OJ1! trade ideas
Oranges and the Next Inflation CycleOJ1 Oranges have been building a higher low since spring of 2019 and completed the higher low in the Feb. 2020 crash.
With broad commodities CRB having formed a long-term cycle low in the 1Q2020 and the global economy already heating up and many commodities already breaking out of their multi-year downtrends (Uranium, industrial metals, agriculture), it has become increasingly clear that we are in the next re-flation (growth and inflation) cycle.
a higher low for oranges over a trend duration, at a time when most commodities hit all-time cycle lows, is a more structurally healthy bullish set up than most other commodities.
Gold and silver tend to be the popular way to express a bullish view on inflation, but during times when bond yields are rising with inflation, consumer and industrial commodities tend to outperform the precious metals.
View on Orange Juice (8/12)Bearish Bias.
Waiting for price to retrace before looking for a short trade.
Sl behind swing high.
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation.
I am not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activity
View on Orange Juice (24/10)Approaching towards the end of the fall with about few more weeks to go.
Looking bullish in the underlying product.
possible area price might head towards - 127
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation.
I am not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activity
$OJNY orange juice
Buy now 114
Stop loss 101.10
Targets
121.8
128.4
132.6
138.6
Extend targets
145.4
153.2
159.1
172.2
Orange Juice; a (massive) SHORTOne is looking at a Double Top here and probably at the beginning of a massive sell off.
There is also that huge Bat looming above this with a PRZ 50 points lower from here.
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FROZEN ORANGE JUICE LONGThis fib level is interesting. A rise to test resistance seems probable. Proceed with caution (stimulus news pending).
Orange Juice Futures D1 Long (High to Resistance zone)Orange Juice Futures D1 Long (High to Resistance zone)
OJ THE SAFE HAVEN..
PROs:
Seasonally a good month for OJ
Broke through critical resistance at 122.05
Smart money hedgers are net long
Making higher lows on the weekly time frame, from the 6th March
Bearish sentiment amongst small speculators
OJ is in high demand due to COVID
Risk outlook is considered medium at this stage
CONs:
Demand is in a long term decline
Global oversupply of OJ
Negative divergence in play (2)
Highly volatile over the past 3 months (and in general)
Trading below strong overhead supply
Report:
The strong breakout above trendline resistance on the 20th of March 2020 at (1) was your first clue prices would probably head higher after ranging over the past 13 months. However, within a week OJ fell back to retest what is now dual support at (1), which was respected and has since bounced hard creating higher lows on the weekly time frame. The overall strength of this market is questionable as illustrated at (2).
Bottomcatcher’s Opinion: For short term traders a long position could be taken at the 124.00 handle with a stop loss in place at 121.35, and a target set at the 130.00 handle just below strong resistance at (3) and 50% fib level (taken from the highs of July 2018 and the lows of May 2019). For those in it for the long haul, a convincing break above resistance at (3) would be their buy signal with 145s as a first target, and 152s in extension as a second target to watch out for.
OJ Long - Our breakfast favourite a lot of OJ is going to be consumed whilst we stay at home with this COVID situation.
Demand is going up so price is going up
I might be a bit late to this party but let's see, COVID19 situation in USA is just starting and we know Americans like their OJ . #MakeAmericaGreatAgain
Is It Too Late To Buy Orange Juice ?The FCOJ-A futures contract is the world benchmark contract for the global frozen concentrated orange juice market.
Is it too late to buy Orange Juice ? I'll wait for the correction.
Disclaimer:
We are not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature,
and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations.
Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing.
This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
COT orange juice LONG at 95. possible trend reversal long termLong at 65. Commercials been accumulating
March Orange Juice DailyPerfect touchpoints in a descending coil, punctuated by Tuesday's opening volume burst while notching new contract lows and then recovering.
Orange Juice At Lows With Some Hidden DivergenceOrange Juice low on Demand over Supply but on Technical and Seasonality Charts historically, I say we see Price at a Good Buy Price!!!
Orange Juice I have some strong evidence that orange juice has bottomed and we are starting a strong bullish trend, let’ go to the facts. First of all, we have non-commercials for the last 6 weeks taking profits in their shorts and this move has accelerated this week at the point that we got a COT signal to go long. The signal is triggered when the stochastics indicator applied to non-commercials net positions enter an overbought region, this means that they are pushing harder to the long side.
Well from risk-return it completes worth the shot here, if we are wrong the stop loss is very cheap and the price is accumulating for the first time after this massive downtrend.
After a little research in my database, I found two interesting news articles. The first one is from seeking alpha and what got my attention was this:
"In summary, dryness in Brazil will be closely watched by coffee traders in the weeks and months ahead. I believe staying long coffee will be a smart play into October. There are several teleconnections around the globe with respect to ocean temperatures, I watch, that will play a critical role for soybeans (SOYB), coffee, wheat (WEAT), orange juice and other commodities."
And this another of from the economist and my eyes were focused on this:
"But the pact should improve market access for French cheese, Brazilian orange juice, and Argentine fish, as well as car parts made in Europe, which now attract Mercosur tariffs of 14-18%."
Folks, in other words, this profit-taking has a reason, the demand for orange juice is about to increase globally so I conclude that this commodity is mispriced and we can profit from this.
