#Sugar setting up for an explosive move $SB1Sugar looks like a textbook basing out here. What is key now is to get a recoil before the break of 15.50. So far so good. Target price of $24.
SF1! trade ideas
Sugar: just some infosHi Guys,
Here some ideas in respect of Sugar. Good, bad, I don't know. I'll let you decide.
Please share your views and comments below.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
PS. The hammer was not a hammer
Cozzamara
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
SBH21 Sell from 15.00 to 12.00Sugar No11 has stalled its uptrend over the last 6 weeks and formed a range bound market between 15.00 and 14.00.
Indian News
The main fundamental reasons for this are the late subsidy announcements from India as they are currently subject to a WTO ruling which started November last year.
"Meanwhile, sugar mills in India have held back exports as they await news on government subsidies. The World Trade Organization (WTO) is expected to rule on the legality of India's subsidies to its sugar exporters sometime this month after Brazil and Australia raised objections to the WTO about the subsidies. The ruling by the WTO has been delayed from July due to the Covid pandemic." because of this many hedge funds took long positions and are now stuck bellow strong resistance hoping on the fact that the WTO will be harsh on India after the pandemic which in my opinion is unlikely. Furthermore India will be desperately trying to gain a favorable ruling as "Monday's data from India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories was negative for sugar as it showed that Indian sugar output as of Nov 5 was up +32.8% y/y at 425,000 MT."
Positioning of Funds and commercials
As of 3Nov, Current commitment of traders sits at:
Commercials - Long / Short
495,848 (+25,068)830,958 (+658)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
332,801 (-25,945)51,419 (+1,136)
Producers - Long / Short
275,512 (+17,740)640,042 (+1,752)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
180,727 (+8,247)151,307 (-175)
Managed Money - Long / Short
272,078 (-17,694)25,828 (-2,047)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
60,723 (-8,251)25,591 (+3,183)
This is the first time since the start of the uptrend in march this year that both manage money and non-commercials have reduced there long position in sugar showing the weakness of the market and the clear uncertainty of the market. Secondly commercials and producers have been hedging there position in favour of a market decline as the market is stalling. This uncertainty has created the opportunity where by most funds and commercials are waiting on the Indian news and to see if India will be allowed to take over the market share that Thailand has lost due to drought.
Brazil
Weather has been harsh in Brazil for the crop in the last 6 weeks "Maxar recently said that Brazil's sugar-growing regions had received only 5%-25% of average rain in the past few months, leaving crops "extremely dry." Also, a La Nina weather pattern could lead to prolonged excessive dryness in Brazil that cuts sugarcane yields." but despite that "Wednesday's data from Unica was bearish for sugar as it showed Brazil's Center-South sugar production in the second half of October rose +14.4 y/y to 1.7373 MMT, with the percentage of cane used for sugar climbing to 43.63% in 2020/21 from 32.02% in 2019/20".
"The International Sugar Organization (ISO) on Sep 1 boosted its global 2020/21 sugar production estimate and increased its global 2020/21 sugar deficit estimate. The ISO projects that global 2020/21 sugar production will increase by +2.3% y/y to 173.5 MMT. The ISO also said the global 2020/21 sugar deficit would widen to -72.000 MT from -14,000 MT in 2019/20. This deficit will be a strong driving force if india, the current holder of most sugar surplus, is able to release there sugar on the note of a possibly favorable WTO rulling.
Conab, Brazil's national crop forecasting agency, boosted its forecast Aug 20 for Brazil's 2020-21 (Apr/Mar) sugar output by +11% to 39.3 million metric tons from May's estimate of 35.3 million MT and 2019-20 production of 29.8 million MT. Conab raised its forecast for Brazil's Center-South 2020-21 sugar output to 35.7 million MT from May's 31.8 million MT. Brazil's sugar mills are expected to divert 46.4% of sugarcane to refined production, up from 34.9% in 2019-20 due to weak ethanol prices and demand.
Currently a break out of the 15.00 resistance would show a change in market opinion and possibly a tighter consolidation before the indian news release.
Whats your thought?
Sugar to fly or rocket?It's happening guys! The inflation cycle has awoken. Quarterly charts showing HUGE underlying moves being baked into existence. TSI and moving averages turning up giving us hope...
The Next Sugar Pop!Check out this point and figure chart for sugar. I have previously posted the INSANE correlation with sugar and gold. Gold leads the way.. and if sugar believes what gold was sniffing.. then it EXPLODES! This is probably the very early stages of this next move up! Enjoy. #inflation #debt #gold #silver $slv $gld #fintwit $sil $silj $gdx $gdxj
Profit taking on Sugar Unlike most stocks and indices, Sugar commodity did not resurrect itself from the March Low but rather in the month of May this year.
It is now displaying a potential H&S pattern with the left shoulder formed and in the midst of forming the right shoulder. Also, it has reached the resistance at the weekly bearish trend line as well. Will it break out from here?
Possibly, it could continue its bullish stand and ride higher OR have a healthy correction, closing the gap at 13.05 to 13.23 level before making its move higher.
I will wait for the next opportunity to accumulate more. Meanwhile, those who followed my trade call, you may want to consider taking some profits as well.
Short-term rally. EntriesI want to return to Sugar. This market doesn’t have a strong setup. However, there is a chance for a short-term trade. The seasonal tendency is to the upside. Besides, we have a divergence in the 4h chart. So, breaking above the trendline can bring us some profits.
Short SugarSugar looks like it is rolling over. If it can decisively push through the 200 week SMA (currently $13.55) I would reconsider. Until then, selling once it reaches $12.39
Obese EU NA MEX populations will fight like for toilet paperHey I'm looking more into those commodities that I understand and had success with rather than popular stocks where I ALWAYS lose (and I do not see what the purpose of short term speculators even is with stocks), or crypto that never does anything because it is dead.
Sugar this year has been doing a daily volume of usually around 2 billion usd if the ICE data is correct. Looking just at the front month it would be about 1.
With all the price controls and governments throwing subsidies at sugar farmers the futures market is only a shadow of its past glory, but the laws of supply & demand did not disappear and it still has a purpose.
At least letting governments know how much purchasing power they will have to steal from their populations to throw at wealthy farmers.
The ICE is the place to find info about sugar 11
www.theice.com
The CME tries to compete, and their site is much better than that thing above ^
They are a good place to look at.
www.cmegroup.com
Here you can find a map differentiating beet & cane producer. It is reather easy: old world christians, muslims, japanese produce beet, rest of the world south of those places makes cane sugar.
www.czarnikow.com
Climate change is surreal humour in a bubble and check weather data for yourself.
www.holiday-weather.com
www.timeanddate.com
en.tutiempo.net
Brazil no rain no rain no rain no rain
India storm storm storm storm
This summer was so cold, did not hear the media, except in august when it was hot for part of it.
Some FUD "Production will go up" "Production dropped" kek, media.
www.financialexpress.com
www.business-standard.com
The addicts will get their fix no matter what it takes no matter the price. Stronger than cocaine.
Also there is something with this time of year and the way the contract works. It's sort of like Oil 😉
Sugar hedgers reach ‘Extreme’Sugar No.11 prices held below the weekly 200 period moving average last week, topping out at 1353.6 (1) as Smart Money Hedgers added to their already large short positions, reaching an extreme (-291797.00 contracts). 50% fib, taken from the Feb highs and April lows of this year junction nicely with rising wedge support at (2), a convincing break below support will most likely see Sugar prices decline further down to the 1130/40 support zone over the short-medium term as a first target to watch out for.
Alternatively, if support holds at (2) the bulls will attempt to recapture 1353.6 followed by 1400.0 and 1420/30s in extension where another good selling opportunity could introduce itself.
Sugar futures (SB1!) - stay short after wave cycle overSugar futures (SB1!) is in 5th of C of Y wave up in double zigzag cycle in 4 hr time frame as WXY. The full cycle is about to over when price makes new high. So wait for it to complete. Go short after confirmatory move down impulse in 10 min time frame with high as stops for bigger down side correction of 5-8 % down move.
US Sugar futures ( SB1!) - stay short for bearish outlookUS Sugar futures ( SB1!) has completed ABC zigzag as the part of Y wave, as mentioned in previous updates. The total sequence is WXY as double zigzag, which is well known in Elliott wave theory and mostly seen in commodities and currencies.
In last updates, we already posted the bull set up for buy a C wave, Now its over.
stay short in B wave up at around 12.73-81 with stops above 12.97 for target range of 12.25 as support zone or lower too.
make sure that B wave is not too sharp before entering the trade set up.
Breakout in sugar futuresVery clean almost perfect breakout. Chart looks perfect, volume is a bit too low. Use caution if you buy here and get out fast if you have to protect yourself.
Getting high on SugarIf the resistance at 12.10 is broken up tonight or this week, then we can expect this sweet commodity to rally higher.
SB: SUGAR TO BUY Sugar to watch this end of June and in July, a hight probability that it will go up, when we will break the 12.25, the next target is 13.00, we can even reach the 13.50 dollars at the end of July
