DAX 40 Reacts Positively to ECB's Rate Cut DecisionDAX 40 Reacts Positively to ECB's Rate Cut Decision
Yesterday, the European Central Bank’s Governing Council cut the refinancing rate, as expected, from 4.25% to 3.65%.
The ECB also stated that monetary policy would remain sufficiently restrictive "for as long as necessary" to ensure inflation returns to its medium-term target of 2%.
Financial markets responded with:
→ A strengthening of the euro. EUR/USD rose by more than 0.5% after the rate cut announcement.
→ A rise in European stock market indices.
For example, Germany's DAX 40 index (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) received a bullish boost, which supports more optimistic conclusions in today's technical analysis:
→ Price movement fits within the ascending channel shown in blue.
→ The thickened line highlights that the median of the channel repeatedly acted as support before early August. As indicated by the arrow, it regained this role after the sharp decline on 5 August.
→ The linear regression channel (shown in purple) points to upward momentum.
Investors may feel optimistic, expecting that this autumn demand forces could lift the DAX 40 (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) towards the upper boundary of the channel.
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DE40 trade ideas
SHORT DAX40 at the current market price Team we are shorting the at the current price of 18556, you can use stop loss at 18613 or 18684
Target 1 at 18511.2
target 2 at 18422
target 3 at 18383
Please note: once the price hit the first target at 18511.1 take 50-60% volume
trail your stop loss to 18613. There will be a consolidated period between 18480-18555, so please be aware
"DAX Index Rises Ahead of ECB Meeting"In the U.S., the consumer price index increased by 0.2% in August, while the annual rise was 2.5%, aligning with forecasts. Following the drop in inflation, the likelihood of the Fed implementing a 25 basis point rate cut next week has risen to 85%. After this data release, market risk appetite increased, leading to intensified buying activity in the DAX index.
Today, there is an expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.
Technically, on the upside if the price holds above the 18,500 resistance, buying could push the index first toward the 18,700 resistance and then to 18,900. if the 18,500 level is broken to the downside, a pullback could extend first to the 18,285 support and then to 18.075.
German index, what to expect next? In my previous analysis, I projected a reversal in GER40, expecting a corrective move toward the daily Fair Value Gap (DFVG) in the 18,000-18,200 range. Over the past week, the price has nearly reached this target. Looking ahead, I see two potential scenarios:
1. **Further Decline:** The price may continue to move lower, targeting the 1-hour FVG, which is also visible on the 4-hour, daily, and weekly timeframes.
2. **Rebalance and Retest:** A minor drop to the Previous Day's Low (PDL) could lead to a rebound, with a likely rebalancing toward the premium levels early next week (Monday-Thursday). This would include a retest of the Buy-to-Sell (BTS) zone and potentially the 4-hour bearish Order Block (OB), followed by more aggressive selling down to the 18,000-18,200 range.
Once this zone is reached, I'll be monitoring for a potential bounce, which I will detail in my next update.
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis Expects DAX to Turn Higher SoonShort Term Elliott Wave view on DAX suggests that the Index is correcting cycle from 8.5.2024 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes higher. The pullback on 8.5.2024 towards 17024.6 ended wave ((4)). The Index has turned higher in wave ((5)) with internal subdivision as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((4)), wave ((i)) ended at 17505.23 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 17233.07. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 17666.82 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 17439.87. Wave ((v)) higher ended at 18920.1 which completed wave 1 in higher degree. Dips in wave 2 ended at 17669.64.
Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 17921.99 and wave ((ii)) ended at 17827.08. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 18344.22 and wave ((iv)) ended at 18240.17. Wave ((v)) higher ended at 18495.28 which completed wave 3 in higher degree. Pullback in wave 4 ended at 18349.98. Final leg wave 5 ended at 18990.78 which completed wave (1) in higher degree. Wave (2) pullback is in progress to correct cycle from 8.5.2024 low as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (1), wave W ended at 18414.13 and wave X ended at 18607.79. Expect wave Y to extend lower to correct cycle from 8.5.2024 low in 7 swing towards 17659.1 – 18018.6 area before it turns higher. As far as pivot at 17024.62 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
DAX SHORTThe DAX, Germany's leading stock market index, is experiencing a downturn due to several factors. Global economic uncertainty, inflation concerns, and fears of higher interest rates are weighing on investor sentiment. Additionally, weaker-than-expected corporate earnings reports, especially from key sectors like automotive and manufacturing, have further contributed to the decline. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy supply issues in Europe, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are also playing a significant role. As investor confidence falters, the DAX continues to face pressure, signaling potential challenges ahead for the German economy and its broader market outlook.
Anyway, now SHORT.
The DAX index is correcting or changing the trend?Considering its dynamic resistance in the range of 18380, after breaking this area, we can expect the index to rise to the range of 18500 and 18605. Otherwise, after breaking its current support in the one-hour time frame in the 18190 range After the failure of this area, it can be expected to continue its descent to the range of 18071 and in case of strength to the bottom of the channel, i.e. the range of 17968
Dax for 18 K - Inverted Cup and Handle Dax is in a downtrend after rejection from 19K .
Price can be seen to be in the midst of forming and Inverted Cup and Handle structure, with resistance offered by Fan 2.
The Inverted Cup and Handle, if formed, suggests continuation of the downtrend.
The likely target is at 18 K. Here , structure can act as resistance. It is confluent to the Fibonacci .50 level.
The RSI printing in the Sell Zone.
The Bias at present is short.
Riding the Bull: My Probability-Based Approach to Trading GER30The German DAX (GER30) is showing promising signs for potential upside movement, supported by several key fundamental factors:
1. European Central Bank's accommodative stance
2. Improving economic indicators in the Eurozone
3. Strong performance of German export-oriented companies
4. Increasing investor confidence in the European market recovery
To capitalize on this bullish outlook, I'm employing a probability-based approach to enter long positions on GER30.
Take a look at these analyses to see the details behind this trade idea.
12M:
3D:
1H:
GER40 - Bearish TrendGER40 index is analysed on 4H chart with resistance and support plotted on daily time frame. There was a bearish divergence on 4H chart after which the trend has become bearish. I used Fib to test the level of retracement and the pull back was healthy. No bullish divergence is observed and I have planned my entry at the LL.
The Signal is:
EP: 18215.26
SL: 18705.21
TP1: 17725.31
TP2: 17235.36
DAX Index Recovers Its Losses!Following the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll report, which came in below expectations, market risk appetite weakened. The DAX index also accelerated its decline, targeting the 18,257 support level. Expectations for a Fed rate cut have strengthened to 50 basis points, while the ECB is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points at its meeting this week.
Technically, if the 18,285 level is broken on the downside, a pullback could extend first to the 18,075 support and then to 17,920. On the upside, if the price holds above the 18,500 resistance, buying could push the index first towards the 18,700 resistance and then to 18,900.