Sugar Future's Quarterly Log ChartSugar's rate of change as defined by it's distance from 3 year moving average back at 2016 highs.
No reflation or inflation here. Move along.
#gotsugar #gotsilver #gotgold #fintwit #commodities
SB1! trade ideas
Looking forward to exit sugar soonLast time a double top was the perfect exit, for now i keep trailing the stop below the hourly bar.
Sugar as an Inflation ProxySugar is confidently surging for now into this thin zone toward 20. Consumer inflation will be felt when food prices are soon passed on, similarly with Oil and other commodities. Broad implications economically but when will the true inflationary pressures be communicated?
See my cursive inflationary pressure roadmap for the next 5 years attached. Peace
Traditional|SB1!|Long and shortLong and short SB1!
Activation of the transaction only when the blue zone is fixed/broken.
Working out the support and resistance levels of the consolidation zone.
* Possible closing of a trade before reaching the take/stop zone. The author can close the deal for subjective reasons, this does not completely cancel the idea and is not a call to the same action, you can continue working out the idea according to your data, but without the support of the author.
The "forecast" tool is used for more noticeable display of % (for the place of the usual % scale) of the price change, I do not put the date and time of the transaction, only %.
The breakdown of the upper blue zone - long.
Breakdown of the lower blue zone - short.
Working out the stop when the price returns to the level after activation + fixing in the red zone.
Blue zones - activation zones.
Green zone - take zone.
Red zone - stop zone.
Orange arrows indicate the direction of the take.
Red arrows indicate the direction of the stop.
Priority - The value of the priority parameter implies the author's subjective opinion about the more likely activation zone on this idea, this does not mean that this idea will be 80% activated by this parameter, the purpose of the parameter is to provide for the risk of the inverse of the zone parameter.
Example: "Priority Long: So the author inclines more in the direction of the activation zone open long trades, in this case, when reaching the activation zone in short you should be very careful, because this area may be highly likely to be punched about the breakdown/do not get to take/activate transaction from go to stop."
Please consider this parameter if you use my ideas.
SUM PNL: This parameter displays the total % of all closed ideas of the "new" format (according to the author) for this sector at the time of publication of the idea. The calculation is very "clumsy" just the sum of the profits of all the ideas, based on this indicator, you can more accurately assess the risks when working with my ideas of this sector. I present you the construction of the idea, you can use it yourself as you like based on your subjective view and risks, the calculation of the PNL indicator is carried out only on transactions that the author closed on TV in manual mode or by take.
P.S Please use RM (risk management) and MM (money management) if you decide to use my ideas, there will always be unprofitable ideas, this will definitely happen, the goal of the system is that there will be more profitable ideas at a distance.
Sugar/Inflationary Roadmap for The Next 5 YearsHappy new year folks! Chart originally inspired by Patrick/BadCharts.
I've been committing to price targets (PT/Purple Triangle) lately. I'm happy to publish this incomplete/messy chart in order to bolster my conviction on the macros for the coming 5/10 years and to revisit my predictions in the years to come.
PTs are based on multiple overlapping critical levels mixed with previous price action. Happy to discuss and plan to tighten up with a little more time in future.
My main portfolio is in Au, Ag and U.
Disinflation towards inflationIs this a grey cloud in your mind? It is in mine. Not easy to see how this unfolds.
Looking at sugar for some clues.
SB: sell stop 16.20 SL 17.05 TP1 14.0Price reached bearish turning point from annual cycle while 167d dominant cycle is already bearish. This drop is projected till the end of the 1st decade of March. However, SB should set a long-run top of the year (if not already) prior the end of Feb to start declining till May.
Sugar's Quarterly Line Break ChartSugar still got to move another 40% to prove scary inflation is on the way.
Sugar is a pretty sweet inflation detectorAbout those US inflation rates...
I trust more sugar than anything else and it's leading once again.
Watch gold & silver move if this busts through.
#gotsilver #silver #sugar #gold #fintwit $pslv $gld
Sugar Sell IdeaSugar Sell Idea from an over extension of the buy side liquidity into a consolidation/distribution
Inflation's Rosetta StoneSugar and silver are linked via this common denominator... inflation! Trying to unlock the mysteries of deflation vs inflation narratives. How much more evidence do you need?
NY #11 Front Month Contract continues its uptrendThe recent pullback from 15.50 resistance did shake out some players but the fundamental story remains the same (Lower production on the softs though a risk of Indian Exports continues to hound the market. Actually, buying near the lower end of the channel for the past couple of days with a wide stop and proper sizing would enable a trader to catch and on to it as it attempts to try to breach the 15c level. The next resistance level seen in the chart is around 15.50 and the next would be 16c.
View on Sugar (2/12)Price has rally for sometime.
We have a support that is holding on to the bullish move.
once the support is broken, I am expecting more slide to follow.
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation.
I am not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activity
short from 15.5 15.9 area. 4 to 1 dealwe are in nice uptrend channel, long growth path, strong level - nice short deal with small SL
#Sugar setting up for an explosive move $SB1Sugar looks like a textbook basing out here. What is key now is to get a recoil before the break of 15.50. So far so good. Target price of $24.
Sugar: just some infosHi Guys,
Here some ideas in respect of Sugar. Good, bad, I don't know. I'll let you decide.
Please share your views and comments below.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
PS. The hammer was not a hammer
Cozzamara
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
SBH21 Sell from 15.00 to 12.00Sugar No11 has stalled its uptrend over the last 6 weeks and formed a range bound market between 15.00 and 14.00.
Indian News
The main fundamental reasons for this are the late subsidy announcements from India as they are currently subject to a WTO ruling which started November last year.
"Meanwhile, sugar mills in India have held back exports as they await news on government subsidies. The World Trade Organization (WTO) is expected to rule on the legality of India's subsidies to its sugar exporters sometime this month after Brazil and Australia raised objections to the WTO about the subsidies. The ruling by the WTO has been delayed from July due to the Covid pandemic." because of this many hedge funds took long positions and are now stuck bellow strong resistance hoping on the fact that the WTO will be harsh on India after the pandemic which in my opinion is unlikely. Furthermore India will be desperately trying to gain a favorable ruling as "Monday's data from India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories was negative for sugar as it showed that Indian sugar output as of Nov 5 was up +32.8% y/y at 425,000 MT."
Positioning of Funds and commercials
As of 3Nov, Current commitment of traders sits at:
Commercials - Long / Short
495,848 (+25,068)830,958 (+658)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
332,801 (-25,945)51,419 (+1,136)
Producers - Long / Short
275,512 (+17,740)640,042 (+1,752)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
180,727 (+8,247)151,307 (-175)
Managed Money - Long / Short
272,078 (-17,694)25,828 (-2,047)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
60,723 (-8,251)25,591 (+3,183)
This is the first time since the start of the uptrend in march this year that both manage money and non-commercials have reduced there long position in sugar showing the weakness of the market and the clear uncertainty of the market. Secondly commercials and producers have been hedging there position in favour of a market decline as the market is stalling. This uncertainty has created the opportunity where by most funds and commercials are waiting on the Indian news and to see if India will be allowed to take over the market share that Thailand has lost due to drought.
Brazil
Weather has been harsh in Brazil for the crop in the last 6 weeks "Maxar recently said that Brazil's sugar-growing regions had received only 5%-25% of average rain in the past few months, leaving crops "extremely dry." Also, a La Nina weather pattern could lead to prolonged excessive dryness in Brazil that cuts sugarcane yields." but despite that "Wednesday's data from Unica was bearish for sugar as it showed Brazil's Center-South sugar production in the second half of October rose +14.4 y/y to 1.7373 MMT, with the percentage of cane used for sugar climbing to 43.63% in 2020/21 from 32.02% in 2019/20".
"The International Sugar Organization (ISO) on Sep 1 boosted its global 2020/21 sugar production estimate and increased its global 2020/21 sugar deficit estimate. The ISO projects that global 2020/21 sugar production will increase by +2.3% y/y to 173.5 MMT. The ISO also said the global 2020/21 sugar deficit would widen to -72.000 MT from -14,000 MT in 2019/20. This deficit will be a strong driving force if india, the current holder of most sugar surplus, is able to release there sugar on the note of a possibly favorable WTO rulling.
Conab, Brazil's national crop forecasting agency, boosted its forecast Aug 20 for Brazil's 2020-21 (Apr/Mar) sugar output by +11% to 39.3 million metric tons from May's estimate of 35.3 million MT and 2019-20 production of 29.8 million MT. Conab raised its forecast for Brazil's Center-South 2020-21 sugar output to 35.7 million MT from May's 31.8 million MT. Brazil's sugar mills are expected to divert 46.4% of sugarcane to refined production, up from 34.9% in 2019-20 due to weak ethanol prices and demand.
Currently a break out of the 15.00 resistance would show a change in market opinion and possibly a tighter consolidation before the indian news release.
Whats your thought?
Sugar to fly or rocket?It's happening guys! The inflation cycle has awoken. Quarterly charts showing HUGE underlying moves being baked into existence. TSI and moving averages turning up giving us hope...
The Next Sugar Pop!Check out this point and figure chart for sugar. I have previously posted the INSANE correlation with sugar and gold. Gold leads the way.. and if sugar believes what gold was sniffing.. then it EXPLODES! This is probably the very early stages of this next move up! Enjoy. #inflation #debt #gold #silver $slv $gld #fintwit $sil $silj $gdx $gdxj
Profit taking on Sugar Unlike most stocks and indices, Sugar commodity did not resurrect itself from the March Low but rather in the month of May this year.
It is now displaying a potential H&S pattern with the left shoulder formed and in the midst of forming the right shoulder. Also, it has reached the resistance at the weekly bearish trend line as well. Will it break out from here?
Possibly, it could continue its bullish stand and ride higher OR have a healthy correction, closing the gap at 13.05 to 13.23 level before making its move higher.
I will wait for the next opportunity to accumulate more. Meanwhile, those who followed my trade call, you may want to consider taking some profits as well.
