SB1! trade ideas
Short-term rally. EntriesI want to return to Sugar. This market doesn’t have a strong setup. However, there is a chance for a short-term trade. The seasonal tendency is to the upside. Besides, we have a divergence in the 4h chart. So, breaking above the trendline can bring us some profits.
Short SugarSugar looks like it is rolling over. If it can decisively push through the 200 week SMA (currently $13.55) I would reconsider. Until then, selling once it reaches $12.39
Obese EU NA MEX populations will fight like for toilet paperHey I'm looking more into those commodities that I understand and had success with rather than popular stocks where I ALWAYS lose (and I do not see what the purpose of short term speculators even is with stocks), or crypto that never does anything because it is dead.
Sugar this year has been doing a daily volume of usually around 2 billion usd if the ICE data is correct. Looking just at the front month it would be about 1.
With all the price controls and governments throwing subsidies at sugar farmers the futures market is only a shadow of its past glory, but the laws of supply & demand did not disappear and it still has a purpose.
At least letting governments know how much purchasing power they will have to steal from their populations to throw at wealthy farmers.
The ICE is the place to find info about sugar 11
www.theice.com
The CME tries to compete, and their site is much better than that thing above ^
They are a good place to look at.
www.cmegroup.com
Here you can find a map differentiating beet & cane producer. It is reather easy: old world christians, muslims, japanese produce beet, rest of the world south of those places makes cane sugar.
www.czarnikow.com
Climate change is surreal humour in a bubble and check weather data for yourself.
www.holiday-weather.com
www.timeanddate.com
en.tutiempo.net
Brazil no rain no rain no rain no rain
India storm storm storm storm
This summer was so cold, did not hear the media, except in august when it was hot for part of it.
Some FUD "Production will go up" "Production dropped" kek, media.
www.financialexpress.com
www.business-standard.com
The addicts will get their fix no matter what it takes no matter the price. Stronger than cocaine.
Also there is something with this time of year and the way the contract works. It's sort of like Oil 😉
Sugar hedgers reach ‘Extreme’Sugar No.11 prices held below the weekly 200 period moving average last week, topping out at 1353.6 (1) as Smart Money Hedgers added to their already large short positions, reaching an extreme (-291797.00 contracts). 50% fib, taken from the Feb highs and April lows of this year junction nicely with rising wedge support at (2), a convincing break below support will most likely see Sugar prices decline further down to the 1130/40 support zone over the short-medium term as a first target to watch out for.
Alternatively, if support holds at (2) the bulls will attempt to recapture 1353.6 followed by 1400.0 and 1420/30s in extension where another good selling opportunity could introduce itself.
Sugar futures (SB1!) - stay short after wave cycle overSugar futures (SB1!) is in 5th of C of Y wave up in double zigzag cycle in 4 hr time frame as WXY. The full cycle is about to over when price makes new high. So wait for it to complete. Go short after confirmatory move down impulse in 10 min time frame with high as stops for bigger down side correction of 5-8 % down move.
US Sugar futures ( SB1!) - stay short for bearish outlookUS Sugar futures ( SB1!) has completed ABC zigzag as the part of Y wave, as mentioned in previous updates. The total sequence is WXY as double zigzag, which is well known in Elliott wave theory and mostly seen in commodities and currencies.
In last updates, we already posted the bull set up for buy a C wave, Now its over.
stay short in B wave up at around 12.73-81 with stops above 12.97 for target range of 12.25 as support zone or lower too.
make sure that B wave is not too sharp before entering the trade set up.
Breakout in sugar futuresVery clean almost perfect breakout. Chart looks perfect, volume is a bit too low. Use caution if you buy here and get out fast if you have to protect yourself.
Getting high on SugarIf the resistance at 12.10 is broken up tonight or this week, then we can expect this sweet commodity to rally higher.
SB: SUGAR TO BUY Sugar to watch this end of June and in July, a hight probability that it will go up, when we will break the 12.25, the next target is 13.00, we can even reach the 13.50 dollars at the end of July
Bullish Cup and Handle on SugarA bullish pattern, a cup and handle, is formed on the Sugar daily chart. Important will be a close above $ 12.30. The first target in the area $ 13.35-13.60, the second one in the area $ 14.40-14.85. The fundamental analysis agrees with the pattern.
SB1! short bounce confirmedOverbought so, retrace on an uptrend.
after short, going long in an option when bouncing on the support line.
Sugar did it!Did a rising correction. Reached the lower line of the rising channel. It is a backtest. Sugar is in the zone of a healthy correction between 0.5 - 0.38 Fibonacci zone. Did a correction type pattern.
I expect to see a downward pressure at least to 10 or more, much more. We will see.
SB1! short on uptrendshort order under low of confirmation candle.
Stochastics show overbought, so short on uptrend.
Sugar No 11 Futures Suggest #BUY POSITION (#Sugar, #trading)Hey, here is my new forecast, and don't forget to follow them because commodities are very useful after the crisis. They are one of the useful and progressive pairs compare with others. Also, they are very useful for long term trading!
I wrote all explantations and some forecast move of this pair I hope you like it. If you have any questions don't hesitate to contact me or you can comment and LIKe this graph too. Thanks and Good Luck
Long $SGG Sugar ETF at 33.50 or 10.30 #Sugar Futures Spot PriceSugar and Brazil Relationship:
Since Brazil has been the leading producer of sugarcane in the world, the value of the Brazilian Real plays a significant role in the price of sugar futures. Weakness in the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar encourages Brazil's sugar producers to boost exports. The logic is that a lower Brazilian Real incentivizes Brazilian farmers to produce more sugar to export sell for US Dollars. However, it's likely that the Brazil Real will appreciate against U.S Dollar over the next couple months based on technical analysis and possible economic intervention from the Brazilian Government.
- U.S. Dollar/Brazil Real pairing or BRB index showing many downside trend change signals here such as bearish RSI divergence since early March on Daily chart. Weekly chart showing RSI and MACD curling down from record highs with Momentum also curling down but after a double test of highs
Growing Ethanol Demand:
In July 2019, India announced they will work with Brazil on ethanol production. Using more cane in India to produce ethanol, instead of sugar, could reduce the global supply of the sweetener. 32M sugarcane could be used to produce ethanol and electricity instead of sugar in the next year. The joint venture, named BP Bunge Bioenergia, will manage 11 cane processing plants in Brazil with capacity to crush 32 million tonnes of cane per year
- Higher crude oil/gasoline prices benefit ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar production.
- India and many other countries are boosting ethanol output for sanitisers on coronavirus pandemic
Supply Curbs:
In July 2019, India, the second largest producer of sugarcane, announced they will create a buffer stock of 4 million MT of sugar for 1-year starting Aug 1 in an attempt to limit supply and support domestic sugar prices. Also, further supply disruptions are expected in India due to Coronavirus Lockdown.
- The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) reported Wednesday that sugar production in India dropped sharply by -22% y/y to 23.27 MMT during Oct-Mar
- Sugar production in Thailand, the third largest producer of sugarcane, is expected to fall 28% to a nine-year low of 10.5 million tonnes in the current crop season as drought curtails cane supplies
India Sugar Subsidies:
In August 2019, Brazil, Australia and Guatemala have complained again to the WTO to set up dispute panels to rule on India’s sugar subsidies.
- A change in WTO trade dispute status to Panel Composed on October 28th supports the global price of sugar. This news catalyst increases the possibility of removal of India sugar subsidies. If removed, India sugar stockpiles could fall thus decreasing global supply. Now in April 2020, we can assume the dispute must be in the further into review process
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