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2024-07-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Strong day by the bears which was just a healthy pullback on a higher time frame. For bears to do some actual damage they need to print strongly below 18670 again. A measured move down would lead to 18570ish. Since bulls and bears have valid arguments here, I expect more sideways movement until we get another breakout above or below. No opinion on who wins it. Bullish above 18800, bearish below 18670. current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle) key levels: small range 18500 / 18900 bull case: Bulls see today as a pullback to the 4h 20ema and want to print a new ath while they have the momentum and trading above the higher tf ema. They also closed the market above the breakout price 18722, which confirms the bullishness, if we rally from here again. Invalidation is below 18670. bear case: In my weekly post I wrote that buying above 18800 is bad not matter how you look at it and bulls got another big rejection. The market now has formed a broad bull channel where the support line is around 18530, so another 170 points lower and coincidentally it’s also where the daily 20ema is. Enough reasons to have a stronger argument for another leg down by the bears. Invalidation is above 18800. short term: Bearish until we hit the daily ema or at least 18570. Invalid above 18800 or strong close above the 1h 20ema. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. trade of the day: buying the double bottom with y close
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. *KEY Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below) Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively. Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold). --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis Germany 40 is pushing the upper boundary of its sideways trend, having broken out of a tight sideways consolidation, with the price increasing to 18,710, now above the VWAP of 18,349. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 17,976 and 18,711, respectively. The RSI has increased to 61, indicating rising momentum. UK 100 remains in a neutral sideways trend, with the price stuck in the middle of a tight range, just above the VWAP of 8,207. Support has adjusted to 8,129, while resistance has increased to 8,285. The RSI is at 52, reflecting a slight increase in momentum. Wall Street has entered a new bullish trend and remains below the May peak, with the price recently increasing to 40,156, now above the VWAP of 39,379. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 38,697 and 40,061, respectively. The RSI has increased to 75, signaling strong bullish momentum compared to the previous report. Brent Crude remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase albeit with a downturn in the last few days to just above the VWAP of 85.33. Support has adjusted higher to 83.39, while resistance has increased to 87.27. The RSI has turned lower to 47, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum. Gold remains in a sideways trend but has just broken the June peak, with the price recently increasing to 2,409, now around the previous VWAP of 2,354. Support has adjusted higher to 2,282, while resistance has increased to 2,426. The RSI has strengthened to 63, indicating the potential beginnings of a new period of higher momentum. EUR/USD has broken out from its previous downtrend but the new uptrend needs to take out the June high to be sustainable. It is now well above the VWAP of 1.0783. Support has adjusted higher to 1.0637, while resistance has increased to 1.0929. The RSI has increased to 67, indicating a reduction in bearish pressure. GBP/USD remains officially in a neutral trend but the recent breakout suggests a new uptrend is emerging, with the price increasing to 1.29862, well above the VWAP of 1.2760. Support has adjusted upwards to 1.2514, and resistance has increased to 1.3006. The RSI has increased to 74, indicating fresh bullish momentum to sustain a possible new uptrend. USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend and near multi-decade highs and remains within a corrective phase just above the VWAP, with the price near 157.81. Support has adjusted higher to 157.80, while resistance has increased to 162.70. The RSI has decreased to 38, reflecting a reduction in bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex
DAX Sell opportunity at the top of this pattern.DAX (FDAX1!) has been following our May 17 (see chart below) projected path very closely and as mentioned, it has been a repeat of the May - July 2023 Megaphone consolidation so far: The price is back above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again and we have adjusted the Megaphone to the wider price-action that was given, in contrast to the 2023 one. As a result, we are expecting the index to get rejected around the top of the Megaphone and the long-term Channel Up. That will be our next short-term sell opportunity, targeting 18000 (the June 14 Low), which by the time of the rejection should be very close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the untested long-term Support level since November 15 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by TradingShot
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CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by Thief_Trader
#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: We got the breakout to the upside, then the downside and another upside breakout again. Clearly not the continuation of a strong bull trend but a leg inside the trading range. Friday’s bull bar is a bad buy going into next week, which raises the odds of market moving sideways to down. Two bull wedges on the daily chart and I slightly favor the bears to break to the downside at least to the daily ema 18460. Weekly tf gives head & shoulders vibe but as long as market is staying above the weekly 20ema at 18200, it’s neutral inside the given key level. comment: Big down, bigger up. Again. High was high enough to qualify as another double top but the high also undershot the bull wedge resistance line. Bulls have not been able to print more then 3 consecutive bull bars since May. Why would they now? Bulls bought dips and I doubt they want to buy above 18800 all of a sudden. Odds favor the bears to trade to the bull channel support around 18500 over the next 1-2 days. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged key levels: small range 18500 / 18900 bull case: Bulls want to stay inside the bull wedges and break above them to retest the ath 19006. They are making higher highs and higher lows and are above all important ema. Above is from last Sunday and still valid. As long as bulls trade above the daily 20ema and inside the bull channel/exp triangle/wedge (yes all apply), it’s bullish. Problem with the bull case is, do you really want to buy above 18800? Market knows only rejections above this price so no matter how you put it, new longs here are bad. Can you buy intraday dips at support for scalps? Absolutely. Invalidation is below 18360. bear case: Bears are at the exact same spot as last Sunday but just a tat higher. They want a big reversal again at multiple resistance above 18800. They also see all the rejections from the past months at this level and shorting here has been very profitable. They also know it’s a bad buy for the bulls up here. Odds clearly favor them to trade back to at least 18600 but we will probably see 18500 early next week. Invalidation is above 18900. Market was rejected twice here on Friday and reversed. Bears do not want to see the market testing that price again or they will probably give up. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Higher highs, lower lows. Expanding triangle, form of trading range. 50% pb is 18439 and if bulls do not rally strongly on Monday, I will look for weakness and a pullback to 18450 or lower. → Last Sunday we traded 18666 and now we are at 18857. High of the week was 18927 and the low was 18362. Outlook was ok. I said we test back down and we did even 100 points lower than I thought. Also said bulls were in control above all ema. I absolutely did not think bulls can do 18900+ again but here we are. short term: Bearish at least to 18500. It’s 50/50 if bulls can do a higher high or will only print lower highs from here so I’m not into guessing. Looking for early weakness and then at 18500 absolutely neutral and let the market decide where it wants to go next. Any bad Dax earnings next week will probably flush it below 18500 again. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Chart update: Nope.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
DAX - OUTLOOK 13 JUL 2024Monthly 2022 High Broken Price In Weekly Trendline Range Moving Upside Daily Forming A Series Of Higher Highs And Higher Lows. April 2024 To Present Has Been Some Sort Of Range On Daily Demand Zone And 4Hr Supply Zone 4Hr Trendline Upwards (2 Touch Holding) 4Hr Channel Also Approaching 4Hr Supply 4Hr Support Now Resistance Count A Total Of 7 Touches. Very Strong Support. Dax Is Bullish On Higher Timeframes So Primarily Looking For Bullish Positions Only Scenario One - Price Touches 4Hr Supply = Looking For Aggressive Short Into Our 4H (7 Touch Support) 1Hr Short = Aggressive 15M Short = Very Aggressive. Scenario Two - Price Breaks Through 4Hr Supply And Re-Test = Load Up And Enter Buy Position Swing Trade Targeting The Top Of The Weekly Trendline 1Hr Long = Conservative 15M Long = Aggressive
XETR:DAXLong
by RonaldRayForeX
DAX H4 | Approaching multi-swing-high resistanceDAX (GER30) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 18,636.87 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 18,800.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 18,440.29 which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
DAX boosted by strong resultsThe German stock market closed with gains on Thursday with +0.72% and has continued its opening with +0.3%. The best stock of yesterday's session was Sartorius AG VZO ON which reached €243.40/ac. at the close, followed by RWE AG ST ON €34.03/ac. and Vovonia SE €29.19/ac. The worst performers were Airbus Group SE closing at €131.96, Deutsche Bank AG NA ON at €15.32/ac. MTU Aero Engines NA ON €245.02. Overall the bullish stocks played a predominant role outperforming the bearish ones 388 to 214, closing 31 unchanged. The variation since January 1 is +10.99% and for now industrials, technology, consumer cyclicals, healthcare, financials, commodities are in positive, while non-cyclicals, real estate, energy, utilities are down. If we look at the ECB's interest in trying to relax rate policies this has been clearly reflected in the DAX (Ticker AT: Ger40) the biggest beneficiary of such policies in Europe. On the chart we can currently see a progressive climb since June 14 in the index looking for a recovery towards the highs. The range trend taken since the beginning of the year continues to be respected. It remains to be seen whether monetary policy will be supportive after the summer, but for the time being the Frankfurt spread is in the 18,600 point zone and with a trading bell shape that heavily weights the 18,000 point zone and an RSI with buy exhaustion signals at 72.20%. It would not be unusual to see a return to the mean before the end of the summer. Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
GShort
by ActivTrades