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Sugar No. 16 FuturesSugar No. 16 FuturesSugar No. 16 Futures

Sugar No. 16 Futures

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SF1! trade ideas

Sugar Fighting The TrendlineOctober Sugar has been climbing off the August 1st lows after the collapse we saw from July 18th highs near the 19.50 level. Overall, the market has been trending lower with lower highs and lower lows and has pivoted to the downside again after testing strong resistance near the 200-day moving average and the .382 retracement level. There is also a nice trend line trending back to January of 2022, and we are back trading below that level again. To the downside, there is strong support near the 17.40 level, and a close below here could be a catalyst for sellers, and the bulls will look for a close back above the trendline to invite buyers.
ICEUS:SBV2022
by Ryan_Gorman
Potential Bearish ContinuationPreferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and in a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 18.42 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection to the 1st support at 17.58 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and horizontal swing low. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and rise to the 1st resistance at 18.96 at the swing high in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
ICEUS:SB1!Short
by Rockqet
Potential for Bearish ContinuationTitle: SUGAR NO.11 (SB1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type : Bearish Momentum Resistance : 18.96 Pivot: 18.42 Support : 17.58 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and in a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 18.42 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection to the 1st support at 17.58 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and horizontal swing low. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and rise to the 1st resistance at 18.96 at the swing high in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: no major news
ICEUS:SB1!Short
by Genesiv
Sugar Testing Strong Technical LevelsOctober Sugar is testing some strong technical points after being in a downtrend the past few weeks, following the negative outlook of outside markets. Looking back to July of 2021, there is strong trendline support the market has been able to hold, and a break below here could be a catalyst for added selling. With India reporting a cut in exports for the year from 10 million tonnes to 6-7 million tonnes, and the relative strength index nearing oversold territory, there could be an opportunity for Sugar to breakout to the upside toward the technically and psychologically significant 18.99-19.06 resistance level.
ICEUS:SBV2022
by Ryan_Gorman
1
Potential Bearish DropOn the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and in a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 18.40 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection to the 1st support at 17.59 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and horizontal swing low. Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and rise to the 1st resistance at 18.95 at the swing high in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
ICEUS:SB1!Short
by Rockqet
July 22' Sugar Futures Fibonacci Retracement Technical AnalysisDrawing a Fibonacci Retracement from the low of 17.36 made on Feb 3, to the high of 20.46 made on April 13, we have retraced 61.8% of the up move. 18.54 is that level, which was also the low of the day yesterday, May 4, 2022. This is the line in the sand for bulls, but considering it held, and we are about to poke our head out above the Ichimoku Cloud, the odds are in their favor. 18.44 was the low of the day Mar 16, and a close below this level can take the market south to the ~18.00 level. Longs have a good risk/reward trade here, with stop levels positioned below 18.44. Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
ICEUS:SBN2022Long
by Paul_Wankmueller
🍭Sugar fever! Top of the trend ?● Sugar #11 - ICE (SB.F) 🕐 TF: 30D Fig.1 USX lb (pound) In Figure 1 , you can see the wave count from January 2021 . A continuation of the upward correction Ⓑ with the target zone 18.04-21.27 was predicted. At the moment, the set goal has been achieved, the corrective wave looks completed. The probability of resuming the decline by the final impulse Ⓒ of e of (IV) is high. _______________________________________ ● SUGARUSD - OANDA 🕐 TF: 1D Fig.2 An alternative wave count is marked in black, in which the minimum of 2020 , the level of 0.9051 , corresponds to the top of the supercycle (IV) . This counting option will become more relevant if the subsequent series of ascending zigzags, which at this stage is marked as (W)-(X)-(Y) of Ⓑ , takes the form of a diagonal . _______________________________________ ● SUGARUSD - OANDA 🕐 TF: 4h Fig.3 Provided that waves (1)-(2) are formed as part of the emerging bearish trend, the first of which goes beyond the top (X) and consolidates under the lower border of the rising channel, there will be a good prospect for a short position. _______________________________________ ❗ Disclaimer: — The owner of the TradeWaves-EWA © community is not responsible and has no direct or indirect obligations to the User/Customer in connection with any possible losses or financial damages related to any content of this community.
ICEUS:SB1!Short
by TradeWaves-EWA
Sugar Futures ( SB1!), H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType: Bullish Rise Resistance: 19.37 Pivot: 18.98 Support : 18.84 Preferred case: We are expecting the price to potentially rise from our pivot level of 18.98 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st resistance level of 19.37 which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Alternative scenario: Otherwise, the price might break our pivot structure and trigger a dip to the 1st support level of 18.84 which is in line with previous graphical swing low support. Fundamentals: No major news.
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by Genesiv
Sugar Futures ( SB1!), H1 Potential for Bullish BounceType: Bullish Bounce Resistance: 19.25 Pivot: 18.91 Support: 18.53 Preferred case: Price is moving nearer to the pivot level. We are expecting the price to potentially bounce off from our pivot level of 18.91 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance level of 19.25 which is in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Alternative scenario: Otherwise, the price might break our pivot structure and trigger a dip to the 1st support level of 18.53 in line with a horizontal swing low support. Fundamentals: No major news.
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by Genesiv
July 22' Sugar #11 Futures Technical Analysis Bearish CaseGoing back to November 18, 2021, July 22’ Sugar was in a downtrend, which was broken on Mar 1, 2022 with a close of 18.12. This began a new Primary uptrend, remaining intact until April 20, 2022. Even though this trendline was broken with conviction (closing on the lows of the day April 20), the market rallied on April 21, closing at 19.81 (6 ticks from the high). This close touched that broken trendline, but this time, from the opposite side! More importantly for April 21, the market bounced off 19.49 (low of the day), which was previous major resistance (Pink Line Mar 7-10). Previous resistance tends to become support when a market is in an uptrend. Friday, April 22 brought a solid down day, taking out not only the 19.50 level, but closing below the first major Fibonacci Level (.382) of 19.29. This day brought the most volume (78.31k contracts) since April 13. April 13 was the contract high yet closed the day forming a Gravestone Doji Top. Moving onto technical indicators, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is currently below its 9 EMA (bearish), and below levels not seen since Mar 18 (Sugar had a high of 18.88 that day, well below where we are trading today!). This is considered Negative Divergence, as Sugar is trading higher today, then the last time period when MACD was at these levels. Bearish Case: Up trendline on a Daily chart that is broken. Daily Gravestone Doji Top completed on the contract high. Negative MACD divergence. Currently trading below the .382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous trendline. 18.92 (50% retracement level) is very likely to be seen sooner than later. One thing to keep in mind is that 19.50 could be revisited, yet this time acting as resistance. If 19.50 is revisited, and remains intact as resistance, a close below 19.17 in needed as confirmation to continue lower. -Paul Wankmueller CMT
ICEUS:SBN2022Short
by Paul_Wankmueller