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Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice A FuturesFrozen Concentrate Orange Juice A FuturesFrozen Concentrate Orange Juice A Futures

Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice A Futures

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OJ1! trade ideas

Orange Juice Long BiasFundamentals: Valuation: Undervalued on 10d - 13d - 30d Seasonality: Showing rally until end 27/05/25 on 5y - 10y HOWEVER -- 10y isn't aligned.. COT: The main thing is Users & Producers, They turned bullish sharply in the past few weeks Non-commercials are not yet bullish on the pair, however, it is natural, as they buy into strength and sell into weakness in all markets. Technicals: We have a clear (already mitigated) Demand zone on the weekly. With a great Leg out (empolsive move to the upside)
ICEUS:OJ1!Long
by Nedal13
2
Orange Juice Futures SHORT OPPPennant Breakout resulting in a Bull Flag w/ a Double Top Looking for the gap to fill below 402.00 which also confirms the Double Top and the Bearish Breakdown of the Bull Flag Structure, Conservative Measured move (Patterns Measured Move * Percentage Meeting Target) puts it close to the Demand Line from Feb . 23 2023, marking a 5th touch point. Longer Term lookout ** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE OR TELLING ANYONE TO MAKE ANY TRADES BASED ON MY OWN ANALYSIS, USE YOUR OWN JUDGEMENT **
ICEUS:OJ1!Short
by Siadore_
The Orange Juice Crisis: A Climate-Induced Market ShiftOrange juice prices have hit record highs due to a confluence of climate-related challenges, including extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and altered rainfall patterns. These factors have decimated citrus crops, particularly in key production areas like Florida, leading to significant supply shortages and driving up prices. This crisis underscores the fragility of our food supply and highlights the urgent need for innovative solutions and international cooperation. The orange juice industry faces a severe crisis driven by climate change, leading to soaring prices and dwindling supplies. Extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and altered rainfall patterns have devastated citrus crops, particularly in Florida, the heart of U.S. orange production. This has led to a bidding war for orange juice concentrate, exacerbated by inflationary pressures on fertilizers, pesticides, and labor costs. Globally, major producers like Brazil, Mexico, and Spain also grapple with these climate-induced challenges, resulting in reduced yields and increased vulnerability. The economic toll extends beyond agriculture, affecting jobs and local economies. Addressing climate change is crucial for the industry's future. Investing in research to combat diseases like citrus greening, improving water management practices, and adopting sustainable farming methods are essential steps. Diversifying crops and exploring alternative citrus products could also offer relief. This crisis highlights the fragility of our food supply and the urgent need for global cooperation to ensure the long-term viability of the orange juice market. As climate change continues to impact agricultural production, innovative and sustainable solutions are imperative to stabilize prices and secure the future of this beloved beverage.
ICEUS:OJ1!Long
by signalmastermind
Orange Juice Crisis Prompts Search for Alternative FruitsThe global orange juice industry faces an unprecedented crisis due to bad weather and disease in Brazil, the world's largest orange exporter. Orange juice futures have surged to record highs, nearly doubling in price over the past year. This situation has led manufacturers to explore alternative fruits like mandarins for juice production. Key Points: - Record High Prices: Orange juice futures hit $4.92 a pound, reflecting concerns over supply shortages. - Natural Disasters: A hurricane and cold snap in Florida, along with citrus greening disease, have devastated US orange groves. - Brazil's Struggles: Brazil's orange production has fallen by 25% this year due to adverse weather and disease. - Mandarins as Alternatives: Industry leaders are considering mandarins, which are more resilient to climate change, as a viable alternative for juice production. - Regulatory Challenges: The International Fruit and Vegetable Juice Association is exploring legislative changes to include other citrus fruits in the definition of orange juice. The long-term outlook remains uncertain as the industry adapts to these challenges, potentially leading to higher prices and new juice flavors for consumers.
ICEUS:OJ1!Long
by signalmastermind
OJ - Frozen Orange Juice Is DoneIn my YT Video Analysis I talked about, how OJ is at the Apex and has a high chance to fall down to the Center-Line. On the daily chart (see the zoomed Screenshot), you see how price is struggling to get above the U-MLH. Great signs of weakness. But beware, OJ is super illiquid. This means that this market can get pushed in any direction, in any magnitude. However, it's very cool to observe, how even such over-pumped markets react to my super tools, the Andrews Pitchfork aka. Medianlines. Let's observe how this plays out. We can learn a lot, and use this knowledge in the future for our own trading. As for the Medianline-Framework, price falls down to the Center-Line when traded outside the U-MLH, and then comes back into the Fork. Observation Mode ON! Peace4TheWorld
ICEUS:OJ1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
INFLATION INCOMING - Real world implications (Oranges)Orange Juice is a clean way to define a couple of key things: -- Weather forecasts -- Inflation -- Supply shocks -- Global trade Recently, I've taken note that OJ futures have skyrocketed more than 200% in the last 3 years. I was so surprised in fact, I had to look at it versus other commodities, which have seen a mild bounce (Wheat, Oats). And bigger spikes (Pork, Chicken) during the supply shocks of the pandemic. But OJ keeps bucking the trend! Is this the REAL effect of inflation?
ICEUS:OJ1!Long
by CrosbyVenture
1
INFLATION is coming (Real consumer costs) Orange Juice is a clean way to define a couple of key things: -- Weather forecasts -- Inflation -- Supply shocks -- Global trade Recently, I've taken note that OJ futures have skyrocketed more than 200% in the last 3 years. I was so surprised in fact, I had to look at it versus other commodities, which have seen a mild bounce (Wheat, Oats). And bigger spikes (Pork, Chicken) during the supply shocks of the pandemic. But OJ keeps bucking the trend! Is this the REAL effect of inflation?
ICEUS:OJ1!Long
by CrosbyVenture
GravityHello friends. Orange Juice seems to defy gravity itself. It has pushed up wildly over the past 3 years, nearly reaching a new all-time high. This has created the greatest opportunity to short orange juice since 2016. Let us explain the different elements of our idea. Point 1 - Orange juice has reached a key resistance when measured against money supply inflation Because of innovation, the price of commodities will almost always fall over a long time period when measured against inflation. Orange juice has made no exception to this global rule, having fallen by 85% from 1970 to the present date. That is a yearly return of -1.6%, which should also represent our "innovation factor". In other words, we get 1.6% better at making orange juice every single year. But now it has made a retracement to the normal downtrend, which provides an opportunity for us to short. Here is something to chew on: Despite innovation inevitably increasing in the years between 2004 and 2022, the price of orange juice has risen so much that it currently goes all the way back to the same levels as the lows 18 years ago in 2004. The price rarely retraces this deeply, and whenever it has retraced in this way the price has always made a substantial decline in the following years. To use our innovation factor for this, we could say that we are likely about 1.6 times 18 = 28.8% better at making orange juice, and yet orange juice is trading at the same price. This obviously won't last forever. We should expect a new all-time low in adjusted orange juice prices within a few years if trends continue. Point 2 - Orange Juice deficit is very minimal Yes, we are currently running an orange juice deficit -- but it's a negligible one, and the high price will definitely rectify it in the future. The USDA estimate is that we will have roughly 3% more orange juice consumption than orange juice production for 2022. This only speaks to a short-term lack of orange juice capacity, and the long-term will not look this way. Think about this. Orange prices only rose from $0.79/kilo to $0.93/kilo over the span of 2022 (+17.7%). Yet orange juice futures rose from 140 to 210 over that time period (+50%!!). This massive difference in the price movements is important because it means that orange juice producers are raking in much bigger profits at these prices and are going to expand their production capacity in order to cash in. This expansion of production capacity will mean we see more orange juice supply coming online going into 2023 and beyond. Point 3 - Price-sensitive consumers will not buy at high levels The average orange juice consumer is relatively price-sensitive, especially during a recession. They may view orange juice as a good breakfast option at a low price, but they will no longer be as willing to purchase orange juice at a high price. What is stopping them from swapping out orange juice for milk, assuming they like milk just as much and milk is also cheaper? Why not swap it out for another kind of juice that hasn't seen this kind of parabolic rise, for that matter? Orange juice consumers are not like gasoline consumers, who MUST have gasoline in order to get to work. Orange juice is an unnecessary luxury. Unnecessary luxuries are the first thing that consumers cut back on when they are laid off from their jobs, and layoffs are expected to increase going into 2023 as the economy worsens. This will weaken the demand for orange juice. If we chart the price of milk futures against the price of orange juice futures, we can indeed see that milk is starting to become cheaper and more attractive. In a more practical sense, Walmarts near me are charging ~2.5 cents per fluid ounce of milk versus 7 cents per fluid ounce of orange juice (prices will vary based on the product, but I am looking at more of a median of all the prices). Final thoughts Orange juice is too expensive. Consumers are going to drink less. Producers are going to make more. Prices are going to fall. Markets are going to heal. They always do.
ICEUS:OJ1!Short
by bowtrix