DE30 trade ideas
2024-07-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes mostly had big ups and big downs today. DJI and Russel are pretty wild. Dax puked hard, which I probably announced too many times by now but yeah. 18000 soon.
Nasdaq: Refuses to go down. Every 1h bear bar has a big tail below, means bulls are in max euphoria and buying every dip, every tick. Bottom of the bull channel had 3 3 touches and we can probably expect another test of the highs tomorrow. Can be higher, lower or an exact double top, no never now in advance and it does not matter because you trade them the same. Trading range 20570 - 20770. Peak bubble.
Commodities - Gold support at 2355 held again but lower highs. Give it 1-2 more days until the next breakout and my money is on the bears. Will see 2300 again soon.
Oil mostly sideways today, big support above 81 but still lower lows and lower highs. I expect a dead cat bounce as laid out in my weekly update. Will print below 80 this or next week.
Bitcoin - W4 going sideways with big swings. Decent two legged pullback on the daily chart and could break down again soon but since market went sideways for one week during W2, we can expect a bit more sideways. Small swing short currently after taking big profits from the previous down to 54000. 57855 entry, sl 58800.
dax
comment:
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 18580 - 18800
bull case: Bulls tried to print above 18650 4 times on Monday and today and since market found not enough buyers, we tested lower. Bulls gave up below 18500 once market went there the third time today. Bulls are still in a higher low on the daily chart but this bear bar today was the final nail imo.
Invalidation is below 18180.
bear case: Bears in full control again. Below all ema and today they broke below the bear channel and markt held there. Very strong selling and we can expect more. Bears want to test the small bull trend line around 18300. If they break even that, it’s the next trend line around 18200. I do not expect bears to break below that and the triangle will probably play out more days before a big breakout to the downside.
Invalidation is above 18630.
short term: Overall bearish but neutral until 1h ema comes closer or a strong break below 18360. No need to rush into trades because of something you hope will happen. Let it happen and hop along.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. Currently +200, stop is 18500
trade of the day: Shorting against the 1h 20ema.
DAX H1 - Sell SignalDAX H1
We have just shifted up our short tool here, yesterday we were just a mere 5 or so points away from our black line, sell zone. We are really trying to catch that previous area of resistance and supply price that sits around 18640 price. We are still looking to try and execute something on that basis.
Eyes peeled, we will follow along with this one today and see what we can fathom.
2024-07-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax/oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Trading range price action. Elevator up and stairs down today. Helps no one and we have to wait for tomorrow for a clear direction. Market is oscillating around the 1h and the daily 20ema. Fade the extremes until clear breakout.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18580 - 18800
bull case: Bulls tried again at 18800 and only got a lower high below it. They bought 18600 and until that range breaks, it’s neutral.
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Either bears print below 18600 or step aside for another lower high below 18700. Until then, bulls will continue to btfd.
Invalidation is above 18830.
short term: Bullish around 18600 for trade back to at least 18680. Stop has to be 18570 for any long.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000.
trade of the day: Strong small pullback bull trend since EU open and market could not touch the 2m 20ema for 130 points. Market also reversed just as hard but a bit slower couple of minutes after the high. Had to be quick to exit longs once bar 36 traded below 35 without any pullback. Bulls quickly gave up above 18780.
Decline RetracedWe've reached the 38 % retracement of the June decline, My bearish bias thus has been confirmed.
As this retracement level has been a support/resistance level since the beginning of April I expect it to hold this time as well.
ger 40 bearish the indice is going for a short term sell. the buyers momentum has lost its power. most traders are taking profits at this point but its going to start buying at 17.700.0
sl at 18.633.2 and tp at 17,700
this is a great opportunity for those who like to whole trade for long period of time as will get a chance to increase their positions for the long run.
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Weekly Technical AnaylsisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 is pushing the upper boundary of its sideways trend, having broken out of a tight sideways consolidation, with the price increasing to 18,556.1, now above the VWAP of 18,229.9. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 17,931.4 and 18,555.4, respectively. The RSI has increased to 59, indicating rising momentum.
UK 100 remains in a neutral sideways trend, with the price stuck in the middle of a tight range, just above the VWAP of 8202. Support has adjusted to 8,122.6, while resistance has increased to 8,283.1. The RSI is at 51.27, reflecting a lack of momentum in either direction.
Wall Street has entered a new bullish trend but remains below the May peak, with the price recently increasing to 39,390, now above the VWAP of 39,138.7. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 38,759.4 and 39,388.0, respectively. The RSI has increased to 60.87, signalling a slight decrease in bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
Brent Crude remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase albeit with a downturn in the last few days to just above the VWAP of 8,323. Support has adjusted higher to 8,323.28, while resistance has increased to 8,729.57. The RSI has turned lower to 55.70, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum.
Gold remains in a sideways trend but has just broken the June peak, with the price recently increasing to 2,372, now around the previous VWAP of 2,338. Support has adjusted higher to 2,288.88, while resistance has increased to 2,389.04. The RSI has gotten stronger to 58.12, indicating the potential beginnings of a new period of higher momentum.
EUR/USD has broken out from its previous downtrend but the new uptrend needs to take out the June high to be sustainable. It is now well above the VWAP of 1.0746. Support has adjusted higher to 1.06423, while resistance has increased to 1.08497. The RSI has increased to 60.67, indicating a reduction in bearish pressure.
GBP/USD remains officially in a neutral trend but the recent breakout suggests a new uptrend is emerging, with the price increasing to 1.28252, well above the VWAP of 1.27027. Support has adjusted upwards to 1.25666, and resistance has increased to 1.2825. The RSI has increased to 66.63, indicating fresh bullish momentum to sustain a possible new uptrend.
USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend and near multi-decade highs and remains within an impulsive phase above the VWAP, with the price near 160.930. Support has adjusted higher to 157.568, while resistance has increased to 162.476. The RSI has increased to 67.46, reflecting continually strong bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Friday I wrote on twitter that the highs are probably in and I will stand by that. Can I be wrong by another 100 points in the sp500? Sure but I doubt it. The patterns to sell down are aligning on the monthly, weekly and daily tf. The buying was more than climactic and we can see enough indicators pointing down or are already bad. Big institutions won’t jeopardize their whole trading year with overstaying in this bubble. The past 3 trading days formed a perfect bull trap and if bears can start the reverse early next week, we will see some acceleration downwards. As always, don’t blindly long/short anything. Wait for confirmation before you enter a trade.
dax: Big up, big down, bigger up. Interesting week but again, nasty reversal bar on Friday. I doubt bulls will buy this up again. The right shoulder here looks decent enough on the daily chart and market could drop 600 points from here. Confirmation for the bears is a print below 18500. If bulls are strong, they stay inside the wedge and trade back above 18800. 55/45 for the bears imo.
Quote from last week:
comment: Market was completely neutral past week. Let’s look at the weekly chart and what it tells us. 5 Week selloff and now 2 bull weeks and past week was as neutral as it gets. Tells us that the market is in balance and does not know where it will go next. We can draw multiple bad bear trend lines and all are valid until broken. Does not help with trading at this price. Since we have a decent bull support line from the April and June low, we know that the market is in a triangle and the middle is most likely around 18300. As long as market is coming back to that price, you buy low and sell high. Since market is also staying above the weekly 20ema, bears are not favored to suddenly break below it. It’s also trading below the daily 20ema and did not have a daily close above it for 12 trading days. It’s a trading range near the ath, where the market is compressing and will soon see a breakout.
comment: We got the breakout to the upside, then the downside and another upside breakout again. Clearly not the continuation of a strong bull trend but a leg inside the trading range. Friday’s bull bar is a bad buy going into next week, which raises the odds of market moving sideways to down. Two bull wedges on the daily chart and I slightly favor the bears to break to the downside at least to the daily ema 18460. Weekly tf gives head & shoulders vibe but as long as market is staying above the weekly 20ema at 18200, it’s neutral inside the given key level.
current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged
key levels: small range 18200 / 18800
bull case: Bulls want to stay inside the bull wedges and break above them to retest the ath 19006. They are making higher highs and higher lows and are above all important ema.
Invalidation is below 18540.
bear case: Only hope for bears was the decent sell off on Friday for a quick -249 points in 1h which denied the market a daily close above 18700 for 29 trading days. Left shoulder from March/April high was 18836 and Friday’s high was 18822. Close is always close enough. They also see the two bull wedges we have formed and want a break to the downside. Their first target is a retest of Friday’s low 18575 which is almost the open of last week to the tick. If they manage to break below 18540, their next target is the daily 20ema at 18470 and that’s also close to the 50% pb for this whole trading range.
Invalidation is a 1h close above 18800.
outlook last week:
short term: Can’t be anything but neutral again. Bears managed to stay below the daily 20ema but bulls bought the weekly 20ema. Trading range price action. Will get a breakout soon.
→ Last Sunday we traded 18417 and now we are at 18666. High of the week was 18822 and the low was 18190. Outlook was ok. Market closed 40ish points above the open of the week and we made new lows and new highs. Trading range price action, which is why I was and am neutral for this market.
short term: Neutral. Higher highs, lower lows. Expanding triangle, form of trading range. 50% pb is 18439 and if bulls do not rally strongly on Monday, I will look for weakness and a pullback to 18450 or lower.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged
current swing trade: Nothing
Chart update: Bear wave and trend line is gone and added bull wedges.
The German DAX Is About to RecoverReasons why we are bullish for the German DAX:
the sell-off is politically driven. Political stock markets are known to have short legs
the global market environment is clearly bullish
various technical indicators show clear bullish divergences
the DAX is showing clearer signs of bottoming out in the 18,000 point range
ANALYSIS DAX 05/07/2024DAX index with various technical indicators. Here’s a detailed analysis and a strategy for trading based on the information presented:
Key Components of the Chart
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price):
Weekly VWAP: The values shown are 18,292.03 (low), 18,608.91 (average), and 17,975.16 (high).
VWAP is a trading benchmark that gives the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price.
Volume Profile:
The gray bars on the left indicate the volume traded at different price levels.
Higher volume at specific price levels can indicate strong support or resistance zones.
Bollinger Bands:
These are the blue and green bands around the price action.
Bollinger Bands consist of a middle band (simple moving average) and two outer bands (standard deviations away from the middle band).
The bands expand and contract based on market volatility.
Candlestick Patterns:
The chart shows the price movement through candlesticks, which indicate the opening, closing, high, and low prices for each time period.
Horizontal Lines:
The orange line around the 18,450 level and the light blue lines around 17,900 and 18,600 levels indicate important support and resistance levels.
Technical Analysis
Trend Analysis:
The DAX index is in an uptrend, as evidenced by the series of higher highs and higher lows.
The price is trading above the weekly VWAP, indicating bullish momentum.
Support and Resistance:
Immediate resistance is around the 18,453.24 level (current price).
Significant support levels are at 18,000 and 17,800.
Bollinger Bands:
The price is currently near the upper Bollinger Band, which could indicate overbought conditions. This suggests a potential pullback or consolidation in the near term.
Volume Profile:
High volume nodes around the 18,000 to 18,500 range suggest strong buying interest and potential support if the price pulls back.
Market Sentiment:
The consistent uptrend and position above the VWAP suggest bullish market sentiment. However, traders should watch for signs of reversal or consolidation near resistance levels.
Strategy for Buying and Selling DAX
Entry (Buy) Strategy
Support Levels:
Buy on Pullbacks to Support: Look for buying opportunities when the price pulls back to the support levels at 18,000 or 17,800. Confirm the support with a bounce or bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing).
VWAP:
Buy Above VWAP: Consider buying when the price is trading above the weekly VWAP (18,608.91) as it indicates bullish momentum.
Volume Confirmation:
High Volume on Pullbacks: Ensure there is significant volume when the price approaches support levels, indicating strong buying interest.
Bollinger Bands:
Buy Near Lower Bollinger Band: If the price touches or approaches the lower Bollinger Band, it can indicate the price is oversold and might reverse.
Exit (Sell) Strategy
Resistance Levels:
Sell at Resistance: Look to take profits near the resistance level at 18,453.24. If the price struggles to break this level, it may reverse.
VWAP:
Sell Below VWAP: If the price drops below the weekly VWAP, it can indicate a shift to bearish momentum. Consider selling if this happens.
Volume Confirmation:
High Volume on Rallies: Ensure there is significant volume when the price approaches resistance levels, indicating strong selling interest.
Bollinger Bands:
Sell Near Upper Bollinger Band: If the price touches or approaches the upper Bollinger Band, it can indicate the price is overbought and might reverse.
Risk Management
Stop-Loss Placement:
Below Support for Longs: Place stop-loss orders slightly below the identified support levels (e.g., below 17,800 if buying at 18,000) to limit potential losses.
Above Resistance for Shorts: If shorting, place stop-loss orders slightly above the identified resistance levels.
Position Sizing:
Use Appropriate Position Size: Calculate your position size based on your risk tolerance and the distance to your stop-loss. Ensure you're not risking more than a small percentage (e.g., 1-2%) of your trading capital on a single trade.
Trailing Stop:
Protect Profits with Trailing Stop: Use a trailing stop to lock in profits as the price moves in your favor. This allows you to capture more gains if the trend continues while protecting against sudden reversals.
Example Trade Plan
Entry: Buy at 18,000 with confirmation of support.
Stop-Loss: Place stop-loss at 17,700.
Take Profit: Set initial take profit at 18,453.24.
Trailing Stop: Implement a trailing stop of 100 points to capture additional gains if the price continues to rise.
This strategy leverages support and resistance levels, VWAP, and Bollinger Bands to identify optimal buy and sell points while incorporating sound risk management practices. Always adjust your strategy based on real-time market conditions and additional technical or fundamental analysis.
German40Broke previous high from the h4 triangle...
Price has formed a bullish continuation pattern above resistance...
We have a small bullish flag on m5
2024-07-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax
comment: Uneventful trading was expect, since US holidays mostly go sideways in a tight trading range. Market had a good spike at the open which had to be faded and that was the trade of the day. Other than that, market is oscillating around 18600, which is 25 points above the open of the week/month. It’s do or die for both sides here. If bulls can break above 18630, 18900 comes in play. If bears win it, we could have a nasty reversal and will be on our way to 18000 again. I still think the bears trend line could be in play, if bears trade below it early tomorrow. If not, successful breakout above and odds will favor the bulls.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 18200 - 18600
bull case: Bulls want to break above 18600 and out of the triangle. If they manage that, bears will likely give up and market is free to trade 18800 or 19000 again. —unchanged
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Bears need to prevent prices above 18630 and break outside of this tight bull wedge. Dax is in a trading range for 6 months and betting on a continuation of it, is far more profitable in the long run than betting on breakouts. R:R here is on the bears side but I would not think about shorts above 18500. So bears see an expanding triangle, a bigger triangle and a small bull trend that already had 3 pushes up. If they can’t turn it here, we will probably melt to 19000 like nasdaq did today. Since we are currently seeing a funny rotation between the markets, absolutely possible that liquidity will be shoved into Dax tomorrow for a breakout.
Update: Since text above is still valid, I did not change it.
Invalidation is above 18630.
short term: Can’t be bearish after 2 strong bull days but I sure won’t be bullish at multiple resistances. I wait for strong buying/selling and follow the market. Can absolutely see this breaking to either side tomorrow. What I don’t expect is market to stall above 18500. Either down or up. —unchanged
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Just don’t trade on these days unless you are 9/10 days in tight trading ranges profitable.
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Thank you and I wish your trading to be profitable.
German40Price hit its main support
Formed a bullish reversal pattern
Broke and retested the bullish reversal pattern to the upside...now price has to fill in previous trend highs one by one till it hits it's previous HOD....
I'm looking forward to targets as such as 19250.00 for this cfd
Buy the dip on EU sharesDue to geopolitical and political uncertanties, we have seen declines EU stock market the last weeks. I think this could be a good place to start buying again for the longer run.
2024-07-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax
comment: Globex was the low of the day and bulls just bought relentlessly since the EU open. 3 doji bear bars on the 1h chart today will make follow through likely but we are again at the bear trend line in this big triangle and that line held 4 times now. Betting on a breakout is a losing strategy. Wait for it to happen and follow the market.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 18200 - 18600
bull case: Bulls want to break above 18600 and out of the triangle. If they manage that, bears will likely give up and market is free to trade 18800 or 19000 again.
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Bears need to prevent prices above 18630 and break outside of this tight bull wedge. Dax is in a trading range for 6 months and betting on a continuation of it, is far more profitable in the long run than betting on breakouts. R:R here is on the bears side but I would not think about shorts above 18500. So bears see an expanding triangle, a bigger triangle and a small bull trend that already had 3 pushes up. If they can’t turn it here, we will probably melt to 19000 like nasdaq did today. Since we are currently seeing a funny rotation between the markets, absolutely possible that liquidity will be shoved into Dax tomorrow for a breakout.
Invalidation is above 18630.
short term: Can’t be bearish after 2 strong bull days but I sure won’t be bullish at multiple resistances. I wait for strong buying/selling and follow the market. Can absolutely see this breaking to either side tomorrow. What I don’t expect is market to stall above 18500. Either down or up.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long anywhere. Watch higher time frames because they left no doubt today. I made that mistake and could not get myself into longs. Bad trading on my end.
GER40 pull back?The private sector economy it's rising so we expect the pullback on the market before it rally's again
Bullish rise?DE40 has bounced off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could potentially rise to the 1sr resistance.
Pivot: 18,044.34
1st Support: 17,951.32
1st Resistance: 18,271.05
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2024-07-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes - SP500 and Nasdaq had bull trends from the open and almost went up in one straight line on higher time frames. Both produced lower highs but given the strength of today, we can expect some follow through tomorrow. If bears somehow manage to reverse here and keep the lower highs, there is no reason why we can’t reverse to the lows of the week again. Market is all still inside their trading ranges and most breakout attempts fail.
Commodities - Gold is again not worthy to be written about. Oil touched the bear trend line today on relentless buying but market gave back around 150 points afterwards. All of my bullish targets are met here and market could very well begin forming a top here before trading lower again.
Bitcoin turned exactly where it had to and where my painting showed it would. There is a tiny bull trend line around 61500 and if that is broken, we will see 58000 or lower again. For the slight possibility that bulls turn this around again and stay inside the bull channel, they would have to break the bear trend line above 63000, which would then open up the road to 65000 again but I think this is very low probability.
dax
comment: 18300 is the most important price for dax for many days now. Today we sold off but market grinded higher to the 50% pb and that is around 18300. We have a decent bear channel which could hold and a third leg down would bring us to 18000 again. It’s still a trading range and a bigger third leg is lower probability. Markets usually have two legs inside ranges, so we could turn up from here to 18500 again. Neutral is the name of the game.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18000 - 18600
bull case: Bulls need to break outside of the bear expanding triangle and their first target above is today’s open pricea t 18419. If they could do that, they will probably get to 18500 again. For now I think bulls are not good and they don’t have many arguments on their side.
Invalidation is below 18180.
bear case: Strong selling by the bears since EU open and market could not trade above the 1h ema the whole day. They want follow through tomorrow and keep the bear expanding triangle alive. Their targets below are 18100 which is where the bigger triangle bull trend line is. I don’t see them breaking it but if they do, obvious target below is 18000.
Invalidation is above 18400.
short term: Neutral between 18300 - 18370. Bearish below and bullish above (if bulls can break outside of the exp triangle).
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Short since Globex or from the EU open. Low of last week was 18221 so a good place to look to take profits or exit shorts. Market turned at 18190.
