KC1! trade ideas
Coffee: Caffeine's about to hit ☕The coffee price has been moving downward since February last year within the framework of the superior wave Y in turquoise. In our primary expectation, however, this descent should not last much longer. In the orange target zone between USX 144.40 and USX 136.40, it should come to the low, followed by subsequent rises. Only falling below the zone would put a spoke in the wheel. Then, the price would have to drop much further within our 35% probable alternative before the reversal sets in.
NEW YORK ICE COFFEE:Maintain our bearish outlook We maintain our bearish outlook. The market is swinging within a descending channel.
ONLY a clear close above KP will abort the bearish scenario and clear the path for a strong rally.
Coffee price will decreaseHere are some information that can decrease coffee price in the short term:
A bumper crop of coffee beans: If there is a bumper crop of coffee beans, this will lead to an increase in supply and a decrease in prices. This is because the market will be flooded with coffee beans, which will drive down the price.
A decrease in demand for coffee: If there is a decrease in demand for coffee, this will also lead to a decrease in prices. This could happen if people start drinking less coffee or if the price of coffee becomes too high.
Government intervention: Governments can also intervene in the coffee market to stabilize prices. This could involve buying coffee beans to increase demand or selling coffee beans to decrease supply.
Improved coffee production: If coffee producers become more efficient, this could lead to a decrease in prices. This is because the cost of production will go down, which will allow producers to sell coffee beans for less money.
New coffee substitutes: If new coffee substitutes are developed, this could lead to a decrease in demand for coffee. This is because people may switch to the substitutes, which will drive down the price of coffee.
Entry: 154.30
TP1: 151.90
TP2: 147.90
SL: 157.55
Bobby's homework assignment Coffee8.2.23 This video Is about coffee which is found buyers and will probably go higher. This Market is a good exercise in drawing range boxes and that's the main reason why I posted coffee because I wanted Bobby to draw some range boxes from the past. and we mixed in a little bit of Extensions as well. My range boxes won't make any sense unless you go through an exercise like this. It's a good thing Is that range boxes don't have to be perfect... and sometimes you need to change them a little bit..... but if you learn how to do this they can help you.... and even keep you out of trades that won't be good trades. It is worth doing the exercise even if you do not trade coffee.
Coffee Bitcoin7.6.23 I'm going to start with a correction.... I referred to gold when I was looking at Bitcoin... it's Bitcoin. I'm having problems with Bitcoin because of its lack of volatility and I explain those details to give you my perspective. I made a second mistake on the Bitcoin when I was showing the range boxes on a chart with weekly bars.... not daily bars. The point I was trying to make Judging the swings inside the box and comparing the range of the bars on the current behavior Is entirely different... and it is a very significant difference to my mind. Coffee next.
KC17.6.23 In this video I'm looking for a long trade in coffee even though it looks like it may trade lower to those extensions. The reason why I picked coffee even though most people will never trade it, Is that it's a very good example of using the tools that I like to use. So don't worry if you will never trade coffee<<< you should focus on how to look for buyers and sellers, support and resistance, and. how the bars are moving. I always look to the left to examine how the market looked previously and this is critical for me and gets me clues as I look at the market in real time. This is not a waste of time, it's how I use comparisons to decide in the present.
Indexes and coffee6.26.23 This video Is about the indexes and my belief that they're going to move lower. I was looking at the ES and the Russell. I believe they are short trades but we're a little late and we should have done this before the weekend yet I believe they're going to trade lower. the other market is the coffee market and I think that it just gave A signal that you could go along with a small stop..... I do not trade this market, my students trade It and I am addressing Questions asked if I wanted my students. I didn't have the time to express what I'm going to tell you now with regard to the coffee market: I believe it's a good enough entry that it will probably trade higher and that you will have a minimal drawdown and that it will not likely hit a Small stop. I told you that I believe it could retest the breakout below the range box and that might take a day or two or more if it gets there. So if you can get in to a trade with a small stop and it moves a thousand bucks or so without stopping you out... I considered a decent entry.... but I don't really think of it as a market that's going to make new highs or even move more deeply into the range box above.... it might but I need to see the price action first. If I can take a train with a small stop and I think the market is likely to move $1,000 higher or so without hitting the small stop... it's a reasonable scalp and it's okay..... but this isn't the kind of trade where I think it'll go up Thousands and thousands of dollars it's not that kind of market until there's evidence of stronger Influence of the buyers you just don't see it yet.
KC1! Gold6.12.23 I probably should have made this Bobby's homework assignment..... I went back to take another look at gold to help me manage my Miserable state of mind... which was totally unnecessary. I added the coffee market which is moving beautifully... even though it got lower after the weekend. It's very important to understand the tools and went to take profits to avoid Drawdowns.... and also to allow you to take a profit.... let the market reverse... and then actually take a long trade. There will always be good decisions, Marginal decisions. and bad decisions<<<<Coupled with greed and fear. But this is why we use tools and strategies that help us sort it out. Everybody who trades... has losing trades.You learn to prepare for it. For example... when I go out to buy two pieces of pastry, not just one...AND A large cup of coffee... I bring some Pepto-Bismol To deal with any untoward consequences. Always be prepared.
Coffee could redefine what a bull market really isThe multi-year base in Coffee, if this is a correct chart diagnosis, could send Coffee into the troposphere. Seldom have we seen "life-of-contract" multi year bases, but this could be one
KC1!6.8.23 This is a video follow up on coffee that started out as a great long trade for my students and then the market transitioned and started going lower to the point it looked like sellers were going to prevail. However the market Started reversing and moving higher but not with Reckless abandon. It looked more like a difficult grind moving higher as opposed to a clear Bullish price Action Moving higher. It's different... and therefore it can be more difficult to trade... and or stay committed to the grind going higher. So it didn't look really bullish but the sellers weren't Pushing it lower and so we stayed with the thought that the Buyers have a slight edge over the sellers and that we should hold with a long position as opposed to Exiting the market,,,, and this paid off. It's about what the market did and what it didn't do for my perspective: It was grinding higher, but not in a very convincing way.... so that's what it was doing. And the market really didn't show any significant selling at all...So we can stay in the trade. I find these harder trades to stay in personally. But sometimes it pays to just stay in the market a little bit longer even when it's not as convincing as you would like it to be that it will stay trading in the direction that it is trading at this time when you're not enthusiastic about the price action. When the market was grinding higher... there really was no evidence if the sellers were pushing it lower.... so stay with the trade. This kind of price action and the price action.
KC1!6.7.23 This video is about the coffee market.... with a focus on Probabilities as the markets moving higher and lower.... from my perspective. This is not a science.... it's not perfect... but it helps you manage your expectations more effectively based on market behavior and patterns.
Potential Selling Scenario for COFFEEExpecting bearishness for coffee the next weeks because of the seasonality, and market structure of the coffee futures chart
GOLD5.30.23 This is a follow-up on gold. When it was near the bottom it gave a buy signal and it has moved $4,000 higher. so far it is a profitable trade. life is complicated for me because I want to buy gold if it makes a new low so that I can get a better price. The market can certainly move higher and make new highs from here... and if I don't buy the physical metals then it ends up I'll pay more money for that decision. On the other hand the market is approaching the 382 there are sellers that have gap this market lower and the buyers have not yet Tested those areas.... and if we can find a two-bar reversal or some indicator that the Market's going to at least temporarily move lower, That would give some Reassurance that we're not completely in trouble.
One more look at last night's performance5.22.23 I really did a terrible job last night.... it shouldn't have happened. This video will clean up some basic Things that you need to look for... the first being that you must know where the buyers and the sellers are. You want to short when you're approaching the sellers, But sometimes this is very difficult to do because you might think you're selling into very bullish price action and that you're going to get stopped out if you take a short. This is an issue but you will figure it out as long as you understand these issues. When you take a trade to go long... and the market is trading lower to support....i.e. you want to look for buyers figure this out. The same is true when you were shorting the market Looking for sellers to move the market lower. If you do this kind of trading you have a much higher chance of getting into the market that will trade in your direction because of those buyers that will step into the market after your entry... and so the market will not likely stop you out even though it may only go up a little bit and then trade lower. The idea is to pick Trade location that's more likely than not to at least go in your direction for a while.... it makes life a lot easier.
KC1!5.15.23 This video focuses on coffee. It has some great examples of market action that could be misinterpreted...But you're going to do okay if you're careful. Today's opening price gave a great Profitable Long trade.... but if all you were thinking is that the market was that a support area and it's a two bar reversal to go long... that's all you needed to think and trade... and the market did the rest. I know some people are trading coffee so I'm hoping that they take a look at this today.... and for people who don't trade coffee the way to handle this Market is the same when markets run stops and find a support and then give you a reversal pattern that will take good care of you... and it will never hit your stop.
KC1!5.7.23 This is a review of the coffee market which is approaching A potential reversal area because it's coming close to a bearish gap lower. Really what you have to do Is watch the market when it's trading later today on Sunday or Monday when the volume of trade will be significant. I spent A good bit of time on this video to show you where there might be the potential of important Reversals if the market manages to trade higher to the 618 Retracement...This is interesting but not relevant to a trade ...if the market reaches this level.
Bobby's homework assignment part 15.5.23 We looked at gold that had a breakout higher Earlier in the week but then it corrected, And we were able to speculate that we could draw a range box on the highest bar once the market corrected and went back to where it had gapped higher. If you look at the video you'll see what I mean. The significance is that I estimated what the range Box should be by the end of that bar. Wrench boxes are great, But to get the most utility out of them you need to know what they look like before they're obviously arranged box. There is always Going to be A component of Doubt on any decision that you make... including the decision that the Market's going to range when it looks like it's trending.... but knowing how markets move and correct you make decisions based on the probability,And whatever your decision is to enter the market you package that decision with a small stop in case you're wrong. It is not an easy way to trade until you test it... paper trade it. Don't ever take trading advice from somebody you don't know and haven't followed.... this means that you're making trading decisions from somebody you don't know.... Traders do this all the time and they lose money. And then they're angry when they lose money that they were given Losing information when in fact they took a trade Trying not to take responsibility to find opportunity and manage the risk.... everything about this Is a losing strategy. We talked about a long trade that was initiated yesterday on the coffee contract.I'm going to be home
Bobby's Homework Assignment5.4.23 I decided to do a hypothetical exercise on the coffee chart as if we were Taking trade signals the last 4 days Based on gaps and reversal areas.... to give you a perspective of how much money you could possibly make in this market if you Took only two Trades even though you could have had up the four trades in the same. Of time. Personally I don't want to reverse Trades every Reversal pattern... it's too much work for me and too much time,,,, but it is easy to see the reversals if you know to look for them.
Oil Tesla4.28.23 I think oil Is going higher and that you could enter the market with a small stop... the video gives more detail. Tesla Completed A gartly pattern and an ABCD pattern.... it actually opened at the low yesterday and then proceeded to move higher. Obviously in retrospect that should have been a two bar reversal and a long trade at the low. You might wait for a small correction lower and then consider a long trade thinking that the Market's not going to make a new low but it'll trade lower to your stop Reducing your risk. I didn't really go into much detail in the video about that. the commodity that I want to focus on Is coffee.... it is a great exercise in actively Observing the market to determine where buyers and sellers are likely to be.... with a market that offers significant profits to buyers and sellers because it has enough volatility and price action for both sides of the market. I am sure for the first 30 years that I fought this kind of price action because I didn't want to factor in the Sellers when I wanted to be long because it was a threat to my trade. And of course it works the other way if I'm a seller. That Is the Trader's problem...It's about Dysfunctional thinking on the part of the trader. Do you want to drive safely, you want to look left and right. If you want to trade safely, you want to look up and down. (and Left and right).
Bobby's Homework Assignment4.27.23 This video Is an analysis of coffee, but it is really an analysis of price action and reversal patterns for buyers and sellers. this market services buyers and sellers. The good buyers and the good sellers will make money in this market, and if you take a look at Trades that could have been taken if you could find the proper trade location... it might even be surprising how profitable these markets can be for both the buyers and the sellers. The biggest problem I had with my Trading was that I didn't want to accept that realization that something was going on with the market That was going to interrupt my trade and cost me money. Usually when this happens... for most Traders including myself it was very difficult to acknowledge it and then study the situation while the market was proceeding to lose me money because something had changed in the market. and this went on for a long time until I found a very simple solution: Stop day trading for a few years and figure out what the heck was going on... without the stress of losing money in the interim. Not only did I learn more, but I learned that the market will change direction and that it doesn't have to hurt me so consistently if I'm willing to change my paradigm once I understand how markets move before I lose my money. When you're losing money, the brain Stops working and it is nearly impossible to think with the same clarity that is needed to be profitable.... but this doesn't happen until you're in a state of mind that is more objective and is WILLING To observe... and that is NOT when you are losing money.
Silver Coffee4.26.23 This video looks at silver and coffee Looking at trend lines on the silver market and price action and GAP relationships on the coffee market.
Bobby's Homework Assignment4.25.23 KC1! In this video I use coffee as the example to talk about gap relationships if it will help you determine where the buyers and the sellers are... and where the market may reverse.It is extremely helpful in making trade decisions.... before you're in a trade... and after you are in a trade. Once you get it.... you can just see it... and make quick decisions as to whether or not you should act on it. Looking at gaps the way I describe them Shows you where the market might trade for you or against you while you are in a trade. Yes, sometimes it gets a little confusing and you're not sure whether you should take heed...But that is what's required if you want to be a discretionary Trader and improve your chances... In my opinion. Note>I do not have real time data on coffee... so all of my charts on coffee are delayed. Obviously if you're Trading and you want optimal trade location... and these little quirks regarding Gaps and retest of gaps... you need real time data. There are people who make a lot of money without real-time data... but they're not doing to make real time decisions and they make money. If you have the real time data, and you make intraday decisions,This kind of information can help.
