Thursday Analysis - DXY/EURUSD - 21st NovemberBreakdown and analysis for Thursday, breakdown the Dollar momentum, EURUSD and GER30 - Looks like a bearish bias for EU today inline with Strength on the Dollar.
DE30 trade ideas
DAX / GER40 TODAYDAX / GER40 TODAY is still sell.
I expect new low today and more.
Structure is very clear
GER40 Short term short biasWe see short order flow on the daily timeframe, with a liquidity sweep and imbalance coverage, aiming for daily fractal targets below. The hourly timeframe isn't aligned yet, so we need to wait for a break on the hourly to confirm this idea.
GER40 Likely Short at the order blockGER40 is currently consolidating near resistance at 19250, with signs of weakening bullish momentum. A pullback to 19100 - 18950 could offer buying opportunities, while failure to break above resistance at 19250 may provide shorting opportunities.
GER40 Trade LogGER40 Short
Setup: Short position
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2
Risk per trade: 1% of account
Entry: 50% level of the 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Stop-Loss: Above FVG upper boundary
Take-Profit: 2x the distance of the stop-loss below entry point
#202446 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra: Neutral. Market dipped below previous support bears could not close at the lows and market reversed to trade back above the big number 19000. Bears had a great setup with the head & shoulders and it failed. If bulls can get above 19350 again, many bears will probably give up and only try again above 19500. Daily close below 19000 will probably be the death signal for prices above and we go down to 18000. I still don’t know if we print 18000 before 20000 but I do think we will see both prices this year.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bears failed at 19000 which keeps 20000 alive and it’s more likely that we continue sideways than a break to the downside. Above 19600 I would favor the bulls to get it to a new ath and potentially to 20000. Wednesday was the most important day last week and I would join either side above or below that bar. Otherwise there is currently no deeper meaning of this trading range near the ath.
comment : Another week where I can’t make up new stuff. Bears dipped below 19000 and again but could not close below it even once. Market is in balance around 19200-19300 and until we have a daily close below 19000 or above 19400, we will continue to oscillate around that range. It’s maybe slightly more bearish because we have closed 4 consecutive days below the daily 20ema.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18800 - 20000
bull case: Bulls kept the market above 19000 but they fail too much against 19300. If the market can’t close above 19300 early next week, I think many bulls could give up on the chase for higher prices. Bulls do not have many arguments as of now, besides keeping it above 19000.
Invalidation is a daily close below 19000.
bear case: Bears are reasonably strong to prevent higher prices but since they can not close below 19000, we are moving sideways inside the range. I have no idea which side will show strength first next week. I do think it’s 50/50 for both sides and I would only join if it’s clear who is in control again. As a bear, I don’t think one can hold short if market goes above 19300 again.
Invalidation is above 19300.
outlook last week:
short term : Neutral 19000 - 19700, bullish above for 20000. I do think the triangle could play out some more and I am currently more willing to buy below 19200 than to short 19600.
→ Last Sunday we traded 19215 and now we are at 19210. 5 points on the week. Outlooks do not get any better.
short term: Neutral 19000 - 19300, bullish above for 19600 or higher. Daily close below 19000 is worst case for bulls because there is no more support until 18200.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Highlighted the bull flag but nothing else.
Ger30 bullish Bullish engulfer on support of a daily timeframe
Bullish engulfer on support of H4 timeframe
Bullish evening star on support Of H1 timeframe
RSI bullish from H4 to H1 timeframe
Downward pressureAfter intially bouncing from the 19000 barrier yesterday, the index pushed upward but the momentum was not strong enough leading to price action declining further down. As price action developed, it broke 19000 and now seems to be stabilising below this mark. As long as price is below 19000, the Dax is in search of support.
DAX GER30 bearishH&S formation triggered, and the major support is currently broken, expect a check back to it around 19050, before a major downside to 18500
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Bullish momentum The index is still ranging within a bigger structure and will likely retest the above resistance barriers since the bearish pressure has subsided.
4-hr Germany 40: Increased Buying Activity From last week's swing low, down to 19 000, Germany 40 is enjoying a lot of buying activity. On the 4hr chart a Golden Cross is about to get completed with the 20 period MA breaking above the 60 period MA. If the price holds above 19 278 (38% Fib) the upward momentum could extend higher.
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 remains bullish but is still in a correction phase, trading at 19,449, just above the VWAP (20) level of 19,343 after trading below it most of last week. Support sits at 19,020, with resistance at 19,666. The RSI is at 54, indicating moderate momentum as the index navigates its corrective move within a broader uptrend.
The UK 100 index holds a neutral trend with increased potential for a breakdown. There is notable underperformance vs other global indices. The price at 8,128 is slightly below the VWAP (20) of 8,212. Support is positioned at 8,049, and resistance at 8,374. An RSI of 40 reflects sluggish conditions, as the index tests key levels within its range.
Wall Street is in a bullish, impulsive phase, reaching 44,127- a record high and well above the VWAP (20) of 42,588. Support is at 40,971, while resistance is nearby at 44,120. The RSI at 70 shows strong momentum, nearing overbought conditions, signalling caution for further gains in the short term.
Brent Crude remains neutral in consolidation broadly between the 7000 and 8000 levels, trading at 7309, below the VWAP (20) of 7372. Support is at 7111, with resistance at 7633. The RSI of 45 suggests soft but stable momentum, as the commodity remains within its range-bound state.
Gold continues to exhibit bullish behaviour overall but has entered a sharp correction - its largest in a number of weeks. It’s priced at 2,666, below the VWAP (20) of 2,726 and testing the lower 2 period standard deviation of the VWAP (Support) at 2,660, with resistance at 2,790. An RSI of 43 reflects new bearish sentiment, with a drop below 50 not seen in months.
EUR/USD remains in a bearish, impulsive trend coming off the back of a massive 300 pip 1-day decline last week and currently trading at 1.0679, below the VWAP (20) of 1.0813. Support is nearby at 1.0685, with resistance up at 1.0941. The RSI at 34 indicates downward pressure, suggesting limited bullish attempts to reverse the trend.
GBP/USD is neutral in a consolidation phase with a bearish bias at 1.2897, just under the VWAP (20) of 1.2961. Support sits at 1.2868, and resistance at 1.3054. With an RSI of 42, the pair shows mild bearish momentum within its consolidation phase.
USD/JPY holds a bullish, impulsive phase, trading at 153.62, above the VWAP (20) of 152.31. Support is set at 150.09, while resistance lies at 154.52. The RSI at 60 reflects continued bullish momentum within its uptrend, and still some way off overbought levels.
11.11.24This week, investors will focus on October’s CPI data, expected to show a 2.4% annual increase, as they assess the inflationary impact of President-elect Trump's policies. Market attention will also be on comments from several Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, for clues on future rate cuts amid shifting economic conditions.
US30: Once October lows were captured price rallied as it has done in past election days into /Octobers highs. I still see price passing 44180.64 for this week but to see if the markets can continue to rally I'd like to see how US30 reacts to upcoming data and news.
GER40: Price traded as an inside candle week not really finding momentum in any direction, I feel price will reach 19679.3 first I will eye price passing 19565.0.
Mo 2024 11 11 - LongStats Day:
** 08:00 H4 double color, - Long
Stats Week:
** Mid Month Turn,
** US CPI: 14:30,
** Fri Expiry 13:00,
** Mon Morning rule - pending,
** Tue return to W1 trend and not a W1 trend change - pending,
Stats Month:
** Mid Nov end,
Stats Year:
** US Election,
||| Trade Taken |||
Trade Taken:
** Time frame:
* H4
** Time:
* 08am,
Set-Up:
** Trigger for trade:
* 8am H4 double color Long,
* m45 close outside m45 BB Long/Short
Risk Reward:
** Risk:
* Initial Turn,
** Target:
* R 1:1 as range,
Bullish momentum The index is still ranging within a bigger structure and will likely retest the above resistance barriers since the bearish pressure has subsided.
DAX30 ANALYSIS IN MONGOLIANMake market easier to read. Volume and Liquidity analysis on dax30
SINKorSWIM
DAX40The daily trend for the market is bullish overall, showing an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows, though currently in a consolidation phase. Key support is around 19,100 - 19,200, suggesting possible accumulation, while resistance near 19,400 - 19,500 could act as a rejection zone. In contrast, the hourly trend has a bearish bias, with recent downtrend movement indicating a pullback within the broader daily trend. If the price breaks above 19,400, this could align the hourly trend with the daily bullish outlook, while a breakdown below 19,100 would signal a potential reversal or deeper pullback in both timeframes.
Summary
Bullish Scenario: If the price respects the 19,150 demand zone and moves upward, consider long positions with targets near 19,400 - 19,500.
Bearish Scenario: If the price faces rejection around 19,400 and breaks below 19,150, consider short positions with a target around 19,000.
Buy to Sell The index is currently pulling back up, after falling off once it nibbled closely to a previous higher high. As price action develops, a bearish move would be favourable if price remains below the 19600-19400 resistance barriers. A break and rejection above the mentioned barriers might see further upward momentum. Rejection and stability under, 19600 may potential see further decline.
GER40 (DE40, DAX) SETUP !!Let's see how this one plays.
“The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading … I know this will sound like a cliche, but the single most important reason that people lose money in the financial markets is that they don’t cut their losses short.” — Victor Sperandeo
