SB1! trade ideas
SB1! (SUGAR) BULLISHSB1! (SUGAR) is bullish. We are going for the Intermediate 5th of Primary C of the cycle be. For now, the target area is roughly $23.43 to $$24.80 which is 50% and 61.8% of fibo. This is the commodity market and in a commodity market, the 5th wave can be extended. For now invalidation level is $17.60 which is the 4th wave for now.
DISCLOSURE - Please be informed that the information I provide is not a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of my work is for educational purposes only. All labeling and wave count have been done by me manually and I will keep changing according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So don't bias, hope on my trade plans. Try to learn Elliott Wave or other strategies and make your own strategy. Following is not that much easy. I am not responsible for any losses if u took the trade according to my trade plans.
#SB1! #SUGAR
BEARISH ON THE US SUGARBearish clues:
- Triangle , breakdown with a strong bearish candlestick.
- Below the neutrality zone on the Relative Strength Index (RSI < 50).
- Breakdown of the 100 Exponential Moving Average , which was a good support.
- Breakdown of the Modified Pitchfork.
Fundamental news: (from Reuters)
- The supply minister of Egypt released on November 29, 2021 that " sugar reserves were sufficient for 3.5 months ".
- Looking further ahead, Rabobank expects raw sugar to average 20.80 cents in the third quarter of next year as the sugar market records a deficit of 2.3 million tonnes by the end of the 2021/22 season , following a deficit of 1.2 million tonnes in the 2020/21 season.
- Rabobank said ethanol prices will remain elevated on the back of strong global energy prices, tempting cane mills in top producer Brazil to produce more of the biofuel at the expense of sugar.
Objective:
My objective is the Fibonacci retracement level of 50%, at $17.69. Next objective is $16.98: support zone + Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% + range of the Modified Pitchfork
ALWAYS WAIT FOR THE CLOSE OF THE CURRENT CANDLESTICK
Feel free to share, comment and give your opinion if it is constructive ;)
DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice
Sugar (Sugar No. 11 - May 2022) set to continue the trendI firmly believe raw sugar futures are set to continue their upward trend seen for months now. While they have consolidated for a time and recently dipped below temporary support, which could be mistaken for a trend breakout, I believe we are simply seeing a sell-off as a reaction to the futures having floated highly above the trendline for a long time. As pointed out on the chart, the recent sell-off is of a magnitude similar to earlier sell-offs, and furthermore, we are resting firmly on the trendline. However, the risk of a trend breakout is significant and I recommend a tight SL at 18.45. On the other hand, should my hypothesis prove right, enjoy the ride and take profits at your own discretion.
Sugar - SHORT; SELL it here!Sugar will have an awful hard time to go any higher here, climbing into multi-year major resistance. A sustained decline should take Sugar substantially lower into year's end.
Ample grain and bio-fuel stocks are also a prelude to an over-supply imbalance. (Not to mention substantially lower crude oil prices on the horizon.) This is a low-risk spot to initiate a long term SHORT .
Is it a good time to sell some SugarThe buying spree at 17/05 NY open didn't make the market move very much. Instead, it creates volatility in the Sugar market. Therefore, I believe the Bulls are just not there to defend the market and a breakout should occur soon.
Trailing Stops should be used when the price hits 16.62.