ABC BullishContinuous contract 12/20
Entry over long level with a confirmed uptrend
Possible stop below 103
Possible T2 151.5 to 161
Not a recommendation
KC1! trade ideas
Weekly coffee market review 11/02/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed lower at 104.35 ct/lb. The worsening health situation with a sharp increase in covid-19 cases in the USA and Europe has strongly impacted the markets last week. Due to the magnitude of the 2nd wave, Europe is reconfirming itself, this is the case of Ireland, Czech Republic, France, Germany, England, Portugal, Austria, and countries such as Spain or Italy and others are taking more and more drastic measures, such as curfews, closing bars and restaurants, or limiting people in meetings. The United States is seeing a record number of covid cases in the run-up to the election.
Bars and restaurants are places of high coffee consumption, and their closure in Europe will weigh on demand.
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) forecasts a surplus of 1.54 million bags for the 2019/20 season. The drought of the previous months will have an impact on the next harvest in Brazil even though the rains have now arrived.
The very low Real is benefiting Brazilian coffee exporters who are taking advantage of their increased competitiveness to flood the market. According to Reuters, 64% of Brazilian production has already been sold compared to the five-year average of 53%. The depreciation of the local currency increases producers' income from dollar-denominated products.
In the United States, the American election is scheduled for tomorrow, November 3, and tensions on the market are not excluded. Investors fear the possibility that Donald Trump may be declared a narrow loser and do not want to recognize the results, making the transition more complicated and delaying the vote on the long-awaited plan to support the US economy.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. The rainy season has now begun. Rainfall last week ranged from 50 to 100 mm.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.149 million bags of 60 Kg for 1.129 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 93.882. The 2nd epidemic wave is scaring the market and the Dollar seems to be playing its role as a safe-haven currency. The chances of a quick agreement on a plan to support the U.S. economy are now nil. We will have to wait now for the election result, and this is beneficial to the Dollar in the short term.
On the FED side, things will certainly remain frozen until the outcome of the American election. The FED has insisted on the need for a quick vote of a support plan, and assures that the key rates will remain permanently low.
Last week, the Brazilian Real closed lower at 0.1726. The trend is still bearish. The rise of the Dollar, which plays its role as a safe haven, is weighing on the Brazilian Real. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the coffee futures market is down this week to 35,421 K instead of 40,708 K.
COFFEE May Reverse! Here is Why:
coffee is extremely bearish since September.
we saw a sharp and strong decline during the last two month.
however, just recently the price has reached a major daily support level.
chances are high that we will see at least a pullback from that.
I am waiting for a 4H candle close above 107.1 level.
it is a horizontal neckline of an inverted h&s pattern.
after the breakout I will buy the market on retest.
goals:
110.65
113.0
(if neckline is respected and price drops below the head, setup will be invalid)
COFFEE REVERSE H&S PATTERN| TRADING PLAN|
COFFEE has reached a confluence of strong support lines, so I am looking for a long opportunity.
Now, we can see that there has been a breakout of the downwards channel resistance upwards
This breakout was also a breakout of the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern.
Now, we are waiting for the 4h candle to close ABOVE the neckline and we are going long from the pullback.
Sl below the right shoulder high. Two take level are the two resistance levels that you can see on the chart.
Thank you for watching, like and subscribe so that you never miss a new video!
See you next time!
Weekly indicates further downside Bullish Coffee longer term "La Niña", target is still to buy the 100 level
MM long covered 2'502 contracts, now siting at 43'077
MM short added 4'723 contracts, now sitting at 23'339
RectangleA Rectangle is a continuation pattern that forms as a trading range during a pause in the trend. The pattern is easily identifiable by two comparable highs and two comparable lows. The highs and lows can be connected to form two parallel lines that make up the top and bottom of a rectangle.
Targets are listed for a brreak up from rectangle pattern with entry level at 136.3 with a clear uptrend
and a break down from rectangle at 97.25 in a clear downtrend
Mid Rectangle is possible stop either way it breaks
This can be a very long term pattern and some swing trade inside of the channel
Rectangles are sometimes referred to as trading ranges, consolidation zones or congestion areas.
Rectangles can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a flag, also a continuation pattern. Ideally, rectangles will develop over a 3-month period. Generally, the longer the pattern, the more significant the breakout. A 3-month pattern might be expected to fulfill its breakout projection. However, a 6-month pattern might be expected to exceed its breakout target.
The direction of the next significant move can only be determined after the breakout has occurred. As with the symmetrical triangle, rectangles are neutral patterns that are dependent on the direction of the future breakout. Volume patterns can sometimes offer clues, but there is no confirmation until an actual break above resistance or break below support.
Not a recommendation
I Recommend buying !COFFEE C Will Rise Next days
I Advais You To Buy Or keep it in the portfolio
target 124 USD
StoopLoSS 100 USD
COFFEE - Possible "coffee break" aheadCoffee is back around the price of the beginning of the month.
Since OCT 2 we have a shy uptrend forming for coffee’s standards, in the 4h time frame (TF).
The price went up from its lowest of the current month and $104.90 to $113.35 (+8.04%) on OCT 12 and $111.70 (+6.45%) today so far.
The trend on the Higher TFs is still bearish and technically this is where are now.
We have some indications suggesting that we might be in front of a total reversal for the price of Coffee.
There are:
1) Higher lows since OCT 2
2) at the 4h TF since OCT 9 from the 10 bars 8 of them are above the 50MA
3) we had two major tests (and rejections) for price to break above two week resistance
4) we expect the price to reach at some point soon the monthly Fib 0.382 level
Against the above are the latest data from the COT report of OCT 6 where hedge funds closed 3.207 positions and opened 4.219 bringing the Net Long positions to 47.505 from 54.931 the previous week. Of course we still don’t know what their positions are for the current week.
So what we make out of all this.
To put it in simple terms with what I know so far the longer the price remains above the 50MA the more the chances of it breaking the $112 and move towards the Fib 0.382. The “Decision lvl” is where the two weeks resistance meets the blue trendline. Break it and we buy.
If on the other hand price breaks below the green trend line and the 20MA then we might be looking for more to the down.
Good luck traders
Note: I'm no trading expert nor have the ambition to become one! The above is just an idea that I share with the intention of attracting comments and perhaps become a better trader.
COFFEE FUTURE : POTENTIALLY SOMETHING BIG TO COMEENGLISH
- Prices have been evolving below a bearish trendline, registering lower highs but no significant new market bottoms since May 2011. The long-term trend is then neutral.
- However, even though prices have still been consolidating laterally over the last year, they also managed to clear their bearish trendline by successfully rebounding multiple times over the 87.00/103.75 zone, registering what looks like a reversal rounding bottom pattern . In addition, volumes have been on the rise during all the testing phase of the support zone while the DMI shows an increasing bullish pressure inside a more and more directional movement.
- It is still hard to talk about a strong bullish reversal here as the market hasn’t registered any new highs. However, this year’s bullish breakout tells us the bearish trend is now over while positive signs on technical indicators (transaction volumes and DMI) demonstrate buyers ‘interest for the asset. It seems the slow dance around the strong psychological and technical level of 100.00 has been an opportunity for bull traders to try to regain control of the market. In this configuration, the bullish scenario remains the most likely but a market close below the 103.75/95.00 zone would invalidate or, at least, delay the bullish potential towards 140.00, 172.00, 198.00 and 224.00 by extension.
NB : Coffee has been overperforming the Bloomberg Commodity Index since October 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
FRENCH
- Les prix ont évolué sous une ligne de tendance baissière, enregistrant des sommets de plus en plus bas mais aucun nouveau creux de marché significatif depuis mai 2011. La tendance long-terme est donc neutre.
- Cependant, même si les prix ont consolidé latéralement au cours des dernières années, ils ont également réussi à s’affranchir de leur ligne de tendance baissière de long-terme en rebondissant à de multiples reprises au-dessus de la zone 87.00/103.75, en s’inscrivant dans ce qui semble être une figure haussière de creux en soucoupe. De plus, les volumes ont été en hausse durant toute la phase de test de la zone support alors que le DMI affiche une pression acheteuse grandissante au sein d’un mouvement de plus en plus directionnel.
- Il est toujours compliqué de parler d’un fort renversement à la hausse alors que le marché n’a toujours pas effectué de plus haut significatif. Cependant, le franchissement technique de cette année nous confirme que la tendance baissière de long-terme est désormais terminée alors que les signes positifs rapportés par les indicateurs techniques (volumes de transaction et DMI) nous démontrent un regain d’intérêt des acheteurs pour l’actif. Il semblerait que la lente dance des prix autour du niveaux technique et psychologique fort des 100.00 a été une opportunité pour les acheteurs de tenter de reprendre le contrôle du marché. Dans cette configuration, le scénario haussier reste le plus probable mais toute clôture de marché en-dessous de la zone 103.75/95.00 invaliderait ou, du moins, diffèrerait le potentiel haussier vers 140.00, 172.00, 198.00 puis 224.00 par extension.
NB : le café superforme l’indice Bloomberg des matières premières depuis Octobre 2019.
KC - Coffee futures - Sell set up - EW analysis Welcome guys,
CycleWave is the top author sharing trade ideas based on EW analysis since last five months on the global stocks, currency pairs, cryptos, future indices and commodities. You can follow us to get more trade ideas/analysis.
KC Coffee futures - It is within ABC zigzag down move, where B wave was corrected in complex wxy correction in ending diagonal c in y wave. The drop should be expected sharp down. So stay bearish at current level with stop loss above 113.40 for target below 100 level. There is a chance of C wave extension too. But next price action will reveal the how C wave down will reach the target. Dump it down from current level. There is also a chance of B wave extension if price crosses above invalidation level. so stay small in size unless it made a new low.
Give thumbs up if you really like the trade idea.
COFFEE - Turning the tide ?Coffee after a 3 week structure and battle seems to be making a break towards the Fib 0.382.
The higher time frames still point down.
The ADX indicator shows uptrend but no strength yet (it usually has a delay on that).
The COT of Sep 29 shows a lot of long orders closed (-3745) and more short open (+3065) with net long positions to 54931 compared to 61741 of the week before that.
So hudge funds expect more to the down.
We might have a turn of tide for coffee if this is not a false breakout, at least up to the Fib 0.382 area.
I will start engaging buy orders just after the decision level (green line) is broken to the upside by solid moves, maybe wait for the day to close.
Good luck traders.
Note: I'm no trading expert nor have the ambition to become one! The above is just an idea that I share with the intention of attracting comments and perhaps become a better trader.
COFFEE BREAKOUT LONG|
COFFEE MET SUPPORT.
BROKE OUT OF THE CHANNEL.
RETESTED.THUS LONG.
Like and Subscribe, guys!
ABC BullishPossible stop below C or where you feel comfortable
Not to long entry level
This pattern is only valid when price breaks the BC leg in a confirmed uptrend
Not a recommendation
LONG KC (Coffee) here to 160 by Dec. (73 days)3 separate (Bearish Bat + Gartley) PRZs line up @160!
With the Real strengthening but also, option volatility rather expensive @ 41%...
... we have bought up the Dec. 2020, 140-160 CALL Spreads for $1095 a pop.
We are expecting Coffee to finish the year >160.00, for a 1:7.3 R/R on this trade - i.e. $7500 / contract.
Good luck out there!
INTERESTING DIVERGENCE!CHEESE AND MILK ARE THE AGRICULTURE FUTURES WHICH HAVE RISEN THE MOST IN PRICE DURING 2020, BUT BUTTER HAS FALLEN THE MOST IN PRICE DURING 2020!
IF YOU HAVE ACCESS TO FUTURES OR OPTIONS ON BUTTER THROUGH YOUR EXCHANGE, IT IS AN EXCELLENT VALUE PLAY!
Will the smart money drive coffee prices even lower? According to last weeks Commitment of Traders report (COT) which breaks down the total open interest as of each Tuesday’s settlement for markets held amongst three groups of traders (Commercials, Non-Commercials and Non-Reportables) showed that Commercial Hedgers more commonly known as Smart Money Hedgers are holding near extreme bearish exposure on Coffee which totalled -65,782 contracts (previous week -70,963).
At these extreme levels, commercials are important to watch as they have proven themselves over time to be correct at crucial turning points.
What’s interesting with this particular soft commodity is that the current turning point illustrated in the chart, where inside trendline support, 78.6 fib and ascending trendline junction at (1) contradicts the Smart Moneys near extreme bearish positioning. However, it’s our opinion that any downside relief at this triple support cluster will only provide better selling opportunities for the next leg down.
Non-Commercial traders trimmed their bullish net positions last week from the previous week by -4,598 contracts which now total 61,741 contracts. These large speculators are trend followers by definition and usually get it wrong at turning points, along with small speculators (Non-Reportables) which totalled a net position of 4,041 contracts, down -583 contracts reported the previous week (4,624 contracts).
