incentive to produce coffee , and coffee trees may be neglected or completely abandoned. When prices are low, producers cannot afford to hire the labor needed to maintain the trees and pick the crop at harvest. The result is that trees yield less due to reduced use of fertilizer and fewer employed coffee workers. One effect is a decline in the quality of the coffee that is produced. Higher quality Arabica coffee is often produced at higher altitudes, which entails higher costs. It is this coffee that is often abandoned. Although the pressure on producers can be severe, the market eventually comes back into balance as supply declines in response to low prices.
Coffee prices are subject to upward spikes in June, July, and August due to possible freeze scares in Brazil during the winter months in the Southern Hemisphere. The Brazilian coffee crop is harvested starting in May and extending for several weeks into what are the winter months in Brazil. A major freeze in Brazil occurs roughly every five years on average.
Coffee futures and options are traded at the ICE Futures U.S. and ICE Futures Europe exchanges, and the B3 Exchange (formerly BM&F/BOVESPA). Coffee futures are traded on the JSE Securities Exchange (JSE).
Prices - ICE Arabica coffee futures prices (Barchart.com symbol KC) were under pressure in Q1-2019 and fell to a 15-1/4 year low of 86.35 cents per pound in April 2019. Robust supplies undercut arabica coffee prices as data from the International Coffee Organization ( ICO ) showed that global 2018 arabica coffee exports climbed +4.3% yr/yr to 78.63 million bags. Also, ICO forecasted a global 2018/19 coffee surplus of +4.96 million bags, increasing from a +2. 05 million bag surplus in 2017/18. Conab, the Brazilian government's forecasting agency, said it expected Brazil's 2019 coffee crop would climb to 50.9 million bags, the highest ever seen for a lower-yielding half of a two-year cycle. Weakness in the Brazilian real throughout 2019 further encouraged export selling by Brazil's coffee producers as the real slid to new record lows against the dollar. Brazil coffee researcher Cepea projected Brazil 2018/19 coffee exports would jump to a record 40 million bags on persistent weakness in the Brazilian real. Coffee prices recovered into Q3-2019 as adverse weather in Brazil curbed coffee yields. In September 2019, Conab cut its Brazil 2019 coffee crop forecast to 49 million bags from a prior forecast of 50.9 million bags. Coffee prices then rallied into year-end after ICO in November 2019 projected a global 2019/20 coffee deficit of -502,000 bags, compared with a downwardly revised surplus of +3.7 million bags for 2018/19. Supplies tightened after ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell from a 5-1/2 yr high of 2.502 million bags in March to a 1-1/2 year low of 2.022 million bags in December. Prices finished 2019 up +27.3% yr/yr at 129.70 cents per pound.
Supply - World coffee production in the 2019/20 marketing year (July-June) is expected to fall -3.1% yr/yr to 169.130 million bags (1 bag equals 60 kilograms or 132.3 pounds) after rising by +10.0% yr/yr to a new record high of 174.500 million bags in 2018/19. Coffee ending stocks in the 2019/20 marketing year are expected to fall -7.7% yr/yr to 33.545 million bags after the +17.1% surge seen in 2018/19 to 36.348 million bags. Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer by far, followed by Vietnam.
Demand - U.S. coffee consumption in 2019 rose +7.3% yr/yr to 29.211 million bags, a new record high.
Trade - World coffee exports in 2019/20 are forecasted to fall -0.8% yr/yr to 136.777 million bags, down from last year's record high of 137.924. The world's largest exporters of coffee in 2018/19 were Brazil with 25.6% of world exports, Vietnam with 20.4%, and Columbia with 9.6%. U.S. coffee imports in 2019 rose +7.3% yr/yr to 29.211 million bags, a new record high. The key countries from which the U.S. imported coffee in 2019 were Brazil with 27.3% of U.S. imports, Columbia with 20.4%, Guatemala with 4.8%, and Mexico with 4.5%.
KCK2022 (Coffee Futures) | H4 Bearish MomentumType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 220.95
Pivot: 213.75
Support : 200.60
Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 213.75 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially move towards the 1st support level which is graphical swing low support. Our bearish bias is further supported by price trading below the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
Alternative scenario: Price could also head towards the 1st resistance level of 220.95 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 38.2%% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: No Major News
KCK2022 (Coffee Futures) | H4 Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce
Resistance : 220.75
Pivot: 211.10
Support : 204.70
Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 211.10 in line with 127.20% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially move towards the 1st resistance level of 220.75. Our bullish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator as it is at support level.
Alternative scenario: Price could also head towards the 1st support level of 204.70 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 138.2%% Fibonacci extension .
Fundamentals: No Major News
KCK2022 (Coffee Futures) | H4 Bearish DipType : Bearish Dip
Resistance : 233.50
Pivot: 221.45
Support : 202.30
Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 221.45 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially dip to the 1st support level of 202.30 which is a swing low support. Our bearish bias is further supported by price moving under the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
Alternative scenario: Price could also head towards the 1st resistance level of 233.50 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Fundamentals: No Major News
KC, coffee futurescoffee futures, as I see in my graphic as a professional analyst the coffee market is trying to go up at this moment
COFFEE- BUY strategyI have not followed coffee for a while, and I think last update it looked we may see higher, but stalled and then followed by sharper fall. Not sure the connection to the current situation, and perhaps over supply may be the reasons. I am sure some of the connections can tell more.
Looking at the chart, it feel we are basing again somewhere, and we have seen these levels before. Maybe with low risk stop-loss buying strategy is in place.
Strategy suggested is BUY current $ 220-225 and place stop-loss below $ 200 and take profit around $ 243 for now.
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sell the coffeesell the coffee and cash in your profit it should go down in the logic of my technical analysis
Bullish triangle pattern - waiting to be resolvedThe bottom side of this triangle was confirmed multiple times now. Waiting for a test of the upper side and/or just a breakout.
The next target zone will be around 250-255 USX.
It's coffee time!See chart.
NOTE : The thing about charting is IT IS BASED on probability based on historical price actions and patterns. But the market is forward looking and to restrict oneself to say that if the price moves to A, then it would goes to B, then C is not only myopic but also underestimate the Market which is ever changing.
Price action could very well not touched the support line before retrace higher. Or price may not necessarily hit the 50% or 61.8% FIB level as precisely as we would like it to be. IT IS A GUIDE only.
When one trades on a larger time frame, then the short term price movements would matters less as you are concerned with the overall direction of the product you are trading.
I have find my heart beating way too fast and my emotions go haywire the time when I tried trading 15 minutes time frame or less. Sometimes, after keying in the order, I am already stopped out!! OUCH!!!
Leave this fast trading game to the experts who can make millions trading thousands of trades a day. They earn their marks through years of practice , I am sure.
Technical Outlook for the Coffee Market, backed by fundamentals.Fundamentals: The coffee Market has been in a strong bullish trend ever since a frost hit the brazil coffee belt in July / August 2021, followed by a period of drought. This left the world´s biggest producer of Arabica coffee with huge productivity losses for the 2021/2022 crop. That results in a really tight Arabica balance sheet for 2022, which could get worse through re-openings of coffee-to-go shops after Covid-19 lockdowns. The tense global logistic situation with low vessel space, exploding freight rates and shortage of containers and truckers is fuel to the already burning fire of less coffee supply than demand.
What can be examined from this is, that roasters tap into certified coffee inventories drowning them to 10-year lows, an extremely bullish factor ever since.
Technicals: Prices stay in an uptrend channel, that can be divided into a major channel and two minor ones. The structure stayed between those two lines while completing several Elliott-Waves. After a new ABC correction from the 160,00 cts high, prices could start a new 5-Wave up to test the upper line of the major channel at ~175,50 cts. The certified inventories sliding below the magical number of 1 million bags would support this move.
Certified Coffee Inventory
bilderupload.org
Chart
COFFEE-BUY strategyWe are still long since $ 243 and we are targeting $ 268 > 285 for now.
If position new, BUY current $ 253 and place stop-loss below $ 230 for now (financial stop). Profit order first $ 268.
an analyse about coffee kc in 15 min frame "sell"I think there is no volume but I think it's time to sell
Coffe seams to go up againa confirmed entry above 18 Moving average was good for a profitable trade 42% of the time since 2019
no target but usually I trail my stop at the low of prior two days...
