DE30 trade ideas
DE30 DAX Technical AnalysisWhen the DAX 4-hour chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue in an upward trend. As long as the index price does not break down the 18292 support level, it is evaluated that the price movements above the 18701 level can exceed the 18971 level and target the 20021 level.
#202436 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
4th consecutive bull bar closing on it’s high. Low volume but who cares. Can only be bullish on this price action. Futures are close to the ath while xetra already made a new ath. 19000 on xetra will most likely be hit next week. Will bears come around there to trap late bulls? Maybe but I would not bet on that. R:R (risk:reward) is on the bear side here but it’s too early to short. Could even go up to 19200 before turning.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls went mostly sideways until Friday which means that bears are still not doing much. Friday produced another breakout for W5, where my target is still 18800ish. Low probability the bear trend line from the ath will hold again. If bulls can get this above 18800, there is no reason to not print a new ath. Bears would need consecutive bear bars below 18500 to stop it. Bulls should not have the illusion that this is something other than a short squeeze. This is not buying on higher volume due to more market participants wanting in on the next bull run to 30000. This will crumble soon enough but for now it’s only going up and you should never fight the trend.
comment : Bulls printed a new ath and if you would look at the RSI, which I don’t, it would show a divergence. You really really don’t need the RSI to tell you that. Even so, market could go higher and there is no reason to short this yet. I am 90% certain this is not a W1 of a new bull trend that will break above the bull wedge but rather a retest of the highs, in this case a higher high, and it will reverse soon enough. A bigger pullback is overdue but that does not mean you can short this yet.
current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. Will reverse soon.
key levels: 17000 - 19000
bull case: Bulls closed the month at the highs while making a new ath. It’s a buy signal but the move is so climactic without any pullbacks, that most bulls will probably get out on a decent bear bar. The first pullback will most likely fail and it will probably be a decent buying opportunity but buying 18900 right now is bad any way you look at it. What upside do you expect? Strong breakout above 19200? Where do you put your stop? The whole move up happened above the 1h 20ema. So if bears finally break it and trade consecutive bear bars below, bulls might start thinking about taking profits.
Invalidation is below 18750.
bear case: As mentioned above, 1h ema held for 3 weeks now. Only objective for the bears is to stop the market from making higher highs and breaking below the 1h ema. 19000 is the best area for them to achieve that. If they don’t come around on Monday, we might es well see 19200 or higher.
Invalidation is above 19050.
outlook last week:
short term: Absolutely neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion.
→ Last Sunday we traded 18633 and now we are at 18906. Neutral was wrong again since bears touched the 1h ema once last week and that was on Monday. 1h on xetra and on futures you’d have to take the 2h 20ema.
short term: Neutral again. I’m confident we will reverse soon but it’s too early to be looking for shorts. Bears need to start making lower lows and lower highs before I start. What do I need to go long? Only scalps after pullbacks for me. Very little interest in buying up here because I do not see this going to 19200.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: Nope. Not yet.
chart update: Nothing. Bull wedge is still valid.
GER 30Weekly predictionFX:GER30
The DAX index has returned to the upper limit of the range. Here we will wait for the development of the price movement behavior.
$DAX Weekly Analysis
On the weekly timeframe, We are looking at price action with three bullish soldiers. This indicates a strong move towards the bullish direction. Market structure also indicates a light move-up before a retest takes place.
On the daily, we may have tapped into ERL now expecting a quick sell to previous highs for a possible continuation to the upside
4H TF looks bland and consolidation-like... After Monday plays out we may see some intent with it.
01.09.24As we have seen price has been reaching new all time highs due since August sell of. What is pricing the charts is the announcement of cutting interest rates for the Economy.
What will be in focus this new coming month and week is Friday NFP prior to Wednesday JOLTs job opening and Thursdays Inital Jobless claims.
US30: US30 has jumped past Julys all time highs at 41414.72 and Monday highs at 41447.86. I'd like to see price pushing past 41604.04 this week.
GER40: Price seemed to sail smoothly to break previous all time highs at 18916.9 and has seemed to hault at the top of that range. I will like to see price push past 18972.2 during this week
Dax - 3 White Soldiers If we look at the Dax for early August, 2 bullish overlapping weekly candlestick formations are apparent
1. Morningstar - Firstly price HAMMERS's a low at 17,000 , wicking the 3rd Standard Deviation Channel. We then have an extended range bullish candle move near 2 standard deviations , to complete the Morningstar.
2. Three White Soldiers - this last bullish candle and the following 2 , together are 3 white candles with successive HH and HL. The second candle in this formation actually gaps the first with the weekly open, adding impetus to the bullish move.
The Dax is at ATH with a price of 18948.60. It is still within the 2nd Standard Deviation Channel, and room to move up. The weekly RSI is printing 62. It reflects a buy signal, and it is a long way from oversold.
The Daily Chart shows price has entered the Supply Zone with strong conviction. This is the 4th test of this Zone. A higher probability exists for selling pressure to have abated by now.
IF we look at the VSA, Volume in the uptrend has been Average . There is no blow off. Furthermore, the last daily candle was below average. The Bulls with little volume, were able to move price easily up through this zone ( no selling pressure).
With 9 bullish daily candlesticks in a row, there has to be some retracement. It is likely to be small, probably some form of multiple Doji, narrow range candles.
Client Sentiment has 84% of traders net short. They are likely backing this retracement. A contrarian view suggests the index will rise.
Technically , there is conviction for the Dax to rise
GER30GER30 has been going up for a while now, I am interested seeing it drop, but before it drops, I will be happy to see a small retracement up, thats where we will be executing trades, sniper entry or nothing, Lets Download Succes s
GET READY TO SHORT DAX/GER30 OR 40Good evening to everyone,
We have not seen a beautiful pricing like this for a while.
We found good opportunity once the price hit 18933 to short, with stop loss at 18977
Target 1 18889
Target 2 - 18819
Target 3 - 18761
Please note, once the price hit first target, take some partial profit, trail stop loss to 18937 then continue to focus on second target and so on.. any strong trend pull back then get out.
DE40- SHORT Trade Call - 4H SWINGOn 4h scale bearish divergence on RSI has formed indicating a likely trend reversal. On Daily TF price is kind of slowing down as well.
SWING Trade SHORT (Sell) values :
Entry : 18710
SL: 18980
TP1: 18440
TP2: 18180
TP3: 17920
CRT + Liquidity Sweep on the DAXLet's make Money!!!
Trade responsibly and apply proper risk management. Happy Weekend
Short GER40price marking a bearsih divergence and break their last HL
Entry Point :18882
Stoploss : 18936
TP1 18828
TP2 18774
TP3 18720
TP4 18666
DAX H4 | Strong bullish momentumDAX (GER30) is looking to make a bullish break above a swing-high resistance and could potentially rise higher from here.
Buy entry is at 18,855.31 (wait for the 1-hour candle to close above this level for confirmation).
Stop loss is at 18,700.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support.
Take profit is at 19,008.06 which is a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level.
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DAX ahead of a mega 1W Bullish Cross.Last month (July 15, see chart below), we made a bold Megaphone prediction on DAX (FDAX1!), which delivered both an excellent sell opportunity and a bottom buy entry:
The situation now is more difficult as despite DAX's recovery, the U.S. markets are under a certain degree of volatility. We need to zoom out to the 1W time-frame to answer that and get a better understanding of the long-term trend.
The key development will be the upcoming formation of a 1W MACD Bullish Cross. It will be the first since November 20 2023, which was in fact the last time the index hit and rebounded on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), forming the previous Higher Low of the 2-year Channel Up.
As a result, having already tested and rebounded earlier this month on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 9 months, we believe that the current 4-week green rally will be extended.
The last two Bullish Legs of the Channel Up initially rose by +16.74% and +23.84% before their first corrective pull-back. As a result, our Target on the medium-term is 19800 (+16.74% rise from the recent bottom).
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SHORTING DAX40.GER 40Team shorting DAX40 hurry,
We are expecting a little reversal for DAX
stop loss at 18926
target at 18810 and 18786
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Will the DAX index break its historical ceiling?According to the resistance of this index in the area of 18915, after the failure, it can be expected to climb up to the range of 19000. Otherwise, after the failure of its dynamic support in the range of 18732, this index can be expected to drop to the range of 18668 and in case of strength to the range of 18605.
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
NOTE: These charts use the ‘Pro Trading Tools’ available on the SpreadEx trading platform. To use them, log in to your SpreadEx Financials Account and click ‘Technical’ from the menu on any chart.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Despite the strong rally over the past two weeks, Germany 40 is still in a broader neutral trend and consolidating the huge drawdown prior to the rally. The price has risen to 18,572, which is now above the previous VWAP of 17,872. Support has been adjusted upward to 16,989, while resistance is slightly higher at 18,755. The RSI has increased to 61, indicating stronger bullish momentum.
UK 100 too remains in a neutral trend and continues in its consolidation phase. The price has moved up to 8,330, now above the VWAP of 8,185. Support remains at 7,993, and resistance has adjusted to 8,378. The RSI has risen to 56, reflecting an increase in bullish momentum.
Wall Street is testing record highs but like the other indices has maintained its neutral trend and stays in a consolidation phase. The change of trend will be confirmed once the VWAP points higher and likely accompanied by a break to new highs. The price has advanced to 41,184, surpassing the VWAP of 39,838. Support has increased to 38,156, with resistance now at 41,519. The RSI has climbed to 65.
Brent Crude continues its bearish trend, remaining in a corrective phase after the last swing lower produced a ‘higher low’. The price has slightly decreased to 78.81, closely aligned with the VWAP of 78.74. Support is now lower at 75.17, while resistance has increased to 81.50 - reflecting the wider trading range and slowing downwards momentum. The RSI remains steady at 48.
Gold has shifted right back into a bullish trend and is an impulsive phase at record highs. The price has surged to 2,515, above the VWAP of 2,463. Support has been raised to 2,373, while resistance has increased to 2,552. The RSI has climbed to 63, reflecting continued strong bullish momentum.
EUR/USD continues in its bullish trend, remaining in an impulsive phase, hugging the upper VWAP 2 Std deviations line. The price has increased further to 1.1178, well above the VWAP of 1.1016. Support is slightly lower at 1.0810, with resistance adjusted upward to 1.1223. The RSI has risen to 71, signalling strong bullish momentum.
GBP/USD has been the biggest winner of last week, making a strong shift back to a bullish trend and remains in an impulsive phase. The price has rallied up to 1.3195, now above the VWAP of 1.2903. Support has adjusted higher to 1.2551, with resistance now at 1.3255. The RSI has increased to 74, showing strong bullish momentum.
USD/JPY continues in its bearish trend, remaining in an impulsive phase. The price has decreased to 143.78, still below the VWAP of 146.26. Support has adjusted slightly to 143.50, while resistance remains elevated at 149.20. The RSI has stayed low at 31, indicating continued strong bearish pressure.
